Wildcard weekend

[claret75]

Started hot full of adrenaline and fizzled out.

A fit Griffin wouldve been a different story.

[leviramsey]

It took the Seahawks offense a couple of drives to find their feet, I guess.

The Seahawks also made some defensive adjustments.

RG3 banging his knee on that run didn't help the Redskins, either. Not needing to respect RG3 on the run was a huge benefit for the 'hawks, too.

The pick that RG3 threw was also convenient for Seattle, though that can be laid as much on Shanahan the Younger for only sending Garcon deep, letting a safety with a reputation for ball-hawking jump in front of the pass.

Given how generally unimpressive the Falcons have been, I think the Seahawks have a good shot against the Falcons. Then again, I've been saying the Seahawks have very good Super Bowl chances for a couple of months.

That shot of RG3 alone on the bench was a great picture by Fox. It will be in all the highlight packages, methinks.

[kkr]

Seahawks will get to the Super Bowl i reckon. Most complete team in the NFC imo.

[leviramsey]

The Seahawks coming in as the hot team on a roll (especially beating the other contender for that title) makes them the pick to continue the Packers/Giants trend...

[claret75]

The way I see it, Wilson made a lot of plays with his legs, RG3 wouldve done the same, the game couldve been a lot closer.

[leviramsey]

If I'm a Patriots or Broncos fan, the Seahawks are definitely the scariest team. It's hard to come up with a major flaw for them.

If Wilson was an inch or two taller, he'd be playing for the Browns...

[kkr]

RG3 should be playing for the Browns but surprise surprise they **** up the draft again! Thanks Cleveland.

[kkr]

Haha Richard Sherman is hilarious!

[kurtsimonw]

I think Atlanta could make a mess of the Pats/Broncos secondary, but agree with others that Seattle are probably the scariest NFC team. These types of QBs can be a pain to play against. Although, when was the last time a QB noted for being able to be a threat running the ball won the Super Bowl (I don't count Rodgers as a 'threat' running it)?

[leviramsey]

Elway and Young are probably the only running QBs with rings, though prior to them in the Super Bowl era, it's basically just Tarkenton to make the Super Bowl.

[BOF]

Elway and Young (and Wilson and Luck for that matter) were (are) primarily passing QBs who happened to be able to run effectively when called upon. They could all get by solely as passers which is what I think distinguishes them and is first and foremost why they were top QBs. Someone like Vick is who I would call a running QB. It remains to be seen whether RGIII can get by on his arm alone; by which I mean will opposition figure him out to the extent that it prevents him getting to a superbowl.

[claret75]

Not picking at your comment but RGIII has also been described as a passing QB who can run. I've watched every Skins game this season and his accuracy and arm strength are just as strong as his running and agility. He's a smart QB too, sees whats happening and checks down if he needs too without a panic. The only fault I can pick is he fumbles quite often, 12 times this season i think, although only losing it twice, he reacts well after losing the ball.

Let's face it he's Jesus mark 2.

[AVFCforever1991]

[BOF]

Yeah you might be right claret and it could be that I'm being unfair on him, but he had just over half the passing attempts of Andrew Luck this season and although his passing attempts were the same as Wilson, he had a 3rd more rushing attempts for nearly double the yards i.o.w. his percentage of passing plays based on total plays was a lower percentage than Wilson's. It could be that the league just needs to figure him out. As experienced as he will be next year, the league will have had a chance to research him so we'll know more about his arm when he's not threatening them with the run nearly every 1 in 4 plays.

[kurtsimonw]

Next season could be a pretty big year passing the ball for RG3. With him and Morris, every team is going to play the run all day long.

[kkr]

RG3 is a great talent unquestionably, but he is being made to look so much better by Alfred Morris and that Oline, i.e. Shannahans offense.

I could hit Moss and Garcon in stride every time when they are wide open off the play action so often. At the same time i could probably rush for 1000 yards at tailback in Shannahans offense also! So everything is complimenting everything else with that at the moment. Well built offense and scheme.

Lets see how he does if the running game suffers or if their D gets worse. How would he be doing if he was in Cleveland or St Louis? Not anywhere near as good i bet. He has the newness of the college option BS going for him currently also but it will get figured out eventually.

