bickster Posted January 22, 2023 Moderator Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 minutes ago, blandy said: I don't see it that way. It's not going to happen. Unless Germany consents Ukraine won't get the Leopard 2 tanks is my take on it. As much as arms export can be a dodgy affair, if export licenses are breached against the will of the originating nation, there's all kinds of hell to pay. I'm not talking about alleged backhanders and blind eyes and all that stuff, but an open and clear, deliberate act of totally breaching the applicable laws, contracts, agreements and so on...I'd be absolutely astonished if that happened. No I agree, it not as simple as i painted and your right, it's highy unlikely to happen without German consent but Poland seem hell bent on doing it too, something will eventually give I guess Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 22, 2023 Moderator Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 minute ago, blandy said: In the Ukrainian cold, they'd love to have a nice plater of FC&G Wagnerite food 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mandy Lifeboats Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 31 minutes ago, blandy said: In the Ukrainian cold, they'd love to have a nice plater of FC&G That's a war crime. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 **** war crime. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 22, 2023 Moderator Share Posted January 22, 2023 US appears to be sticking 2 fingers up at Germany Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chrisp65 Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, bickster said: When all the countries that currently have the Leopard 2 and want to supply some to Ukraine finally tell Germany to stick their licensing deal up their rectum and supply them anyway, your scenario is in greater danger than if Germany agreed with the transfer to Ukraine because they'd still have a credible licensing deal and a degree of control. If the other countries go it alone anyway, Germany looks to have a piece of paper that means nothing The best result for Russia is obviously that no tanks or insufficient numbers of tanks turn up for Ukraine. Longer term, it might be an acceptable result for Russia that the licensing descends in to chaos and in fighting and a loss of trust in contracts between NATO nations. It’s a bugger of a problem whilst Germany has doubts or internal political blockers. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 1 hour ago, chrisp65 said: The best result for Russia is obviously that no tanks or insufficient numbers of tanks turn up for Ukraine. Longer term, it might be an acceptable result for Russia that the licensing descends in to chaos and in fighting and a loss of trust in contracts between NATO nations. It’s a bugger of a problem whilst Germany has doubts or internal political blockers. At this point, it’s really unclear to me what Germany can be genuinely concerned about re supplying weapons / tanks. The argument at the start of the conflict that this would trigger WWIII / nuclear war / etc has surely fallen back, and we’re approaching a period of warmer weather in Europe when the energy crisis should start to ease up somewhat. What is actually holding them back? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 22, 2023 Share Posted January 22, 2023 https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-germany-wont-keep-poland-from-sending-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64480279 Quote Germany would not stand in the way if Poland sent its German-made Leopard 2 tanks to Ukraine, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock said on Sunday in an interview with French television LCI. Asked what would happen if Poland went ahead and sent its Leopard 2 tanks without German approval, Baerbock said: "For the moment the question has not been asked, but if we were asked we would not stand in the way." "We know how important these tanks are and this is why we are discussing this now with our partners," the German foreign minister added. "We need to make sure people's lives are saved and Ukraine's territory liberated." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) 11 hours ago, KentVillan said: https://www.dw.com/en/ukraine-updates-germany-wont-keep-poland-from-sending-tanks-to-ukraine/a-64480279 The reality is likely that they're seeing the shitshow they're creating by sitting on their hands and the likely repercussions this has for their future weapons sales. Germany has a great defense industry, but this is tarring their brand and must be frustrating the actual industry a lot. Then again, you can't have it two ways. They want to be the Eurozone's supplier of tanks/spgs and AFV's, at this rate they won't be either of those. Sweden will likely take over that role with the archer and CV, and the US will likely be the tank supplier. In other news, other countries are doing their bit. Even African ones. Edited January 23, 2023 by magnkarl 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The Fun Factory Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: That's terrible. And what is it of all? A deluded nutter in the Kremlin. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
magnkarl Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 (edited) And again today Ukraine is showing the aftermath of Russia's "offensive" in Zaporozhzhia yesterday, totally dismantled by artillery and mortars. The result? No change in lines, visual confirmation of 5 Russian IFV's broken\captured, 1 Russian tank destroyed, 30 Russian soldiers KIA'd. These aren't Wagner, but they are sure acting like it by running against entrenched positions with no cover. Edited January 23, 2023 by magnkarl Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HolteExile Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, magnkarl said: The reality is likely that they're seeing the shitshow they're creating by sitting on their hands and the likely repercussions this has for their future weapons sales. Germany has a great defense industry, but this is tarring their brand and must be frustrating the actual industry a lot. Then again, you can't have it two ways. They want to be the Eurozone's supplier of tanks/spgs and AFV's, at this rate they won't be either of those. Sweden will likely take over that role with the archer and CV, and the US will likely be the tank supplier. In other news, other countries are doing their bit. Even African ones. Interesting. The obvious benefit there is if it's Russian/ CIS tanks the Moroccans are sending, there is less of a learning curve for the troops on the ground. The Ukrainians need the hardware NOW. Not the promise of something (possibly) tomorrow. Or in six months. If other nations possess these in decent numbers and are in a position to send ASAP, perhaps there is scope for NATO (or specific members) to compensate them. Either financially, or providing them with updated kit at a later date etc. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 49 minutes ago, The Fun Factory said: That's terrible. And what is it of all? A deluded nutter in the Kremlin. It's Russian liberation. Unfortunately, what it doesn't tell you is that in the small print the liberation only covers land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 32 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: It's Russian liberation. Unfortunately, what it doesn't tell you is that in the small print the liberation only covers land. I guess they don’t really care about the people so long as they have the clear path to Crimea, although even that looks like a delusional objective at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 11 minutes ago, KentVillan said: I guess they don’t really care about the people so long as they have the clear path to Crimea, although even that looks like a delusional objective at this point Resources too. It's not just about the land bridge imo. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 23, 2023 Moderator Share Posted January 23, 2023 This is an interesting read. The return of Putin shill Medvedchuck to the public arena. Quote What the Return of Kremlin Ally Medvedchuk Means for the War in Ukraine If no “party of peace” is emerging organically in Ukraine, Moscow appears prepared to create one artificially in order to hold peace talks with Medvedchuk instead of Zelensky: effectively, with itself. Viktor Medvedchuk, for a long time a leading pro-Russia figure in Ukrainian politics, had until now been lying low since he turned up in Russia last year. A personal friend of Russian President Vladimir Putin, the Ukrainian politician was detained trying to flee Ukraine last year, and was subsequently brought to Russia as part of a prisoner exchange. Now the publication of an article by Medvedchuk in the Russian newspaper Izvestia appears to herald his return to the public arena. The concept for his comeback is clear: the Kremlin apparently still sees Medvedchuk as the leader of the pro-Russian political bloc in Ukraine, and is only prepared to discuss peace terms with him, not with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky. It suggests that the Kremlin is frantically looking for a way out of the dead end it has backed itself into in Ukraine. [...] Carnegie Endowment for Global Peace. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KentVillan Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 6 minutes ago, avfc1982am said: Resources too. It's not just about the land bridge imo. Yeah true, similar story in Moldova Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
avfc1982am Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 1 minute ago, KentVillan said: Yeah true, similar story in Moldova Greed is behind every war and as much as we like to think it isn't, we just kid ourselves. Same shit different day with the poor manipulated into doing the bidding of the rich for some ridiculous reason, that more often than not has been manufactured to fit some moral standard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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