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Player Match Ratings: No Fortress at Villa Park!
By John
Two home defeats in four days has been very, very hard to watch. The season is in tatters and all we have left for is to secure our safety. We currently have a 7-point cushion between the bottom three and ourselves but that gap will not last forever if our results do not start improving. Barnsley now have as many wins away from home this season as we have wins at home and away. Yesterday’s visitors are also thirteen points above us. They play as a team. We play as a bunch of individuals. They wanted to prove something to the players they recently sold to us in the same way that Brentford and Forest did. Our visitors started strongly but we then started to create chances and look the better team before referee Eltringham intervened by awarding a dubious penalty. As a team that is short of confidence and belief that was the last thing we needed. Having conceded another, we then pulled a goal back just before half time. That should have provided us with a platform and a momentum to seek a win or at the very least a draw from this game in the second half. Sadly, we gave an inept second half performance and it was the visitors who got the crucial next goal that sealed the game for them with over half an hour of the match left. Had we pulled another goal back we could have pressed for a late equalizer but we instead surrendered meekly. Steve Bruce went back to four at the back for this one but our problems go beyond that. We do not play for each other as a team. Our new signings like other signings before them appear to have been swallowed up by the growing malaise that our club has been subject to over recent years. Players that have impressed and scored goals for fun at the clubs they were bought from see their form drop and their goals dry up when they join us. The boss has a much bigger job than he and we thought that he had when we went on that early “new manager bounce”. He has to turn this club around by the end of the season and install a positivity in the players we have that can make next season markedly different to this and the last one. We need to make a strong promotion challenge next season but that currently looks to be beyond us. My player ratings from a game that was frankly nothing other than an embarrassment are: Sam Johnstone – 5 – Guessed the right way but Armstrong’s firmly hit 25th minute penalty beat him. Bradshaw turned a 43rd minute cross just past his outstretched hand and into the corner of the net for their second. Got down to hold a 78th minute Moncur shot near the post. Alan Hutton – 5 – The last of a host of defenders to try to clear the ball out of the area on 58 minutes but only succeeded in finding Bradshaw who hit his second of the night. Headed a 67th minute Lansbury cross wide. James Chester - 6 – Solid enough. Nathan Baker – 6 – Our return to a back four was a return to his central pairing with Chester which is one of the few positives we have seen this season. Did well enough. Jordan Amavi – 5 – Made a welcome return to the first team. Started very well but he was unable to maintain that high level of performance throughout the game. Harshly adjudged to have brought down Watkins inside the area to concede the penalty that gave them their opener and needed to try to get closer to Yiadom when he crossed for their second. Albert Adomah – 5 – His fierce 15th minute shot from outside of the box was tipped over the bar by Davies. Lifted an 84th minute shot well over the bar. Conor Hourihane – 5 – Headed the ball into the arms of Davies on 32 minutes from around 8 yards. This was still some way below the form and influence on games that he had shown when he was with the visitors. Henri Lansbury - 6 – Had an 11th minute shot from inside the box saved by Davies and picked up the ball and hit a 21st minute shot that took a deflection before being gathered by Davies. Jack Grealish – 5 – Showed a couple of glimpses of the ability that he has but not for the first time this season let this game pass him by without looking unduly concerned that it was doing so. Jonathan Kodjia – 6 – MOTM – Hit a 26th minute shot from the edge of the box that went just wide of the far post before turning in Adomah’s 44th minute cross for our only goal. He then hit a 55th minute shot from the edge of the box a couple of feet wide of the post and made a decent run into the box 10 minutes later but his attempted cross was blocked and put out for a corner off Davies’ leg. Looked likely to give us a late consolation goal on the 90th minute but he lifted the ball onto the top of the net. Needs to look up for colleagues when making runs and to work on his relationship with Hogan. Scott Hogan – 5 – Headed a 13th minute Amavi cross a couple of feet wide of the far post. He makes some promising runs but was again starved of service. Substitutes: Birkir Bjarnason – 5 – Replaced Hutton on 73 minutes. Failed to make any impact following his introduction. Andre Green – 6 - Replaced Lansbury on 73 minutes and looked lively unlike others around him. Leandro Bacuna – Replaced Grealish on the 76th minute and was not on long enough and did not do enough to gather any rating. Up the Villa! John Lewis- 0 comments
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Formation and Players
The formations used are 4411, 3421, 433, 442, and 4231. The table below looks at the formations and Points per game, Average Passing Percentage, Average Possession Percentage, Total Number of Shots, Total Number of Shot on Target, Average of Shot on Target versus Total Shots, Total Goals Scored, and finally Average Goal Conversion versus Total Shots.
