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leviramsey

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Blog Entries posted by leviramsey

  1. leviramsey
    Since I didn't want the football betting thread I started in "Other Football" to turn into a clone of Mister_Master's Portuguese league thread (i.e. a logn string of posts by me), I figured I'd move these posts to my blog here.

    I do post these picks on Google+, also.

    The picks in the linked thread went 7-12, +3.67 units (+2.03% of risk)

    Being that I'm from North America, I generally use North American notation, most notably in the form of moneyline pricing. Conversion of positive moneylines to decimals is easy (divide by 100 and add 1 (or add 100 and divide by 100...)), but this converter may prove handy.

    My basic philosophy is value, which generally means that I pick underdogs, especially when I'm getting the benefit of a handicap.

    On with the picks for 25 August!

    Genoa -0.5 +440: 8 units
    Genoa +1 -150: risk 9 units to win 6.00
    Cagliari -0.5 +145: 8 units
    Cagliari DNB -140: risk 9 units to win 6.42
    Chievo/Parma Draw +235: 6 units
    Chievo +0.5 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
    Udinese -0.5 +310: 10 units
    Udinese +0.5 -110: risk 8 units to win 7.27
    Gil Vicente +2 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
    Vitoria Guimaraes -0.5 +250: 8 units
    Vitoria Guimaraes DNB +165: 9 units
    Sevilla -0.5 +115: 10 units
    Sevilla DNB -170: risk 10 units to win 5.88
    Shakhtar Donetsk -0.5 -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
    Chornomorets -0.5 -117: risk 9 units to win 7.69
  2. leviramsey
    The Monte Carlo results as of 30 October. The current results, Round 11, will follow in another post soon.
    15th 0.1% -0.3%16th 0.4% -0.8%17th 1.2% -2.3%18th 3.5% -8.6%19th 11.4% -18.6%20th 83.4% +30.9% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 98.3% Sunderland: 58.6% Bournemouth: 53.9% Newcastle: 41.5% Norwich: 25.7% Liverpool: 13.7% Watford: 3.5% WBA: 3.0% Chelsea: 1.1% Everton: 0.4% Swansea: 0.2% Stoke: 0.1%
  3. leviramsey
    These numbers assume no dramatic improvement in quality of play (including, for instance, tactics), nor any new manager bounce. Additionally, as can be seen in the recent yo-yoing of the Tyne & Wear clubs' chances, it only takes one sufficiently good result to cause things to look (at least for a time) a lot brighter.
    16th 0.1% -0.3%17th 0.3% -0.9%18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.8% -0.6%20th 86.7% +3.2% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.6% (+1.3%) Sunderland: 84.9% (+26.3%) Bournemouth: 67.7% (+12.8%) Norwich: 25.9% (+0.2%) Newcastle: 14.5% (-27.0%) WBA: 3.3% (+0.3%) Chelsea: 1.9% (+0.8%) Liverpool: 1.8% (-11.9%) Swansea: 0.5% (+0.3%)
  4. leviramsey
    Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some of the worse performances under Sherwood "age out", the story of the next few rounds of Monte Carlos will be steady improvement.
    There was still improvement, in some sense, in the Monte Carlo's assessment: our chances of rock-bottom decreased!
    17th 0.2% -0.1%18th 3.5% +1.4%19th 17.7% +6.9%^^^ upper quartile20th 78.6% -8.1% median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.8% (+0.2%) Sunderland: 96.0% (+11.1%) Bournemouth: 82.6% (+14.9%) Newcastle: 6.2% (-8.3%) Norwich: 5.3% (-20.6%) WBA: 3.9% (+0.6%) Swansea: 3.5% (+3.0%) Chelsea: 1.9% (unchanged) Liverpool: 0.8% (-1.0%)
  5. leviramsey
    I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable... The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us.
    The bad: It definitely didn't help us.
    Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat.
    17th 0.2% unchanged18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.2% -7.5%20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likelyVilla: 99.8% (unchanged) Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%) Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%) Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%) Norwich: 8.5% (+3.2%) Swansea: 4.0% (+0.5%) Chelsea: 0.3% (-1.6%) West Brom: 0.1% (-3.8%)
  6. leviramsey
    Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.
    The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:
    Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week.
    Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well:
    16th 0.1% +0.1% 17th 0.4% +0.2% 18th 1.3% -0.8% 19th 6.1% -4.1% 20th 92.1% +4.6% One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference.
    Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%) Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%) Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%) Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%) Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%) Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%) Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%) West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)
  7. leviramsey
    Despite both Newcastle and Bournemouth notching wins, our chances of staying up managed to slightly improve.
    16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.5% +0.1%18th 1.5% +0.2%19th 8.2% +2.1%20th 89.7% -2.4%Villa: 99.4% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 78.9% (+10.5%) Bournemouth: 41.4% (-24.7%) Swansea: 36.0% (+22.3%) Newcastle: 22.9% (-25.7%) Norwich: 18.4% (+15.1%) Chelsea: 1.5% (+0.5%), West Brom: 1.5% (+1.4%)
  8. leviramsey
    A 2-0 loss at home and a pair of clubs near us in the table beating clubs at the other end of the table. Disaster?
    Our chances of staying up actually slightly improved.
    16th 0.1% unchanged17th 0.6% +0.1%18th 2.4% +0.9%19th 12.3% +4.1%20th 84.6% -5.1%Villa: 99.3% (-0.1%) Sunderland: 86.9% (+8.0%) Swansea: 43.4% (+7.4%) Bournemouth: 28.8% (-12.6%) Newcastle: 24.1% (+1.2%) Norwich: 15.2% (-3.2%) West Brom: 1.2% (-0.3%) Chelsea: 1.1% (-0.4%)
  9. leviramsey
    For the past few years, I've endeavored to periodically post results of Monte Carlo simulations of the remainder of the season. The process is essentially analogous to repeatedly running the BBC predictor and seeing how often various events come up.
    I've decided that with the new site, it perhaps makes more sense to have this as a blog series rather than regular comments.
    5th0.1%6th0.1%7th0.2%8th0.3%9th0.6%10th0.8%11th1.3%12th2.2%13th3.4%14th5.2%15th7.4%^^^ upper quartile16th10.3%17th13.0%18th16.3% median19th18.1%vvv lower quartile20th20.7%By my reckoning, as things stand it's about 50/50 whether we finish between 19th and 16th, with above that range being about as likely as 20th.
    The table that came up most often in the simulation was:
    1. Man City2. Chelsea3. Leicester City4. Spurs5. Everton6. Man United7. Swansea8. Arsenal9. West Brom10. West Ham11. Southampton12. Watford13. Crystal Palace14. Stoke15. Norwich16. Bournemouth17. Liverpool18. Villa19. Newcastle20. SunderlandRelegation chances
    Sunderland 61.8%Newcastle 55.5%Villa 55.1%Liverpool 48.5%Bournemouth 33.6%Norwich 22.9%Stoke 11.1%Watford 3.0%Southampton, Crystal Palace 2.4%West Ham 1.3%Swansea 1.0%West Brom 0.6%Arsenal 0.4%Man Utd 0.3%Everton 0.1%
  10. leviramsey
    It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it?
    9th0.1%10th0.1%11th0.3%12th0.5%13th1.0%14th1.6%15th2.8%16th5.0%17th8.9%^^^ upper quartile18th16.2%19th27.2%median, maximum likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th36.3%I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often.
    Relegation chances:
    Sunderland: 84.0% Villa: 79.7% Bournemouth: 55.0% Newcastle: 29.8% Liverpool: 19.8% Watford: 10.8% West Brom: 7.6% Swansea: 6.5% Norwich: 4.0% Palace: 1.5% West Ham: 0.8% Stoke, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal: 0.1% This is the first run of the simulation with no results from last season.  Of course, last season, Leicester were projecting to a higher chance of going down than we currently project to, so...
  11. leviramsey
    Has the bleeding stopped?
    9th 0.1% unchanged10th 0.1% unchanged11th 0.2% -0.1%12th 0.6% +0.1%13th 1.2% +0.2%14th 2.4% +0.8%15th 4.3% +1.5%16th 6.9% +1.9%17th 10.2% +1.3%^^^ upper quartile18th 14.8% -1.4%19th 22.3% -4.9% Medianvvv lower quartile20th 36.9% +0.6% Maximum likelihoodDespite the increased chance of finishing rock-bottom, our overall relegation chances decreased:
    Villa: 74.0% (-5.7%) Sunderland: 60.2% (-23.8%) Newcastle: 52.4% (+22.6%) Bournemouth: 40.0% (-15.0%) West Brom: 35.3% (+27.7%) Watford: 22.7% (+11.9%) Liverpool: 9.0% (-10.8%) Norwich: 3.7% (-0.3%) Stoke: 1.0% (+0.9%) Chelsea: 0.9% (+0.8%) West Ham: 0.5% (-0.3%) Swansea: 0.3% (-6.2%)
  12. leviramsey
    13th 0.1% -1.1% 14th 0.2% -2.2% 15th 0.4% -3.9% 16th 1.2% -5.7% 17th 3.5% -6.7% 18th 12.1% -2.7% ^^^ upper quartile 19th 30.0% +7.7% 20th 52.5% +15.6% Median, maximum likelihood Barring major change, I think we're nailed-on for rock-bottom.
    Aston Villa: 94.6% chance of relegation Sunderland: 90.8% Bournemouth: 68.2% Norwich: 16.7% Watford: 10.1% West Brom: 8.5% Liverpool: 7.5% Newcastle: 3.3% Swansea, Stoke: 0.1% Of course, it only takes one emphatic win to change the assessment, as Newcastle ably prove, but do we honestly see that sort of result coming from this incarnation of Villa?
  14. leviramsey
    YTD: 18-42, -160.64 units (-28.95%)

