Russia and its “Special Operation” in Ukraine

[bickster]

4 minutes ago, LondonLax said:

It’s probably the White House official you need to ‘feel for’.

https://www.smh.com.au/world/europe/russian-mercenary-boss-wants-ukraine-town-for-its-underground-cities-20230108-p5cb3a.html

Yes, obviously he knew of their existence but I doubt he knows all the entrances and exits like the Ukrainians do. It's also very clear he forgot to tell his men

[Awol]

16 minutes ago, bickster said:

Well of course they know about them now

If you actually believe that is the reason they've spend months on end trying to attack Bakhmut, I feel for you

The reason they were attacking Bakhmut was that it was logistically important (but no longer is due to the advanced front), since the need for Bakhmut has changed, it's anyone's guess why but it will probably boil down to pride and idiocy. It certainly isn't to play hide the nonexistent tank or wacky racers 100ft underground

Bakhmut is a target because it opens up an avenue of attack from the south to Kramatorsk and Slovyansk, the two major urban centres of Donetsk Oblast remaining in Ukrainian hands.

Since the northern option to attack those cities collapsed with the counteroffensive retaking Izyum and Lyman, it’s been Russia’s main strategic play to try and capture the rest of the Donbas, per Putin’s orders. To do that they need Bakhmut.

[bickster]

32 minutes ago, Awol said:

...and capture the rest of the Donbas, per Putin’s orders.To do that they need Bakhmut.

That falls into pride and idiocy

[avfc1982am]

6 hours ago, KentVillan said:

Strong disagree. Russia has been a basket case for decades, Putin came to power as a strong man because it was such a mess. Yes he’s made it a lot worse, and he is an evil piece of shit, but if we pin everything on Putin, we’ll be in for a shock when Russia continues to be a basket case post-Putin.

i wasn’t btw trying to make a Corbynesque anti-NATO argument. I think Ukraine genuinely wants to align with the west / EU / NATO and has good reasons to do so.

Very much pro Ukraine and sending arms to Ukraine. Just think turning this into a Lord of the Rings type of narrative will cloud judgment and stop us from ever fixing this situation long term.

As @sidcowsaid, the expectation in some quarters that the ordinary Russian should be actively working to overthrow Putin is so farfetched. Look what happens to everyone who tries to do this. And yet you see so many takes on pro-Ukraine corners of the internet saying that Russians who don’t stand up to Putin are complicit.

I'm not aiming this post at you Kent but just my thoughts.

I'm very conflicted with this idea Russians are unable to do anything to try and stop this war. Less than 1% of the Russian population is currently deployed in Ukraine whilst the rest remain pro war, passive, apolitical, or just ignorant. Whilst the Russian government and propaganda machine in turn discuss and plan the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians, many in the West complain about, " Oh the poor Russians.... They don't all want this to happen, there is nothing they can do".    

Lets just dismiss a population of 147m as scared and unable to stand up for themselves or oppose the governments and it's actions. Whilst ignoring the facts that if anyone spends enough time looking through Russian news, interviews with citizens, that Russia and a huge number of it's population are all for the destruction and death of Ukraine and expansion of mother Russia. That most Russian's are leading normal lives with no indication of a Country at war, no effect on them personally other than being inconvenienced in their materialistic purchases. 

Moscow population - 12m  St Petersburg - 5m. If either of these 2 Cities and the citizens wanted an end to this war they could make it happen imo. Not with a couple of thousand women on the streets and activists who are easily rounded up while the men hide away, but by protesting on masse, opposing the governments actions, something they haven't even attempted to do with any real vigour since the start of this 'Special Military Operation'. It's not like they haven't before and even recently when Navalny was trying to oppose Putin just a few years ago, there were far more people on the streets then. 

Look at Ukrainians in 2014 when they'd had enough of political corruption and the oppressive influence of Russia over the nation. They collectively brought down a government for the right to gain independence. This idea that governments cannot be broken or brought down is also far fetched.  

