Jareth

36 will do it

If Leicestershire get beat by Chelsea (v.likely) then beat Newcastle at home, then Newcastle's next game against West Brom becomes a relegation battle - Newcastle could quite easily be in big trouble still, would be amazing given the flak we've copped for a bit of fun last time they went down.

We've much in common with Sunderland, naive yank owners, both let Martin O'Neill spend daft money, both clubs have had Roy Keane in a management position, both signed Bent. Both been shite for last 4 years. About time we started doing our own thing...

For anyone needing to understand Sunderland's situation just head to Ready To Go and have a read. It's a parallell universe to VT, however, strip out the doom merchants and overly positive posters, and you get some proper assessments of their team, and some stats that are hugely worse than ours. Basically - This is not last season where they pulled off miracles with the good feeling they had on appointing Gus P. They couldn't score so have shipped in an ageing Defoe, they lost their supporters so shipped in old-school Dick Advocat, one of their key players shagged a child and it is safe to say, not in the right frame of mind for a relegation battle. They have Arsenal then Chelsea away on the final day (you know, the champions, playing at home completely relaxed but wanting to win). They MIGHT pull of a good result or two, but so will we. And they will need to get three more points than us to be certain of finishing ahead of us. Chillax!

Reasons not to panic. The players are going to try, we know this from their consistent peformances over the last few games. They can handle the pressure and they will be at it against Everton as they can see how close we are. We have immense characters across the pitch and a red hot goal scorer. We have a manager that will try to win games. We have key players back from injury. We have winnable fixtures. We are in good form. Why is anyone depressed because Hull have shown some fighting spirit? Good on Hull. We can also do that.

Our last 4 prem games were Citeh, Spurs, QPR and Man U - which yielded 4 points - no wonder we feel like we've been stuck in quicksand while everyone catches up. We'll do better from our next 4.

Liverpool loss today gives Saints added incentive against sunderland.

If anyone's worried, spare a thought for Sunderland fans - their reaction to the goal - http://www.readytogo.net/smb/threads/hull-v-liverpool-match-thread.1069851/page-7

That Ibe is a poor man's sterling. Plenty of time. If not, let us prey Sunderland stuff up for rest of season.

A result nobody expects - 2-0 villa and nearly safe.

Sunderland's home form last three - LWL (conceded 8 scored 2) Sunderland's away form last three - DLD (conceded 3 scored 2) Next home games - Saints & Leicester Next away games - Everton, Arsenal, Chelsea That's the top four in the current form table for them to play plus Saints. I cannot see how we will do three points worse than them (cos of goal dif).

Looking at Sunderland, if playing well, they will be within touching distance of us all the way through to the final game - where we play bottom of the league Burnley at home and they go away to the champions. It's gonna take something insane for it to go t*ts up for us.

Looking at what Man U have done with Fellaini, I can see them coming in for him. It has to be 35 mill or above, he is that valuable. Be very sad to say goodbye but even with ambitious new owners we are years off top 4. Reinvested along with the same amount again from said new owners would give us £70 mill to fix rest of the squad.

Looking at form and difficulty of upcoming fixtures: Leicester can get to 40 points - so I'm ruling them out. Noooocastle will fluke a result and finish on 38 points. Sunderland can get to 35 points, cannot see them doing any better than that, even being generous. Hull can get to 35 points, 36 best case scenario if they absolutely have a go. We - can get to 38 points (Hammers & Burnley) - 41 best case scenario. So, given the fine margins (Benteke straight red vs Everton anyone?) we could do with either Hull or Sunderland to completely fluff it - my money is on Sunderland, they should have changed boss a few games earlier.

I thought we were pretty much debt free these days since Lerner turned his loans to equity? Anyway - West Brom's owner's recent statement looks like frustration, if Nursey is right then it looks like the baggies are sniffing Villa's survival and know they ain't getting bought over us. Yeah, I'm speculating. Anything to kill the hours till Everton.

Too many teams involved for that last relegation spot, we'd have to be the worst of them to go down, and we're not. Could easily be an Everton win next sat, but we'll get the points against west ham and burnley.

A Leicester draw is best, but a win for them wouldn't be bad either as puts another nail in burnley's coffin. We can't be greedy and ask for all five teams below us to screw up - can ask for 4 of them though. It's all irrelevant as we'll tonk Citeh leading to Pelligwini's dismissal - same as we made the case for Poyet's sacking and possibly Brendan Rogers (the cabin boy).

Well, it's got to happen some time. Loaded Chinese owners would be excellent, all that revenue they can say they've brought in from the Chinese mainland and there's not a thing any footballing body can do to verify it. It would be an unprecedented expansion of revenue should we overnight become China's premier league team. How could FFP enforcers disagree with any precedent in shirt sales or sponsorship that we set, in China - it has not been done before. We could have a huge financial advantage here. Also Ron Vlaar today - "I feel things have changed at the club so you never know. I can’t tell anyone too much about it right now." I think we're on, Chinese or not.

Using 'math(s)' I have looked at the total points the bottom 5 can get between now and the end of the season. Deducting points that will definitely be dropped when two of them play each other, then deducting points for games against any top 6 teams. I make it that between them, the most points they will pick up (as a group) are about 30. Split that by the 5 teams and that's 6 points more each. This would take third from bottom to 34 points, then the last two on 32 points. Of course the split won't be that even (it looks like Leicester will get the most points) and some teams won't even get another 6 points - but all in all - I would say that math(s) tells us the bottom three will be in the range of 30 - 34 points - almost certain of it. One more win please!

Scousers have a sniff of 4th spot at the moment so cannot see them entirely focused on this game - but they have excellent players and I fancy Coutinho to score. I'm going to say 2-2 and then a heart breaking gaff by one of our players to let the scousers win.

A comfortable 13th

Looking at how the relegation spots will change in the next two games, I think after we play Man City we'll be 3 points clear of the pack still on 32, QPR, Burnley and Sunderland will all be on 29 points, then Hull on 28 and Leicester possibly 26. That I think will be the closest we get to them again for the rest of the season. I predict mathmatical safety on the penultimate day of the season having picked up a point against Everton and 3 points against West Ham. This Saturday's Lotto numbers will be....

You can say that again

Randy must have been absolutely bricking it watching the QPR and Spurs games, such fine margins between him losing another 100 million. So I imagine this trip to Wemberlee is on the back of complete relief and a sense that we ain't going down. Make the final and that really could be his last game as owner.

If we stay up, with new owners I think it is definite he will extend his contract - with Kieran, Jores and Nathaaaaan all being fit then Vlaar would deffo be our icing on the cake defender.