TomC

He isn't average and he isn't top either. There's plenty of room between those descriptions. He's above average. We've only had two truly world-class players in recent times: Grealish and (maybe) Martinez (who also makes the occasional bad error). Above average describes much of the rest of the team. If we can sign two centre backs like Dias, Thiago Silva (brilliant today), Chiellini, Van Dijk, Stones, Maguire, then great, let's have Konsa and Mings sit on the bench as cover. Until then, they're good enough for us to take the next step forward. Then hopefully we'll be in a position to start attracting a few truly world class players.

I think that I might have to give up on trying to predict how he's going to play on any given day. He's become too unpredictable. So far this year we've started 4-2-3-1, 4-3-3 (sort of 4-1-2-3), and 3-5-2, and have also used 4-1-4-1 and 4-4-2. He has the players to be flexible and he is being flexible. This is good.

He received the ball in dangerous positions several times. Every time, there was a Chelsea defender instantly stuck to him. He got marked out of the game. He may not be good enough to unlock a defense like that on his own, but he will score plenty of goals for us this year.

"They weren't at their best today but they won without being at their best because they've got some people who've got that stardust." Spot on.

I'm skeptical of xG but it's probably about right here. We would ordinarily have one from the chances we created but for some world-class defending/goalkeeping. Make it 3-1. One of their goals was almost entirely because of a dreadful Mings mistake, not anything they created. Make it 2-1. Lukaku is good enough to give you more goals than you might otherwise have. With most strikers, make it 1-1. The thing is, when you have 4-5 world class players on the pitch, you will get a better result than xG or any other stat can predict.

This is an excellent point. I praised how many of Chelsea's players were world class, but Saúl clearly was not. The good news is that at least half the teams in the Premier League will field players who will play like he did, and won't have anybody better to bring off the bench.

The difference today? Two world class goals by Lukaku, two not-world-class mistakes by Mings, and several world-class saves by Mendy. On the positive side, we're clearly good enough to finish top 10. On the negative side, we're still a long way from challenging from the Champions League. Comments on some players: Cash: One of his best Villa matches. Outstanding first half. Probably my MOM despite Ramsey's excellence. Mings: Are his ribs still bothering him? Terrible giveaway for the second goal, made look silly for the third. Out of sorts. Disappointing. Tuanzebe: On the first goal, I can't get mad that he lost Lukaku at the end because Lukaku did something world-class. But he should have been in position to deny Lukaku from getting the ball in midfield the first place. On the third goal, he got caught ball watching and lost Lukaku completely. Disappointing. McGinn: Hard working as usual. Ramsey: Excellent again. Watkins: Excellent as usual. Full of energy until the end. Might have done better with a couple opportunities, but not even Lewandowski gets them all. Bailey: I like this guy. Tracks back and presses too. Ings: Got the ball in dangerous positions, but the Chelsea defenders were on him every time. Can't really fault his performance, just the victim of excellent defending. He will prey on weaker defenses. Deano: Got the tactics right. The first half was outstanding. Might have made tactical changes earlier in the second half, but the bottom line was that the second goal took the wind out of our sails and I doubt that it would have made a difference. Chelsea: Mendy was world class, Kovacic was world class, Lukaku was world class, the defense (especially Thiago Silva) was world class. Proud that we went toe-to-toe with them in the first half, but they're clearly a cut above us. A threat to win the Champions League again, and the Premier League too.

As a prediction, and assuming Konsa is out, I expect 4-3-3: Steer Cash Axel Mings Young Dougie Ramsey McGinn Bailey Ings Ghaza I would start Watkins instead of Ghaza even if he's not fully fit, but I don't think that's what Deano will do. I'd rather get off to a solid start and Ollie's pressing would help. If he can't make it the full 90, you can make a tactical substitution based on the game situation. If you need a goal, bring on Ghaza or Chuk or (if available) Traore (switching Bailey to the other wing). If you're protecting a lead, bring on another defender (maybe Targett and push Young into midfield to play 4-4-2).

