hooter

Done to death, sliding scale based on how far they've driven a horse and cart though the numbers, with add on for being cheeky **** and signing Pedersen. Your fate lies in the extent to which the number, once projected in the Spring, for this season and the last two, exceeds allowable levels. It is now very formulaic as I understand it. I'm sure your owners have a plan, many others will be watching it and it's success no doubt.

Parody account I assume ? The Villa doing it's bit for the local comedy scene ? To be applauded. Strachan, Batty, McAllister Speed all played in this division then became champions of England 2 years later, benchmark for the "greatest" Jack ? Closer to now, whilst Grealish was being pictured smashed off hIs nut, Lewis Cook was captaining his country to victory in the U20 World Cup. He has since gone on to gain a full England cap, be standby for the world cup squad, and now a regular high performer in the PL. Oh, and he is younger than your mercurial boy wonder. You'll not get another £25 million bid, that ship sailed.

Gareth Bale says hi.

Saiz is a strange one. First off to declare my hand, I love the guy, from the moment he turned up he has days when he does stuff no Leeds player for 15 years has been capable of. In full flow he looks way better than Championship standard, and that has been the case this season so far, and as early last season. We did get an enquiry in the summer from Valencia, but I think he fancied the idea of playing for Bielsa, and Bielsa does seem to have got him focussed, but of course time will tell. The back story to Saiz might be a cautionary tale for Grealish as it happens. As a kid Saiz was playing for the B teams of large Spanish clubs (including Real and Athletico Madrid), as is their way, and his career was a litany of great deeds, followed by night club incidents and disciplinary issues. Eventually he settled down at Huesca, seemed to play for their manager, and we took a punt. If you are familiar with racehorses you'll know what Timeform's "squiggle" represents, a deeply suspect temperament, and last season we saw it, culminating in the spit at Newport which saw him rightly get a 6 match ban, he was never the same player afterwards. Has Bielsa changed him ? We'll see. If so, and if as a result he maintains his current form, then the only way he'll be at Leeds next season is if we are promoted. I'm enjoying him now and we'll see where we go, he's glorious at the moment. Pablo is different, a very clever player, and we miss him, but he was never going to play 46 games in a season, his hamstrings do go once a season it seems. Better now than March I guess. From what I've seen of Grealish he should play further forward or you are wasting his ability to go past a man, but either way I thought £25 mill was a big price, it'll be interesting to see how he plays out, my gut feel is if he leaves Villa now it'll be for less than that.

He has had a few big problems, linked to various mental health/addiction issues. It is suggested he has recovered well. He was a talented kid, I hope someone gives him a chance, it is a gamble but a cheap one now .

I doubt we'll do a Wolves, and hope we slightly exceed a Derby. Obviously you are a potential rival so I hope Bruce remains in place for a while yet. As an outsider looking in, your pursuit of a lame and expensive winger from Everton rather than a capable defender appeared an odd decision, but then I once saw him decline chili sauce on his kebab when paying a visit to my mum and dad, so frankly his thought processes baffle me. We tend to find novel ways to **** up, and may do again, I'll be likely to be having a pint or two in the Yew Tree in late December either way, deep under cover and hopefully still smug. ?

Anyway, Bruce IN, speak soon. ?

