economic situation is dire

[peterms]

Well it is basic macro.... Even Milton Friedman was an advocate of QE style monetary policy (cf his 'advice' to Japan).

Martin Wolf contributes to the discussion, touching on how money is created, the proper role of government in that, the hyperinflation myth, the need to create money to counter the recession, and the requirement to run a deficit when the private sector is deleveraging. Even mentions Friedman.

“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” This comment of Mark Twain applies with great force to policy on money and banking. Some are sure that the troubled western economies suffer from a surfeit of money. Meanwhile, orthodox policy makers believe that the right way to revive economies is by forcing private spending back up. Almost everybody agrees that monetary financing of governments is lethal. These beliefs are all false...

[tonyh29]

So Republic are now going bust.

Bad business model, didn't keep up with the times, any other BS reason ......... or the reality that more and more hight street shops are now going bust because of the failed economic policies of this rotten to the core Gvmt.

I'd be interested to know your opinion of why woolworths went under one can only assume it was the failed economic policies of the rotten government at the time

Fact is the high street is in decline and has been for some time for example the number of town centre stores fell by almost 15,000 between 2000 and 2009 ( that rotten government at work again hey )

Colliers International data indicated that the rise in vacancy rates increased from 7.3% of total outlets in (October) 2006 to 14.4% in (October) 2009 ( that pesky rotten government at work yet again )

You may want to pretend the valid reasons are BS and its all down to this government , but then you know that isn't the case already , don't you ?

[tonyh29]

CBI saying we've avoided a triple dip recession

Could have sworn I read in here that we'd already entered it :confused:

[TrentVilla]

I think it is wrong to lay the blame for the continued failings of some of our high streets biggest names on the current government but then it is equally daft to absolve them from blame either.

 

The collapse of Woolworth's was no more down to Labour than the collapse of HMV is down to the Conservatives. Both were simply antiquated retailers who failed to adapt to the internet and wider digital age and who crumbled under the cost of their leases for flag ship high street stores their sales could no longer support.

 

It didn't have to end the way it has for either firm but bad decisions by successive MD's put them in a position of danger when the economic bubble burst. That is their own fault not any governments.

 

Now both the previous and current governments share the blame for the wider economic climate and the down turn in consumer spending, my own personal belief being that the current government have made things worse rather than better in this regard. I don't though think they are responsible for bad business going bust.

 

I think you could argue that they are partly responsible for the economic conditions and the consumer market but they aren't responsible for those businesses that aren't structured in the right way and that can't survive a drop in sales. Plenty of other firms out there have adapted to the digital age and are weathering the consumer confidence cricise and the increasing dominanc of online shopping, as much as I dislike Osborn and blame him for many things I can't point the finger at him for the likes of Jessops.

[drat01]

So Republic are now going bust.

Bad business model, didn't keep up with the times, any other BS reason ......... or the reality that more and more hight street shops are now going bust because of the failed economic policies of this rotten to the core Gvmt.

I'd be interested to know your opinion of why woolworths went under one can only assume it was the failed economic policies of the rotten government at the time

Fact is the high street is in decline and has been for some time for example the number of town centre stores fell by almost 15,000 between 2000 and 2009 ( that rotten government at work again hey )

Colliers International data indicated that the rise in vacancy rates increased from 7.3% of total outlets in (October) 2006 to 14.4% in (October) 2009 ( that pesky rotten government at work yet again )

You may want to pretend the valid reasons are BS and its all down to this government , but then you know that isn't the case already , don't you ?

 

Interesting Tony that your standard "ahh but Labour ...." even falls into this subject.

 

Despite the fact that so many people are stating that the policies of austerity that this Gvmt are implementing are now having a massive effect and the knock on from that is closure like we are seeing on a regular basis in the hight street and the further knock on that has on staff and their families etc, the typical Tory response seems to be one of deflection at looking at the causes for these closures etc. I suppose just as long as the finance sector and those that donate to teh Tory party continue to make money all is fine and dandy? 