There is then also the fact that he now might have blown his ACL (said it at the time, looked nasty and always does when knees go like that without anyone around them) and LCL. That would be the 2nd time the ACL has gone in his right knee and the way Washington have handled this is shocking to be fair. The guy needs to do some serious rehab and then try and strengthen it somehow, some way because coming back from another ACL would not be very easy to do.

Just look at T2 on the Giants, he did his ACL and then even after a long rehab and strengthening program he did it again. Washington have to play this very safe and cautious with RG3 because they could lose him before its even began and even as a Giant fan i wouldnt wish it on the kid.

Travis Beckum and Jake Ballard both tore their ACL's in feb in the Super Bowl and barely contributed this year. Beckum was activated off PUP later in the season and didnt really do anything and Ballard sat out the whole year with the PATs.

RG3 is going for another opinion on his MRI results though as it could just be signs of the previous tears. I doubt it, but for his sake i hope its fine.

[kurtsimonw]

Washington have to play this very safe and cautious with RG3 because they could lose him before its even began and even as a Giant fan i wouldnt wish it on the kid.

Agreed. Even though he'll probably be a massive pain in our arse for the next decade, he's too likeable and too good to watch for me to want something like that to happen. I think he needs to strengthen up his knees, bulk up, then do more strengthening at his new weight. Michael Vick came back a better player after he bulked up in prison, even then he was still getting injured. You can't have a 210 pound man running around getting smashed up by 6'4, 250 guys every other play. Washington have already got a backup they obviously wanted, so I'd consider sitting RGIII for most, if not all, of next season to give him 18 months of getting into prime condition. Either that or they seriously need to work on how they use him, he'll go the way of David Carr if he keeps getting hit as often as he does.

[leviramsey]

DYAR ratings from the weekend

Quarterbacks

1. Joe Flacco (129 passing DYAR, 0 rushing DYAR)

Flacco actually finished atop the leaderboard this week despite a pretty stiff penalty (about -30 DYAR) for playing the Colts. As discussed in the essay, Flacco likes to throw deep, and he was very effective with the long ball against Indianapolis. On deep passes, he went 5-of-7 for 157 yards and a touchdown. As a result, he had a pretty top-heavy day, in the sense that a lot of his value came on a small number of plays. Flacco's five biggest plays (touchdowns of 18 and 20 yards, plus three plays that gained 46 to 50 yards, one of those a conversion on third-and-19) were worth 139 DYAR by themselves, meaning he was below replacement level the rest of the day. His five worst plays (one sack, four incompletions) were worth -54 DYAR.

2. Matt Schaub (89 passing DYAR, -4 rushing DYAR)

As you can tell from his raw stats, Schaub did a lot of checking down against Cincinnati. On second down, Schaub went 12-of-12 for 86 yards, plus an 11-yard DPI. Only four of those plays went for first downs, but nine of them met FO's standards for a successful play. He also had some interesting splits on his 13 third-down plays. Five of them were completions for first downs, and a total gain of 53 yards. Four of them were completions short of the sticks, for a total of 30 yards. And four of them were incomplete, one of those a pick-six.

3. Aaron Rodgers (75 passing DYAR, 4 rushing DYAR)

As Aaron (Schatz) noted in his DVOA commentary, Aaron (Rodgers) and the rest of the Packers were pretty clearly not trying at the end of this game. Rodgers' 9-yard touchdown to John Kuhn late in the third quarter put Green Bay ahead 21-3. Up to that point, Rodgers was 19-of-25 for 260 yards and 15 first downs (including the scoring play), with two sacks. After that, he went 4-of-8 for 14 yards and one first down, with a sack.

4. Russell Wilson (24 passing DYAR, 2 rushing DYAR)

Outside the red zone: 13-of-18 for 178 yards with eight first downs and five sacks. He also had five runs for 56 yards and three more first downs, plus a fumble. Inside the Washington 20, he went 2-of-8 for 9 yards, and while one of those completions was a 4-yard touchdown, the other was a 5-yard gain on third-and-7. His only run in the red zone was an 11-yard gain on first-and-10 from the 16.

5. Robert Griffin (-9 passing DYAR, 9 rushing DYAR)

First two drives: 6-of-9 for 68 yards with six first downs, including two touchdowns. He also had three runs for 12 yards and two more first downs in that span. After that, he went 4-of-10 for 16 yards with one first down, one interception, two sacks, one hard-to-watch fumbled snap, and one run for 9 yards.

