Player and team statistics (and analysis)

[Con]

This all leaves me wondering what the stats looked like from the first few games compared to the last few. Seems to me that we're getting longer and longer with our passing every game (though thats an opinion i got no stats to back it up!

 

I think you're right. The defenders are concious of conceding goals and want to make amends. They want to right their wrongs themselves, by personally making the attacking ball. 

 

They've got to stop doing that. It's a team game. The midfield services the attack, not the defence.

 

 

I dont buy the defence giving it to the midfield argument though - Holman is the worst passer of the ball we've seen for a long time bannan and delph both seem to come deep to collect the ball off the back 3/4/5 all the time then guess what.... hoof it forward and we lose possession.

 

That can't be true.

 

Only 27% of our long balls come from the CMs, 52% come from the defence.  At Man Utd and West Brom midfield contributes between 40-50% of long balls, so either our midfield is not hitting enough long balls or the defence is hitting too many. It's the latter.

 

You want your midfielders to be hitting the long balls, because they are more accurate passers.

 

 

Nzogbia is always good for getting his head down and running into the opposition to give the ball away without trying to ever pass. Also with Lambert playing wingbacks it puts the onus on Lowton and bennett to get more involved but the woeful movement from our midfield constantly leaves them with no other option than to hit it long. 

 

Lowton and Bennett have dreadful long passing and crossing statistics compared to our midfield.

 

They are classic ball hogs who try to do everything themselves, and end up messing up.

 

But like you say stats are always able to back up your point - whatever it may be. with that in mind remember villa park is 68m wide and an average pass length of 21m is shorter than a corner to the near post. 

 

Yep, I know that. Most grounds are similar in size though. 

 

 

Too much is made of this "long ball" theory in this country, When the long ball is on - spot it and hit it long, when it's not - keep possession, play it short. The first one is easier. The second one requires a team that plays for each other moving into space, dragging defenders out of position which makes the short passing game look easy when it's done well. Passing is the half of it. movement (and shape) is what we're lacking and apart from distance run i dont think there are any stats for that. 

 

The long ball doesn't require a team. It doesn't require much organisation. Get it in there. If you miss it the first time, get the rebound and hit it in.

 

This is what our defence has resorted to so they can feel like they're doing something useful rather than conceding goals all the time. No imagination, which is why they should not be in charge of the attack.

 

Not much point training passing and movement if the defenders by-pass the midfielders with long diagonals to Benteke or hoofs from CB to the same place.

[villianusa]

Con,

 

What I make from that data is Clark is a liability. Not sure how they score but he is at -120, I'm sure his booking go against him quite abit. Looking at the stats our best team would be.

Guzan

Lowton

Vlaar

Baker

Bennett

Westwood

Delph

KEA

Bannan

Benteke

Weimann

 

I wonder if fit if that team would have been able to have beat Bradford over two legs.

[VILLAMARV]

I think you're right. The defenders are concious of conceding goals and want to make amends. They want to right their wrongs themselves, by personally making the attacking ball. 

 

They've got to stop doing that. It's a team game. The midfield services the attack, not the defence.

I just feel it's too simplistic to draw a proper conclusion - I was just trying to add my few words to the idea that the raw data doesn't include what percentage of long passes were made by the relevant positions when there were a) other options or no other options (mainly because the midfield have pushed up leaving Bennett and Lowton isolated time and time again) the midfield must be the link between the defence and the attack. I agree that the stats prove we do it too much (DF hitting the long ball) but I dont agree that this is the fault of the defenders. I dont think the midfield are organised enough, I dont think they work hard enough with or without the ball. I get slated for suggesting bannan is our best crosser - especially when he takes corners like the ones against Bradford in the second leg but I'm chuffed to see the stats back this up.

That can't be true.

 

Only 27% of our long balls come from the CMs, 52% come from the defence.  At Man Utd and West Brom midfield contributes between 40-50% of long balls, so either our midfield is not hitting enough long balls or the defence is hitting too many. It's the latter.

 

You want your midfielders to be hitting the long balls, because they are more accurate passers.

 

 

 

Lowton and Bennett have dreadful long passing and crossing statistics compared to our midfield.

 

They are classic ball hogs who try to do everything themselves, and end up messing up.

 

 

Yep, I know that. Most grounds are similar in size though. 

