dukes

This is a no-brainer for me, it's got absolutely nothing to do with football, but I attend games with my Dad and my brother, and I doubt we'd see each other too much if we didn't do that.

I'm not sure I agree with all of what you have written. The asking price is indeed dictated by Randy, but the price reflects the status and projected income of the 'asset', therefore unless we come back up, and assuming that Randy prefers to cut his losses rather than risk losing even more money should we not bounce immediately back. then the price will indeed need to be dropped. The crux of this is 'does Randy want to sell', and I happen to believe he does want to, just that he wants to realise as much of a return for his investment as is possible. The failure of a sale last summer may well have been because one more season in the premier league would have meant the possibility of a higher selling price. Income from TV alone from next season would be up by around £40M/season that's a huge increase, and it would almost certainly have been key in his stubbornness to maintain his asking price. If you take the increase in TV money, Villa would earn approximately £67M by staying up this season, and then that would guarantee £92M for 2016-2017, and a minimum of the parachute payment of £86M for 2017-2018 if we were then relegated in 2016 - 2017 so earnings from TV over the 3 years would have been guaranteed at £245M, you can factor in other earnings of around £40M per year and that comes to around £365M income over three years. In my opinion the reported £150M asking price (ignoring any unproven rumours of debt etc) would have been reasonable for a club of our size and history in the Premier League with those incomes. Upon relegation this year however the sums are quite different. TV money for 2015-2016 is roughly the same at £62.1M, Parachute payment next season £35.7M , and then for the year after £28.7M (assuming we don't come straight back up). That equates to £126M from TV compared with £245M and total revenue likely to also drop let's say for arguments sake (and being very kind) to £30M/annum that means total income of approx. £216M compared with £365M. This leaves Randy with three main options (though I am sure there are many others) :- 1. throw whatever is possible in the realms of FFP at getting promotion at the first attempt, and then sell the club at a (most likely) higher price than the £150M he is currently asking. 2. Sell the club this summer while the full cost of relegation allows a substantial selling price with the carrot of promotion and the money that brings for the new owners. 3. Shut up shop, stagnate and have the value of the asset reduced over a longer period (it's really scary what happens money wise once the parachute payments end). Putting aside whatever opinions people may personally have about Randy and his ownership of the club, he still has a responsibility to his families wealth, and we have to assume that the Lerner family have advisors who are there to protect that wealth. It's that that leads me to believe his best possible chance of getting anything back is by selling this summer rather than waiting. Perhaps it's just wishful thinking, but we all need something to hope for and clutch onto in these dark dark days.

I think this is the bigger problem, and I agree there were managers around that could have dug us out of that hole quickly, but then i suspect after 6 months of hoofing it and scraping by many posters on here would be criticising Lerner for appointing a manager that only played limited football, and after an initial lift the club would find itself in much the same problem come next season. The purchasing that took place in the summer clearly didn't turn out how we expected, but of the players that came in the ones i criticise most would be the ones with Premier League experienced players that you would expect to lead by example from the start. I would argue that players like Lescott and Richards have only started to perform as expected since Garde came in, and I am of the opinion that had Garde been appointed at the time Sherwood was, we would not be in the mess we are now even with the same personnel. Sherwood messed up his substitutions during the Leicester game, and following that he criticised the team, and at that point i think he lost them, and lost us a chance of surviving, I think Garde believes that Lerner wants a long term plan and supports his ethos, obviously further spending will be required in the summer, and clearly some of the current players will leave, but i do think Garde will be here next season, and i think that will be to the long term benefit of the club.

Apart form the goal i still thought he was a bit lazy overall on Saturday, granted he did look more sprightly after the goal, but his first half performance was very poor. I'm not a big fan, but he took the goal well and deserves credit for that, problem is we all know 9 times out of 10 he would probably have failed to lift the ball over the keeper and that is not good enough for a striker. I'd have taken him off with 15 minutes to go (he looked absolutely knackered) and replaced him with either Keinan Davis (i assume his presence on the bench means Garde has seen something in him, and we might not get a better or lower risk game to play him in now) or Sinclair. I'd also have taken Bacuna off, i thought he had an awful game he rarely beat his man, and his distribution was terrible.

