blandy Posted January 21, 2006 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2006 So let's have a recap. Look at the sequence of events and what we can deduce: The Ray Ranson thing opened the way to an extent, in moneyed circles, but Ellis wouldn't accept the offered (or suggested) 47 million price. Nevertheless, that someone had been interested, and a guide price in excess of 47 mill was now known. Neville and the Comers got in touch with Ellis, basing their contact on a possible 64 million formal offer (subject to...etc) Ellis said "OK" Talks about possible future role for Ellis.... agreeable to Ellis (Big step at the time) The there seem to have been 2 issues - 1 - the part of the consortium seemed to be having some second thoughts, and the price, on closer inspection of the books, and general direction being taken by Prem League football seems to have pointed towards a consortium view that the price was too high. Ellis meanwhile was drawing in the expenditure, keen to see the club's outgoings minimised in order to bolster the "asking price" in terms of Due Diligence (hence the no spend on transfers or loans) This suggests he was keen to sell at the price and consitions tentatively discussed. - I've said all this last year, sorry Then the thing began to falter. As the money people started thinking seriously about the exact value, Ellis would have perhaps held the view that he was on to a good thing. The price is way more than the club is actually worth in LSE terms, and he would get to keep a position where he could still Lord it about. But the Comers would perhaps have started to see that the price originally intimated, and on which the discussions had been based is too high. Neville, as a fan is keen to plough on, so the due dilligence starts in earnest, and there;s various "all OK' utterings from him. Ellis gets wind of the nervousness of the Comers and having let the thought of all that money and some peace and respect and whatever settle in his psyche, starts getting more anxious. At this people around him start to be a little bolder, despite the experience of previous "perhaps you should seek a buyer" proponents, Ansell and Langham. SO Ellis starts to fret that really these Irishmen need to get a move on. Buit they don't. They keep schtum, leaving Neville to soothe. Ellis isn't having it. Comers are feeding the irish media "about to pull out, too expensive..." (bargaining chip, or just the truth?) Ellis responds with what he can "Someone Else interested" rumours and gentle "deadline hints" Eventually it seems to me, Ellis has played his last card - "Appointing someone respected to seek other bidders" This is the last part of the dance. He's saying "enough - Put up or shut up - The club's here for sale, I want to sell, the Price is 64 mill, take it or leave it, I'm not backing down." I doubt the Comers will back down either. So we're about to see whether Ellis is lucky. If he is someone else will be found, willing top pay 64 mill. If he's not, they won't and he will not be able to sell the club. Something which he has set his mind on. No doubt he is in 2 minds some of the time, when he's feeling good, he wants to stay, but mostly he feels tired and wants to get it over with, now. Now the club is formally for sale, he's done for. All the cards played. If the Comers walk, no-one else will offer him both money and a chance to stay on in some way. He won't get his third of 64 million and he won't be at Villa much more. Catch 22 - do what he hates - back down on a price, break his own delusions of his master negotiator status, shatter his own delusions, or lose the money. He's now a goner, in reality. It's hit home. When someone is disappointed and feels defeated, they become more susceptible to illness. How hard can it be to swallow your pride, when washed down with say 17 million quid instead of 21 million? When the alternative is nothing and nothingness? If he drops the price, then he can still claim to be doing so for the good of the club and emerge with some of his self esteem halo intact. If it falls through he's gonna cop some flak, get no money and soon be a footnote. Which is the better next Club announcement for Ellis "the club advises that following completion of the AVIL due dilligence process, an agreement, subject to shareholder approval..sold.. .(say) 53 million quid...to AVIL..Ellis...life President..allows club to progress.... " or "Club announces that following board meetings, Mr Ellis..steps down...AV continues to seek buyer...ill health" followed weeks later by "minutes silence following the death of...." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 and amen to that pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimmygreaves Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 So blandy, just to confirm, you think Doug is after the highest price he can get and not neccessarily whats best for the future of Aston Villa FC? I only ask because I thought the delay was all about finding the best people to take Villa forward and he wasn't just going to sell to any old asset strippers etc.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2006 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2006 Excellent summation Pete Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2006 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2006 Just a thought though, can it be Petchey who has forced £lies hand? Has he got fed up of waiting to cash in on his investment and has now started to apply what pressure he can? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blandy Posted January 21, 2006 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2006 So blandy, just to confirm, you think Doug is after the highest price he can get and not neccessarily whats best for the future of Aston Villa FC? I only ask because I thought the delay was all about finding the best people to take Villa forward and he wasn't just going to sell to any old asset strippers etc.... Not exactly, no. From his point of view ( not one that I necessarily share) he might claim that the best share price he can negotiate benefits all the shareholders. His motives for getting the best price may or may not be entirely selfish, and to some extent you can't blame anyone for asking whatever they want for something they want to sell. However on planet capitalism, reality has to set in, and a reasonable price be agreed if a sale is to be agreed. I would suspect that Ellis would like to have certain "priveleges" as part of any deal for his shares. If these personal demands prevent any deal, then he would be acting against the best interests of the shareholders, but (bizzarely) could claim they were in the overall best interests of the club (retain board position...experience...benefit new people...) Whether people see him as a deluded fantasist, a selfish egotist, or a genuinely charming and delightful man, or a mixture of all 3 and more is entirely up to them. I know what I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 interesting move we missed, in that an investment house brought 1.5% of Villa shares yesterday, never seen this before and a quick search indicates that they are not linked to anyone we know. 1. KEY INFORMATION Name of person dealing (Note 1) Gartmore Investment Management plc Company dealt in Aston Villa plc Class of relevant security to Ordinary GBP0.05 which the dealings being disclosed relate (Note 2) Date of dealing 19th January 2006 2. INTERESTS, SHORT POSITIONS AND RIGHTS TO SUBSCRIBE (a) Interests and short positions (following dealing) in the class of relevant security dealt in (Note 3) Long Short Number (%) Number (%) (1) Relevant securities 155,000 (1.35%) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
OutByEaster? Posted January 21, 2006 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2006 I wouldn't have thought that 1.35% of a company is something you buy in order to gain influence within that company, so I'd guess this is somebody trying to turn a quick profit. This isn't the kind of money you chuck away at Paddy Power though, I'm hopeful it's indicative of some sort of movement. It's becoming increasingly clear that the silence coming out of Villa park doesn't spread to everyone, I think this thread might well be approaching some sort of conclusion. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1979 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 What happens if the comer bid is dead and then lovechilds cant find a buyer for the club? You can put youre house up for sale , not sell it and take it off the market. Im willing to buy anyone a pint against deadly still being at the top next season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Denis_B Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Funny there is nothing on AVFC LSE page concerning this sale of stock...... the ybought but who sold? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bickster Posted January 21, 2006 Moderator Share Posted January 21, 2006 Gartmore are an investment house aren't they? Buying shares on behalf of whatever funds they get people to buy into (used to have a small amount invested with them) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Demitri_C Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 im very happy, not sure if this has been posted but i will post it anyway. mr fear speaks and a source from teh comers claims the move is still on Consortium still keen on Villa The consortium interested in purchasing Aston Villa remain confident a deal can be struck with the midlands club. That's despite Villa appointing major financial advisors Rothschild to find a buyer for the club. Sources close to Irish property developers, the Comer Brothers, and consortium frontman Michael Neville are optimistic "that a deal can be done soon" with Villa chairman Doug Ellis - the club's leading shareholder. Villa have been in discussions with the consortium - via their company Aston Villa Investments Limited - for the past three months with a view to a possible £64million takeover. A concrete offer has still to be received from the Comers and Neville - a lifelong Villa fan - after it had initially been hoped to complete a transaction by Christmas. Ellis, who rejected a £47million offer from a consortium including former Manchester City player Ray Ranson in the summer, is understood to have lost patience and privately his message to the Comers and Neville is along the lines of "put up or shut up". But a consortium source said: "As far as we are concerned, nothing has changed. We are still pursuing the same course of action and remain optimistic we can soon do a deal with Aston Villa." The apparent stalemate has led Ellis and the Villa board to appoint Rothschild to try to find a solution and come up with "a possible acquirer for the company". This does not necessarily rule out AVIL but now Villa have financial advisors working for them who will be able to establish the credence of the offer made by the Comers and Neville. Ellis has indicated he is finally willing to end more than two decades in charge of the club. Villa, in a statement to the Stock Exchange, report: "The board of Aston Villa has been considering how best to take the company and its principal asset, Aston Villa Football Club, onto the next stage of its development. "As per our announcement dated 31 October 2005, the board has held discussions with Aston Villa Investments Limited ("AVIL") in the context of AVIL having provided Aston Villa with an indicative proposal to acquire the company, which if converted