Its all about where they're passing to and from still. Lowton and Bennett never seem to have anyone running any sort of angle in front of them and get isolated alot. The pitch size point was really just reminding everyone that a cross from Lowton or bennett to the far post would still be classed as a long pass from a defender

The long ball doesn't require a team. It doesn't require much organisation. Get it in there. If you miss it the first time, get the rebound and hit it in.

 

This is what our defence has resorted to so they can feel like they're doing something useful rather than conceding goals all the time. No imagination, which is why they should not be in charge of the attack.

 

Not much point training passing and movement if the defenders by-pass the midfielders with long diagonals to Benteke or hoofs from CB to the same place.

 

The main reason why im still fully behind Lambert (and the reason i want him to work out in my heart) is that i cant remember having a manger who wants to keep possession more. There's been a noticeable change recently but from game one against portland timbers or whoever it was the goalies have been instructed to ALWAYS try rolling the ball out and attempting to play our way out from the back. I wonder how many less hoofs up to the big man from the keeper we've seen this year over previous years for instance? Lambert wants to play football unlike O'leary, MON and he who must not be named. 

 

For the record though con I'm loving the stats and how people interpret them. I just think you should use your eloquant typing skills and obvious flair for numbers to hammer the midfield not stick up for them and criticise the defence for the right things. how high does our midfield as a whole rank for goals scored, assists provided and more importantly points gained at the final whistle aginst the others? Are there any stats for which team looks the most scared if we conceed a corner? I bet we'd be top of the league on that one

[Con]

I just feel it's too simplistic to draw a proper conclusion - I was just trying to add my few words to the idea that the raw data doesn't include what percentage of long passes were made by the relevant positions when there were a) other options or no other options (mainly because the midfield have pushed up leaving Bennett and Lowton isolated time and time again) the midfield must be the link between the defence and the attack. I agree that the stats prove we do it too much (DF hitting the long ball) but I dont agree that this is the fault of the defenders. I dont think the midfield are organised enough, I dont think they work hard enough with or without the ball. 

When we are on the attack and the defence is near the middle circle, it shouldn't be difficult to find one of our CMs. I don't think their movement is that bad. They're not hiding. If the defence cannot immediately find a CM should play keep ball until one appears. No great rush.

 

I get slated for suggesting bannan is our best crosser - especially when he takes corners like the ones against Bradford in the second leg but I'm chuffed to see the stats back this up.

 

Its all about where they're passing to and from still. Lowton and Bennett never seem to have anyone running any sort of angle in front of them and get isolated alot. The pitch size point was really just reminding everyone that a cross from Lowton or bennett to the far post would still be classed as a long pass from a defender

No, I don't think it would. There is a separate column for crosses. It wouldn't go under both columns so it would have been a cross.

 

Midfield is not completely blameless. They should demand more. Ultimately this is the responsibility of the manager.

 

 

The main reason why im still fully behind Lambert (and the reason i want him to work out in my heart) is that i cant remember having a manger who wants to keep possession more. There's been a noticeable change recently but from game one against portland timbers or whoever it was the goalies have been instructed to ALWAYS try rolling the ball out and attempting to play our way out from the back. I wonder how many less hoofs up to the big man from the keeper we've seen this year over previous years for instance? Lambert wants to play football unlike O'leary, MON and he who must not be named. 

I agree it's happened less but has happened more recently as the defence has started to panic.

 

A passing game requires that our defence remains calm and passes on the responsibility of the attack to the midfield.

 

After Bannan was subbed, the way we played in the second half wouldn't have beaten a pub team. No organisation, just retardedly hoofing it "in the mixer". I'm convinced the players are better than that.

 

For the record though con I'm loving the stats and how people interpret them. I just think you should use your eloquant typing skills and obvious flair for numbers to hammer the midfield not stick up for them and criticise the defence for the right things. how high does our midfield as a whole rank for goals scored, assists provided and more importantly points gained at the final whistle aginst the others? Are there any stats for which team looks the most scared if we conceed a corner? I bet we'd be top of the league on that one

The midfield has had to take pretty much all the criticism so far this season. Weak and bullied and "Championship class" is the mantra. 

 

There is some truth in the fact we need a stronger defensive-capable midfield option, but otherwise the stats show our midfield is Premiership class. All of them.

 

Westwood, the 22 year-old playing League Two football last year, has posted the same passing, crossing, long ball stats as Sidwell, Carrick and Sandro.