I think the be all and end all here is Russians as a collective population are not fussed enough to do anything about the actions of the government at the moment. Ordinary Russians, just as other populations around the world will rise up against the government if the cost of supporting them becomes too great a price to live with.   

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

Are you suggesting he’s there to provide the right wing tory balance?

 

I only actually recognised the top two names, but that kind of set up my presumptions for all the others.

Mick is an Irish Independent MEP.  He is famous for his scruffy appearance and "interesting" business dealings.  His agenda is to criticise the EU,  NATO, UK, Israel and USA at every possible opportunity. 

He uses the Ukraine war to highlight Western hypocrisy in similar matters (Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc).  Whilst his points are normally valid he is happy to condem the West for doing things in the past, but stays silent on Russia. 

 

 

[avfc1982am]

1 minute ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Mick is an Irish Independent MEP.  He is famous for his scruffy appearance and "interesting" business dealings.  His agenda is to criticise the EU,  NATO, UK, Israel and USA at every possible opportunity. 

He uses the Ukraine war to highlight Western hypocrisy in similar matters (Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc).  Whilst his points are normally valid he is happy to condem the West for doing things in the past, but stays silent on Russia. 

 

 

The Irish Galloway then? 

[KentVillan]

6 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I'm not aiming this post at you Kent but just my thoughts.

I'm very conflicted with this idea Russians are unable to do anything to try and stop this war. Less than 1% of the Russian population is currently deployed in Ukraine whilst the rest remain pro war, passive, apolitical, or just ignorant. Whilst the Russian government and propaganda machine in turn discuss and plan the destruction of Ukraine and Ukrainians, many in the West complain about, " Oh the poor Russians.... They don't all want this to happen, there is nothing they can do".    

Lets just dismiss a population of 147m as scared and unable to stand up for themselves or oppose the governments and it's actions. Whilst ignoring the facts that if anyone spends enough time looking through Russian news, interviews with citizens, that Russia and a huge number of it's population are all for the destruction and death of Ukraine and expansion of mother Russia. That most Russian's are leading normal lives with no indication of a Country at war, no effect on them personally other than being inconvenienced in their materialistic purchases. 

Moscow population - 12m  St Petersburg - 5m. If either of these 2 Cities and the citizens wanted an end to this war they could make it happen imo. Not with a couple of thousand women on the streets and activists who are easily rounded up while the men hide away, but by protesting on masse, opposing the governments actions, something they haven't even attempted to do with any real vigour since the start of this 'Special Military Operation'. It's not like they haven't before and even recently when Navalny was trying to oppose Putin just a few years ago, there were far more people on the streets then. 

Look at Ukrainians in 2014 when they'd had enough of political corruption and the oppressive influence of Russia over the nation. They collectively brought down a government for the right to gain independence. This idea that governments cannot be broken or brought down is also far fetched.  

I think the be all and end all here is Russians as a collective population are not fussed enough to do anything about the actions of the government at the moment. Ordinary Russians, just as other populations around the world will rise up against the government if the cost of supporting them becomes too great a price to live with.   

 

What do you propose ordinary Russians do? It's not a comparable situation with Ukraine. The 2014 protestors did risk their lives, but not to the same extent - about 100 people were killed. And they were protesting for themselves and their own freedom, whereas what we're asking Russians to do here is protest for their neighbours.

Remember many Russians *have* tried to oppose Putin, and most of them have ended up either fleeing the country, or being imprisoned or murdered. Or are doing things that aren't reported anywhere.

Russia has been structured for decades to protect the regime and the elites, and prevent protests from taking off. The ordinary Russian is incredibly poor, doesn't speak any language other than Russian (or maybe their minority language) so can't easily access the same information we can.

I'm not saying we should feel sympathy for them, I'm just saying they're not an innately evil people - or no more so than anywhere else. This is largely a consequence of the country's history. It will take decades to unwind.