[drat01]

CBI saying we've avoided a triple dip recession

Could have sworn I read in here that we'd already entered it :confused:

 

So the fact that so many more informed analysts - as was pointed out in this thread - were (and some still are predicting triple dip, was not true? Oooops it was though Tony and your attempt at deflection of examination of the failed policies of the Tory party are again nothing more than a poor attempt.

[drat01]

The digital age and Republic? I fail to see the link sorry

 

Maybe as again many more informed analysts of these things are saying this morning, the fact that austerity and the targeting of the youth for things such as "work for nothing", high youth unemployment, or families where required benefits are being cut (room tax etc) are more the causes why Republic and many other High street shops are now going bust. Basically this Gvmt has cut the source of the money that is required for organisations such as these. The Tory party (as we have seen on this thread) will always try and deflect from any real examination of what their abhorrent policies actually do to real families (while looking after their core supporters - the richer end of society) but luckily more and more people are now seeing that what they are about and what their failed policies are doing is not the correct way forward.

 

Rather than quite pathetic (and in a way obscene) attempts at "jokes" re kids and the impacts of Gvmt, maybe a closer examination of what the policies now seriously impacting the country are having on future generations should be a higher priority. But I suppose that will be met with more deflection etc

[Dr_Pangloss]

Well it is basic macro.... Even Milton Friedman was an advocate of QE style monetary policy (cf his 'advice' to Japan).

Martin Wolf contributes to the discussion, touching on how money is created, the proper role of government in that, the hyperinflation myth, the need to create money to counter the recession, and the requirement to run a deficit when the private sector is deleveraging. Even mentions Friedman.

>>“It ain’t what you don’t know that gets you into trouble. It’s what you know for sure that just ain’t so.” This comment of Mark Twain applies with great force to policy on money and banking. Some are sure that the troubled western economies suffer from a surfeit of money. Meanwhile, orthodox policy makers believe that the right way to revive economies is by forcing private spending back up. Almost everybody agrees that monetary financing of governments is lethal. These beliefs are all false...

 

Friedman had some interesting ideas (including advocating a basic income guarantee) which many on the left miss mainly because of Naomi Klein's 'Shock Doctrine'.

Edited February 13, 2013 by Dr_Pangloss

[TrentVilla]

The digital age and Republic? I fail to see the link sorry

 

You fail to see that people buy things including clothes online now rather from shops? Do you run HMV?

[snowychap]

CBI saying we've avoided a triple dip recession

Could you ask them to tell me next month's Cheltenham festival winners, too, please?

 

Even if we do avoid a contraction in this quarter, the reality is that the economy is and has been pretty much flat for the last what 18-24 months?

 

Edit: I see Merv seems to have given up the ghost on kidding us that CPI will be back down to 2% in the foreseeable future.

Edited February 13, 2013 by snowychap

[LancsVillan]

I don't venture into the political threads very often, but to see some of the childish baiting then responses above maybe I should do it more often.

 

If you think that is aimed at you, then you're probably right.

 

Posts removed.

[drat01]

The digital age and Republic? I fail to see the link sorry

 

You fail to see that people buy things including clothes online now rather from shops? Do you run HMV?

 

The digital age and Republic? I fail to see the link sorry

 

You fail to see that people buy things including clothes online now rather from shops? Do you run HMV?

 

No I understand the online requirements that ALL retailers now require - I understand them very well  (as for running HMV nah but thanks for the job offer) But Repulbic's problems are not borne out of the changing marketplaces there at all. Basically their core customer base no longer have the facilities to buy either online or high street. Removals in income sources, threats of job losses, needs to move what was classed as disposable incomes that were previously used on clothes and the like etc either are no longer there or have to back fill in other more required areas. I get analysis after analysis documents about these sort of subjects and the infrastructures (albeit IT related) to support this. Republic have suffered badly as will many more as these cut back policies further eat into the very marketplaces that are needed to sustain economic growth.

