Jump to content

Super Bowl XLIII thread


Tegis

Who will win it?  

30 members have voted

  1. 1. Who will win it?

    • Cardinals
      13
    • Steelers
      17


Recommended Posts

Well, we got one of the teams participating. Arizona Cardinals. Will the Steelers or the Ravens join them?

edit: And Steelers it is.

And the free channel TV6 in Sweden will show it so no streamlag for me this year. Yessss!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Don't really care too much since the Giants lost; but it is nice that we'll have at least one more year of the Eagles having never won a Super Bowl.

Indeed!

I should have stuck with my initial predictions also as i picked the Ravens initially!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Think the Cards will sneak it.

* Warner can be a very fast-release quarterback, which negates some of the Steeler pass rush; if combined with a good showing from Edge, LeBeau might have to abandon the zone blitz scheme, which is the linchpin of a LeBeau defense.

and perhaps more importantly:

* There are few offensive coaches who know LeBeau as well as Whisenhunt. I can assure you that in the process of scrimmaging during his tenure with the Steelers, Whisenhunt figured out what an offense could do to give the Steeler defense fits.

With those two things, I don't think Arizona will have much trouble scoring. And that's nearly half the battle.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The Steelers by 7 line is very interesting, also.

The Steelers have always been a "public" team: there's always an avalanche of Steeler money from their fans. This tends to inflate the line (obviously). I was expecting something more in the 10pt range, myself.

I think there's three possible and two likely explanations, both of which likelies point to Cardinals upset:

* the books don't care about getting an imbalance toward Steeler bets (and thus having a huge exposure to a Steeler cover)... given the current financial environment in Vegas, this is unlikely.

* the books are expecting a ton of smart money to come in on the Cardinals and 7 points represents a balanced line

* the books internal projections indicate that the true line is something like pick'em (ie no handicap) and even if they get a surges of Steeler money, the c. 7 point edge on those bets is enough to make them confident

Link to comment
Share on other sites

the true line is something like pick'em

Surely not.

Paddypower has the Steelers by only 6.5pts which is very interesting as the TD becomes a huge difference. To win outright he has them @ 27/10 on from scratch, with the Cards @ 11/5. From those odds, that suggests that either the Cards are very tempting odds or the handicap bet favours the Steelers hugely. Either way, depending on who you fancy, one of those bets is very good.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

×
×
  • Create New...
Â