Panto_Villan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 5 minutes ago, Stevo985 said: I'm worried to admit I don't get this chart Why is the first halving there and not the point earlier when it was at the same price but on the way down? Edit: I think I'm being thick. I assumed halving meant the price went to half of it's previous peak. But I don't think it does mean that now Nah halving is when the mining rewards for each bitcoin block mined are halved. Basically it means there’s half as many new bitcoins being created when it happens. I might be doing @PieFacE a disservice here but I’m always skeptical of charts like that, as there always seems to be one telling me I should totally invest right now based on historical trends, and then it magically stops having any predictive power the moment I do 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 I also decided a few years back to move a chunk of my bitcoin into ethereum, because it’s more environmentally friendly and generally more useful - I thought over time it might replace bitcoin. That hasn’t worked out super well for me. I think even if it becomes the “main” cryptocurrency then bitcoin is still going to be the one people speculate on financially. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted January 18 Author VT Supporter Share Posted January 18 12 minutes ago, Panto_Villan said: I might be doing @PieFacE a disservice here but I’m always skeptical of charts like that, as there always seems to be one telling me I should totally invest right now based on historical trends, and then it magically stops having any predictive power the moment I do That's fair enough. The 4 year cycles will end eventually. Might even happen now that the Bitcoin Spot ETF market is available and Wall Street will be more involved. My current thinking is to sell everything around mid-2025 but we'll see if that plays out or not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Panto_Villan Posted January 18 Share Posted January 18 2 hours ago, PieFacE said: That's fair enough. The 4 year cycles will end eventually. Might even happen now that the Bitcoin Spot ETF market is available and Wall Street will be more involved. My current thinking is to sell everything around mid-2025 but we'll see if that plays out or not. This is the other problem I have with crypto - I never feel like I should sell it. It keeps going up, right? I'm sure that'll never change. I had a friend who got into bitcoin really really early, and he just sold 10% of his crypto every year, no matter what level the price was at. Smart guy. Ended up buying a house in London with the money. Realistically my money in crypto is worthless because I'll still be holding it whenever the music finally stops. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted January 18 Author VT Supporter Share Posted January 18 (edited) 2 hours ago, Panto_Villan said: This is the other problem I have with crypto - I never feel like I should sell it. It keeps going up, right? I'm sure that'll never change. I had a friend who got into bitcoin really really early, and he just sold 10% of his crypto every year, no matter what level the price was at. Smart guy. Ended up buying a house in London with the money. Realistically my money in crypto is worthless because I'll still be holding it whenever the music finally stops. Well I don't think the market keeps going up forever. Even in cycles. Either crypto gets adopted or it doesn't. At the minute it's all largely useless for your average every day person. Other than Bitcoin being a "Store of Value" there's very little point to the thousands of coins out there imo. I've worked in the industry for about 7 years now and for the most part, the whole thing is just one giant cash grab. There's a few projects doing good things, but it's generally just speculative gambling. The truth is the world isn't really ready for crypto in general. People hate banks but they can't take responsibility of their own finances cos either a) they don't understand how crypto works b) they just simply don't understand what being in control of their own finances means The amount of people I see message our development team on a weekly basis with messages that they've lost access to their own tokens/money is staggering. I honestly struggle to see a world where crypto is fully adopted in the spirit that it was intended. Though, there's money to be made in speculative assets and I intend to try and do that . Maybe set targets and if you hit them then sell? Then wait for the market to drop and DCA back in when things start to pick up again? Dunno. Only you can decide when it's time to sell Edited January 18 by PieFacE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 6 Share Posted February 6 There’s so many crypto coins now, all making bullish statements and claims of going to the moon. It’s basically a lottery to back one that pumps big. It’ll be pure luck. I do still have a few bits and bobs just in case “it’s meeeeee”. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) On 06/02/2024 at 06:45, Genie said: There’s so many crypto coins now, all making bullish statements and claims of going to the moon. It’s basically a lottery to back one that pumps big. It’ll be pure luck. I do still have a few bits and bobs just in case “it’s meeeeee”. If you've been holding and active a while it's worth keeping up with airdrops. Tia and dym had free money for evm users recently, jup was decent for solana. I think this year will be big for airdrops with a lot of evm l2s and modular projects launching mainnets, if you've been fairly active and / or using protocols that don't have tokens (eg bridges) you might be due an unexpected windfall but you typically have to claim within a window or it's gone. On the broader front I think metamask has to drop something soon, and coin base will eventually (maybe even to cex users) otherwise Base will die and shareholders will be angry. Personally I think wallet / terminal drops will be low but if you've used the product a lot (rabby, thunder, etc) it might be non-trivial. Stuff like eigenlayer is going to be big but crowded, while smaller projects like mode might have no headlines but are also less congested. Berachain is the inverse - you can farm an airdrop using testnet tokens but so many people are already miles ahead of you so it's almost pointless. As for narrative trading - unless you're an insider or online 16 hours a day it's tough, you just don't have an edge. You can swing trade memes for a 2-3x but it's a grind - win a few then get rugged repeatedly. If you think there's an undervalued utility token then it's worth a punt, but crypto goons won't hold for even 50% apy - yield is a meme, price is the driver and they're looking at 1 sec candles. On your holdings - if you wouldn't buy them again at today's prices I'd dump and stay agile personally, but longer term defi plays might work out. Maybe unibot could catch retail if they can smooth out account abstraction, something like Pendle with interest rate swaps would be attractive to tradfi, and I'm still waiting for the killer options / 0dte proticol. Obviously not financial advice and everything I mentioned is going to zero. Good luck out there. Edited February 12 by Vancvillan Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 On 18/01/2024 at 12:58, Panto_Villan said: This is the other problem I have with crypto - I never feel like I should sell it. It keeps going up, right? I'm sure that'll never change. I had a friend who got into bitcoin really really early, and he just sold 10% of his crypto every year, no matter what level the price was at. Smart guy. Ended up buying a house in London with the money. Realistically my money in crypto is worthless because I'll still be holding it whenever the music finally stops. Respectfully your friend's experience is not going to influence the current market. If you keep waiting for big pumps you'll be left bag holding. Take initials out at 2-3x if you believe in the project and let the rest ride as free money. Or take profit on the whole stack at 2-3x and move on because what was hot yesterday is dead tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 (edited) Bitcoin is about to go through $50k, feels like 2024 is gonna be big Edited February 12 by Genie 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 Think "sell in May and go away" is still going to be a thing. Will probably see a dip at some point in March / April / May, roaring back to life in the second half of 2024. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 12 Share Posted February 12 31 minutes ago, Vancvillan said: Think "sell in May and go away" is still going to be a thing. Will probably see a dip at some point in March / April / May, roaring back to life in the second half of 2024. Me too, a pump around halving time, then a dip, then a second wave in the autumn is my uneducated guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted February 12 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 12 4 hours ago, Genie said: Bitcoin is about to go through $50k, feels like 2024 is gonna be big Yeah BTC broke through $50k! Stupid thing is I feel like 5% of the euphoria of what I was feeling when it broke $50k in the last cycle. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 11 hours ago, PieFacE said: Yeah BTC broke through $50k! Stupid thing is I feel like 5% of the euphoria of what I was feeling when it broke $50k in the last cycle. Some big pumps happening now. I’ve been moving what I had left around over the past couple of years (avoiding rug pulls). One project I have a small stake in is pretty cool. It’s a record label who have a song out already featuring Busta Rhymes. (Chooky / $Choo). The video comes out later this week. They say they have big artists and events lined up. Loads of revenue streams too they say. The clever thing about this first video is that it features a load of other crypto project meme charactors so it should hopefully pull in interest from those groups. Money from streams from this and future music goes into buy backs and burns. They are also putting on concerts and events. Tiny market cap and volume at the moment so I’m quite hopeful that one does something decent! Currently up 20% on the 24 hour chart. Or, it goes to shit and the people are never seen again Always the same risk. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted February 13 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 13 (edited) 1 hour ago, Genie said: Some big pumps happening now. I’ve been moving what I had left around over the past couple of years (avoiding rug pulls). One project I have a small stake in is pretty cool. It’s a record label who have a song out already featuring Busta Rhymes. (Chooky / $Choo). The video comes out later this week. They say they have big artists and events lined up. Loads of revenue streams too they say. The clever thing about this first video is that it features a load of other crypto project meme charactors so it should hopefully pull in interest from those groups. Money from streams from this and future music goes into buy backs and burns. They are also putting on concerts and events. Tiny market cap and volume at the moment so I’m quite hopeful that one does something decent! Currently up 20% on the 24 hour chart. Or, it goes to shit and the people are never seen again Always the same risk. Sounds like an interesting idea. The type of thing that tends to do well in a bull market especially if they get celebrity endorsements. I quite like the odd microcap gamble, I bought one recently called "OOFP". BRC20 token that will attempt DeFi on the Bitcoin network. Everything about it screams scam other than the fact that they partnered with Kucoin and got listed straight away. Which makes me think they must be somewhat legit (and is the only reason I bought it). But i'm not totally convinced. With a 6m supply, that investment is either going to 0 or 7 figures 0 is far more likely. Edited February 13 by PieFacE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 7 hours ago, PieFacE said: Sounds like an interesting idea. The type of thing that tends to do well in a bull market especially if they get celebrity endorsements. I quite like the odd microcap gamble, I bought one recently called "OOFP". BRC20 token that will attempt DeFi on the Bitcoin network. Everything about it screams scam other than the fact that they partnered with Kucoin and got listed straight away. Which makes me think they must be somewhat legit (and is the only reason I bought it). But i'm not totally convinced. With a 6m supply, that investment is either going to 0 or 7 figures 0 is far more likely. is the uniswap pool community deployed? It's super thin liquidity (not locked), no vol and ca isnt renounced. They don't have an official telegram or discord either. Just curious what your bull case is in this - I don't know a ton about brc20 but it feels like a pretty crowded market, especially in staking / restaking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted February 13 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, Vancvillan said: is the uniswap pool community deployed? It's super thin liquidity (not locked), no vol and ca isnt renounced. They don't have an official telegram or discord either. Just curious what your bull case is in this - I don't know a ton about brc20 but it feels like a pretty crowded market, especially in staking / restaking. Nah 1% of the total supply was bridged to Ethereum as part of a partnership with MUBI. Doesn't appear to be a lot of DeFi BRC20 projects to me, tons of ERC20 projects tho. My thinking for OOFP is simply: Supply - 6m tokens Fair Launch Project only launched in late December and immediately partnered and got listed on Kucoin. Kucoin (imo) wouldn't do this unless they were sure of a product in development. Roadmap states it should be a busy year for them Bitcoin ETF, halving and bull market hype - Lots of that money will flow into the BRC ecosystem (imo) Interest in BRC20 tokens is ever growing This is just a straight gamble for me, it's pure speculation based on the hype around BRC20 and the fact it's a bull market. I wouldn't recommend anyone else purchase it, but it was something I was comfortable doing. I managed to get in at $0.25-0.30. It hasn't hit those prices since and considering we're in a bull market it may not do again for another 18months. As I said earlier, it's either 0 or 7 figures for me on this one. 0 being far more likely. It's definitely not a project that I bought into for the fundamentals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 1 hour ago, PieFacE said: Nah 1% of the total supply was bridged to Ethereum as part of a partnership with MUBI. Doesn't appear to be a lot of DeFi BRC20 projects to me, tons of ERC20 projects