sidcow Posted March 15, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 minute ago, Mandy Lifeboats said: Would you risk that? Well no, obviously and neither will they. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 15, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 15, 2023 1 hour ago, sidcow said: But they're never going to shoot down Russian aircraft. They're just not. The US might get to the crash site first though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jareth Posted March 15, 2023 Share Posted March 15, 2023 5 hours ago, bickster said: It is still the muddy season but... Could be something, could be nothing I think we all have the same hope about this - but are you any the wiser watching twitter for hopeful signs? It seems like hopeless optimism at present. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 32 minutes ago, Jareth said: I think we all have the same hope about this - but are you any the wiser watching twitter for hopeful signs? It seems like hopeless optimism at present. I don't watch Twitter, I use Reddit, I just post the tweets etc from twitter because its a cleaner post but... There's a bit of discussion about this tonight, nearly all the sources are Russian but consensus appears to be that this was a recon by fire, a quickish in and out with a number of possible aims. Obviously testing the defences but also maybe an attempt to get Russian to strengthen the line here and pull troops away from Vulehar and / or the bank of the river. It could also be a fient to try and telegraph future intent and they will actually push in a completely different direct when the bezdorizhzhia season is over(raputista is a Russian word). Also there seems to have been a number of battles with different concentrations of Russian forces (at least three), there are videos of burning vehicles in fields and artillery fire, one of which has been geolocated as being 34km west of Polohy which is distinctly and considerably behind what is currently considered to be the front line. I think it's important to remember that the current stalemate along the line was always predicted at this time of year because of the conditions, not only that but theres no evidence that the new promised armour is in play yet. I think a lot of it is in Poland waiting for the right time to send it into Ukraine as its far safer to store it and get it battle ready in a NATO country than in Ukraine. Some Russian spys were detained very recently in Poland attempting to report on concentrations of mechanised armour. There are definitely signs that Russia is running short of a lot of basic ordnance, missiles appear to be in short supply, even artillery shells aren't being used as much. I haven't heard of Iranian drones for quite a while and in the last wave of missiles (Last week?) the Russians used a few Khinzal hypersonic missiles, they don't launch those often because they really don't have many, it's new. It could be they did it as a show of strength, or testing them against NATO air defences but it could also be because they needed to because they are not exactly flush with missiles having used af***ton of them so far. There are even stories of soldiers being sent into battle with trenching tools for rifles (nad that came from our MOD) and even sticks, though I suspect the sticks one was bollocks, it looked to me like they were makeshift crutches rather than weapons but hey ho Russia is seemingly running short of a lot of kit 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 8 hours ago, bickster said: I don't watch Twitter, I use Reddit, I just post the tweets etc from twitter because its a cleaner post but... There's a bit of discussion about this tonight, nearly all the sources are Russian but consensus appears to be that this was a recon by fire, a quickish in and out with a number of possible aims. Obviously testing the defences but also maybe an attempt to get Russian to strengthen the line here and pull troops away from Vulehar and / or the bank of the river. It could also be a fient to try and telegraph future intent and they will actually push in a completely different direct when the bezdorizhzhia season is over(raputista is a Russian word). Also there seems to have been a number of battles with different concentrations of Russian forces (at least three), there are videos of burning vehicles in fields and artillery fire, one of which has been geolocated as being 34km west of Polohy which is distinctly and considerably behind what is currently considered to be the front line. I think it's important to remember that the current stalemate along the line was always predicted at this time of year because of the conditions, not only that but theres no evidence that the new promised armour is in play yet. I think a lot of it is in Poland waiting for the right time to send it into Ukraine as its far safer to store it and get it battle ready in a NATO country than in Ukraine. Some Russian spys were detained very recently in Poland attempting to report on concentrations of mechanised armour. There are definitely signs that Russia is running short of a lot of basic ordnance, missiles appear to be in short supply, even artillery shells aren't being used as much. I haven't heard of Iranian drones for quite a while and in the last wave of missiles (Last week?) the Russians used a few Khinzal hypersonic missiles, they don't launch those often because they really don't have many, it's new. It could be they did it as a show of strength, or testing them against NATO air defences but it could also be because they needed to because they are not exactly flush with missiles having used af***ton of them so far. There are even stories of soldiers being sent into battle with trenching tools for rifles (nad that came from our MOD) and even sticks, though I suspect the sticks one was bollocks, it looked to me like they were makeshift crutches rather than weapons but hey ho Russia is seemingly running short of a lot of kit Agreed. The offensives are never going to come in March. I expect that we could see a counter offensive near Orikhiv mid-April the earliest, and around Bakhmut come spring\summer. The tactic seems to be to hold Russia and expend as much of their manpower\equipment as possible. To be fair this tactic is working a treat, though with losses to UA too. Wagner is essentially a non-fighting force now due to UAF grinding them down with defensive warfare. It has worked. What was supposed to be Russia's forte has turned into their nightmare. They are not good enough at attritional warfare due to something so simple as HIMARS. Ukraine are taking out essentially all logistics and manpower concentrations within HIMARS range. The long war is definitely Ukraine's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 9 hours ago, bickster said: The US might get to the crash site first though If Russia touch that drone, in international waters, then there will be trouble won’t there? They would have been told to leave it alone I’m certain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 Posted for @Jareth The ISW posted this yesterday and agrees with Ukraine's assessment that the Russian offensive is culminating as the daily attacks have significantly reduced in the last week. More about Wagner and other stuff on the link Quote The overall pace of Russian operations in Ukraine appears to have decreased compared to previous weeks. A spokesperson for the Ukrainian Joint Press Center of the Tavriisk Defense Forces, Colonel Oleksiy Dmytrashkivskyi, stated on March 15 that Russian offensive actions have decreased significantly over the last week and noted that daily Russian ground attacks have decreased from 90 to 100 attacks per day to 20 to 29 per day.