I agree with you on the big picture level: We could play 4-3-3 with a the middle 3 more of a 1-2 or a 2-1, or could play a 4-2-3-1. I disagree on some of the details about the players. If we play a traditional 3-man midfield, I have no problem with Dougie, McGinn, and Ramsey, whether the middle is more of a 4-1-2-3 or a 4-2-1-3. Dougie distributes and defends, Ramsey distributes, McGinn defends and scores. That's a good mix of skills. Sanson can rotate in, though from what little I've seen, he's most like McGinn, i.e. defends and scores. Two games is a short sample, but I'm pretty confident Ramsey has already progressed with the ball. His passing from deep has looked to be at least as good as Dougie's so far. The next thing to watch for is whether his defensive skills have progressed enough to play in the 2 in a 4-2-3-1 or whether he will be used only in a 4-3-3. I didn't see enough of his defending in the more advanced role last Saturday to judge whether he's progressed in that role. Chuk is going to see more time this year but will be mostly a sub. I expect that it will at least another year before he sees big minutes. He doesn't figure much into my thinking yet (but I will be happy to be proven wrong). I agree about Nakamba. His passing against Watford looked a little better than last year but I still don't see a future for him except maybe as a specialist substitute when you're trying to defend a late lead. What's the point of having a good ball winner if he gives it right back? Like you said, the base 1 of a 4-1-2-3 needs to distribute. He can't. If you play him it all, it has to be 4-2-1-3 or 4-2-3-1 (or 4-4-2). My main disagreement with you and Delphinho is about Dougie. Interesting to look back at Delphinho's very first post in this thread... I agreed saw the same thing back then (February). They got tired. That's understandable. We frequently played 4-2-3-1, they had a lot of work to do, and they played almost every game. I wouldn't worry about Dougie based on his post-February performances. At his best, he's good enough to get us into the top 6. He's not merely a mid-table sort of player. Brazil thought enough of him to name him to their Copa America squad! He looked like he's getting back to his best against Newcastle. Keeping him fresh is going to be the problem after a long season last year and two tournaments this summer. We need Sanson healthy soon so we can rotate. Squad depth is what is going to make this year better than last.

I don't think so, at least not as I see his game. His strengths are defending and scoring goals. He's a "box-to-box" midfielder in the original sense, which is doing those two things but not much responsible for playmaking in between. As long as he has freedom to get forward, which I think he will, he's fine in the 4-2-3-1. The 4-2-3-1 as most teams play it assumes that at least one of the pivots will join the attack; it's not intended to be a negative formation with only 4 players attacking. When McGinn does get forward, It will probably look more like a 4-1-4-1 sometimes; other times Bailey or Buendia will have to track back when he gets forward. I saw Buendia track back plenty against Newcastle. I haven't seen enough of Bailey to know if he's responsible defensively. The bigger question right now in my mind is that now that Rambo has forced his way into plans, do you play a 4-3-3 with all of Dougie, Rambo, and McGinn? Then you do have to choose among Bailey, Watkins, Buendia, Ings, and Traore. As CVByrne put it...

Sorry to repeat myself from another thread, but if it's Watkins, Bailey, and Buendia behind Ings in a 4-2-3-1, all three of them may have license to roam. Buendia shows up everywhere, Bailey supposedly operated on both wings at Leverkusen, Watkins can operate on the left or in the center. I can imagine them switching to confuse defenders. We looked less rigid in attack on Saturday than last year and I even saw Cash show up on the left once and Young and El Ghazi on the right.

It's going to be tough to fit everyone in when everyone's healthy! I still think that Smith will play a 4-2-3-1 a lot with Ings up front and maybe Watkins - Buendia - Bailey in the 3. Watkins can operate on the left or centrally, Bailey can operate on the right or left, Buendia seemed to have license to roam against Newcastle and even popped up the left a few times. I can see them switching constantly to confuse defenders. But if you do 4-2-3-1, how do you choose among Ramsey, McGinn, and Luiz? Not to mention Sanson when he's finally health? Questions, questions. The starting XI chose itself last year. I'd rather have these sorts of problems. I just remember that this is a Danny Ings thread, so I think I've drifted off-topic...

