Thug
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Everything posted by Thug
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Joking apart, at the beginning of the season I would have expected the following points: Bournemouth 2.5 Everton 2 Palace 1.5 West Ham 1.5 Arsenal 0.5 Man City 0 Leicester 1 Southampton 2 Leeds 2 ————————— I would have expected 13 points from the first 9 games. So to meet expectations he would need another 10 points from these next 6 So below 8 points = sacked 8-9 with decent performances buys a little time. 10+ and he’s off the hook.
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Lol ok, 18 points and a + 30 gd
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That’s because we have a policy of signing midgets. It used to be young midgets. Now it’s old midgets
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Freudian slip?
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Lovely post by @TrentVilla at the time. Have a retrospective virtual like.
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Lol. so saving his own bacon wasn’t on his agenda at all?
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Yes. It depends on the timeframe in question. And as you rightly point out, this study is performed in a very specific crisis situation. Im assuming the x-axis is games. So 5 games pre and post sacking. By the very nature of the term ‘bounce’ I suppose it has to be a short time-frame. What this study shows to me, is the presence of a bounce is undisputed. It just takes the credit away from the new manager. Which was my point all along.
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The PPG is important, but performances go a long way to mitigating. I think if we were playing well, but not getting the points on the board, I’d be more forgiving because I could see some positives momentum. In that run to Smith getting sacked, we played Wolves off the park fof 80 minutes. Total control before we capitulated in a freakish way. The following two games were a total shambles, but before that we were ok. The Bournemouth and palace games have honestly been as bad as I can remember us. The first half against Everton was very good, the second was god awful. I hate watching us right now. We’re insistent on an appalling tactic that doesn’t suit our players, and we’re incapable of adjusting in-game. The Bolton game was a nice and welcome win, but let’s face it, it was no great performance. I sincerely hope that Gerrard starts to win games and ends up being our manager for the next 20 seasons. But losing to West Ham should be the final straw
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Thanks for the study. Great food for thought.
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To be fair to @nick76 , that’s exactly what your study is telling us. That statistically, we would have had that uplift in points due to a natural bounce. So Gerrard’s PPG is skewed to the positive by taking over a club in poor form.
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Absolutely correct. Smith should not have been sacked for his 5 consecutive defeats. The case for sacking him because of the results over the previous 30 Matches had credence. Sacking Gerrard for the first 3 games this season again is pointless. Sacking him for the complete lack of progress over the previous 30 matches is as warranted as the Smith sacking.
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Yes. Agreed.
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Ok, so what that study shows is that there is indeed a bounce, but not necessarily due to the new manager, but a nutural bounce following poor form. So Gerrard can’t even take credit for the bounce - Because statistically, keeping Smith in charge would’ve yielded the same results?
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Lol enjoy!
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Because you don’t unlearn things in a day or a week. 1 year on, we’re worse than we’ve ever been. We’re predictable, error prone, and scared to have the ball. We are absolutely no better than where smith had us. And I believe keeping Smith would have had us in a similar position to where we are now. Swapping Smith for Gerrard has been a completely pointless exercise that has wasted a year of progression.
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Which would make perfect sense. I suspect that the study @HKP90 is referring to has had its results misinterpreted. Would be interesting to read it.
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Can I get a link to that please? would be an interesting read with regards to the perspective. I think that it would go without saying that the presence of a new manager would increase the effort put in by players in an attempt to impress. It’s just normal human psychology. That would naturally wear off and things return to baseline.
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We got a new manager and got some decent results for the first few games. We have been utter dogshit since. It’s about as classic an example of new manager bounce you will ever witness.
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The creativity problem is easily resolved by stopping attacking with our fullbacks. We have 2 very gifted no.10’s and (had) some very gifted wingers. There’s no bloody need to have Cash running 80 yards to crash the ball into the first defender every time. Even when the ball does get into the area, we don’t have a Calvert-Lewin in the box ffs. Let our fullbacks be normal fullbacks. That stops our midfield getting dragged apart in desperate attempts to cover for their ‘Marauding’ runs. I would much rather have McGinn or Ramsay putting in the balls than Cash for gods sake.
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I’m firmly in the Gerrard out camp. However, I have to say that last night’s selection of a strong team was his only real option. We lost that, he’d be unemployed now - and with such a catastrophic failure, not likely be up for any decent gig anytime soon. Also, the players needed that. So whilst it’s disappointing that some of our fringe players didn’t get a run out, there were bigger things at stake.
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Oh and another for comparison sake for the same period that got Smith the sack… 8 months. All very interesting stuff.
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And here’s another from January 1st 2022. After the new manager bounce wore off, and Smiths ideas were starting to be replaced by Gerrards…
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I don’t know why the Gerrard defenders seem to think that everyone who wants him out must hate him or have a personal grudge against him. I want him gone. But I’m delighted we won today. And if he continues winning, I’d love the guy. I want my team to win, and I WANT him to deliver that. However, I just can’t see him doing it. THAT’s why I’d have him sacked now. Not because I have some irrational dislike for him.
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Mate. I’d take that all day long. Problem is we’re playing like an 18-20 place PL team.
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Appalling first half, but it’s the result that counts. But for some appalling finishing, could’ve been 7. Gerrard needed to win it, and he did. The real test will be the weekend.