tho. My thinking for OOFP is simply: Supply - 6m tokens Fair Launch Project only launched in late December and immediately partnered and got listed on Kucoin. Kucoin (imo) wouldn't do this unless they were sure of a product in development. Roadmap states it should be a busy year for them Bitcoin ETF, halving and bull market hype - Lots of that money will flow into the BRC ecosystem (imo) Interest in BRC20 tokens is ever growing This is just a straight gamble for me, it's pure speculation based on the hype around BRC20 and the fact it's a bull market. I wouldn't recommend anyone else purchase it, but it was something I was comfortable doing. I managed to get in at $0.25-0.30. It hasn't hit those prices since and considering we're in a bull market it may not do again for another 18months. As I said earlier, it's either 0 or 7 figures for me on this one. 0 being far more likely. It's definitely not a project that I bought into for the fundamentals. They could have just bought their way into Kucoin couldn’t they? It’s not necessarily a sign they are powerful people behind the scenes (is it?). Flixxo was on Kucoin and they rug pulled hard! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted February 13 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 13 (edited) 5 minutes ago, Genie said: They could have just bought their way into Kucoin couldn’t they? It’s not necessarily a sign they are powerful people behind the scenes (is it?). Flixxo was on Kucoin and they rug pulled hard! They could do but I think its costs millions to get listed on Kucoin, at least it used to. This was a fair launch, so there was no pre-sale or IDO/ICO type deal to raise funds. So the only way of listing was through partnership. You'd imagine Kucoin being a relatively large regulated exchange wouldn't partner up with scams. (there's rumours it may be Kucoin staff behind the project but pure speculation) BUT... I'm still not entirely convinced myself. If it wasn't for the extremely pumpy tokenomics and kucoin partnership I'd run a mile. Complete gamble. Edited February 13 by PieFacE 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vancvillan Posted February 13 Share Posted February 13 4 hours ago, PieFacE said: Nah 1% of the total supply was bridged to Ethereum as part of a partnership with MUBI. Doesn't appear to be a lot of DeFi BRC20 projects to me, tons of ERC20 projects tho. My thinking for OOFP is simply: Supply - 6m tokens Fair Launch Project only launched in late December and immediately partnered and got listed on Kucoin. Kucoin (imo) wouldn't do this unless they were sure of a product in development. Roadmap states it should be a busy year for them Bitcoin ETF, halving and bull market hype - Lots of that money will flow into the BRC ecosystem (imo) Interest in BRC20 tokens is ever growing This is just a straight gamble for me, it's pure speculation based on the hype around BRC20 and the fact it's a bull market. I wouldn't recommend anyone else purchase it, but it was something I was comfortable doing. I managed to get in at $0.25-0.30. It hasn't hit those prices since and considering we're in a bull market it may not do again for another 18months. As I said earlier, it's either 0 or 7 figures for me on this one. 0 being far more likely. It's definitely not a project that I bought into for the fundamentals. thanks for all the info - makes way more sense, couldn't understand why you were excited about a 35k mcap coin with no vol! I don't know much about trading on cex, am so used to onchain now that I'm probably missing a bunch of opportunities but I guess you can't be everywhere at once Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PieFacE Posted February 14 Author VT Supporter Share Posted February 14 (edited) 10 hours ago, Vancvillan said: thanks for all the info - makes way more sense, couldn't understand why you were excited about a 35k mcap coin with no vol! Ah yeah, think the detail you're looking at must be on the Ethereum side rather than the Bitcoin side. Only 1% of supply on Ethereum. Wouldn't say i'm too excited or optimisitc. Out of all my narrative plays for this bullrun it's the one I have least conviction with. High risk/reward tho at $2m marketcap. 10 hours ago, Vancvillan said: I don't know much about trading on cex, am so used to onchain now that I'm probably missing a bunch of opportunities but I guess you can't be everywhere at once I think there's probably better opportunities to get in projects early when using DEX's. By the time projects get listed on CEX's (at least the good ones) they're usually quite established. Which was one of the things that peaked my interest about OOFP. The issue with new projects is trying to identify the good ones cos there's tons of new ones popping up each day right now. Tis like picking lottery numbers really. Edited February 14 by PieFacE Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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