A few thoughts after watching the match in full: Buendia: I know that some around here have not been impressed with him yet, but I thought he was excellent in the first half. No, he hasn’t delivered the killer ball for a goal yet. No, he’s not as much fun to watch as Grealish. But every time he got the ball, he made an intelligent pass. And except for one poor free kick late in the first half, every pass was on target. Not to mention that he presses well and he tracks back. If Grealish did as much on defense as Buendia, Southgate probably would have started him this summer. He’s not as good as Grealish on attack but I think we are going to be happy that we signed him. I'm not expecting another Grealish, just a good player. I also found it interesting how much license Deano seems to be giving him to roam. Yes, generally speaking, he was on the right this week, but he often drifted center and a few times even popped up all the way on the left. Cash: Much better in defense this week. I thought he was good going forward against Watford and good again in that regard this week. Martinez: I didn’t see anyone else mention it so I will: Wilson did not just miss in the 5th minute. Emi helped make him miss. Watch how big he makes himself and how that affects how much goal Wilson had to shoot at. It was subtle, but it was a good piece of goalkeeping. Ramsey: Obviously another good performance. I did find it interesting how, after being so effective from deep last week, Deano seemed to push him forward this week (see below). I thought his best passes still came from deep again this week as we were coming out of defense (not to say that he was bad when he was forward). I saw someone here saying that he’s a potential #10 but given the distribution he's shown the last two matches, I'd rather see him develop as an Italian-style regista, i.e. the deep lying playmaker. Formation: Deano showed a lot more flexibility than he usually did last year. Some people have called what we played a 4-3-3 but I would say the first half was more a 4-1-2-3, with Ramsey and McGinn further forward and Luiz staying deep. I mentioned above that Buendia had license to roam but he wasn’t the only one. I saw Ghaza and Young pop up on the right, Cash on the left…we were not rigid at all in attack, which is good. In the second half, the defense looked more like a 4-4-2 (with Buendia tucking on our right) or even at times a 4-5-1 (with Ghaza tucking in on the left), with players taking turns coming forward to be a little less predictable. It was very interesting to watch.

Yes, but that assumes that the "wide" forward is a traditional winger. I see Watkins in something more like the Grealish role, i.e. cutting in from the left. As I just pointed out in another thread, the trend for the last 10 years (especially in a 4-2-3-1 but even in a 4-3-3) is for the "wide" forwards to cut in rather than hug the line and cross like a traditional winger. The full backs are expected to get forward and provide the crosses instead. Although not necessarily true, that's why many modern "wide" forwards have their strong foot inside. Grealish is right-footed and plays on the left; Watkins would be the same. Traditional wingers almost always have their strong foot outside. (I would not expect Watkins to exactly match the Grealish role, i.e. come back deep and carry the ball forward. He's better at holding up the early ball forward...something he can still do on the left.)

You can be booked (or sent off) regardless whether the ball is in play or not, so it doesn't matter that the play was offside. Emi committed a cautionable offense. However, you can't be sent off specifically for DOGSO if the play was offside because it wasn't a clear goal scoring opportunity. Because the offside occurred before the yellow card offense, the play still restarts with a free kick for the earlier offense, i.e. Villa got the free kick.

Sure they can. If Deano goes 4-3-3 like today, put Watkins on the left of the front 3. If he goes 4-2-3-1 like last week, put Watkins in the left of the 3. He played on the left at Brentford.

Yes. It's not that unusual these days, especially in a 4-2-3-1 but even in a 4-3-3. The wide forwards cut in, the full backs attack and provide the true width.

You can be booked (or sent off) regardless whether the ball is in play or not, so it doesn't matter that the play was offside. However, you can't be sent off specifically for DOGSO if the play was offside because it wasn't a clear goal scoring opportunity.

Rambo...I like it...

