07/08 v 06/07 Comparison - After week 38 (Season over)

[Adam2003]

Unless you are confusing our goal difference column of +11 to be our position relative to last season

Please note the five word disclaimer at the start of my last post.

[BOF]

No probs, happy to help

[BOF]

Newcastle's beating recorded.

Next up is a road trip in Reading. Last season we got a 2-0 beating at the hands of the Royals in the Madejski. Coincidentally it ALSO happened on week 27 ... this week ..... spooky

Although this week last season Reading were 6th in the league and we were 13th. This time the roles are reversed and then some.

[BOF]

Reading victory recorded.

[BOF]

Arsenal draw recorded. Very coincidentally we've now played Reading & Arsenal in week 27 & 28 of this AND last season....

Next up is a home tie against Boro. Last season's tie was a disappointing 1-1 draw. That would NOT do this season.

Week 29 last season was another disappointing 1-1 draw, this time at Craven Cottage against Fulham.

[OutByEaster?]

Next up is a home tie against Boro. Last season's tie was a disappointing 1-1 draw. That would NOT do this season.

Grrrr.

[kurtsimonw]

Next up is a home tie against Boro. Last season's tie was a disappointing 1-1 draw. That would NOT do this season.

Week 29 last season was another disappointing 1-1 draw, this time at Craven Cottage against Fulham.

Well, it did all point towards a 1-1 draw for this game.

[BOF]

1-1 Boro draw recorded.

Next up we're away to Pompey. We drew 2-2 in Pompey last season. That'd be a good result this time around.

Week 30 last season was a 0-0 home draw with Liverplop.

Thankfully Pompey have not applied for the intertoto so they don't come into consideration in the final league table for European qualification. Although obviously a bad result could bring Blackburn into play as they face the currently woefully off-form West Ham @ the Boleyn. Come on you 'ammers eh ? :?

[BOF]

Pompey defeat recorded. We're now 'only' 15 points ahead of this stage last season.

Week 31 is a home tie against Sunderland. There is no corresponding fixture from last season but the season before was a 2-1 victory for Villa.

Week 31 last season was a 1-1 home draw with Everton. If we don't win against Sunderland then even our Intertoto hopes are looking grim as Blackburn and Citeh are heavy favourites in their ties.

[BOF]

Week 31 defeat recorded.

We are now 8pts up on the same opposition as last season and 14pts up on the same stage last season. Kudos on the 42,640 sell-out home to Blunderland !!

Next up in week 32 is a bloody away tie against Manchester United. Just what we need to get our European aspirations back on track.

Last season away to United was a comprehensive win for us ........ I mean them. 3-1 to be exact. I'm expecting nothing better this time around as they march towards yet another Premier League title.

Week 32 last season was a 2-1 away victory against Blackburn Rovers and boy oh boy how we could do with a result like that now.

In the Intertoto race, Blackburn face a trip to a rejuvenated Reading. We need big favours from Coppell's men. While Man City face a trip to Birmingham City. A game that will surely test the loyalty and resolve of all Villa fans yearning for both Man City to slip up and the noses to go down. Maybe we'd take a draw in that one..... We should also probably be cheering Roy Keane's men on this weekend home to a West Ham side who still have an outside chance of Intertoto qualification. Best to nail their coffin shut as soon as possible.

[leviramsey]

Now that I'm blogging my table predictions in a more formal way, I've developed a new twist on the form table. Basically I define table momentum as the sum of changes since the last time that the sign of the change from the previous projection changed (if that makes any sense at all). Perhaps I'd describe this as "expectation-adjusted form" or something like that...

Obligatory disclaimer: I've only been blogging table predictions for a few weeks.

Chelsea: +3.4 points (2 weeks)

Sunderland: +3.2 (2)

Man Utd: +3.1 (2)

Spurs: +2.5 (1)

Blackburn: +2.4 (1)

West Ham: +2.4 (2)

Reading: +2.0 (1)

Newcastle: +1.6 (1)

Boro: +1.5 (2)

=== THE MENDOZA LINE ===

Man City: -0.2 (1)

Liverpool: -0.5 (1)

Derby: -0.7 (2)

Wigan: -1.0 (1)

Fulham: -1.9 (1)

Blose: -2.2 (2)

Bolton: -2.7 (2)

Pompey: -3.3 (1)

Arsenal: -4.3 (2)

Everton: -4.3 (2)

Villa: -5.6 (2)

[BOF]

So what you're saying is you now predict us to accrue ~6pts fewer than you predicted last time of asking ? Am I reading it correctly ?