 

I'm not going to take seriously anyone who claims he is a Championship player.

 

If we had more possession, and more attacks, I think our midfielders would have more assists and goals, although N'Zogbia and Ireland are our more attacking midfielders, so I'd expect production from them before Delph, Bannan and Westwood.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Con

[Pez1974]

Intersting stuff, and I love the stats. What they don't show is the why? Why do our defenders not pass to the midfield, for example. I also think that many people blame the midfield for the pressure we always have on us. Yeah, Bannan and Delph may complete passes, but if they are hospital balls which the defenders lose, whose fault is that really? I suspect the stats will show the midfielder completed the pass and the defender lost it, or hoffed it long and out of trouble.

[Con]

Intersting stuff, and I love the stats. What they don't show is the why? Why do our defenders not pass to the midfield, for example. I also think that many people blame the midfield for the pressure we always have on us. Yeah, Bannan and Delph may complete passes, but if they are hospital balls which the defenders lose, whose fault is that really? I suspect the stats will show the midfielder completed the pass and the defender lost it, or hoffed it long and out of trouble.

Clearances are not counted as a long pass. 

 

I don't put a negative spin on good statistics. I interpret them in the most simple way possible.

 

You have to do this because it's impossible not to assume things when drawing conclusions.

 

If you want to put a negative conclusion on good statistics, it inevitably requires a tortuous, convoluted argument i.e. about every pass must be a hospital balll.

 

I could fire back to you the reason the midfield play hospital balls, as you suggest (I don't believe they do), is because of lack of movement among the defence.

 

We can make a tower of cards out of the assumptions used to put a negative spin on good statistics.

 

That is why I would prefer to treat the statistics as they are, interpret them in the most simple way, and apply this rule equally.

 

 

If I want to know why the defence don't pass to the midfield enough I'd look for other statistics to support a different interpretation to mine (they're trying too hard to do everything themselves).

 

So - Westwood is as good as Sidwell, Sandro, Carrick at passing, long balls and crosses. No negative spin needed.

 

If we had Sidwell, Sandro, Carrick in our team this year instead of Westwood, in terms of passing, crossing and long balls it wouldn't have made any difference to points on the board (I realise defensive stats may differ, which can affect shots at our goal, but this doesn't explain why our defenders don't pass to the midfield when we have the ball).

[Con]

Con,

 

What I make from that data is Clark is a liability. Not sure how they score but he is at -120, I'm sure his booking go against him quite abit. Looking at the stats our best team would be.

 

Here's long ball accuracy for the defence. Dire.

 

Clark: 51% (78)

Vlaar: 48% (86)

Lowton: 49% (103)

Baker: 58% (41)

Herd: 35% (40)

Bennett: 38% (31)

Stevens: 36% (14)

Lichaj: 24% (17)

 

El Ahmadi is the team's best long ball kicker at 82% (24)

Bannan has kicked the most long balls 65% (130)

 

 

Error - get your facepalm gifs. out I deserve at least 1

 

midfield has kicked 40% long balls. when calculating the percentage I accidentally used total midfield crosses not total midfield long balls.

 

The figure for the defence was correct. They have kicked 52% of our long balls. This is still far too many, but the midfield have only kicked 3% and 9% fewer long balls than their counterparts at Man Utd and West Brom.

 

This suggests that the defence do kick too many long balls and the midfield should kick more of them (so the defence should pass to the midfield more often), but that it's not as dramatic as before the error.

 

The analysis stays the same but it becomes less important.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Con

[CottenM]

Alright... what about the 60% (roughly) in every game where we don't have the ball?
What about the stats for what I believe is our most played "pass", Guzan to Benteke...?
Dribbling and shooting no longer part of the game?
How many of those midfield "succesful" passes are one's where Delph gets in a spot of bother, shits himself and knocks a dodgy pass back to Clark who has to pump it? (i see this sort of thing happening a lot)

I got a stat for you, most goals conceded in the league, second lowest scorers. We have a bad team.

All that said, I do agree we should look to play through the midfield more, and the midfielders need to be looking to play a more attacking ball more often. For me, we need to go 4-4-2...

[Con]

Okay, let's move on to a different selection of statistics.

 

I'll comment on it later.

 

What do you think? Don't respond with just "we're shit" anyone can say that. Try and analyse it somewhat.