Sanson, Watkins, Bailey, Trarore out. What do you expect? Just imagine that lineup if we hadn't bought Ings or Buendia. Then we'd really have problems. If we've gone from being below average when missing lots of key players to being average when missing lots of key players, that's an upgrade.

I'm hoping that by making him sound like Gazza/Gascoigne he will turn into a world class superstar!

I think that he plays on their left/our right, which means he's up against Cash. I don't think that he has that much confidence in Ghaz. If Traore or Bailey were fit, he would not be starting Ghaz. I'm not sure whether he's planning on using Ghaz on our right again, but Ghaz does not have the pace to track back and help out against Maximin. I hope that's not our undoing today.

I'll be bold with my prediction... Ings Bailey - Buendia - McGinn Ramsey - Dougie Young - Mings - Konsa - Cash Martinez In other words, how we finished last week, except with Dougie for Nakamba, and without the late sub Traore for Buendia. Ramsey was good last week and deserves the start. McGinn did well when pushed further forward. Furthermore, I read that Newcastle like to attack down their left/our right, so Deano may want McGinn providing some help for Cash. We know McGinn will track back and it might look more like a Christmas tree 4-3-2-1 on defense. On attack, Buendia and McGinn could swap from what I posted above. If Cash has a nightmare, maybe he pushes Konsa over and brings on Tuanzebe. Young instead of Targett may be a little controversial, but I suspect that after last week's nightmare, Deano is going to want to ease Targett back in. I suspect he'll bring him on in the second half.

I disagree. That's only four attacking players. Are you saying we should play with only three attackers in the whole side and with three defensive midfielders in front of the back four? Everyone would soon be complaining that we don't score enough goals. In any formation, you need midfielders who can attack but also track back. In a 4-2-3-1, two or three players in the 3 need to track back, making it more like a 4-5-1 or 4-4-1-1 when defending. Part of our problem on Saturday was that the players in the 3 didn't get back. Ghaz is too slow for that...he's not a midfielder; as I've said before, he's an old-fashioned centre-forward whose sole talent is striking the ball. Buendia just didn't do it, except on their third goal, where he had to cover for Cash who got caught upfield, and where his defensive abilities were worryingly exposed. Young clearly can still defend—he stopped Sarr in the second half when he moved into Targett's role—but probably was told to stay high like Buendia apparently was. Ings wasn't supposed to track back as the 1. On top of that, Targett and Cash pressed forwards quite a bit in the first half, further leaving us exposed on the wings. On top of that, McGinn's defending was not as good as usual in the first half. Finally, we missed Ollie's pressing. (Watford pressed far better than we did.) The 4-2-3-1 came into style about the same time that aggressive pressing came into style and the two seem to go together. You need a couple guys to press and slow down the attack so the others can get back and help defend. McGinn is usually a pretty good defender. Nakamba's sole redeeming quality is defending. You had two capable DMs out there. They got overrun because they just didn't get any support. But that doesn't mean adding another DM, which is just going to create a different problem. Instead, the players in the 3 need to chip in on defending, and in Saturday's case, Targett needed to recognize much earlier that Sarr was too fast for him and stop joining the attack. The bigger problem with the McGinn and Nakamba pairing was that neither can pass the ball. If you're going to run a 4-2-3-1, one of the pivots needs to be able to start the attack from deep. Dougie is better in that regard. Sanson, if they use him that way, will be better in that regard. One of them will be favored over Nakamba when they're ready. Or maybe Ramsey will. He seemed to slot into the pivot role when he came on and McGinn seemed to go forward. He did a pretty good job distributing from deep. I will not be surprised to see him start against Newcastle. He's been overlooked (including by me) in all the preseason hype about the new players, but he may have a bigger role this year than any of us suspected.

Agreed with the first comment. His problem defending is that he has mental lapses/concentration issues. He gets caught ball-watching too often. The mental lapses also be the cause for over-committing, but it's harder to tell. They could be conscious risk-taking. I also don't think he's been the same since his injury. Yes, the weakest of the four, but not below our current level. If we keep progressing, he would be the first that I'd want to upgrade.