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Bollitics - Ireland, the Euro and the future of the EU


Awol

The Euro, survive or die?  

66 members have voted

  1. 1. The Euro, survive or die?

    • Survive
      35
    • Dead by Christmas 2010
      1
    • Dead by Easter 2011
      3
    • Dead by summer 2011
      3
    • Dead by Christmas 2011
      6
    • Survive in a different form
      18


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Perfectly capable of understanding that concept thanks.

why the attitude ?

2 more posters posted pretty much exactly the same thing in the thread , don't see them getting the same sort of response

Perhaps you should look at the tone of your post compared to the other two.

Yep done that

So question remains , why the attitude ?

I'm sure the site in it's guidelines once upon a tine used to ask posters to adopt a "don't assume" attitude .. Maybe that guide line needs to be re-instated and then you wouldn't be trying to find fault in everything I post

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Perfectly capable of understanding that concept thanks.

why the attitude ?

2 more posters posted pretty much exactly the same thing in the thread , don't see them getting the same sort of response

Perhaps you should look at the tone of your post compared to the other two.

Yep done that

So question remains , why the attitude ?

I'm sure the site in it's guidelines once upon a tine used to ask posters to adopt a "don't assume" attitude .. Maybe that guide line needs to be re-instated and then you wouldn't be trying to find fault in everything I post

Everything you post? Seriously?

If you didn't like the reply as I said think a little more about the tone of your own posts.

Now lets get back to the topic at hand shall we...

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Perfectly capable of understanding that concept thanks.

why the attitude ?

2 more posters posted pretty much exactly the same thing in the thread , don't see them getting the same sort of response

Perhaps you should look at the tone of your post compared to the other two.

Yep done that

So question remains , why the attitude ?

I'm sure the site in it's guidelines once upon a tine used to ask posters to adopt a "don't assume" attitude .. Maybe that guide line needs to be re-instated and then you wouldn't be trying to find fault in everything I post

Everything you post? Seriously?

If you didn't like the reply as I said think a little more about the tone of your own posts.

Now lets get back to the topic at hand shall we...

What a rather pompous post ... Maybe somebody else ought to be doing some thinking about their posting style ? Who exactly do you think you are ?

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What's farcical though is that the UK Govt via the B of E will have lent the £7Bn to the Banks at between 0.5-0.75% BBR - LIBOR... or thereabouts

Bank then lend it back to the UK Govt as a long term gilt loan paying an interest of about 2.75% to prop up the deficit.....

UK Govt then uses this money lent to the banks at 2.75%pa to the Irish Govt at say 3.5 - 4%pa interest.

Who still makes the biggest margin on all this quantative recycling?... Ah yes the banks!

Great stuff...the bankers pay their bonus - business as usual.......the Irish default.... who picks up the tab?....Yes that's right me & thee!!

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... the Euro does not need political union in the sense that you are implying...

I think there are some clear problems caused by having a common currency without political union.

The economies of the different countries will grow at different speeds, but the common mechanism for dealing with that, devaluation, doesn't apply, so tensions between member states will grow.

Those countries who have joined the euro have signed up to some conditions which are increasingly hard to meet, so they are being fudged and misrepresented, eg ratio of govt debt to gdp.

They have given up their own currency, and so have lost one very significant way of tackling demand deficit, which I've bored people with in previous posts.

Maybe the thinking was that people would see the half way house doesn't work, and proceed to full union. Of course the conclusion they draw could equally be to retreat, rather than proceed further.

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The point that was being missed though Peter is that there is much alignment between these states due to many factors, not least the need and the fact that cross border trade happens all of the time. As Julie explains above the days of single states having only a influence on their own economies are long since gone and basically as each day passes the world moves more and more intertwined. The Euro has been clearly backed as a mechanism for trade by many businesses across all of the EU, and for the UK especially by people like the CBI. Obviously with all monetary schemes there will be a requirement for safeguards and basically insurances and I will let the money experts look after that as that is what they do - yes I do realise that typically these money "experts" are the same people who inflicted a lot of the problems that the world faces.

I've said on many times, I am lucky if you like because I have worked in many countries - 40 odd with work at the last count - and have seen the way that cross border monetary differences are sorted on a very small scale albeit, but one thing that shines through like a beacon, is that isolationism is basically a backward step. I've also seen how so many of the countries in what is called "the west" have similar economic challenges and requirements - again something that the more eurosceptic posters wont accept. Conversely I have also seen the problems one when one state hits money problems - I was stuck in Portugal when Lamont and his cronies did their worse and basically saw queues of UK nationals trying and failing to get money out of Portuguese banks, something that was not a very pleasant experience.