 

[VILLAMARV]

How many of those midfield "succesful" passes are one's where Delph gets in a spot of bother, shits himself and knocks a dodgy pass back to Clark who has to pump it? (i see this sort of thing happening a lot)

.

 

Sounds like pretty spot on analysis of the midfield passing anomaly to me con although granted they are probably short passes lol

[tarjei]

Looks to me like we have lot's of bodies infront of the goalie and that the goalie is pretty good, but the opposition is allowed too many chances.

It all becomes a bit too simplified when you look at isolated statistics.

The former manger of Wimbledon and National team coach of Norway, Egil 'Drillo' Olson, is a statstic nerd. He bases his tactics on it. He was very successfull in the 90s, but the tactics are very simple, i.e the long ball and quick counter attacking. 

Edited January 24, 2013 by tarjei

[Con]

Looks to me like we have lot's of bodies infront of the goalie and that the goalie is pretty good, but the opposition is allowed too many chances.

It all becomes a bit too simplified when you look at isolated statistics.

The former manger of Wimbledon and National team coach of Norway, Egil 'Drillo' Olson, is a statstic nerd. He bases his tactics on it. He was very successfull in the 90s, but the tactics are very simple, i.e the long ball and quick counter attacking. 

 

If we did not concede the most opportunities on goal in the PL we would stand a better chance of winning games because while those defensive stats are not good, there are a number of clubs much worse than us.

 

Our keeper could be doing better but is not the worst. Players are putting their bodies on the line to stop the shots before they reach him.

 

Main problem is the sheer number of shots we have allowed the opposition to take on our goal.

 

IMO this is caused by low possession % (always on the defence) and bad defensive organisation.

 

I have another table below.

 

This one indicates that the players work hard to close down shots on goal (long shots conceded not the worst) and that we don't concede a ridiculous number of goals from headers (not in the bottom five). We're actually one of the strongest teams in the air.

 

We have conceded the majority of goals from inside the penalty area: which points toward bad defensive organisation.

 

Also - as everyone knows - the statistics show we are weak at tackling. That cannot help our possession %.

 

 

 

 

So, I think all these statistics so far point to where our problems are:

 

1. Lack of possession, because:

 

a ) We do not tackle enough

b ) Defenders do not pass to the midfielders enough

 

2. Lack of defensive organisation.

 

a ) We concede a relatively high amount of goals inside the penalty box

b ) Though we are strong at heading we are not organised enough for the "second phase" 

Edited January 24, 2013 by Con

[Rino8]

Bannan and Delph are positionally awful without the ball, offer nothing in the air and can't even compete with most teams physically. There is more to football than passing percentages, they're helpful, sure. And most teams benefit from playing it out of the back, but hitting it long from the back is only a small fraction of the problem.

 

Also I reckon if Benteke was dropped for a few games you'd see a dramatic difference in style of play. That's not to say he should be dropped, but when you have a giant target man, it's the easy option to just hoof it his way.

[Con]

Bannan and Delph are positionally awful without the ball, offer nothing in the air and can't even compete with most teams physically. There is more to football than passing percentages, they're helpful, sure. And most teams benefit from playing it out of the back, but hitting it long from the back is only a small fraction of the problem.

 

Also I reckon if Benteke was dropped for a few games you'd see a dramatic difference in style of play. That's not to say he should be dropped, but when you have a giant target man, it's the easy option to just hoof it his way.

 

If you look at the top 5 most dominant teams on this list they are Man Utd, Man City, Chelsea, Arsenal, Liverpool.

 

They all have the top percentages for possession and tackling. Heading seems less important, so long as you are not bad at that.

 

 

I don't think the evidence is we are especially bad at heading. We don't concede a lot of goals to headers in the PL, although our air dominance here may be a statistical anomaly due to the Benteke Effect.

 

What we lack, as you suggest, is a physical presence in midfield. Our midfielders can pass but they can't tackle.

 

We shouldn't over-exaggerate the physical though - look at this.

 

What I find incredible, Swansea, which is a midget team, wins 79% of tackles, whilst Tottenham, which is a team of giants wins only 74%.

 

How does AVB restrict opponents to so few shots at goal whilst being so bad at tackling and weak in the air (despite their height advantage over most teams - tallest midfield in the PL!)?

 

Who is Swansea's defensive midfielder who wins all these tackles? They ain't got one.

