Predictions and general chat

[leviramsey]

Because that's not an official statistic (like tackles were (still are?) for years), each team uses its own definition.

Elway's 47 comebacks are inflated by the definition the Broncos use, which, among other things, credited Elway with comebacks in games that ended in draws as well as games in which the Broncos never trailed in the 4th quarter.

Blog entry, focusing on Elway vs. Marino (summary: if you adopt the same definitions, Marino had 51 career wins decided in the 4q, 36 of which were comebacks; Elway had 49 career wins decided in the 4th quarter, 34 of which were comebacks, plus a 50th game which was a 4q comeback which ended in a tie)

[leviramsey]

The most reasonable definition for 4th quarter comeback IMO would be:

* Game must be won (no ties or losses allowed)

* Take field with a 1-8 pt deficit in the 4th quarter and score on offense to take the lead or tie (i.e. if trailing by 1-3, a FG qualifies)

Conversely a game winning drive is most-reasonably:

* Take field with game tied or trailing by 1-7 pts in the 4th quarter or OT and score on offense to take the lead

* Retain the lead for the entire remainder of the game

Of course, either definition, especially of a 4th quarter comeback, has some cases that wouldn't meet the standard. Consider This 2001 game between the Dolphins and Broncos:

4th quarter opens with Broncos up 10-0, Dolphins have the ball, 2nd & 1 from the Bronco 4. 3 plays later, Jay Fiedler throws a TD to Chris Chambers. Dolphins trail 10-7.

Ensuing drive sees Griese throw a pick-6 to put the Dolphins up 14-10.

Broncos fumble ensuing kickoff. Dolphins punch it in from the 1 after three more plays to go up 21-10, the final score.

There was never an opportunity for a 4th quarter comeback in this game, as neither offense ever took possession down by 8 or fewer!

[leviramsey]

Applying those definitions:

2008 Ravens @ Steelers: Steelers lead 17-13 @ start of 4q, kick a FG (20-13), concede TD (20-20), kick FG in OT to win (23-20)... Game-winning drive in OT, but not a comeback

2008 Cowboys @ Steelers: Cowboys lead 13-3 @ start of 4q; Steelers kick a FG (13-6), then score a TD (13-13), then Romo throws a pick 6 to give the Steelers the win (20-13)... 4th quarter comeback, but not a game-winning drive

Super Bowl XLIII: Steelers vs. Cardinals: Steelers lead 20-7 to start 4q; trail 23-20 later in the quarter. Steelers score TD to win 27-23... 4th quarter comeback and game-winning drive

[leviramsey]

So using those standard definitions:

Game-winning drives

51: Dan Marino, Peyton Manning (most recent: 2013 vs. Redskins)

46: John Elway

45: Brett Favre

39: Tom Brady (most recent: 2013 vs. Saints)

37: Warren Moon

34: Fran Tarkenton

33: Joe Montana, Vinny Testaverde, Drew Brees (most recent: 2013 vs. 49ers)

31: Drew Bledsoe, Ben Roethlisberger (most recent: 2013 vs. Lions)

30: Jake Plummer, Kerry Collins

29: Johnny Unitas, Jim Kelly

28: Eli Manning (most recent: 2012 vs. Cowboys)

27: Terry Bradshaw, Brad Johnson

26: Randall Cunningham, Boomer Esiason, Dan Fouts, Dave Krieg, Ken Stabler

25: Donovan McNabb, Jake Delhomme

24: Steve DeBerg, Joe Ferguson, Ron Jaworski, Joe Theismann, Matt Hasselbeck (most recent: 2012 vs. Bills)

23: Mark Brunell, Jim Hart, Steve McNair, Jim Plunkett, Brian Sipe, Roger Staubach, Matt Ryan (most recent: 2012 playoffs vs. Seahawks)

22: Steve Bartkowski, Jon Kitna, Craig Morton, Carson Palmer (most recent: 2013 vs. Bucs)

21: Doug Williams, Troy Aikman

20: John Brodie, Rich Gannon, Bob Griese, Steve Grogan, Tommy Kramer, Dan Pastorini, Tony Romo (most recent: 2013 vs. Vikings)

[leviramsey]

Actually I wasn't totally paying attention when doing the most recents, so the most recent may not actually be a GWD...)