[leviramsey]

Correct...

I had us in 6th with an expectation of 67.2 points, 4.3 points clear of Pompey. Now I'm seeing 61.6 points and 7th place, 2.7 points below Pompey (and 4 points clear of Man Citeh; 4.1 clear of Blackburn).

[markeefc]

I know why people are dissappointed at the moment, but when you se the Y on Y comparison, and ignore the performances of late for a while, its still bloody amazing that we are 14pts, 18 goals and 7 places better off.

[BOF]

Man Utd loss recorded.

We're now 11 pts better off than last season.

Week 33 last season was a 1-1 home draw with Wigan. Next up for us is a home tie against Bolton. Bolton will be a tough nut to crack. They are on the verge of being the 3rd team to go down and they will be fighting for their lives. It sees the return of Gary Cahill to Villa Park. Last season home to Bolton we actually lost 1-0 so we don't need reminding what they can do. In our current form we can't expect anything unless we commit ourselves properly. We need to win this one, but so do Bolton considering Wigan play Birmingham aswell. It will be an intense match and I think Bolton are far more dangerous than their league position suggests. But as long as Jlloyd & McCann play we should be OK. I'm not overly confident though ...

[SoccerHQ]

Bolton have a good record at VP.

Fear a 1-1 tbh due to the old boys coming back and performing above their capabilities but this is still a game we should be winning. Probably too much to ask for a clean sheet though!

[BOF]

Excellent stuff.

Our attendance home to Bolton is up over 10,000 on last season !!!

Last season we lost this fixture 1-0. This season we win 4-0. We are now 13pts better off than at this stage last season. We are now 11pts better off against the same opposition.

We are back in pole position for the Intertoto spot. We face Derby and the noses next. Blackburn face Liverpool and Man Utd. Excellent stuff.

We kept a league clean sheet for the first time since we (coincidentally) won 4-0 against Blackburn.

The team look to have got their confidence back. Some will say 'You don't play Bolton every week', nope but we'll be playing them for the next 2 weeks anyway

With some confidence and some luck we'll be 7pts ahead of Blackburn going into the Everton game. Fingers crossed.

---------

Week 34 last season was our customary routine victory at the Riverside. A 3-1 victory to be precise. We've already beaten Boro 3-0 in the corresponding fixture this season.

Next up for us is a daunting trip to 'Pride' (sic) Park to face the already mathematically doomed Derby County. This fixture last season (against the league's bottom side) was a frustrating and annoying 0-0 draw against a determined Watford. Thankfully Derby don't have Watford's ability to defend and while Watford managed an impressive 9 clean sheets last season, Derby have so far managed 3.

Suffice it to say, if we have any aspirations towards Europe, we need to be winning these games and comfortably. Everton showed that Derby can be stubborn, and in their own backyard with nothing riding on it, they can afford to express themselves. Hopefully we'll steamroller them the way we did to Bolton.

[BOF]

Record Derby victory recorded.

Next up is the visit of the noses who of course were not in this league last season, and with a bit of luck and with a bit of help from us wont be in it next season either. The equivalent corresponding fixture last season was the home tie against Charlton which we won 2-0.

Week 35 last season was a 0-0 home draw against Portsmouth as they stumbled towards failing European qualification.

[leviramsey]

As this is "the statcave", I figured that this post wouldn't be too amiss...

About a decade and a half ago, I read an article that put forth a better statistical basis for determining the most valuable player in baseball. The metric devised was called Games Won At Bat, and was designed to eliminate great games in blowout victories (thus amplifying the importance of close games).

