Bollitics - Ireland, the Euro and the future of the EU

[CVByrne]

The Irish people did have a role to play in the whole mess. At the end of the day we voted the current government into power when we saw that things were looking a bit dodgy(previous Taoiseach being involved in tribunal's etc). We didn't say no when we saw the overspending that was going on in several different area's such as the banks and housing development. Irish people got greedy and thought that the boom would never end. The main reason so many people are in dire straits at the moment is because they went gung ho into an environment where the building trade was booming. People bought multiple houses, presuming that they would serve as pension funds for them when they grew old. We didnt question anything when it came to expenditure and surely you can see that is one of the main causes of the current crisis we are now in.

That's pretty spot on. People in negative equity who still have the same jobs should have no problem paying their mortgage, public sector are fine too, no compulsory job cuts, minimal wage cuts.

It's only the people who lost their jobs that have suffered real hardship that wasn't their own making. Which is 120,000 people in the past two years. So for all the bitching and moaning people do on tv, it's these people who are suffering, not anyone still in work. These people who are silent and unemployed.

[Lombardo]

People are angry but not angry enough to do much.

I see there's some doubt among members of the government about whether this will last:

rish ministers are so concerned over protests that austerity plans to cut chauffeur driven cars and police outriders have been shelved to protect the government amid heightened post-EU bail-out security...

...Cabinet ministers have warned Brian Cowen, the Irish Prime Minister, that unless he resigns quickly the government faces “terrible aggression and anger amongst the people”.

Of course you are going to get members of the government coming out saying that because at the end of the day, their jobs are on the line as well and they know that in the coming weeks/months, there will more than likely be an election where their local voters will not vote for them unless they are seen to be coming out against all that is bad in the country... In fairness, I have sympathy for Brian Cowen as he only inherited this whole mess. Bertie Ahern is the main culprit in all of this and by the looks of things he has got off scott free. Sitting comfortably on his big pension.

Irish people don't get aggressive really with things like this. As Conor said, it's only the crazy Sinn Fein nuts that will get a small bit heated. A good reason to never ever have them in government. Scum of the highest order.

[CVByrne]

peterms you don't live here so randomly quoting media is inaccurate.

The budget will 100% go through, what politicians are doing is covering their asses and already campaigning for the elections in january. The opposition want the government to put through the budget but want to look like they oppose it. They don't want to be the ones making these cuts.

Also as for acceptance of our fate. We all were greedy, down to a man. People didn't buy houses as somewhere to live they bought them to get on the "property ladder" and to "trade up". Yeah they were lied to by incompetent government and greedy bank boards.

But the country bought into the whole thing, you have to remember we were incredibly poor, we'd never had a boom busy situation. So at this stage people have stopped the ranting and raving and finger pointing to a degree and accept that to have a property bubble you need lots of people buying property and those people were us. Plain and simple.

[Meath_Villan]

Ya cant say brian cowen Inherited this mess the dude was minister of finance before hand

[Awol]

He may be a comedy hate figure for lefties on here, but I'd be interested to hear from anyone who still thinks the Euro is the future as to why this bloke's analysis is wrong.

[tonyh29]

Whilst I agree with what they are saying in principal regarding Europe , I find him and the other UKIP yesterday a tad rude and insulting to be honest .. and I'm not sure they really should be representing Britain

Daniel Hannan delivered similar speeches I seem to recall but with far more style and without the need to insult

[peterms]

peterms you don't live here so randomly quoting media is inaccurate.

The budget will 100% go through, what politicians are doing is covering their asses and already campaigning for the elections in january. The opposition want the government to put through the budget but want to look like they oppose it. They don't want to be the ones making these cuts.

Well, at the risk of randomly quoting the media despite not living there, I read here that Fine Gael have received assurances that the budget details are not seen by the EU as binding on them. Having sought and received that specific assurance, and publicised it, it would be very hard to disclaim responsibility for whatever budget exists should they win the election.