Just tired of meaningless whinging

As a message board we are so blessed to have so many posters that are so well versed in our actual situation and with the business acumen needed to let the board of Aston Villa know what move thed should make next. Yawn yawn Fact is, nobody here knows what efforts are being made, nobody here knows how attractive the proposition of playing for Villa in 2016 is to professional sportsmen. Sam Allardyce reportedly had a list of 6- transfer targets for January, I for one am happier that Remi has a better idea of what is needed and won't just settle for any old exotic sounding foreigner. Our summer spending spree and the fact we signed so many players has been identified as one of the reason the team didn't gel at the beginning of the season (I realise there are many other reasons), I think at most we probably needed 3 players in January, a keeper, a strong midfielder and a striker, Remi seems to be prioritising right back, but I trust him to work with the board to the advantage of Aston Villa, without making us bankrupt. We are in the mire, and chucking a load of money on fees and wages at the problem is not likely to solve it. I'm not saying we should be waving the white flag just yet, but above all else I want my club to survive for the long term future and not have years in further much deeper oblivion. Just for the record, as the club is effectively owned by one person/family that person that most seem to think has given up on the club is the one that stands to lose the most should our stay in the championship be extended beyond the years of the parachute payments. i still think we will have 3 new players on Monday.

Haha

Don't let the facts get in the way of agenda. You're being far too reasonable.

Well Generaljazzman, I hope you have better luck here than past club employees / board members.

Agreed on Rhodes, there are few with a better record in the championship, he'd come now for the chance to taste the premier league.

He's not the Messiah...He's a very naughty boy ! Commander you @#:>

Frankly until he shows that he cares about this club, supposedly his club, the club that has given him the honour of leading it, the club that has made it possible for him to get women into bed despite having the charisma of a lettuce leaf at christmas dinner. Until then I have decided it's better just to give Gabby the same treatment and respect he has given us. So until that day I will not be giving a flying f**k about him. I don't expect him to suddenly become a world beater, but I do expect him to work his socks off to show us and the manager he wants to help fix this club, and is prepared to fight for survival. That is the very least he owes us !

Have they got a player on a time share then ? How do you know what our budget is ?

His only way back now is if he goes on loan, works hard, keeps his head down and comes back next season with a point to prove to THIS manager. Such a shame, but like many of our prospects before hasn't been able to warrant tge hype generated around him. Perhaps his failure to live up to the hype is the fault of our previous "gobby" manager.....£60M anyone ?

Agreed ! At the time we signed him, nobody expected us to sign Bent, and certainly nobody expected a signing that cost as much as Bent. Fair play whatever he did afterwards, he probably kept us up that season too. Seems to me buying GOOD, Proven players is getting harder and harder. Who knows, maybe we are trying to put together similar deals but it's suddenly a harder sell...in a time when Chelsea are seemingly chasing Pato, and have to sell Remy before they can buy anything is possible. Pato will never succeed in this league IMO, and Remy was never good enough for Chelsea at the time they bought him either.

Because those two players are so very similar. Jonathon Walters is gash !

What does Steve Stride know about running a business with a turnover of £100M ? Football is business to all but the fans. It's very clear Randy wants to dispose of the club, and it's very clear there are no takers. This appointment is intended to get the club into a position where Randy can realise his dream. That may or may not involve us as fans realising our dreams, but i would expect for Randy the primary concern is disposing of the club without having to take even more of a hit in the pocket.

Worse than this one ?

What he is saying may well be right, but of all people Joey Barton is probably the least qualified to comment on what it takes to RUN a football club, He doesn't help his argument by name calling either. Joey Barton was very good at being a thug in the mud, he is the type of player we are crying out for in our midfield, he is not an intellectual, and unless it's commenting on football matches I would not really pay much attention to what he says. He's right though, we are going down.

I've been back 4 pages, but can't find anywhere where anyone has suggested that.

I agree that's probably our best side, gosh what a sad state of affairs.

I like the optimism and everything, but the side you've picked is actually weaker than those picked by the last two managers (all in my opinion of course).

Yes, but that doesn't directly affect the valuation of the club, which is why the debt was written off. The immediate affect may have been a slight increase in valuation. Since Randy bought the club, the TV deal has gone from being a pot of £1bn over 3 years to the new deal of £5.1bn over 3 years. On that alone the value of the club should have increased (by way more than £70M). Last season Villa were paid around £68M for TV, and that was on the old deal. Thats is why Villa is still the 22nd Richest club in world football (according to Deloittes 2013/2014 figures). In the current scheme of things buying a club in the Premier League tomorrow for £150M would mean receiving close to £105M each of the next 3 seasons.....just for standing still and surviving, problem is we won't be a Premier League club next season, meaning we most likely will get around £60M (for bottom place) and then £86M over the next three years in parachute payments (plus whatever deal the championship clubs have in place), however even then the lure of £105M per year would still probably be enough to justify the £150M price tag.

Shouldn't this be in the medical forum ?

you want him topless on the training ground ? Each to their own I suppose, not sure this is the right forum for that stuff though.