Bollitics - Ireland, the Euro and the future of the EU

[Gringo]

They expect that the rate on the imf/ecb loan to be 6.7% if thats true Ireland is well and truly toast

Scratch that its going to be set at 5% and Fianna fail will declare they negotiated a great deal

Spains already over 5.3% and they were a full 100 bp ahead of you a month ago, so 6.7% sounds a reasonable market level (at the moment).

[peterms]

So, any predictions for tomorrow's demonstration? Fifty Sinn Fein and a lone Garda? Ten thousand for an hour then off to the pub? 100,000 and gridlock for hours?

[Gringo]

Well everyone seems to labelling sinn fein as scum and they're the only ones seemingly trying to protect the sovereignty of the oirish state.

[CarewsEyebrowDesigner]

ah sinn fein. it'll be interesting to see if they manage to get a majority down south to go along with the majority i predict for the next election up here.

[Awol]

President Gerry Adams? His SB/MI5 handlers are going to be busy..

[Awol]

Not strictly on topic but... The US has followed the same route of buying up 'distressed assets' and the Fed' is merrily printing money again. How long before the Dollar (or the £ for that matter) gets the Euro treatment?

[Awol]

I think the one thing that can't happen is this idea of NorthernEuro and SouthernEuro - you can't manage that. You can't announce you're dissolving the euro either - it just gets trashed in the markets - and where are they going to print all the francs, DM, pesetas etc without anyone noticing. The only possibility is that countries are ejected (or eject themselves) one by one. There isn't any other convincing narrative (apart from continuing in the faerytale narrative upon which we are already travelling).

This is probably a naive question, but... if the logistics of reintroducing the Punt is too difficult could Ireland adopt Sterling as an alternative to the Euro?

[Gringo]

I think the one thing that can't happen is this idea of NorthernEuro and SouthernEuro - you can't manage that. You can't announce you're dissolving the euro either - it just gets trashed in the markets - and where are they going to print all the francs, DM, pesetas etc without anyone noticing. The only possibility is that countries are ejected (or eject themselves) one by one. There isn't any other convincing narrative (apart from continuing in the faerytale narrative upon which we are already travelling).

This is probably a naive question, but... if the logistics of reintroducing the Punt is too difficult could Ireland adopt Sterling as an alternative to the Euro?

It would work for Ireland, but not such a good idea for Portugal etc.

[peterms]

Estimates of the crowd today seem to vary from "up to 50,000", to 100k+.

I see RTE and at least one paper seem to be retailing the police version as fact, ie something less than 50k. In the UK, we generally double or triple police figures to get a picture of how many turned up.

In a population the size of Ireland's that pretty impressive. And I've also heard several people challenging the official line about there being no alternative to bending over for the bankers, eg some people interviewed on the demo, and this piece of wisdom from abroad in a national paper.

[CVByrne]

You do know the police are on the side of the protesters so no point lying about the the figures.

"Gardaí said that around 10,000 people started the march, however the crowd swelled to around 50,000 people as it moved down the quays."

Up to 50,000 people is nothing, it's a non event. There are 300,000 people in the public sector. This is a nothing protest it proves the majority are in acceptance of our fate. Make the 6bln cuts and get a new government in in January then move on.

[CVByrne]

ah sinn fein. it'll be interesting to see if they manage to get a majority down south to go along with the majority i predict for the next election up here.

People don't understand that due to proportional representation Sinn Fein get very little seats in the Republic as Labour Fine Gael and Fianna Fail voters give eachother 2nd and 3rd votes.

Sinn Fein are the scum of the earth. Despised down here by almost everyone bar their largley criminal and militant supporters. Not only that but 80% of the country think their policies are moronic, communist and totally incompatable with the 3 main parties policies.

Also the reputational damage done by any party going into government with Sinn Fein would be huge. That's why parties have to say they will never ever go into government with Sinn Fein. It will never ever happen and I wis people would stop giving their nut jobs air time.

I will always fill out my voting slip with numbers in every candidate bar Sinn Fein so no matter what my vote will count against them.

[peterms]

You do know the police are on the side of the protesters so no point lying about the the figures.

"Gardaí said that around 10,000 people started the march, however the crowd swelled to around 50,000 people as it moved down the quays."

Up to 50,000 people is nothing, it's a non event. There are 300,000 people in the public sector. This is a nothing protest it proves the majority are in acceptance of our fate. Make the 6bln cuts and get a new government in in January then move on.