 

Bottom line is Republic is not suffering because of the Digital Age IMO it's because their customer base no longer can afford to shop there

[colhint]

reuters report that retail sales are down in all 17 eurozone countries, the largest drop in 8 months, coming after 5 consecutive falls. So it seems the problem is throughout the Eurozone. It does seem as though we are faring well against it. I know that doesn't help much if you lose your job, but you are probably a bit better off here than there.

[drat01]

reuters report that retail sales are down in all 17 eurozone countries, the largest drop in 8 months, coming after 5 consecutive falls. So it seems the problem is throughout the Eurozone. It does seem as though we are faring well against it. I know that doesn't help much if you lose your job, but you are probably a bit better off here than there.

 

Yes retail figures are down across Europe, as stated on many times there are bigger market forces at play tan just the UK. But you also have to look at what is inhibiting retail growth sales. A lot of the Eurozone have also imposed quite severe and restrictive austerity cuts. The problem we have in the UK is the massive reliance on things like retail and areas like the "service" sector. Countries like Germany have a lot more "eggs" in a lot more "baskets" than we do, so impacts that this Gvmt impose on the very marketplaces that we are relying on for any sort of growth should be challenged and IMO changed in severity and type

[colhint]

Germany might have more eggs than we do, but we are still 3rd or 4th largest manufacturer. I would say that would be a fair amount of eggs too.

[TrentVilla]

I'm sorry but seemingly you don't.

 

Republic's problems are not caused by their core customer base no longer having the facilities to buy online or on the high street. That is just your incorrect conclusion and one not really supported by anything at all.

 

There is little question that consumers have less to spend or are less willing to spend at the moment, I said similar in my first post although you ignored most of it and tried to seize upon one small part.

 

However this is only a part of the picture, yes consumer spending and confidence is down but people are still spending money they just aren't spending it with retailers like Republic. Given that we now live in an age where people can buy something on their phone and have it delivered the next day it is unlikely that the picture for these retailers would be all that different were the economic picture more rosey.

 

To some extent the general economic conditions mask the issue, the main issue for these retailers isn't how much people are spending but rather where they are spending and quite simply they aren't spending on the high street.

 

At a time when Republic's sales were down by 9%, online clothing retailer who target exactly the same market saw their turnover and profit increase by a huge amount. So much so that they are now valued more than many high street retailers, oh and they recently announced a 42% increase in year on year sales.

 

Obviously economic conditions are a factor in peoples spending habits but it is up to retailers to move with the times both in terms of consumer spending and technology and companies like Republic have failed to do this successfully.

 

So no the bottom line isn't that people can't afford to shop there, they just are no longer willing to pay a premium for doing so when they can shop from home for less and have things delivered to them. The old model of big high street stores and passing on those costs to the consumer are over for all but a handful of retailers.

 

It isn't impossible though, other high street retailers are showing that there is still life in the high street for retailers.

 

Anusha Couttigane, consultant at retail research group Conlumino, said:
"Despite TPG, the US-based private equity group which owns the brand, claiming
that underlying sales have remained strong, annual accounts for January 2012
indicated that gross profits were down by 9.17pc and it appears little has
changed since then.

 

"Nevertheless TPG cites crippling rental rates as the main cause for the
company’s breakdown, recently hiring KMPG in a desperate bid to offload some of
its 121 stores.

 

"In light of this, news of its administration suggests that attempts to
renegotiate monthly payments have failed, bringing the business to a complete
standstill and landlords facing the prospect of more vacant units on the high
street.

 

"Operating towards the value end of the market should have placed the
retailer in a strong position to take advantage of the consumer trend towards
low-cost fashion.

 

" However, its target youth market has been the hardest hit demographic of
the recession and it has struggled to appeal to them as effectively as rivals
such as Primark, ASOS or H&M.

 

"Fashion is a fast-moving industry where brand loyalty is fickle and Republic
has failed to keep up with some pretty fierce competitors."

 

That is from The Telegraph.

 

The article does reference the burden of their rents but it also mentions the decline of their sales and that really is the issue because other successful retailers like Primark and H&M are paying similar rents themselves.

 

So no, the bottom line isn't that Republic's customers can no longer spend money they are just choosing to not spend it with them.