[leviramsey]

4th quarter comebacks

40: Peyton Manning

36: Dan Marino

35: John Elway

31: Joe Montana

30: Fran Tarkenton, Brett Favre

29: Vinny Testaverde

28: Tom Brady

27: Johnny Unitas

26: Warren Moon

24: Drew Bledsoe, Dan Fouts, Dave Krieg, Eli Manning

23: Ben Roethlisberger

22: Jim Kelly, Drew Brees

21: Randall Cunningham, Kerry Collins

20: Joe Ferguson, Jim Hart, Jake Plummer

19: Steve Bartkowski, Terry Bradshaw, John Brodie, Steve DeBerg, Jake Delhomme, Boomer Esiason, Charley Johnson, Jim Plunkett, Ken Stabler, Bart Starr, Joe Theismann, Tony Romo

18: Sonny Jurgensen, Jon Kitna, Daryle Lamonica

17: Mark Brunell, Ron Jaworski, Donovan McNabb, Steve McNair, Brian Sipe, Doug Williams

[leviramsey]

Notable stat, from FO's quick reads.

Eli Manning has thrown 17 picks in 10 games this year. His opponents' defenses, in games not against the Giants, have totaled 92 picks in 91 games. The Cowboys, Broncos, Eagles, and Bears have a combined 52 picks this season, a full 25% of which were thrown by Eli Manning.

[Tegis]

Elway's 47 comebacks are inflated

 

[BOF]

 

Not necessarily.  You can complete your 4QC before the game is over and the final drive can be done by the opposition who might even score from it.

 

So a GWD is always a 4QC but a 4QC does not always need a final GWD.

That can't be right, Eli has had 24 4QCs but 28 GWDs. It's confusing me.

 

Well yeah that wouldn't make sense using my definition. But taking things literally, my logic works.  As Levi says, teams obviously have their own interpretations of things.

[leviramsey]

It looks like most everybody has now standardized on the Pro Football Reference definitions cited above.

[BOF]

I'd hope so, because they make sense.

[rhyscartwright_avfc]

Peyton tops GWD's and 4QC's? But I thought he wasn't clutch?

[BOF]

Clutch is more a percentage success rate than an overall total.  That's not a commentary on Manning either way.  Just a relevant point.

[kurtsimonw]

indeed.

 

I think any QB with a losing playoff record and a noticeable drop-off in playoff performance from regular season performance is also a reason why he's considered to be bad in clutch situation.

[kkr]

For 4QC/GWD i use pro-football-reference and here is their article explaining it. Part 1

 

Part 2 explains the rules in detail.

 

 

What can we do to define a 4th quarter comeback once and for all? I’m going to lay out several steps to follow when analyzing a game to see if it’s a comeback/game-winning drive.

 

1. The game in question was a victory: This is the easiest part of tabulating comebacks. You only need to look at games won (you can look at losses if you’re trying to get the number of opportunities, but that’s more time consuming and especially difficult prior to the play-by-play era). When it comes to ties, I think they are worth a look. If it was prior to 1974 (the season the NFL instituted overtime), they could mean more than post-OT ties. For example, this game with Joe Namath was a pretty impressive 4th quarter performance. Down 24-7, he threw two TD passes and led a tying FG to preserve a 24-24 tie instead of a sure defeat. That is a lot better than the tie we looked at in Elway’s career. But generally, we’re looking at QBs in the OT-era, and a tie doesn’t cut it in today’s game.

 

2. Some type of offensive scoring drive put points on the board in the 4th quarter while the team trailed by one possession or were tied: It is ok if the
drive started in the 3rd quarter; as long as it finished in the 4th with the offense still on the field (this eliminates the Bledsoe/Cincinnati situation). It is ok if it’s a FG or TD, as long as the offense was on the field for it. It is ok if it’s in overtime.

 

3. There can be a difference between a comeback and game-winning (GW) drive: FOR IT TO BE A COMEBACK, THE OFFENSE MUST OVERCOME A DEFICIT. Trust me; the importance of that statement justifies the usage of the caps lock. Not all comebacks are GW drives, not all GW drives are comebacks. If you never trailed in the 4th quarter, but the game is tied and you lead a drive to win the game, that is a GW drive, not a comeback. I’ll use the reigning champion 2008 Steelers as an example, considering they’re recent and six of their 19 games played were won in this fashion.

 

In their first meeting against the Ravens, the Steelers led 17-13 to start the 4th quarter. They added a FG, then Baltimore tied the game at 20 with a TD. In OT, the Steelers drove for the game-winning FG.

 

RESULT – Game-winning drive (OT), not a comeback

 

Against the Dallas Cowboys, the Steelers trailed 13-3 to start the 4th quarter. They added a FG to cut the deficit to 13-6. Roethlisberger then completed 4 passes for 57 yards and the tying-TD to Heath Miller. On the very next drive, Tony Romo was intercepted by Deshea Townsend for the winning TD in a 20-13 victory.