[1] Dmytrashkivskyi reported that Russian forces have somewhat lost offensive potential due to significant manpower and equipment losses.[2] Dmytrashkivskyi’s statements are consistent with ISW’s general observation regarding the pace of Russian operations along the entire frontline in Ukraine. The Russian offensive operation in Luhansk Oblast is likely nearing culmination, if it has not already culminated, although Russia has committed most elements of at least three divisions to the Svatove-Kreminna line.[3] Russian forces have made only minimal tactical gains along the entire Luhansk Oblast frontline over the last week, and Ukrainian forces have likely recently managed to conduct counterattacks and regain territory in Luhansk Oblast.[4] ISW has been unable to confirm the commitment of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division (1st Guards Tank Army, Western Military District) to the offensive in Luhansk Oblast since certain unspecified elements reportedly deployed to Luhansk Oblast in January--the only large formation assessed to be operational but not yet engaged.[5] It is unclear if the 2nd Motor Rifle Division has already deployed and has not been observed or if it is waiting to deploy to either Luhansk Oblast or other areas of the front. The commitment of two or three of the 2nd Motor Rifle Division’s constituent regiments, however, is unlikely to significantly delay or reverse the culmination of the Russian offensive in Luhansk Oblast, especially considering that at least five Russian regiments have definitely been fully committed in this area, likely along with several others, but Russian forces have still been unable to make substantial gains.[6] [...] ISW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, Genie said: If Russia touch that drone, in international waters, then there will be trouble won’t there? They would have been told to leave it alone I’m certain. Turkey is likely already at the site making sure Russia don't get anywhere near the drone. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 There’s video now publicly available of the Russian plane dumping fuel on the Reaper. Just seen it on my iPad. here’s a still from it https://apple.news/A6RWHnuXPRtODUOTabz_AWA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 14 minutes ago, blandy said: There’s video now publicly available of the Russian plane dumping fuel on the Reaper. Just seen it on my iPad. here’s a still from it https://apple.news/A6RWHnuXPRtODUOTabz_AWA Ouch, that could be interpreted in many ways by the US/Nato. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Popular Post magnkarl Posted March 16, 2023 Popular Post Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) A classic. Edited March 16, 2023 by magnkarl 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 1 hour ago, blandy said: There’s video now publicly available of the Russian plane dumping fuel on the Reaper. Just seen it on my iPad. here’s a still from it https://apple.news/A6RWHnuXPRtODUOTabz_AWA Tune in next week to see Dick Dastardly attempt to stop the drone using a demolition ball hung from a Sopwith Camel. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 48 minutes ago, Genie said: Ouch, that could be interpreted in many ways by the US/Nato. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 3 minutes ago, blandy said: Could that be interpreted as an attack on the US? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2023 I would say they went to smoke it but made an error and gave it a glancing blow. Probably lucky he didn't take himself out as well. That really would have caused an incident though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sidcow Posted March 16, 2023 VT Supporter Share Posted March 16, 2023 Good of the Russians to give the US a really good close up look at their jet though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Genie Posted March 16, 2023 Share Posted March 16, 2023 (edited) Ball is in Americas court now. They have a ticket to escalate if they deem it the right thing to do. By releasing the images are they (US) laying the ground work for justification of what follows? They certainly aren’t playing it down. Edited March 16, 2023 by Genie Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 2 minutes ago, Genie said: Could that be interpreted as an attack on the US? Not really. There’s a few things. First is that a nation in a war situation is “allowed” to take action similar to this in terms of its enemy being provided with intelligence gathered in this way. That’s a crap description by me, but hopefully you get the gist. The more reasonable interpretation is the poor airmanship one. But repeating it (actually downing the UAV) could be perceived differently. NATO doesn’t want to take part in a war with Russia directly and vice versa. I guess a possible outcome will be fighter escort, perhaps and lots of behind the scenes discussion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 13 minutes ago, Genie said: By releasing the images are they (US) laying the ground work for justification of what follows? They certainly aren’t playing it down. I think they’re just exposing the Russian claims as lies in the PR war for global public and government understanding. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted March 16, 2023 Moderator Share Posted March 16, 2023 37 minutes ago, Genie said: Ball is in Americas court now. They have a ticket to escalate if they deem it the right thing to do. By releasing the images are they (US) laying the ground work for justification of what follows? They certainly aren’t playing it down. The escalation is Turkey allowing US Warships through the canal into the Black Sea 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts