KentVillan

We had 7 draws as well... half the squad were signed in January... we had other injuries... and all the other stuff we've been repeating ad nauseam on this thread, but you seem determined to ignore?

Yes, and that's the point. Of course we are a much, much, much better team with Jack in the side, because he is the best player in the division. But to say "DS is dependent on Jack" is nonsense (I know you're not saying this, but others have). DS had loads of other stuff to sort out, and he has mostly achieved that. We now look solid defensively -- his critics said DS teams always shipped goals. We regularly dominate the shot count -- his critics said DS teams dominate possession with no end product. These improvements were happening well before Jack returned. Now we've thrown Jack back into the mix, and we're playing some of the best football I've seen at Villa for years, with good game management and end product on top of attractive football. DS's influence on Jack shouldn't be underestimated, anyway. In a fairly short space of time, he has converted Jack from a Number 10 to a much deeper central midfielder who is able to influence every phase of the game. I don't remember any other manager getting this kind of tune out of him. Unfortunately, that's why he now leaves a bigger hole in the team when he's injured. Jack is an unusual player. Most fast, technical players don't have the mental attributes to play in centre mid; most players who know how to play centre mid don't have Jack's technical and athletic attributes. That isn't just within the Villa squad, but across football more generally. A genuine like-for-like replacement for Jack is going to cost £££ and probably already plays at a higher level. So DS needs to have two completely different systems, depending on whether Jack's available, or he needs to find a like-for-like replacement. That's a big ask for a manager to sort out in half a season, with one January transfer window, while also fixing a leaky defence, trying to squeeze out results, etc. IMO he's done a decent job since he arrived, and as another poster said, is probably the best thing to happen to this club in years.

I don't buy this "Smith is dependent on Grealish" thing either. We're obviously a much better team with Jack playing, but DS was very unlucky with some of the results when Jack was out injured. We still often dominated both possession and shot count - e.g. in all of these games where we only got 5 points: Preston (A) 1-1 QPR (H) 2-2 Hull (H) 2-2 Shef Utd (H) 3-3 West Brom (H) 0-2 Stoke (A) 1-1 DS definitely deserved more than 5 points out of that. (Cue "bla bla it's a results business", "there's only one stat that matters", etc.)

I love this idea that Dean Smith was terrible, and has suddenly turned things around in the last 4 weeks. Maybe he was doing a decent job all along and the best player in the league has returned from injury? 2 wins in 13 is so misleading - we also picked up 7 draws, often against decent sides. Lots of us were defending Smith through that patch, because we could see he wasn't getting the rub of the green. Fed up of all this "football is a results business" pub bore bollocks, and how it's only "fair" to pummel a manager after a few bad results, and then suck him off when he gets 4 wins. Managers can't affect every single minute of every match. Every season has runs of wins and runs of losses, and it definitely isn't always because of good or bad decisions by the manager.

I don't think his shin pads are unusually small. He just wears his socks low, which is probably fine. On the transfer debate, I wonder how much Euro 2020 will figure in his thinking? Spend a full season playing with Kane, Alli, Trippier, Dier, Winks, and Rose and surely you're in contention? Returning to the shin injury thing - I wonder if he would also get a bit more protection in the Premier League. In the Championship, putting a few reducers in on Jack has become a bit of a cliche. I can't see that happening in the Premier League, where teams will be less scared of him, and the refereeing is a bit tighter. Point is basically: we need to go up this year.

I can confirm that you have already successfully achieved this.

In the long term, yes, the score is all that matters. In the short term, if you just use the score to measure the ability of a manager, you will miss a lot of the nuance -- was his team being dominated, was there an unlucky bounce, or a bad refereeing decision? This focus on short-term results is how Alex McLeish has a Premier League Manager of the Month award. You also seem completely deluded that Dean Smith's bad results have been mainly down to his bad decisions, and his good results mainly down to good decisions. That's a dramatic improvement over the course of a month isn't it? Or maybe, just maybe, football's more complicated than the "FFS PASS IT FORWARD" fans realise.

**** them. Player just back from injury and he's gone in to maim him. Braver ref would have given him a red. Sadly, Paul Mitchell isn't the first thick, scummy, inbred word removed to violently assault Jack while he's looking the other way. Happens every **** game. Doubt the charge will have any major consequences though? Small fine? Will pay for a nice evening out for the FA boys.

Our record was W2 D7 L4 Pts 13 Stretch that over a season and you have 46 points, which isn't relegation form. It's not great, but there were a lot of mitigating circumstances. Take Nyland's blunders out of the equation, and you'd have been looking at more like 19 points, which would have you on ~67 points if stretched across a whole season - so around 10th/11th. As I said, "respectable" form - especially with your star player out. Even top managers go through spells like this when their squad is depleted. (Also, this reminds me - why is everyone in football associated with Win % when you also get points for draws? If a manager has a depleted squad and is facing a close rival away from home, then a draw is an important result.)

It's not just 3 good results, though, is it? He's actually got a respectable record since he joined. All managers drop points when their star player gets injured. It's not like we were showing relegation form without Jack, but we had no natural replacement for him, and his absence exposed weaknesses in other players (especially Hourihane). Several previous managers have had Grealish and better players across the squad, and haven't achieved this kind of form, so DS must be doing something right?

Updated race and fixtures. I can't see Wednesday doing it with -5 goal difference and that string of fixtures. They could definitely take points off us, though. Bookies odds shortening massively again (top 6 finish on Betfair Market): Bristol 7/5 Villa 19/10 Derby 12/5 Factoring in bookies' margin, that's putting us on about 30-35% chance of 6th place I reckon. I actually think Bristol are overpriced because they have so many nasty fixtures, and am more worried about Derby, despite their form.

Betfair odds for Top 6 finish: Bristol 7/5 Derby 19/10 Forest 14/5 Villa 3/1 Factoring in bookies' margin, I think that puts us on about a 15-20% chance of 6th place now. A lot shorter than it was a couple of weeks ago. We're definitely in the mix. And as for Dean Smith's PPG with Grealish - bear in mind he has also significantly improved the defence since he last had Grealish available (Axel's injury notwithstanding), so we could easily be looking at even higher than the 2.1 PPG mentioned above. The "tough" fixtures don't bother me, because several of them offer chances to take points off competitors for 6th place, and I think we're at our weakest in games we expect to win. Summary: no, we probably won't go up. But it wouldn't be the craziest thing that's ever happened.

I think one of the most important roles of a DM is to hold the team's shape - always be available to receive passes at the back of an attack, or from short passes out from the defence, and be in a good position to tackle and intercept. Whelan does that pretty well imo, and certainly a lot better than anyone else we've tried in that position this season. He's calm receiving the ball under pressure, which you can't say for most of our midfielders. On the flip side, I also agree that his pace and general signs of ageing make him a limited footballer. We need to look around for a younger, sharper DM this summer, but for now I think Smith is using him appropriately. His immediate reaction to the pitch invader was an example of why we benefit from having him on the pitch. He immediately realised that there was a risk of one of our players getting sent off -- possibly even arrested -- and made sure that didn't happen. Imagine if one of our lads had been able to really swing a few punches at him and bust his face open or knock him out? Part of us wishes that had happened, but we know it wouldn't have ended well.

Just updated my previous post with the Derby-Wigan result. If Bristol lose to Leeds, then you'd probably have Derby as favourites for 6th, because their run-in is so much easier. Betfair have got us at around 12/1 for 6th place, so it's unlikely for now. Need Brucey to do us a huge favour on Saturday

You're right, my memory was playing tricks on me.

It does make a bit of a difference with the natural out ball, the switch / diagonal passes, and with recovery tackles (a right-footed RCB and a left-footed LCB will tend to hook the ball out towards touch). Mellberg (right-footed) and Laursen (left-footed) was a good example. Edit: my memory is playing tricks on me. Laursen was right-footed. But plenty of examples of successful same-footed partnerships: Vidic and Ferdinand both right-footed Terry and Carvalho both right-footed, but as we know, Terry was almost two-footed and usually played LCB Adams and Bould both right-footed Pique (right-footed) has mostly partnered other right-footers at Barcelona (Puyol, Toure, Mascherano) I think it depends on the individual players. Some CBs have no strong preference, while others feel uncomfortable on the "wrong" side. I wouldn't lose any sleep over it.

Two of those teams are irrelevant (Sheff Utd and Middlesbrough). All that matters is sixth spot, and I think Bristol City can be caught (and will be caught by someone, because their fixtures are brutal). 6. Bristol City.........P 34 Pts 54 GD +8 7. Derby County.........P 34 Pts 51 GD +1 8. Small Heath Alliance.P 35 Pts 50 GD +8 9. Nottingham Forest....P 35 Pts 50 GD +7 10. Hull City...........P 35 Pts 50 GD +2 11. Aston Villa.........P 35 Pts 48 GD +8 Fixtures (I've marked in red any team above Villa): Bristol City: LEE (H), IPS (H), SHU (A), MID (A), WIG (H), WBA (H), AST (A), REA (H), SHW (A), DER (H), MIL (A), HUL (A) Derby County: WIG (H), SHW (H), STO (H), ROT (H), BRE (A), BLA (A), BOL (H), BIR (A), QPR (H), BRI (A), SWA (A), WBA (H) Small Heath: AST (A), MIL (H), PRE (A), WBA (A), LEE (H), SHU (H), IPS (A), DER (H), ROT (A), WIG (H), REA (A) Nott Forest: HUL (H), AST (H), IPS (A), SWA (H), ROT (A), SHW (A), BLA (H), SHU (A), MID (H), QPR (A), BOL (H) Hull City: NOT (A), NOR (A), QPR (H), IPS (A), REA (H), WIG (H), MID (A), WBA (A), SHU (H), SWA (A), BRI (H) Aston Villa: BIR (A), NOT (H), MID (H), BLA (H), SHW (A), ROT (A), BRI (H), BOL (A), MIL (H), LEE (A), NOR (H) That looks like a lot of potential for points to be dropped - significantly more than the 6-point gap we need to close. Bristol have 7 stinkers to look forward to. Derby have by far the easiest run-in, but their squad has been decimated by injuries We have three very tough games coming up, and if we can get 7 points from these then I think we have a chance. We then need to beat the teams below us, and win the six-pointer against Bristol. It's a very big ask, but I think it's doable. As others have mentioned, those last two games against Leeds and Norwich might be more winnable than they look if both teams have secured automatic promotion.

You couldn't make it up. Literally the worst player in the team was the goalkeeper. Probably the worst player in the division. The player who'd cost us about 10 points single handedly. The number one, drop everything, break the bank, don't pass go, don't collect £200 priority. And you've managed to twist that into an example of Dean Smith being a crap manager. Have you been smoking crack all day? Has Vladimir Putin outsourced one of his troll farms to Garry Monk? I need to lie down.

There's no like-for-like replacement for Jack in the squad, so him being out disrupts everything tactically. Hourihane doesn't like being the focus of the opposition press... when Jack's in the team, he gets more time on the ball to use his obvious talents. The whole thing just comes together better. Should also point out: Bristol City losing 1-0 to Preston SHA losing 1-0 to Hull Forest losing 1-0 to Stoke If these results stick then we are right back in the mix for 6th place.

Recent results for Bristol City mean 6th place is doable. Bristol City have Leeds, Sheff Utd, Middlesbrough, and West Brom coming up in next few matches. Plenty of scope for more dropped points. SHA, Derby and Forest are all within our sights already. So with Jack back, Hourihane seemingly back in form, and 11 matches to go, I don't think we should write off this season just yet.