 

RESULT – 4th Quarter Comeback, not a game-winning drive.

 

In Super Bowl 43, the Steelers blew their 20-7 lead and found themselves trailing 23-20 in the final 2:30. Roethlisberger led the historic TD drive, capped off with Holmes’ game-winning catch for a 27-23 victory.

 

RESULT – 4th Quarter Comeback and game-winning drive.

 

Those are three different examples of the types of 4th quarter wins you can achieve, and with the help of boxscores, play-by-play and newspaper articles/archives, it should not be that difficult to classify them.

 

Checklist of questions to ask:

Did the team win the game?

- If the answer is no, then move onto the next game.

 

Did the QB ever have the ball in the 4th quarter or overtime with a tie or deficit of 1--8 pts?

- If the answer is no, then move onto the next game.

 

Did the winning team ever trail in the 4th quarter?

- If the answer is no, then this cannot be a comeback.

 

Did the offense produce the winning points or was it a return by the defense/special teams?

- If the answer is yes, then it’s a game-winning drive (and if there was a deficit, a comeback).

- If the answer is no, then the QB/offense does not get credit unless they did something to force a tie or get a lead at some point.

 

Did the offense produce a tying drive and then watched the defense/special teams score the winning points?

- If the answer is ‘yes’, then it’s a comeback, but not a game-winning drive.

 

All of these types of drives are positives for the offense and QB in question. Winning a game that is tied may not be as impressive as overcoming a deficit, but if you never make the plays to do it, that game may result in a loss. I think all of these kinds of drives and comebacks should be bunched together into one collection of games, and we can call them something like “4th Quarter/Overtime Wins” or “Wins Decided in the 4th Quarter/Overtime”. Then in addition to that total number, we can say how many of those wins were comebacks. That is what I did with Marino & Elway in part I. I said Marino had 51 overall wins and 36 were comebacks, while Elway had 49 & 34 (50 & 35 if you want to count that tie).

 

[leviramsey]

That's exactly the source I was using.

A lot of it comes down to quality of supporting cast, especially defense: A comparatively poor one will set up a lot more opportunities to be down in the 4q. Parity from the cap and free agency also seems to favor more recent players for that reason.

[leviramsey]

Power ratings after the Saints-Falcons game...

1. Broncos: +9.3 pts

2. Seahawks: +8.1

3. Panthers: +6.7

4. Saints: +6.3

5. 49ers: +4.3

6. Chiefs: +4.2

7. Patriots: +3.6

8. Colts: +2.6

9. Cardinals, Bengals: +1.6

11. Cowboys: +1.1

12. Titans: +0.6

13. Rams: +0.4

14. Bears: 0.0

15. Eagles: -0.1

16. Giants: -0.2

17. Dolphins: -0.4

18. Packers: -1.0

19. Bucs: -1.5

20. Chargers, Lions: -1.8

22. Steelers: -2.1

23. Bills, Ravens: -2.3

24. Falcons: -3.1

25. Jets: -3.2

26. Raiders: -3.5

27. Texans: -3.7

28. Browns: -4.4

29. Vikings: -5.3

30. Redskins: -6.2

31. Jaguars: -7.6

[leviramsey]

You could say that Sammy Baugh had a good season in 1943

* As the tailback in Washington’s single wing, he completed 55.6 percent of his passes, best in the NFL that year. That might not be up to Drew Brees’s standard, but the rest of the league’s passers in ’43 completed a collective 42.6 percent of their throws.

* He threw 23 touchdown passes, second in the NFL—and third-highest all-time to that point.

* In a 48-10 bludgeoning of the Brooklyn Dodgers, he passed for 376 yards and six TDs, both single-game records.

* As a defensive back, he had 11 interceptions, which broke another league record.

* He averaged an NFL-leading 45.9 yards a punt, often flipping the field with a well-timed quick kick. Five of his boots were longer than 70 yards. To put this in perspective, punters not named Baugh averaged a combined 37.5 yards.

* And in the midst of one of the most amazing seasons in NFL annals he had arguably the greatest single-game performance in history: In a 42-20 win over the Detroit Lions on Nov. 14, Baugh fired four touchdown passes, intercepted four passes and got off an 81-yard punt, the longest of the year in the NFL.

[rhyscartwright_avfc]

Insane

[leviramsey]

Of course part of how he achieved those long punts was his willingness to punt on 2nd or 3rd down. He did it just often enough that it forced the defense to keep a safety a good 5-10 yards further back than usual to return a possible punt (or suffer from a 50-60 yard reversal of fortune).