Edited January 8, 2023 by KentVillan

[Mandy Lifeboats]

Just now, avfc1982am said:

The Irish Galloway then? 

Yes.  

I have exactly the same criticism of Galloway. 

[avfc1982am]

Just now, KentVillan said:

What do you propose ordinary Russians do? It's not a comparable situation with Ukraine. The 2014 protestors did risk their lives, but not to the same extent - about 100 people were killed.

Remember many Russians *have* tried to oppose Putin, and most of them have ended up either fleeing the country, or being imprisoned or murdered. Or are doing things that aren't reported anywhere.

Russia has been structured for decades to protect the regime and the elites, and prevent protests from taking off. The ordinary Russian is incredibly poor, doesn't speak any language other than Russian (or maybe their minority language) so can't easily access the same information we can.

I'm not saying we should feel sympathy for them, I'm just saying they're not an innately evil people - or no more so than anywhere else. This is largely a consequence of the country's history. It will take decades to unwind.

I'm not suggesting Russians do anything. If they are happy or content to continue under the rule of Putin it's on them. Nobody else. 

And I'm certainly not suggesting Russians are innately evil. That's just ridiculous. But this idea that they are not capable of standing up for themselves and ultimately oppose a government if they wish is, I think nonsense. 

The bottom line is not enough of them oppose what is happening. That's the point I'm making. And if such a time comes when the population have had enough the you can bet the ordinary Russian will do extraordinary things for change. 

 

[bickster]

13 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Mick is an Irish Independent MEP.  He is famous for his scruffy appearance and "interesting" business dealings.  His agenda is to criticise the EU,  NATO, UK, Israel and USA at every possible opportunity. 

He uses the Ukraine war to highlight Western hypocrisy in similar matters (Palestine, Iraq, Syria, Afghanistan etc).  Whilst his points are normally valid he is happy to condem the West for doing things in the past, but stays silent on Russia. 

 

 

 

9 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

Yes.  

I have exactly the same criticism of Galloway. 

And Clare Daly is the exact same beast, she's Independents4Change other MEP

[KentVillan]

2 minutes ago, avfc1982am said:

I'm not suggesting Russians do anything. If they are happy or content to continue under the rule of Putin it's on them. Nobody else. 

And I'm certainly not suggesting Russians are innately evil. That's just ridiculous. But this idea that they are not capable of standing up for themselves and ultimately oppose a government if they wish is, I think nonsense. 

The bottom line is not enough of them oppose what is happening. That's the point I'm making. And if such a time comes when the population have had enough the you can bet the ordinary Russian will do extraordinary things for change. 

 

But Russia isn't a democracy, it's an authoritarian regime with a deeply rooted secret police and the capacity to send people to prison for life, or even execute them, for minor crimes. Protesting in these societies is 1000x more dangerous and less effective than doing the same in the countries we've all grown up in.

Putin doesn't need genuine popular support, that's the problem. He can engineer it.

[KentVillan]

There's a whole page on Wikipedia about opposition to Putin in Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_Vladimir_Putin_in_Russia

Quote

• 4 History
  • 4.1 2006–2008 Dissenters' March
  • 4.2 2009–2011 Strategy-31
  • 4.3 2011–2013 Russian protests
  • 4.4 2014 anti-war protests
  • 4.5 2017–2018 Russian protests
  • 4.6 2018 Russian pension protests
  • 4.7 2019 Russian protests
  • 4.8 2020–21 Khabarovsk Krai protests
  • 4.9 2021 Russian protests
  • 4.10 2021 Russian election protests
  • 4.11 2022 anti-war protests
•  

The problem is it's so hard to achieve anything because Putin's core ability is quashing protests and retaining control over Russia internally. All the stuff he does externally is mostly in that context... it's the main thing he cares about.

[magnkarl]

21 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

There is part of me that would be genuinely fascinated to go along to this.