[tonyh29]

CBI saying we've avoided a triple dip recession

Could have sworn I read in here that we'd already entered it :confused:

 

So the fact that so many more informed analysts - as was pointed out in this thread - were (and some still are predicting triple dip, was not true? Oooops it was though Tony and your attempt at deflection of examination of the failed policies of the Tory party are again nothing more than a poor attempt.

 

I asked for evidence that we had "ENTERED" (your words)  a triple dip ..all i got were predictions and article saying we were "heading " for  

 

we don't actually appear to have ENTERED a triple dip recession so your post was in fact false , wasn't it  .....

[Dr_Pangloss]

CBI estimate 0.3% growth in Q1 of this year, would be interesting to see what their confidence interval is (which would probably point to the possibility of a triple dip).

[drat01]

Trent thank you but I do.  You may feel you have all of the answers but for this you don't, sorry - apologies of that sounds rude, but your reply seemed to warrant a reply like that IMO

 

How much do you know about Republic? I am interested to see what you base your knowledge on compared to what I do. If you work for them (and I don't think you do) or they are one of your customers etc then great, your knowledge is based on a different set of data and information than I have seen previously and what that whole retail marketplace is looking at especially in relation to it's IT and the market place that will be part of it - or would have been given different circumstances

 

As someone who has a vested interest in things like on-line access and the models and different marketplaces, I find it interesting to see how certain companies are adapting, some are stagnating, some are moving completely in a different way. You are quoting about companies like ASOS I imagine? They present a very interesting model and one that is clearly suited to a particular vision they have for the short / medium term. But they were not really a High street player in any way, whereas companies like Republic certainly were. The point is the High street / retail sector is certainly required not just for the companies themselves but also for the other wealth dispersement that comes from those shops. Also you talk about online shopping as though its a one size fits all model which it certainly isn't and very few companies with the exception of niche players such as Amazon etc fall into.

 

The analytic and info that is out there is a very interesting read, the way the data is used on what is required for a sustainable business is key theory - but like all theories based on speculation rather than fact, because none of us really know what is round the corner. The Gvmt taking away a massive key part of what drives your customer base will down the line seriously impact what companies do to survive

 

As for the rents, there was a whole series of posts recently that covered that off but again that certainly is not helping by the looks of it and there needs to be some safeguards put in place you would imagine. Is this something that a Gvmt of a country dependent of areas like like retail should put in place?

 

As for your last statement, I disagree with you. For you, you are right, for me I am.

[drat01]

 

CBI saying we've avoided a triple dip recession

Could have sworn I read in here that we'd already entered it :confused:

 

So the fact that so many more informed analysts - as was pointed out in this thread - were (and some still are predicting triple dip, was not true? Oooops it was though Tony and your attempt at deflection of examination of the failed policies of the Tory party are again nothing more than a poor attempt.

 

I asked for evidence that we had "ENTERED" (your words)  a triple dip ..all i got were predictions and article saying we were "heading " for  

 

we don't actually appear to have ENTERED a triple dip recession so your post was in fact false , wasn't it  .....

Oh dear Tony you really do scrape the barrel at times in trying to deflect any sort of examination and usually criticism of this Gvmt.

 

I have asked you on many times to try and defend what is happening but the usual if not always reply is either one on semantics or one of "ahhh but Labour" etc, how's about explaining why you think this Gvmt is doing such a great job without reverting to either of those eh?

 

As for your remark, you know as well as anyone else that many many pundits, even Tory supporting ones were suggesting that the triple dip recession was about to hit us. Now based on the CBI you are saying that is not going to happen. It's not exactly a badge of honour though is it considering what exactly is happening and the appalling figures that are keep being issued - are you not somewhat embarrassed by the constant downturn and the readjustments downwards of  so called growth? What about the lame excuses like the weather, the Royal Wedding holidays etc etc, ar these really acceptable?

 

As said I would love to hear why you think that the economy is doing so well, and why this Gvmt policies should not be amended. I suspect I will be waiting for a long time?