I figure that similar logic can be applied to football, and so I present Points Won With Goals. The basic idea is to determine a point value for every goal scored and thus to apportion credit for our success this season. Accordingly, in any loss where we did not concede an own goal, any goal we score is worth nothing (because our points haul from the game wouldn't have changed if we hadn't played the goalscorer). Any player who scored the margin of victory (thus one goal suffices for, say, a 2-1 victory but you'd have to score 3 goals to get credit for a 4-1) gets a share of either 2 or 3 points (depending on whether they exceeded the margin of victory... thus if 2 players each score 2 in a 4-3 victory, they'll each get credit for 1.50 points). If no players achieve such a share than the difference in result between Villa not scoring (offensively, so own goals for Villa would still count) and the actual result is apportioned amongst the goals. Any goal scored in a draw is worth a share of a point. Own goals conceded by Villa likewise count negatively if they had any impact on the result.

v Liverpool:    Laursen -1.00 (-1.00)

                Barry 1.00 (1.00)

@ Newcastle:    None awarded (ng)

v Fulham:       Maloney 2.00 (2.00)

v Chelsea:      Knight 1.00 (1.00)

                Agbonlahor 1.00 (1.00)

@ ManCity:      None awarded (loss)

v Everton:      Carew 1.00 (1.00)

                Agbonlahor 1.00 (2.00)

@ Spurs:        Laursen 0.50 (-0.50)

                Agbonlahor 0.25 (2.25)

                Gardner 0.25 (0.25)

v WHam:         Gardner 2.00 (2.25)

v ManUtd:       None awarded (loss)

v Bolton:       Moore 1.00 (1.00)

v Derby:        Laursen 1.00 (0.50)

                Young 1.00 (1.00)

@ Blose:        Agbonlahor 2.00 (4.25)

@ Boro:         Carew 0.67 (1.67)

                Mellberg 0.67 (0.67)

                Agbonlahor 0.67 (4.92)

@ Blackburn:    Carew 0.50 (2.17)

                Barry 0.50 (1.50)

                Young 0.50 (1.50)

                Harewood 0.50 (0.50)

v Arsenal:      None awarded (loss)

v Portsmouth:   None awarded (loss)

@ Sunderland:   Maloney 1.00 (3.00)

v ManCity:      Carew 1.00 (3.17)

@ Chelsea:      Maloney 0.50 (3.50)

                Laursen 0.25 (-0.75)

                Barry 0.25 (1.75)

@ Wigan:        Davies 1.00 (1.00)

                Agbonlahor 1.00 (5.92)

v Spurs:        Mellberg 1.00 (1.67)

                Laursen 1.00 (1.75)

v Reading:      Carew 2.00 (5.17)

@ Liverpool:    Harewood 1.00 (1.50)

v Blackburn:    Young 1.00 (2.50)

@ Fulham:       None awarded (loss)

v Newcastle:    Carew 2.00 (7.17)

@ Reading:      Young 1.00 (3.50)

                Harewood 1.00 (2.50)

@ Arsenal:      None awarded (ng)

v Boro:         Barry 1.00 (2.75)

@ Portsmouth:   None awarded (loss)

v Sunderland:   None awarded (loss)

@ ManUtd:       None awarded (loss)

v Bolton:       Barry 0.50 (3.25)

                Agbonlahor 0.25 (7.17)

                Harewood 0.25 (2.75)

@ Derby:        Young 0.33 (3.83)

                Carew 0.33 (7.50)

                Petrov 0.33 (0.33)

                Barry 0.33 (3.58)

                Agbonlahor 0.33 (7.50)

So in table form:

Agbonlahor: 7.50

Carew:      7.50

Young:      3.83

Barry:      3.58

Maloney:    3.50

Harewood:   3.08

Gardner:    2.25

Laursen:    1.75

Mellberg:   1.67

Davies:     1.00

Moore:      1.00

Knight:     1.00

Petrov:     0.33


Total:      37.99

To account for: 55.00


Credited to defence:    17.01

There may well be assorted errors in the above... I'm sure they'll be duly pointed out.

[BOF]

Good to read it Levi but I think the big difference between baseball and soccer is the fact that every player on the 'pitch' (at the plate) in baseball is there to score, whereas not all 10 outfield players in soccer are necessarily there to score so there'd be too much influence placed on Gabby & Carew. As proven by having Gardner above Laursen in the above table. Still interesting to read though.