Silent_Bob Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 The sixth method would be the supply/demand situation. We are a "sleeping giant", even though I hate to use those words. There is a lot of potential here, but we need a (£40m?) kickstart and a forward thinking owner/chairman. That would bring us up to a top 6 club again. How many other top 6 clubs are available at a total cost of £100m (including clearing debt and money for new players)? Chelsea? Man Utd? Liverpool? Arsenal? Spurs? Others? After all, there are other reasons as well to own a successfull Premiership club than return on investment. Look at Roman at Chelsea. When he was in his early 20's he was living in a communist state. When he was in his mid 30's he was worth an estimated £10 billion. Of course he was known as man who used very questionable methods, and he was suspected of connections with the Russian mafia. He has spent £300m(?) on Chelsea, and he has got value for money in terms of good PR. And probably regained a lot of the money lost because people are more willing to deal with him now than they were earlier. I'm not saying we should search for another Russian criminal to take over our club. But if someone want publicity, why not buy a Premiership club? How many of you had heart about the Comers before they showed an interest in the club? If they do buy the club, I'm sure it will open a few doors for them as well. My guess is that there are a lot of other interested parties as well. But Doug has waited too long. Now people know that the longer they wait, the more eager he will be to sell. So a lot of money can be saved by waiting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 and a fifth one richard, what a buyer is prepared to pay for one Is based on the other 4 Ian. They will be the ones valuing the company on one of the other 4 methods Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villafan306 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 So are we any closer to a takeover then? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 No, but Ellis is one day closer to dying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LancsVillan Posted March 3, 2006 Moderator Share Posted March 3, 2006 No, but Ellis is one day closer to dying. ain't we all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 so is the club Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Gringo Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 and a fifth one richard, what a buyer is prepared to pay for one Is based on the other 4 Ian. They will be the ones valuing the company on one of the other 4 methods Accountants - the price of everything and the value of nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinity-Tom Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 There are 4 ways of valuing a company 1. Discounted future cash flows - the best and prefered method 2. Net assets 3. Share price based on PE ratios 4. Dividend pricing method But none of those methods would paint a truly accurate picture of Villa. What P/E ratio would you use? Alot of the assets are off balance sheet! The current level of dividends would be difficult to extrapolate and the discounted future cash flows is left redundant by the fact that it is virtually impossible to predict what our cash flows would be with any certainty. The best way in my view is to get an asset based valuation which incorporates the potential value of the off balance sheet items like the potential planning permission and the youth players who have come up through the ranks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Richard Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 What P/E ratio would you use? Industry average. Didn't say valuation was easy. I just said these are the 4 recognised methods. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LancsVillan Posted March 3, 2006 Moderator Share Posted March 3, 2006 What P/E ratio would you use? Industry average. Didn't say valuation was easy. I just said these are the 4 recognised methods. Where is counting the money in the safe and keeping some for yourself, or is that just £llis Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Trinity-Tom Posted March 3, 2006 Share Posted March 3, 2006 What P/E ratio would you use? Industry average. Didn't say valuation was easy. I just said these are the 4 recognised methods. I know what you are saying but I am just wondering how could you get an industry average that would be reasonable. I guess you could see what Spurs P/E ratio was when ENIC bought in as I guess they would have been similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 There are 4 ways of valuing a company 1. Discounted future cash flows - the best and prefered method 2. Net assets 3. Share price based on PE ratios 4. Dividend pricing method There is a fifth Richard. 5. What an 82 year old CEO & Chairman thinks it is worth for him to sell up. answer = priceless! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 actually in today's mail they have a picture of Ellis presenting a trophy at the variety club awards and boy does he look thin and very ill despite obvious touch up on the picture. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted March 4, 2006 Moderator Share Posted March 4, 2006 So accountancy bod's, using your 4 (or 5) methods, take a shot at it. Whats a fair valuation of this club ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denis_B Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 actually in today's mail they have a picture of Ellis presenting a trophy at the variety club awards and boy does he look thin and very ill despite obvious touch up on the picture. An apparent true story. At this event Bobby Davro was on stage and said 'Aren't you Doug Ellis, Chairman of Aston Villa?' DE smiling.... 'Yes, thats me' BD ' Mr.Ellis did you ever meet Frank Sinatra?' De 'No, unfortunately not' BD ' Never mind you soon will' And some people say some on here are cruel Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 4, 2006 Share Posted March 4, 2006 No accountancy bod here buit I reckon £50m is a fair pruice for a devalued company with limited appeal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 5, 2006 Moderator Share Posted March 5, 2006 One or two people said, when the Comer rumours started - about October/November last year - that 64 mill was too high a price and it wouldn't happen at that price. As far as I can see nothing's changed. If anything the (real) price will have been depressed a tad by the performance of the club in all respects since then. I don't mean to be "I told you so"-ish, but I don't know any other way than to say I agree with the point you're making, and I thought the same thing a good while ago, even when a lot of others were claiming that "we" are worth a lot more etc etc. A company with a stock Market value of less than 50 million - about 46 - that hasn't made a profit for a good few years and which, despite desperate claims from the stock market best practice ignoring Chairman/CEO/Finance Director/everything else, has assets totalling a net book value of less than 50 million (from memory, without checking) is not going to be bought by anyone with any senswe of value for more than the amount you say. And if it is they're so fiancially stupid that we really shouldn't want them looking after our club. The more so when the present incubment is, ahem, "unwell". There's, in estate agent terminology, a cracking [Club] with opportunities for expansion and improvement and all the rest, but only an eejit would pay over I reckon 52-54 million at the absolute max, and that's factoring in "Villa obsession" into the equation, really. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 Pete, again spot on analysis and unless you are a Villa fan you won't pay the extra Ellis wants. Den- excellent story and that is very cruel would love to have been there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted March 5, 2006 Share Posted March 5, 2006 'Aren't you Doug Ellis, Chairman of Aston Villa?' DE smiling.... 'Yes, thats me' BD ' Mr.Ellis did you ever meet Frank Sinatra?' De 'No, unfortunately not' BD ' Never mind you soon will' And now, the end is near; And so I face the final curtain..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted March 7, 2006 Share Posted March 7, 2006 Just thought I would bring this thread back up, nothing happening of course !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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