 

I’ve noticed the last time I’ve gone through Monmouth there were a few ‘NO2NATO’ stickers, then last week, a sign stuck above the tunnel.

Didn’t have Monmouth down as the birthplace of the revolution, but there you go.

It's at least good that these Pro-Putin shills put together posters for our authorities of who's worst, in ranking order. I mean, Mick Wallace? Really? Putin must've run out of cash.

[villa89]

13 hours ago, avfc1982am said:

It's not like they haven't before and even recently when Navalny was trying to oppose Putin just a few years ago, there were far more people on the streets then. 

And how's Navalny now, and his associates? It's crazy to think Russian's can protest against this regime and bring it down. It's just not possible in a dictatorship. 

[magnkarl]

12 hours ago, KentVillan said:

There's a whole page on Wikipedia about opposition to Putin in Russia: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opposition_to_Vladimir_Putin_in_Russia

The problem is it's so hard to achieve anything because Putin's core ability is quashing protests and retaining control over Russia internally. All the stuff he does externally is mostly in that context... it's the main thing he cares about.

I went to a lecture in Stockholm on Russia many years ago and one of the speakers was a now exiled Russian. His main explanation for why Putin was still in power (this was just after Georgia 2008 afair), he spoke about this unwritten agreement between the Kreml and the people about the people not protesting if Putin didn't interfere too much in their lives and their increasing standard of living.

This war has and will continue to impact the people's lives. It's just a matter of time before Putin will need to recruit from other areas than his ethnic minority southern and eastern regions. There simply isn't another million able bodied combat aged men in these regions now that he's lost so many of them already.

The speaker also said that the most likely areas for such a revolution to ever start is Yekaterinburg (had an independent mayor until he was jailed recently), Dagestan, Chechnya or in the far East where the communist party still has a considerable vote in local elections.

[magnkarl]

11 minutes ago, villa89 said:

And how's Navalny now, and his associates? It's crazy to think Russian's can protest against this regime and bring it down. It's just not possible in a dictatorship. 

Ceausescu, Hoxha, Salazar, Milosevic, Duvalier, Mobarak, Gaddafi, Hussein, Pol Pot, Idi Amin etc ring a bell?

Or alternatively 1917 in Russia, which specifically overthrew a dictator-like Tzar?

It's not far-fetched for Russia to end up in a revolution, I just think it'll take much more than it would in i.e Romania due to the Russian population being treated like dirt as a way of life for decades.

Edited January 9, 2023 by magnkarl

[magnkarl]

 

[avfc1982am]

46 minutes ago, villa89 said:

And how's Navalny now, and his associates? It's crazy to think Russian's can protest against this regime and bring it down. It's just not possible in a dictatorship. 

I also said in the post Russians are not at the point of opposing Putin anyway. And dictatorships get overthrown all the time. Do your research. Russia is a prime example of this. 

Just because Navalny is in jail doesn't mean there is no opposition to Putin elsewhere.

 

[Mandy Lifeboats]

The US is training 500 Ukrainians PER MONTH to operate the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.

It has a crew of 3.  

Even if you say its 10 crew per vehicle to allow for time away from the fighting - that still indicates a lot of hardware heading into Ukraine every month.  

[magnkarl]

19 minutes ago, Mandy Lifeboats said:

The US is training 500 Ukrainians PER MONTH to operate the Bradley Fighting Vehicle.

It has a crew of 3.  

Even if you say its 10 crew per vehicle to allow for time away from the fighting - that still indicates a lot of hardware heading into Ukraine every month.  

And by looking at the French light tank being sent you can see the same. NATO sources are throwing about 140 pieces around in conversation. Maybe the French got angry when Rogozin sent that letter to the French ambassador calling them bloodthirsty and threatening if they were to deliver more aid like the Caesar that hit Rogozin's birthday party?

It's typically French to do exactly the opposite of what people tell them anyway, here's hoping that Putin calls Macron and delivers more threats.