Managers like Bielsa and Benitez don't want to come to Villa. We're known for having unrealistic expectations, fickle fans, disillusioned players, and no financial stability. You have to offer a new manager a platform to build on, not a big unflushed toilet to clean with his tongue. Backing Smith and clearing out the free loaders will work in our favour long-term. Either Smith gets us promoted, or next manager takes over a young squad who train hard and play with a distinctive identity, and where he knows the board will give him time to prove his ideas. That might just be attractive to someone who's won a trophy somewhere.

No doubt DS benefited from a very good setup at Brentford, and people tend to overstate the impact of individual managers and coaches on football clubs. But calling him a "small cog" is ridiculous. He picks the team! Also, it's DS's willingness to operate within this kind of structure that made him attractive to Villa. We don't want a manic egotist who demands full control, and then leaves a mess behind when they resign, or keeps attacking the board in the press. Remember how many expensive flops MON left to rot on the bench? Managers who have full control and no job security can't be trusted to sign and develop players for the long-term - it's too tempting to sign an expensive 30-year-old who'll give you a couple of good seasons before retiring, or to gamble on an injury-prone player because your job's on the line. But on a matchday, there's no real difference between a head coach and an old-school manager. We can't just put all of Brentford's results down to Anybody-But-Smith. It seems pretty obvious to me that if DS can get regular mid-table finishes with a small club like Brentford, then he can probably get somewhere near the top of the Championship with Villa. We have more money, more fans, etc. Even with FFP, loss of parachute payments, etc. etc. we're still in much better financial shape than most teams at this level.

These Barnsley fans all have Hourihane in their top 5 Barnsley midfielders of all-time!!?!?!: http://barnsleyfc.org.uk/threads/best-ever-barnsley-midfielders.273213/#post-2203785 So what has gone wrong? The player I see at Villa is a budget Gylfi Sigurdsson - very talented on set pieces, long shots, etc. but ineffective in open play. Good highlight reels, no tenacity, bad link-up play. I don't think these fans can all be wrong. Of course, they mostly saw him in League One, but he did well for them in a decent chunk of a Championship season. Before someone jumps in, I also don't think we can blame Smith here - Smith has started him in game after game, and tweaked the formation and selection several times to try and accommodate him. Most of the problems are mistakes and bad execution - misplaced passes, soft tackles, lack of tracking, etc. I don't want to go too deep into his relationships or family life, but I don't think he has settled down yet, and has previously dated a Miss Britain who now appears on TOWIE. Is he easily distracted by the perks of being a footballer? Has someone screwed with his head? He wouldn't be the first footballer to go down that road. So I just wonder if something is up with him mentally. Either he's decided he wants out very early into DS's tenure, or he's got some other issue going on that is affecting his play. We definitely haven't seen what those Barnsley fans have seen. Whatever it is, I really hope he finds some form again soon.

Just watching JT on Sky's League Cup Final coverage, and he's talking like someone who has been discussing things behind the scenes with Chelsea staff and players. Think there's a strong chance of him getting involved next season. But as I said above, I don't think we can judge this until we have tangible evidence that he's neglecting his Villa duties.

We've jumped the shark here with this OGS nonsense. Solskjaer has come into a club where the previous manager has fallen out with several key players, including the 5th most expensive player in the world. He's done a good job, but half of that has just been saying to Paul Pogba "we love you, do what you want". He's also only had, what... 15 games in charge? Remember when John Gregory had Villa top of the Premier League at Christmas? It always amazes me how people can watch football for YEARS, and still never work out how misleading short-term results can be. Anyone who thinks that DS could have come into the Villa squad and just put an arm around a few players is completely deluded. Bruce was popular with the players! Team spirit wasn't the problem! Our issues are much deeper, and relate to recruitment, tactical coherence, lack of talent in key positions, outdated structures in the wider club setup, and decades of poor club management. There's no way anyone could have come into this Villa setup and done an OGS turnaround - the foundations weren't there.