Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[avfc1982am]

12 minutes ago, tinker said:

He's in a war zone and anarchy is about to kick in, I'm sure Putin or one of his mates will pay the bounty and I would not be surprised if they have undercover people close to Prighozin already.

Interesting to see how this unfolds but I can't see how Prighozin can get to Putin and once Wagner are isolated they will be attacked from the air and wiped out, unless  Prighozin has alliances within the Russia military,  specifically the air force.

Prighozin doesn't need to get close to Putin for the regime in the Kremlin to collapse. He just needs the military to start switching sides which many are already doing. I'm not saying Prighozin will end up in power because I doubt very much he can wrestle it away but he could potentially collapse Russia, the war in Ukraine and be a nail in the coffin of the Putin. It's definitely possible with how quickly they've advanced. 

Putin had already turned on Prighozin before this started happening which is why Prighozin has been quick to act. The other thing is, his troops are far more battle hardened than those inside Russian territory.  

[Guest av1]

5 minutes ago, bickster said:

Glasto is on Tv, doomscrolling on my tablet  

Blokes can’t multitask 

[bickster]

10 minutes ago, av1 said:

I don’t think he’d have done this without being confident of that. 

There are signs it’s split. Last night RuAF refused to fire on the convoy, today Wagner shoots Ru Comms plane out of the sky. There is no complete one side or the other. We don’t even know if the FSB /GRU is fragmented yet and they may well be key but it certainly seems like, as a lot of people suspected, Russian has sod all military not stuck between Wagner and Ukraine. Wagner convoy is just rolling on, unopposed and picking up Ru ground troop units on the way.

[supermon]

I wonder what all this means for the economy, pretty much tanked during the Ukrainian war. Interesting what this will mean if the Ukraine war ends 

[Genie]

What’s Progozhin’s desire here? Putin to step down? 

[Genie]

1 minute ago, supermon said:

I wonder what all this means for the economy, pretty much tanked during the Ukrainian war. Interesting what this will mean if the Ukraine war ends 

Petrol prices probably already increased. 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, supermon said:

I wonder what all this means for the economy, pretty much tanked during the Ukrainian war. Interesting what this will mean if the Ukraine war ends 

Very little, the West has already adapted to not dealing with Russia

[bickster]

Just now, Genie said:

Petrol prices probably already increased. 

Absolutely no reason for that, China and India might be getting cheaper fuel still by paying in a foreign currency to a Swiss bank account but I don’t see how it affect oil any further at this stage

[bickster]

2 minutes ago, Genie said:

What’s Progozhin’s desire here? Putin to step down? 

Survival. It’s gone from a verbal battle between him and the Kremlin / MOD to attack is the best form of defence. It’s his survival instinct

[Genie]

Just now, bickster said:

Absolutely no reason for that, China and India might be getting cheaper fuel still by paying in a foreign currency to a Swiss bank account but I don’t see how it affect oil any further at this stage

The crooks running the cartel will use any excuse to push the prices up, relevant or not. I wouldn’t be surprised if we see a price rise this week. There will be some financial gymnastics to explain why civil war in Russia causes it. 

[Genie]

Just now, bickster said:

Survival. It’s gone from a verbal battle between him and the Kremlin / MOD to attack is the best form of defence. It’s his survival instinct

When Putin says “what do you want?” what does he say?

[bickster]

19 minutes ago, maqroll said:

You'd hate to see Putin employ some of the more terrible elements of his arsenal against this insurgency. 

Right now he has no clue who is on his side in all this and he's hardly going to win if he nukes his own country

[Mandy Lifeboats]

2 hours ago, av1 said:

How many forces have Russia got still stationed in Russia? 

There is a very different picture across Russia.  Rural v Urban.  East v West

At a guess.......

They have the National Guard throughout the country.   These men aren't likely to be keen on fighting Wagner.  They are not experienced in battle.  

Each city or district will have a smallish number of regular forces.  They are mainly in support roles.  They aren't going to be keen on fighting Wagner. 

The major cities will have maybe a hundred Special Forces. These are capable.  But maybe not willing to fight.  

The naval bases have ample number of sailors who could be rebadged as marines and sent to tackle problems.  Russia does not need a navy at this point.  

But redeploying the navy inland has a strong histotical significance in Russia.  It was sailors refusing to crush a popular revolt that powered the Russian revolution.  (Battleship Potemkin.  Fascinating story.  Marvelous movie)

 

Edited June 24, 2023 by Mandy Lifeboats
Added details

[Genie]

If Putin can’t convince soldiers to block a check point I doubt he can order a nuclear strike. 

[bickster]

1 minute ago, Genie said:

When Putin says “what do you want?” what does he say?

Putin won’t get to say that is my guess. This isn’t going to end in a negotiation.

[Guest av1]

Even though he’s an idiot. I do get the impression that Progozhin is old school Russia, and is genuinely patriotic rather than a chancer trying to make hey while the sun shines. 
 

I think maybe he’s gone into Ukraine thinking he’s serving the motherland, then realised that those in Moscow view him, and his Army as porns in their chess game, and it’s infuriated him. 
 

No idea what his stance on Ukraine will be in the coming weeks/months, but I think he’s being sincere when he says he wants to change the powers that be at the top of Russia 

[Mr_Dogg]

Could Prighozin be given a role within the Russian military as well as continuing within Wagner? Could that stabilise the situation? Is that out of the question?

[bannedfromHandV]

7 minutes ago, av1 said:

Even though he’s an idiot. I do get the impression that Progozhin is old school Russia, and is genuinely patriotic rather than a chancer trying to make hey while the sun shines. 
 

I think maybe he’s gone into Ukraine thinking he’s serving the motherland, then realised that those in Moscow view him, and his Army as porns in their chess game, and it’s infuriated him. 
 

No idea what his stance on Ukraine will be in the coming weeks/months, but I think he’s being sincere when he says he wants to change the powers that be at the top of Russia 

I don’t think now is the time (or any time) to be trying to apportion any kind of credit on to Prigozhin - the guy is a total, opportunistic bastard. No different to Putin and the rest of the upper echelons in Russia, it’s an internal power struggle between scumbags, the only good outcome would be for the two to annihilate eachother.

[maqroll]

12 minutes ago, bickster said:

Right now he has no clue who is on his side in all this and he's hardly going to win if he nukes his own country

He wouldn't use the big warheads, but he might use tactical nukes on convoys outside population centers. Depends how desperate he feels. He's shown nothing but contempt for the Russian people for decades, so I doubt he'd be too worried about using that kind of firepower on specific areas on Russian soil. I think he'd sooner use them domestically than anywhere else for fear of the repercussions. 

[bickster]

6 minutes ago, Mr_Dogg said:

Could Prighozin be given a role within the Russian military as well as continuing within Wagner? Could that stabilise the situation? Is that out of the question?

Shiogu also has his own PMC, Patriot, even that could get messy but Putin after his announcement this morning can no longer do that, he's called Prigozhin a traitor and a terrorist