6. Kirk Cousins (-33 passing DYAR, 0 rushing DYAR)

Cousins hit two of his first three passe for 27 yards and a pair of first downs. Then he fumbled a snap. Then he threw five incompletions in a row, then completed a pass for 4 yards on third-and-10, then incomplete on fourth down, and that was that.

7. Joe Webb (-78 passing DYAR, 23 rushing DYAR)

The Vikings originally drafted Webb thinking they could turn the Alabama-Birmingham quarterback into an NFL receiver, but somewhere along the way those plans were scrapped. Perhaps it's time to go back to that idea. Webb's raw numbers don't really reflect how unsuccessful he was against Green Bay. His last four passes, each thrown while down by at least 14 points in the fourth quarter, were all completed for 119 yards with one touchdown and three other first downs. Those were his four longest completions of the day. Up to that point, he had gone 7-of-24 for 61 yards with two first downs, one interception, one intentional grounding penalty, one fumble, and three sacks. He also gained 68 rushing yards on seven carries.

8. Andy Dalton (-65 passing DYAR, 1 rushing DYAR)

You probably know about Dalton's horrible first half (4-of-10 for 3 yards, three of those completions gaining 1 yard or less, with one first down and one sack), but his third- and fourth-down numbers may have been even worse: 2-of-8 for 15 yards with a sack and no first downs. His only successful third-down conversion was an 11-yard DPI call, and it took him 55 minutes to even get that.

9. Andrew Luck (-94 passing DYAR, 11 rushing DYAR)

On Baltimore's half of the field, Luck went 7-of-19 for 63 yards with three first downs, two sacks, one fumble, one intentional grounding, and one interception. On the day, he had four runs, all on third downs, for 35 yards and three first downs. That's nothing new for Luck. Half of his 42 rushes came on third or fourth downs, as did 15 of his 23 first downs on the ground.

(the reason for the low rushing DYAR for Wilson (ran for 56 yards on 5 attempts and only gets 2 DYAR) is likely due to the situations serving as the baseline; DYAR is based on comparing to backup-level QBs in similar down/distance/etc. scenarios. So the 11 yard run on first down from the 16 is compared to the backups who have run in that situation, which pretty much means guys like Webb, Vick, and Tebow, plus the odd time that the waters parted for a non-running QB.

Most Valuable Runningbacks

1. DuJuan Harris (11 rushing DYAR, 18 receiving DYAR)

Harris had a career-high 17 carries against Minnesota, and though he averaged only 2.8 yards per rush, he gets enough credit for his touchdown and his consistency (nine of his carries gained 4 yards or more) that he had positive value as a rusher. He was the most valuable running back of the week, though, because of what he did in the passing game: five catches in six targets for 53 yards, including four first downs.

2. Alfred Morris (25 rushing DYAR, 0 receiving DYAR)

In rushing DYAR alone, Morris was the most valuable back this week, but the Redskins didn't throw him a single pass. Only three of his 16 carries went for first downs, but nine of them gained 5 yards or more. Like the rest of the Washington offense, he did most of his damage early. First two drives: eight carries, 49 yards, one first down. Rest of the game: eight carries, 31 yards, two first downs.

3. Marshawn Lynch (18 rushing DYAR, 6 receiving DYAR)

Lynch's fumble at the goal-line was worth -27 DYAR, and is the only reason he isn't No. 1 in these rankings by a wide margin. In 20 carries, he ran for six first downs (only Adrian Peterson had more this week), with four runs of 10 yards or more (only Arian Foster had more), and he was the only player this week with multiple 20-yard runs. Meanwhile, he was stuffed for a loss just twice. However, like everyone else on his team, Lynch struggled in the red zone. He had a 15-yard gain from the Washington 17, but his other six red-zone runs netted 4 yards, including both stuffs and the fumble. Finally, Lynch caught the only pass thrown his way for a 9-yard gain on first-and-10.

4. Adrian Peterson (21 rushing DYAR, -4 receiving DYAR)

Peterson rushed for seven first downs in 22 carries, and was only stuffed twice. He had three runs for 10 or more yards. Like the rest of the Vikings, there was an air of "too little, too late" to Peterson's day. Two of his longest carries, runs for 18 and 11 yards, came on his last two runs of the day. (He also had an 11-yarder in the first quarter.) The Vikings threw him three passes, all on first-and-10, and he caught just one of them for 8 yards.