into a firm offer, the board of Aston Villa would recommend to shareholders. "To date the board is not aware that AVIL has performed detailed due diligence on Aston Villa and has not been provided with evidence of AVIL's financial ability to proceed with an acquisition. "The board of Aston Villa has with immediate effect appointed Rothschild to act as financial adviser to help it determine the best strategy for the future of Aston Villa. "This includes, amongst other strategies, seeking a possible acquirer for the company who would build on the achievements of the current management team and pave the way for future success." Aston Villa fans and shareholders have given the thumbs up to the decision of Ellis and the board to appoint Rothschild to find a potential buyer. A statement by Aston Villa Shareholders Association and Villa Fans Combined (VFC) reads: "We are delighted the board have finally put the club in the hands of a merchant bank to seek out the best investors to take this fantastic club forward. "Right from the inception of the protest group VFC, the main thrust was for Mr Ellis to put the club in the hands of a merchant bank who could actively seek new investment for Aston Villa. "Unfortunately Mr Ellis didn't take the hint from the numerous protests and meetings. It has been clear for years that the platform has been built at Aston Villa. The main failing of the current board has been the inability to push on from that base. "Today's announcement should remedy that situation and we congratulate the board and Mr Ellis for finally doing what was required. "This now means that interested parties can approach and talk with Rothschilds as opposed to trying to negotiate directly with Mr Ellis, who does have a reputation for not listening to advice and being 'difficult'. "Rothschilds are highly respected and have obvious skills in this area and we believe their appointment will be welcomed by shareholders and fans alike. This news comes as a huge relief. "Our hope is that it will now bring forward the right purchasers for the club, not the right approaches for the major shareholder. "Who knows, we might actually attract a real sheikh as opposed to a 'fake Sheikh'. "Sven Goran Eriksson might have been indiscreet, but he was totally right when he told the undercover reporter that Aston Villa would be a great club to acquire." i for one am happy, as much as i dislike doug at least he has finally realised if he stays relegation looms within the next five years or less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest RantinRob Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 Come on lads...........we gonna get to 100 pages or what? ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MilansMate Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 i'd be shocked if we didn't! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 "A whole pile of bills were in the "in" tray still to be settled on the new stand, firms who had supplied services had not been paid, there were stories circulating of "missing" funds, though I never had actual evidence of this, and the whole atmosphere seemed to be one of suspicion. I will not dwell on this unhappy state of affairs, other than to observe that Aston Villa FC did not possess the feeling one would expect in a club which has been well-managed behind the scenes". The words of our current chairman in 1982 rather than our next one in 2006. :winkold: He also said (after selling up to Bendall) "First I had to learn to endure life without Aston Villa as the club enjoyed its finest hours with a set-up I had done so much to bring about, largely through the youth policy we had introduced and which had borne fruit with some magnificent home produce" and (when turning down Brian Clough's offer to manage us) "Look, Brian. It would never work. There is only one boss at Aston Villa and that's me". Let's hope he will soon have to endure life without Aston Villa again as it has another opportunity to have some more finest hours without him as the one and only boss of AVFC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahamaad Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 I think it's virtually impossible for him now, Ian. A lot has been said about Doug, however, by getting Rothschilds in he has done a fantastic thing in letting people who know about these things look for a owner, and fair play to him for that. He had little choice from what I can gather. health problems coming to the forefront I am afraid. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahamaad Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 One question and I might sound stupid for saying this: What happens if the Comers pull out and we are left with a club for sale at a highly inflated price and no buyer? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 if the Comer's pull out and Doug has to sell (otherwise why bring a bank in ?) then the price can only come down and maybe thats wants the COmer's want ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ahamaad Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 What if the Comers pull out, nobody comes in and Doug who still owns us says 'Not for sale anymore'? I take it this Rothschilds are like an estate agents? You can always tell an estate agents that you don't want to sell anymore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ianrobo1 Posted January 21, 2006 Share Posted January 21, 2006 they are but very very expensive and it is an high risk by Doug if it is him who brought them in. but if they place a more relasitic value and they are used to dealing in bigger fish and more complicated, maybe they are deal maker ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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