    Liverpool to win +140: 6 units
    Liverpool DNB -125: risk 11 units to win 8.80
    Roda +1 +130: 7 units
    Nacional to win +145: 6 units
    Nacional DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
    Rioa Ave DNB -180: risk 6 units to win 3.33
  15. leviramsey

    Picks for 10 November

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 75-109, -196.45 units (-11.58%)

    Panaitolikos to win -133: risk 7 units to win 5.26
    NAC Breda +1 -120: risk 7 units to win 5.83
    Roma to win -375: risk 9 units to win 2.40
    Roma -1.5 -115: risk 8 units to win 6.95
    Metalist Kharkiv to win -160: risk 5 units to win 3.12
    Metalist Kharkiv -1 +120: 6 units
  17. leviramsey

    Picks for 14 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 26-52, -174.91 units (-25.06%)

    Arsenal to win -145: risk 8 units to win 5.51
    Arsenal -1 +127: 7 units
    Chelsea DNB -150: risk 7 units to win 4.66
    Hannover +2.5 +110: 8 units
    Real Sociedad DNB -150: risk 8 units to win 5.33
  18. leviramsey

    Picks for 15 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 33-53, -133.10 units (-17.34%)

    Kalloni to win +225: 6 units
    Hellas Verona to win +110: 6 units
    Hellas Verona DNB -180: risk 9 units to win 5.00
    Rubin Kazan DNB -195: risk 10 units to win 5.12
    Granada DNB -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
  19. leviramsey

    Picks for 17 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 36-54, -118.00 units (-14.59%)

    Shakhtar Donetsk to win +250: 5 units
    Olympiacos to win +275: 6 units
    Olympiacos +0.5 -135: risk 9 units to win 6.66
    CSKA Moscow +2 -105: risk 12 units to win 11.42
    Viktoria Plzen to win +367: 5 units
  20. leviramsey

    Picks for 18 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 37-58, -137.50 units (-16.26%)

    Steaua Bucharest +1 +100: 9 units
    Zenit St. Petersburg +1.5 -130: 9 units
    Celtic +1 -105: risk 9 units to win 8.57
    Ajax +2.5 +100: 8 units

    It's a dog day afternoon for western hemisphere Champions League bettors...
  21. leviramsey

    Picks for 19 October

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 63-91, -161.37 units (-11.83%)

    Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
    Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40
    WBA DNB +120: 6 units
    Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
    Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
  22. leviramsey

    Picks for 19 September

    By leviramsey,

    YTD: 37-62, -173.50 units (-19.68%)

    St. Gallen to win +155: 5 units
    St. Gallen DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
    Esbjerg +1 +105: 5 units
    Slovan Liberec +0.5 +107: 7 units
    Rijeka +0.5 +117: 7 units
    Sheriff Tiraspol DNB +105: 7 units
    Tromso +2.5 -105: risk 8 units to win 7.61
    Shakhter Karagandy +1.5 -130: risk 6 units to win 4.61
  23. leviramsey
    YTD: 23-47, -158.96 units (-25.28%)

    Atromitos to win -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
    Atromitos -1 +105: 6 units
    Platanias to win +215: 6 units
    Platanias DNB +130: 9 units
    Estoril to win -181: risk 5 units to win 2.76
    Estoril -1 +100: 5 units
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