copy and paste re this "Bielsa burnout" factor. I know Keith Andrews and similar football brains have accepted it as a fact, but it isn't obvious when you look at facts. Now please don't take this as smugness , or a declaration of our promotion (I remember a tweet "announce avfc championship winners" just before one of your friendlies last year, that went well...) but what it does do is show whatever pitfalls may await Bielsa's experiment (and I don't doubt there are many), this "inevitable burnout" stuff is a bit lame and uninformed, I'd settle for beaten Europa league finalists right now, maybe that proves how small time we are. ? "It has become received wisdom that Bielsa teams burnout and cannot sustain their form over the course of a long season. You would think that this would mean that his teams tend to win fewer games and accrue fewer points as the season goes on. I had a little look at his previous seasons in management to see if this was the case, going back to Velez Sarsfield in 97/98. The first thing to remark on is that there isn't a huge amount of data. In the last 20 years he has only completed 4 full seasons of club management. He didn't take a single game with Lazio in 2016, only had 14 with Lille in 2017 and only 6 with Espanyol in 1998 so they aren't really worthy of analysis in this respect. The rest of his time was spent in international management which obviously doesn't have the same regularity as club football. I decided to split the seasons into four quarters to compare points tallies across the year. Taking it in chronological order: Velez Sarsfield 97/98. (NB: the Argentine season in this era was played in two distinct parts with two champions. However, it was effectively a 38 game season with a long winter break between the end of December and start of February). - Matches 1-9: W4 D3 L2 - 15 points - Matches 10-19: W4 D5 L1 - 17 points - Matches 20-28: W6 D2 L1 - 20 points - Matches 29-38: W8 D2 L0 - 26 points Athletic Bilbao 11/12 - Matches 1-9: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points - Matches 10-19: W3 D5 L2 - 14 points - Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points - Matches 29-38: W3 D3 L4 - 12 points Athletic Bilbao 12/13 - Matches 1-9: W2 D2 L5 - 8 points - Matches 10-19: W4 D1 L4 - 13 points - Matches 20-28: W3 D2 L4 - 11 points - Matches 29-38: W3 D4 L3 - 13 points Marseille 14/15 - Matches 1-9: W7 D1 L1 - 22 points - Matches 10-19: W6 D1 L3 - 19 points - Matches 20-28: W3 D3 L3 - 12 points - Matches 29-38: W5 D1 L4 - 16 points So bearing in mind that I only looked at regular season league matches and haven't gone back beyond the 20 year mark (as I don't think this popular reputation for burnout comes from the distant past in central and South America) we can see that the points totals are fairly evenly spread across the four quarters. At Velez the league form got stronger as things went on, whereas at Bilbao there is pretty much a consistency between all sectors. At Marseille the team got off to an absolute flyer and were top for a while before slipping down the table but the dip over time wasn't especially dramatic (they finished 4th) and that kind of blinding start followed by a tail off wasn't characteristic of his Bilbao team. If anyone is interested, I also found this analysis of statistics relating to the Marseille pressing tactics: https://saturdaysoncouch.wordpress.com/2015/04/08/taking-a-look-at-this-years-bielsa-burnout/. The takeaway point is that measured by possession turnovers in the attacking third there isn't anything particularly remarkable about the effectiveness of the press. Moreover, although the press did drop deeper as the game went on the ability to score goals late in a game appeared undiminished. It seems to me that the reputation for burnout comes from (a) the blistering start that Marseille made, which realistically they were never going to maintain and (b) the defeats that Bilbao suffered in the Europa League and Copa Del Rey finals. Suffering at the final hurdle is often put down to exhaustion but it isn't reflected in league performance as far as I can see. At some point we will go through a sticky patch as does every team and it will undoubtedly be put down to burnout because that is the media narrative for Bielsa. We aren't going to maintain a 2.6 points-per-game average regardless of physical fitness. But there is no real reason to think that we are going to completely collapse either.

I may well do. I'm not smug by the way, 15 years out of the top flight ensures that, you may find that out, who knows ? But it also means you grasp positive developments for your team with both hands, and watch the smugness of others with a nod to your own past. Enjoy your season, I'm sure whatever happens I'll enjoy mine. ?

You think you've got it bad ? At least you're still "there or thereabouts", we've got to wait for the pundit-declared inevitability of "Bielsa burnout", don't know you're born you lot....?

Significantly I doubt those few are to be found in either the dugout or the boardroom, but you never know I guess.

Yes, our memories of McCormack are considerably happier than yours, but few would have him back now, I'm afraid he isn't what he was, largely due to issues such as that. He wouldn't last 10 minutes under Bielsa, and would be padlocking his gates shut by day two. As for Richards, I'd rather have Viv than Micah...?

I think you might struggle to find anyone willing to own up to that beauty.

Jansson was at the world cup so only arrived back a week or so before the season started, just as he got match fit he picked up a slight back injury, hopefully he'll be back either Saturday or Tuesday. It has been revealed this week that we have turned down a bid of £10 million for him from some Russian outfit, so I don't think he'll be loaned out. Pearce is reserve to Douglas, Bielsa has said he wants a trim squad with 2 players for each position, again, you can ask as nicely as you like, but I think the answer will be no. Can I interest you in Vurnon Anita ? Or if you are short a coward in midfield, Eunan O'Kane, they are both available to loan...?

Why the H ? Has the area been renamed since my youth ? Or do you intend to pay tribute to the ex-Bluenose striker of that name ? ?