I don't have the answers, I'm just an IT bloke, but what I do know in my own mind is that the problems that many of the places such as Ireland and Greece, will not be solved overnight, will not be solved by massive and vindictive cuts and will not be solved by other areas of the word retreating behind artificial borders.

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The Euro has been clearly backed as a mechanism for trade by many businesses across all of the EU, and for the UK especially by people like the CBI.

And why has that been so? Because it is in the particular interests of those businesses.

Does that necessarily mean it is in the interests of the economies in which these business operate? I don't think so.

Separately, the talk of a realignment of the euro into a periphery and mainstream euro (the latter tied to the Germans and possibly involving the scandinavians) would seem to me a head banging against a wall if it was supposedly an acknowledgement that the current currency union was a failure.

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Snowy - For me its a fairly obvious one that business like the Euro because of the many benefits that it brings, and ultimately successful business means prosperous economy. Now I can understand that ultimately business can and does look after itself, but society and business are not mutually exclusive IMO and you cannot exclude one for the other. The balance between the two are the key to success

But as I said to Peter, I am just a humble IT guy who has made my views known based on what I have seen and experienced. I will drop out of this thread though as its getting too personal point scoring (not from you Snowy - sorry if it sounds like that)

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Snowy - For me its a fairly obvious one that business like the Euro because of the many benefits that it brings, and ultimately successful business means prosperous economy. Now I can understand that ultimately business can and does look after itself, but society and business are not mutually exclusive IMO and you cannot exclude one for the other. The balance between the two are the key to success

But as I said to Peter, I am just a humble IT guy who has made my views known based on what I have seen and experienced. I will drop out of this thread though as its getting too personal point scoring (not from you Snowy - sorry if it sounds like that)

No worries. Didn't read it as that so no need for any apology.

I have always seen a business case for a common currency (it was probably the basis for me not being against the UK joining the euro) but it would appear that the difficulties inherent in this type of union are to the detriment of societies as a whole. Granted some (businesses especially) have and will continue to benefit from it but, unfortunately, those who are appearing to bear the brunt of the downside and the risk are those most unprepared to bear it.

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Early reactions

2.50pm: The immediate verdict from the financial markets to Ireland's fiscal plan is not encouraging.

The yield on the Irish 10-year bond has been rising since 2pm, and just touched 9.2%.

City analysts are warning that that political instability in Ireland is still undermining confidence. Here's some early reaction (via Reuters):

Melanie Bowler of Moody's Analytics: "Despite the plan, the political uncertainty remains a key trouble in the eyes of the market and needs to be resolved quickly to get things settled. But I think the plan will be pushed through."

Jim Power, chief economist of Friends First: "The big challenge is to try and deliver it, it's going to be difficult, it's going to be painful but there's no choice.....I think it's going to be very dangerous to take 15 billion out of an economy in a deep recession."

James Nixon, chief European economist at Societe Generale: "It's a staggeringly austere budget, the cuts are deep and it will hurt.......The main thing that stands out is that they still expect the economy to grow by 2.7% over the next 4 years but it's hard to see how

that can be true."

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Maybe I'm just an eternal optimist but I can't see too many jobs going once this plan has been put in place. Yes, there may well be jobs lost in the public sector but I would imagine most of those will be people who are on the brink of retirement and want to leave with a nice lump sum.

Merchants of Doom and Gloom are beginning to come out in force now and that can't be good for the economy as a start. As for Jim Power above, he's a prick, he didn't even let me pass my 3rd year economics exam first time! :D

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Maybe I'm just an eternal optimist but I can't see too many jobs going once this plan has been put in place. Yes, there may well be jobs lost in the public sector but I would imagine most of those will be people who are on the brink of retirement and want to leave with a nice lump sum.

Merchants of Doom and Gloom are beginning to come out in force now and that can't be good for the economy as a start. As for Jim Power above, he's a prick, he didn't even let me pass my 3rd year economics exam first time! :D

Do you think the analysis in your first para might shed some light on the event mentioned in your second para?

:idea:

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Maybe I'm just an eternal optimist but I can't see too many jobs going once this plan has been put in place. Yes, there may well be jobs lost in the public sector but I would imagine most of those will be people who are on the brink of retirement and want to leave with a nice lump sum.

Merchants of Doom and Gloom are beginning to come out in force now and that can't be good for the economy as a start. As for Jim Power above, he's a prick, he didn't even let me pass my 3rd year economics exam first time! :D

Do you think the analysis in your first para might shed some light on the event mentioned in your second para?

:idea:

Maybe, but I've moved on quite a bit since then and my horizons have been broadened! :D Yes the country is in trouble. I may be looking at it from slightly tinted glasses seeing as though I won't really be affected by many of the cuts as I am neither in the public sector, do not own property yet and have a steady enough job that shouldn't be affected by the restrictions imposed by the government.

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