 

Swansea's players may be playing a more effective defensive system to us, where they pick and choose tackles better.

 

They don't dive in but only tackle if they are definitely going to win the ball, otherwise they work with each other to shepherd opponent players to the wings where they are less dangerous.

 

This would mean the Swansea midgets will have attempted fewer tackles than other teams. (From a quick glance at the stats again - yes this is true!).

 

So it's not just a question of physicality. A big physical player who can tackle would help but as Swansea shows, it's not necessary. It's organisation.

Edited January 24, 2013 by Con

[VILLAMARV]

Not surprised to see we've had the most chances created against us than any other team this season. that is the most telling stat on the chart imo

 

As for defensive midfielders and Swansea in particular isn't Britton the guy who generally breaks stuff up for them? Just coz he's 5'5" doesn't mean he cant play in the defensive midfield role. 3 of the finest players in that position in my lifetime i can remember are off the top of my head Mascherano (5'9") Makelele (5'7") and Mattheus (5'81/2") - none of them particularly tall.

 

You're spot on about the second phase though. And against Bradford in the 1st leg it was embarrassing. They were first to everything in and around our box that night, but its been going on all season. We never seem to have anyone marshalling the D whether defending or attacking set pieces and this is costing us big time.

[Con]

Not surprised to see we've had the most chances created against us than any other team this season. that is the most telling stat on the chart imo

 

As for defensive midfielders and Swansea in particular isn't Britton the guy who generally breaks stuff up for them? Just coz he's 5'5" doesn't mean he cant play in the defensive midfield role. 

 

Nope. Britton has 28 tackles in 21 appearances. Bannan has 28 tackles in 20 appearances. Neither are defensive players.

 

 

 

3 of the finest players in that position in my lifetime i can remember are off the top of my head Mascherano (5'9") Makelele (5'7") and Mattheus (5'81/2") - none of them particularly tall.

 

These players were short but very physically strong.

 

Britton's role is more like Xavi with fewer frills. Doesn't put a cross in. He gets and gives, linking the two sides of the pitch.

 

You're spot on about the second phase though. And against Bradford in the 1st leg it was embarrassing. They were first to everything in and around our box that night, but its been going on all season. We never seem to have anyone marshalling the D whether defending or attacking set pieces and this is costing us big time.

 

Not a set piece but in the WBA game there was nobody at the top of the penalty box preventing Brunt getting a free shot at goal. 

 

This is defensive organisation. 

[mikeyp102]

Not a set piece but in the WBA game there was nobody at the top of the penalty box preventing Brunt getting a free shot at goal.

This is defensive organisation.

Second balls, are the mainly the reponsibility of the midfield though. A cb shouldn't be going after the ball if they have headed it clear (not that this happening for the WBA goal), the midfield have defensive responsibilities which ours are very poor at.

[Con]

Our defensive system is not working for our defence or attack.

 

Want more proof?

 

The WBA heat map shows they (Ridgewell, Odemwingie et al) frequently got in behind in the space on our flanks where a traditional LB or RB would be in a 442 system.

 

In a 3 CB system the WB is pushed further up the field in a more attacking role, creating this space behind them. 

 

The plus of the WB system is supposedly we have a better attack to compensate this vulnerability.

 

This heat map proves this is not working for us. The WBA defense have not been pushed back at all as the heat map is very cold on their flanks.

 

 

Does this tell us anything else?

 

I got the heat maps at squawka.com.

 

[Con]

[Con]

This is not about Aston Villa, but it is a good example that shows how statistics can be useful to assess the performances of players and team.

 

Some people raised eyebrows when I said the passing and crossing statistics of Bannan, Westwood and Delph were better than Lampard's.

 

A curling first-time strike at Wembley was a reminder of what Lampard can do - as if it were needed - and came off the back of a run of seven goals in his last nine league appearances. It is the veteran's unwavering ability to find the net that will no doubt be key to earning a new contract at the club, as a look at the midfielders' stats elsewhere show his all-round game is unsurprisingly in decline.

 

Lampard's strength is, and always has been, a tendency to pop up in goalscoring positions, often arriving late in the box to finish off a free-flowing move that he so often started from deep. This season, however, he's been slightly less involved in the build-up play, averaging 43.8 passes a game in the Premier League compared to 51.2 last season. His accuracy is also significantly worse, finding a teammate just 81.5 percent of the time.

 

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