The thing is, they accept the same view as the current lot, and the discussion appears to be about detail rather than the bigger questions about default, withdrawal from the euro, whether the banks should be baled out and so on. And if that's the case, then the differences between the main policy positions which will be placed before the electorate will be trivial. Other arguments are being made, for example on Tonight with Vincent Brown (Sorry! More random quoting!), but they don't appear to be reflected in what the main parties are saying. Pity.

[peterms]

He may be a comedy hate figure for lefties on here, but I'd be interested to hear from anyone who still thinks the Euro is the future as to why this bloke's analysis is wrong.

Well, I don't think the euro is the future, so perhaps I shouldn't be answering, but I didn't detect much analysis, to be honest. Mostly knockabout stuff and namecalling. The others look like they want to slap him.

[mjmooney]

Euro or Pound, it doesn't matter which way you slice it, it's still capitalism.

[peterms]

Euro or Pound, it doesn't matter which way you slice it, it's still capitalism.

It makes a difference to the policy tools available to you to address problems, though.

[Awol]

He may be a comedy hate figure for lefties on here, but I'd be interested to hear from anyone who still thinks the Euro is the future as to why this bloke's analysis is wrong.

Well, I don't think the euro is the future, so perhaps I shouldn't be answering, but I didn't detect much analysis, to be honest.

You're right analysis is the wrong word. I should have said narrative, and rude or not his comments are absolutely spot on imo.

[Awol]

Poll added, I've gone for Easter 2011.

EDIT: Would also be good if people could post the reasoning behind their vote...

[peterms]

Survive, but in a different form?

[Awol]

Survive, but in a different form?

Don't seem to be able to edit the poll, but if a MOD could add that option (please) it would help..

Done - TV

[Meath_Villan]

I have gone for summer as portugal is huffing and puffing at the mo

[peterms]

If I had to put money on it, I'd say that it will survive, but with some countries leaving - so a slimmed-down version. A smaller grouping of countries whose economies are more similar than the present spread might allow closer union, which some appear to want. An inner zone of more closely aligned countries with a common currency, and an outer zone of trading partners with their own currencies, some political integration as now, but no intention to commit to economic integration?

[CVByrne]

peterms you don't live here so randomly quoting media is inaccurate.

The budget will 100% go through, what politicians are doing is covering their asses and already campaigning for the elections in january. The opposition want the government to put through the budget but want to look like they oppose it. They don't want to be the ones making these cuts.

Well, at the risk of randomly quoting the media despite not living there, I read here that Fine Gael have received assurances that the budget details are not seen by the EU as binding on them. Having sought and received that specific assurance, and publicised it, it would be very hard to disclaim responsibility for whatever budget exists should they win the election.

The thing is, they accept the same view as the current lot, and the discussion appears to be about detail rather than the bigger questions about default, withdrawal from the euro, whether the banks should be baled out and so on. And if that's the case, then the differences between the main policy positions which will be placed before the electorate will be trivial. Other arguments are being made, for example on Tonight with Vincent Brown (Sorry! More random quoting!), but they don't appear to be reflected in what the main parties are saying. Pity.

Basically they are right, the most unpopular parts of the budget and 4 year plan can be changed, but overall it will be pretty much unchanged. Only cosmetic changes really.

Fine Gael want 75% cuts 25% taxes, Labour want 50% 50%, and as if by coincidence fianna fail's is 66% 33%. So that makes the new coalition governments 66% 33% too.

Basically everything said in the media now is campaigning, the level of cuts and the areas cut will not change much after the election.

As for the euro there is zero chance it will fail. There is also zero chance ireland would ever leave the euro.

[Awol]

As for the euro there is zero chance it will fail.

Very interested to hear your reasoning for that, CV.

[CVByrne]

As for the euro there is zero chance it will fail.

Very interested to hear your reasoning for that, CV.

The damage it would do to Germany and France amd the euro zone is too much, it would be better for Germany to keep propping up the likes of Greece, Ireland and Portugal than it would to break up the euro zone.

Also they will refuse to have the euro experiment fail. Nobody inside the euro zone wants it to fail, only countries outside it.

[CVByrne]

For example it would be far better for Ireland to have defaulted on everything. But it would do reputational damage. The same thing applies to Germany and France with their beloved euro. They will prop everything up. They can prop everything up too.