5. Bernard Pierce (12 rushing DYAR, 0 receiving DYAR)

Without opponent adjustments, Pierce would have been the most valuable running back of the week. He gained 103 yards on only 13 carries, three of them gains of 10 yards or more, including a 13-yard gain on third-and-6 and a 43-yarder on third-and-1. He was stuffed only twice.

Least Valuable Runningback

Ray Rice (-49 rushing DYAR, 13 receiving DYAR)

Rice had two fumbles in 15 carries. That's the biggest reason he's this low, but not the only one. Although he averaged 4.7 yards per carry, only three of his runs were worth positive DYAR: a 13-yard gain on second-and-5 and two 5-yard gains on first-and-10. He also had an 18-yard gain that would have been positive, but it ended in a fumble. He also caught just one of the four passes thrown his way (although that one went for a 47-yard gain).

[claret75]

Yeah you might be right claret and it could be that I'm being unfair on him, but he had just over half the passing attempts of Andrew Luck this season and although his passing attempts were the same as Wilson, he had a 3rd more rushing attempts for nearly double the yards i.o.w. his percentage of passing plays based on total plays was a lower percentage than Wilson's. It could be that the league just needs to figure him out. As experienced as he will be next year, the league will have had a chance to research him so we'll know more about his arm when he's not threatening them with the run nearly every 1 in 4 plays.

Maybe if RG3 hadve had the amount of throws of Luck he'd be better honed and have an even better arm lol

I can see where you're coming from but after watching him a lot i can say his performances have arguably been better since he hasn't been running as much because of the injury. He hasn't been anywhere near as mobile, yet still playing to at least the same level as before the injury.

I guess defenses will try and keep him in the pocket next season but they do and they leaves gaps through the air which he'll take advantage of given what I've seen so far, that's if he stays healthy and carries on with the same intensity lol.

[claret75]

RG3 is a great talent unquestionably, but he is being made to look so much better by Alfred Morris and that Oline, i.e. Shannahans offense.

I could hit Moss and Garcon in stride every time when they are wide open off the play action so often. At the same time i could probably rush for 1000 yards at tailback in Shannahans offense also! So everything is complimenting everything else with that at the moment. Well built offense and scheme.

Lets see how he does if the running game suffers or if their D gets worse. How would he be doing if he was in Cleveland or St Louis? Not anywhere near as good i bet. He has the newness of the college option BS going for him currently also but it will get figured out eventually.

There is then also the fact that he now might have blown his ACL (said it at the time, looked nasty and always does when knees go like that without anyone around them) and LCL. That would be the 2nd time the ACL has gone in his right knee and the way Washington have handled this is shocking to be fair. The guy needs to do some serious rehab and then try and strengthen it somehow, some way because coming back from another ACL would not be very easy to do.

Just look at T2 on the Giants, he did his ACL and then even after a long rehab and strengthening program he did it again. Washington have to play this very safe and cautious with RG3 because they could lose him before its even began and even as a Giant fan i wouldnt wish it on the kid.

Travis Beckum and Jake Ballard both tore their ACL's in feb in the Super Bowl and barely contributed this year. Beckum was activated off PUP later in the season and didnt really do anything and Ballard sat out the whole year with the PATs.

RG3 is going for another opinion on his MRI results though as it could just be signs of the previous tears. I doubt it, but for his sake i hope its fine.

Or you could say he's making Alfred Morris and the OLine look good, which is what a lot were saying. His fake hand offs to Morris are almost unreadable, I'm not an NFL expert by any stretch but I don't remember seeing a QB sell the play action that that well before, it's artisitc the way he does it. Like you said RG3 and the rest of the offense work well together.

Not sure I agree when you say it's easy for him to find the wide open receivers. He puts the ball pretty much exactly where the receiver wants it, open or not, he hasn't made too many mistakes all year and that's with a group of receivers that could be called average at best. Garcon was injured half the season and Fred Davis got injured early on and missed the majority of it. He's accurate under severe pressure. Roy Helu was missing all season and if he gets fit for next time he'll be a massive plus for catching and running out the backfield for Griffin.

Hope the injury isn't too serious for his sake, at least he was walking after it happened. Peterson came back from a bad injury so i guess RG3 could do the same if the injury was that bad.