Bruce has persisted with the 4411 for most of the season, and as the stats show it hasn't been overly successful. The most successful formation has been 442 after Kodjia returned from injury. The formation often seen outdated was also very successful Leicester in the Champions season in the Premier League.
Fans may ask how a small alteration can affect the results so drastically. The average passing and possession percentages are very similar, but that is where the similarities end. The two important stats are the conversion of shots to goals and the number of points per game. At the present rate, the 4411 formation will have the team ending the season with 66 points that would leave the club in 10th place in last years standings. The 442 formation would have the club finish on 92 points that would have been an automatic promotion spot.
The formation has had an effect but so have players. Much as been mentioned about the numbers of Aston Villa have had this season, especially to key players. The table below shows the effect that Terry, Kodjia, and Grealish have had on results.
Captain Marvel John Terry has been missing for the last eight games, and during that time points per game have dropped from 1.63 to 1.50. Even though it isn't a massive difference, it is the difference between 7th and 9th in last years standing.
The clubs star forward from last season as missed all but six games this season due to injuries. The introduction to him into the team this season alongside Keinan Davis in a 442 formation took our average points per game to 2.13 versus 1.31 when he hasn't played. This is a difference between champions form or mid-table obscurity. Much as been said about Kodjai this season, he is selfish, and he hasn't been missed, the stats don't support that and he will continue to be missed until he returns from ankle surgery. Bruce has only tried the formation once since Kodija was injured against Fulham, and that was in a 2-1 defeat at home to Sheff Wed. This was the same game where Villa was stunned by a goal wonder goal in the first minute, and Terry left the field after 20 minutes through injury. With the shortage of forwards due to further injuries to Gabby and Hogan, Bruce has resorted to his less successful 4411 formation.
Before the season started, Bruce said he wanted to build the team around Grealish. An unfortunate kidney injury kept Grealish out of the first fifteen games. Since then, he has played six games as a substitute, and two games where he has started. Since is return to the team, Villa's points per game have dropped from 1.73 to 1.33. Bruce may need to rethink how he uses Grealish and see if he can use him in a 442 formation.
The most successful team (442)this season has been, Johnstone, Hutton, Taylor, Chester, Terry, Snodgrass, Adomah, Whelan, Hourihane, Kodija, and Davis. With a number of the players out injured, and some needing a rest maybe Bruce can use players such as Elphick, Jedinak, Grealish, Omonah, Elmo, and Hogan to fill some of the holes and move back to the succesful formation.
Injuries have played their part and seen a drop in points when key players are out. This may make Bruce look at his recruitment because no team is going to go through a season with just eleven players. He needs to make sure he has ready-made replacements.
In part 2 of this blog, I will the difference between the 4411 and 442 formations.
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What can Villa learn from last seasons automatic promotion achievers?
Martin Green is an experienced sports writer and tipster. He has covered the Championship for many years
Three early fixtures which could shape Villa’s season
It may seem obvious given that this is the season’s curtain raiser, however it offers much more than that. Hull were relegated from the Premier League despite a late battle under Marco Silva last season, playing some exciting football at some times. If Bruce’s men can make a statement, which they are currently with odds of 11/10 to do, against one of the relegated sides so early in the new season it will serve as a huge lift to the squad and fans while also putting a foot in the right direction in what is a rough opening run. The Tigers are under the guise of new manager Leonid Slutsky, a close friend of Chelsea owner Roman Abramovich, meaning they could well throw a few surprises on the hosts at Villa Park. However, should Terry & Co. manage to deal with such a side so early on, under the pressure of the home support, it could do wonders for the start of the season. Reading (A)
Bruce’s side should have one aim and one aim only this season, a return to the top flight. If they are to reach such heights, much like with their opponents on the opening day, they are going to have to topple the best. The Royals may have fallen in the play-offs last season, however, second only to promoted Brighton & Hove Albion they boasted the best home form in the league across the campaign, losing only twice (Chris Hughton’s side lost three). Jaap Stam’s men pose a formidable challenge, however, meeting them so early in the season before they have had time to settle in to a run of form at the Madejski Stadium is an opportunity too good to turn down. Should they pick up a result against the Tigers early on, and follow it up with a strong performance and result to match in Berkshire confidence should not be an issue for Bruce. Bristol City (A)
Early last season the Villans paid a visit to a Bristol City side who would spend most of the season battling the drop, only to blow a 1-0 lead and be sent packing 3-1 with their tails between their legs. Once again the two have been drawn against each other early in the season and, despite a change in management and a host of new players, there will undoubtedly be a desire to get one over on City. Not only would such a win bring the precious three points but it would also bring with it another boost in confidence.