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07/08 v 06/07 Comparison - After week 38 (Season over)


BOF

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But for every City & Pompey (and indeed Villa) there's a Spurs, a Reading and a Bolton.

Which is ultimately why there's no point comparing Villa to an individual team, but instead to the overall league table, as it is the truest gauge.

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An absolutely incredible increase of 11,331 over last season's attendance home to Man Citeh or a 38% increase !!!!

We didn't win but we should have which his encouraging and we did better than last season's defeat which is also encouraging. And last season in week 18 was a defeat which puts us further ahead of the game.

Next up in week 19 is possibly the most difficult fixture of the season. Away to Chelsea, and with their home record I can safely predict we wont be getting 3pts. I'll take a draw right now thanks very much. Funnily enough, week19 last season was also a bitch of a game and it resulted in a 3-0 defeat at home to ManUre.

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Villa are still classed as an "exciting" (want of a better term) club in my rankings:


Spurs:       2.66

Reading:     1.67

Sunderland:  0.92

Newcastle:   0.90

Arsenal:     0.73

Everton:     0.71

Villa:       0.32

Wigan:      -0.16

Boro:       -0.19

Man City:   -0.20

Blackburn:  -0.22

Fulham:     -0.43

Birmingham: -0.48

Bolton:     -0.65

Liverpool:  -0.68

WHam:       -0.77

Portsmouth: -0.97

Chelsea:    -1.02

Derby:      -1.03

Man Utd:    -1.11

Basically, over the course of the season, a mean and standard deviation are computed for each club's goals scored and conceded. Mean plus-or-minus 1 standard deviation is considered to represent the bounds of normal performance (e.g. for Villa, the mean goals scored is 1.8 right now and the standard deviation is 1.2; thus cases where Villa score between 0.6 and 3.0 goals are considered to be the result of normal variation; defensively, the mean is 1.3 and the standard deviation is 1.4, so -0.1 to 2.7 goals conceded is considered normal). Performances outside of those bounds are ascribed to the defensive or offensive quality of the opposition... scoring or conceding more goals than that will increase the excitement rating, scoring or conceding fewer goals than that will decrease the rating (the actual amount it will increase or decrease the final rating will vary based on the extent to which the result is out of the norm and the standard deviation mentioned above; the final totals are also scaled to have a mean of zero and a standard deviation of 1).

In essence the recipe for a high score here is a strong offence and a weak defence.

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What an UPDATE !!!

We are now ELEVEN points better off than we were at this stage last season after 21 games.

We are also ELEVEN points better off againts THE SAME opposition than last season. We are quite simply flying. Of course we need to keep this up, but it's clear where we're going and as even Mark Lawrenson said on MOTD the other night 'there's only 1 direction Villa are going and that's up'.

Our attendances are also, obviously, climbing - by over 10% !!

As my mate Borat would say 'Happy Times' :thumb:

Next week sees us entertaining Reading. We beat them in VP last season 2-1.

Week 22 last season saw us entertaining Chelsea @ VP with a 0-0 draw.

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We are now ELEVEN points better off than we were at this stage last season after 21 games.

We are also ELEVEN points better off againts THE SAME opposition than last season

You can't really argue with it, can you? Let's hope we keep it up.

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11 Points up already is a great achievement. With the same results as last season from here on in would be 61 points, easily our best total in the last ten years.

To do this we would need -

Wins against Reading, Blackburn, Newcastle, Sunderland, Birmingham Home and Everton Away

Draws against Boro and Wigan Home, Fulham, Arsenal, Derby, Pompey and West Ham Away

Defeats against - Bolton Home, Liverpool, Man United and Reading Away

A couple tricky wins but also some dropped points, in particular Bolton, Boro and Wigan at home. Certainly achievable

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  • 2 weeks later...

13pts clear of last season's tally now.

Next up is our annual trip to Anfield. An 8pm Monday night kick off. Last season's trip to Anfield was a 3-1 reverse. Our week 23 fixture last season was also a 3-1 reverse, this time at the hands of Man Ure in Mould Trafford.

It's worth pointing out that at this stage last season we had won 5 of our 22 games. This season we've won half of our games and have already won as many games as we did in the entirety of last season. Quite incredible.

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Liverpool draw recorded.

Week 24 last season was a relatively routine 2-0 win over Watford. Next up for us is a 6-pointer home tie against Blackburn. Last season's corresponding fixture was also a relatively routine 2-0 victory. Here's to more of the same considering the thumping we gave them in Ewood earlier this season :thumb:

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  • 2 weeks later...

Blackburn draw recorded.

Next up, we're away to Fulham. Last season we drew 1-1 in Craven Cottage.

Week 25 last season was a 3-1 defeat in St. James' Park.

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Points after 24 games

2008 41

2007 29

2006 27

2005 31

2004 33

2003 29

2002 36

2001 34

2000 43

Not bad considering that 2000 was our record breaking unbeaten start to the season.

The warning should be that we finished that season with only 55 points.

(I would go further back but I've only for the yearbooks from 2000 onwards!)

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Fulham defeat recorded.

Week 26 next.

Next up is Newcastle in Villa Park. Last season was a 2-0 win for us.

Week 26 last season saw us win 1-0 at home to West Ham.

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BOF unless I'm being daft, you've added the last one up wrong.

You say we were 12 points better off after 24 games, we lost against Fulham and lost against Newcastle last year, and now you have us as 11 points better off...surely it's still 12, or was 11 before?

Anyway, top work sir.

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I still have us as 12pts better off. We were 29 v 41 going into the game and we are 29 v 41 coming out of it. Where are you seeing the 11pts ? - Unless you are confusing our goal difference column of +11 to be our position relative to last season which it isn't (we just happened to have the same goal difference (+12) as we were points better off after week 24 :))

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