Yes, I remember how tastefully those Salford words removed marketed the 60th anniversary of Munich "in association with AIG". Proper classy. Either pay tribute, or take the coin, don't try and disguise one as the other.

Very sad news. When I was a kid I harboured dreams of being a sports journalist, and I wrote to Saunders when he was manager of Small Heath to ask if I could do an interview for the school magazine. (I did one with Barton the previous month). Ron's secretary rang me, and off I went to interview him in his office. I had my tape recorder running and he gave me nearly an hour of his time, answering every question I asked. At the end I turned off my tape and we chatted for a few minutes, during which he uttered the legendary phrase "yes but everyone in football knows Gary Newbon is pig ignorant". Off I went to write up the interview, and couldn't resist including that quote. Once published I sent Saunders a copy in the post. I was sitting in a History class a couple of days later when the school secretary hoiked me out of class. "Mr Saunders has been on the phone and wants to see you in his office immediately, he sounded pretty angry" Off I went to catch the No. 8 bus, more than a little concerned. Looking back he did it brilliantly. His secretary gave me a stern look and said "go through". He sat with my printed interview in his hand and said "Gary Newbon is pig ignorant...?" As I shuffled uncomfortably he roared at me that I'd never be a journalist if I didn't respect the privacy of off the record comments (he was right, I never was !) . Once I had stopped apologising he pressed his intercom "send him through". In walked a very serious looking Noel Blake. "If you ever do that to me again it'll be this fella that you'll be dealing with not me...". "Show him out Noel". I proper shit myself, but looking back he was trying to teach me something in his own rather unique style. Wish him all the best.

"outsourcing" your catering reduces revenue, and really doesn't help. See LUFC post bates. What it actually means is you've taken a payment back then on the condition the lender gets the revenue now. Xia sold future revenues, as did bates with us. They have gone. I could probably even tell you the name of the company you've "outsourced" to if I could search through e-mails, they've done it with loads of clubs, Glasgow Rangers for instance a few years back...it's Wonga for skint clubs, not some clever play...

Time will tell I guess.

Well, the EFL will start to look 1st March. If you've a risk appetite I'd guess you try and get what good loans you can now, and take a view in January ? Especially if you think you've a very valuable asset you can sell to make the numbers add up then ? Just a guess, but you really don't need Grealish to have a serious dip in form, or a serious injury, I suspect he is still your insurance policy. Having "billionaire owners" will not in itself make this issue go away, there is a bet on the table.

This is the salient point. Fines can be appealed, but points in effect are "owned" by the EFL and are theirs to award or remove as they wish. See Swindon years back.

Correct. A good explanation of the new FFP tests and their implementation and implications here. I'd suggest 1st March2019 is the important date for you guys, especially as you'll have lost the £35 million PL season allowance for the first time once the 3 seasons in focus are 16/17, 17/18 and 18/19, which they will be from that date. Spoiler, it mentions the woes of your near neighbours, which I'm sure upset you all greatly. ? https://www.mikethornton.xyz/new-ffp-tests/

Do you have any knowledge of dealing with Shaun Harvey ?

My point being once we were indebted to HMRC they took the opportunity to drive us into admin to seek a court case to set a precedent fixing HMRC debt alongside football debt. But as a layman, I'd suggest when your cash flow means you can't pay bills falling due, those bills become debt, and when that debt is owed to intolerant creditors.....

The reason HMRC drove us into admin way back when was they had the arse ache that football debts get preferential treatment over theirs. But bates skittled them, and it never went to court. Similar with Pompey I believe. I don't know if HMRC ever got to make a challenge in court that their debt should rank alongside football debt. You might like to ask your trust to find out. This is the obvious problem if you go into admin. Bates engineered ours, so if he won it his friends in the BVI Krato and Astor "absolved" £37 mill of debt, if he lost admin they didn't. So the word removed got the club back whilst screwing genuine creditors, up to and including St John's Ambulances Where does your debt lie ? All football debt survives admin, so Micah, Ross and the boys get paid regardless. It seems much recent borrowing is against assets ? Well in an admin, the lenders would just take the assets and **** off as I understand it ? There is "no bank debt" which might prove a little dispiriting, as unlike banks, very few shady lenders will have lent money to Xia unsecured. So what debt exactly would you shed in admin ? Genuine question to those who understand it better, from one who saw admin mean an even bigger rinsing ?