Police always understate the numbers. It's what they do.

It's an astonishing number of people for the size of the population, on the coldest day of the year. Even more so if you consider, as people are saying, that the Irish don't have much recent history of street protests, it's not something which is part of the culture. The equivalent in the UK would be something either side of a million, about 1.2m if you go with the 100k figure.

Perhaps people are starting to realise they shouldn't pay the price for the bankers' mad gambling with money they never had. It's like some kids playing monopoly, running up fantasy numbers, and asking their parents to replace the iou's with real money. Of course you wouldn't give your kids real money to replace the imaginary assets they claim they owe to other players of the game. That is what bailing out the bankers would be like. It's not real money, it never was, and it will only become real money if the rest of us choose to join the fantasy and bail them out. The only sensible act is to tell them to sort out their own debts of notional money between themselves, while the rest of us get on with real life.

[snowychap]

Up to 50,000 people is nothing, it's a non event.

When does it become an 'event'? 50,001?

Sorry for my cynicism, Conor, but I think that no matter how many people had been there you would have been proclaiming it as a non event.

And, however bad things got, I fear you would still be imploring people to 'move on'.

[CVByrne]

It is not an astonishing number of people, you are talking utter rubbish, you don;t know shit about my country yet try to pretend you have some wonderful insight. You put your own spin on the bits you read in your media.

50,000 is a terrible turn out it'll do nothing to change the budget. Double that amount turned out in a protest early last year. So the numbers have halved when the cuts have more than doubled. Total sum of nothing will come from this protest and not a single Irishman (ie people who know what they are talking about) will post in this thread saying that protest will change the budget. We all know we need to make cuts and it has to come from Social Welfare and Public Sector Pay as they make up 80% of expenditure. We all know we need to increase taxes and we will.

People are angry and have a right to protest. But it was a paltry protest by the usual section of the population. It will achieve nothing.

[CVByrne]

I mean a non event as it it will not achieve what the protesters wished. The majority of Irish people accept we need 6lbn in cuts. The protesters are not the majority

[CVByrne]

Also you'd swear the banks were a person. All the people who ran the banks into he ground have been removed and the Government has put their people in place to try run the banks. The banks couldn't sort out their problems, they were bankrupt. But you cant have clearing banks like AIB and BOI go under, it would take almost every company in the country who banks with them under. Peoples savings would go under. They should have been nationalised and the Government should have defaulted on the banks debt, Anglo and other should have been left to go under.

But this is all captain hindsight territory. What we should have done, not what we any of the politicians wanted to do back in 2008.

[Meath_Villan]

Went round to the in-laws last night talked about the state of the country and the government etc ....so I said I dont know who I will vote for yet but it wont be Fianna fail so I said who would you vote for they said Fianna fail ...I was like what ? is this some sort of sick joke...they said no we always have and will vote for them but they need a new leader .......I couldnt belive it but thats the way most old people will vote and you wont see that much of a swing to the opposition in the election

[Gringo]

It is not an astonishing number of people, you are talking utter rubbish, you don;t know shit about my country yet try to pretend you have some wonderful insight. You put your own spin on the bits you read in your media.

If only someone could invent something that allowed people outside of the country the ability to access the media inside the country.

[snowychap]

I mean a non event as it it will not achieve what the protesters wished. The majority of Irish people accept we need 6lbn in cuts. The protesters are not the majority

So it only becomes an event when 50.01% of the population turn out?

Or it only becomes an event when/if policy changes? That's completely arse about face, really.

Still, move on, eh? Line in the sand, eh? There is no problem. The system is fine. You're all great. No one is struggling. You're all right and you appear to be the self-appointed spokesperson for the silent majority (the same majority about whom you were less than complimentary before - especially about their (economic) decisions and opinions).

We all know we need to make cuts...

No, you are 'all' (who is this 'all'?) of the opinion that this needs to happen. No one knows, not even your 'Captain Hindsight' fellow.

[peterms]

All the people who ran the banks into he ground have been removed

Didn't you tell us, before all this blew up, that you work in a bank on derivatives, trying to make them sufficiently obscure that the regulators wouldn't be able to understand them and therefore would be unable to control them?

Are you still doing that, or has that stuff been stopped?

Do you think this activity was any part of the problem?