terrytini

https://www.healthline.com/health-news/what-south-korea-has-done-correctly-in-battling-covid-19 The difference between USA approach and that of South Korea. The United States is reporting 15 times more confirmed COVID-19 cases and deaths than South Korea despite having only about six times the population.

Every scrap of good news matters ... https://www.theguardian.com/world/2020/apr/03/nightingale-emergency-coronavirus-hospital-london?CMP=Share_iOSApp_Other Nightingale emergency coronavirus hospital may not be needed as urgently as expected London’s intensive care units were expected to be overflowing at this point but are only three-quarters full

Although I would say, I have a degree of understanding for those slow to grasp it, as there has been a shameful, despicable, casualness from the government here and from the Liar In Chief Over The Water. I take no comfort from it, but history will look back at Johnson and Trump, especially Trump, as being complicit in an awful tragedy.

It isn’t over the top. Crucially many look no further than the end of their nose. Either through fear or ignorance. Reminds me of documentaries about the USA in the war, where their soldiers were dying in droves yet back in the US people were oblivious to it.

I don’t - don’t even know what it is as I don’t read the papers or twitter, but what I’ve said is what I’ve seen

I don’t enjoy generalising, but there does seem to be at least some evidence to suggest Brexit, Trump, Red States, Brazil’s Head Nutjob, Global Warming deniers,Johnson, and “ is it that bad” folk are often in one camp, ....whilst Remain, Science, EU politicians, Democrats, Epidemiologists, Greens are in another. I guess that should’nt be a surprise

It’s beyond belief isn’t it ?

Just a page back someone has. I was going to reply but I just can’t summon the energy. How any intelligent, thinking person, can think this is anything but catastrophic is beyond me. I wouldn’t care much, except those are the people who are going to make it almost impossible to deal with.

I must admit a combination of their “ efforts” so far, the nerve of Clubs wanting State support, and realising I’m not missing it is having the same effect on me. Not to mention every time I recall the toilets I appreciate that’s also a function of having real things to worry about, and that I may rediscover an enthusiasm, but there’s no doubt I’ll take a long hard look at whether I want to continue to spend 1500-2000 a year on it.

I’m a long time watcher of late night CNN for my news I find it way more adult and interesting than the pap we get served up here. In particular Anderson Cooper, Chris Cuomo, and Don Lemon. Chris Cuomo (brother is New York’s Governor) was tested positive a couple of days ago. He continues to do his show from his basement. It is gripping, informative, amusing, and sobering. I recommend watching it to anyone who wants to get a better human picture of what’s what. ( also watch his daily chats with his brother which are heartwarming). The key message ? As has been said often on here .. We must all hammer home to each other and our friends and family..... Its not the Flu. It’s not the death rates that are the biggest concern, it’s tens of thousands of very sick people all needing healthcare at the same time. And you can get it or give it through the air or from a surface without even knowing it.

It occurs to me there may be someone who would like to know what’s what with this Hospital Testing malarkey. (WARNING - I’m not a medical professional this is just stuff I’ve learnt myself in the last few weeks) So here I go.. This is a link to the Government guidance to Health professionals for the criteria re investigation and management of possible corona cases.... https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/wuhan-novel-coronavirus-initial-investigation-of-possible-cases/investigation-and-initial-clinical-management-of-possible-cases-of-wuhan-novel-coronavirus-wn-cov-infection#interim-definition-possible-cases So that’s the criteria for admission/ testing etc. Heres a link to the Form used in Hospitals which makes direct reference to that guidance https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/875209/COVID19_E28_form_V4_24-03-2020.pdf Heres a link to a BMJ article re guidelines discussed by Royal College Of Pathologists ( coz I can only find the article...I did read the original but can’t find it) https://jcp.bmj.com/content/jclinpath/early/2020/03/20/jclinpath-2020-206522.full.pdf#page4 Here’s the most relevant bit.... “These criteria ( ie the guidelines I’ve linked above) are the same when the patient is deceased with the exception that the timelines given in the guidance refer to the time prior death or onset of relevant symptoms before death where known (outlined in Box 1). If it is considered that COVID-19 may have been related to death by these criteria, the choice of either to perform a full postmortem or an examination is limited only to retrieving the samples required to verify COVID-19 infection.” Hence....Testing for the virus is not carried out on every death in hospital as a matter of course, and therefore the stats relate to where infection is known only.

You misunderstand. “Anyone who carries the virus at the time of death has that information listed on their death certificate.” Thats the comment in question.... the bit you’ve quoted is true to a point “ where a person dies with the virus in their body”....But..... Not everyone who dies in Hospital is tested for Coronavirus..... Much more importantly....Not everyone who dies is in a Hospital. ( for - one particularly galling - example residents of Care Homes receiving Hospital treatment for non- virus causes have been returned to Care Homes, without being tested, and have died having contracted the disease in hospital) Its not worth devoting much time to the debate.( I won’t anyway I’ve said my bit)...because.. ...Any debate about figures is fraught with danger. For many reasons. There is merit to the notion that in some cases death from the virus is replacing death from something else. But there’s cases where the “ something else” was treatable. There’s cases where the “ something else’s “ are turned away. This article is very informative as to some of the problems with the statistics. https://www.bbc.com/future/article/20200401-coronavirus-why-death-and-mortality-rates-differ The safest bet with the stats is to look at curves from many countries, each of whom compile in different ways, yet each of which correlate for the most part. And for anyone who IS debating the numbers, to always remember that the deaths are just a horrible fraction of the appalling true cost to human health. There are tens of thousands not dying but who are appallingly ill, who wouldn’t have otherwise been.

Just not true.

No. It’s bollocks. Im sick of seeing ill uninformed stuff posted as fact on here. The UK death stats most people refer to only include people tested for, and admitted to, Hospital with the virus, and who die there. They don’t include anyone who dies at home or in a Care Home for example - although Care Home stats are now being compiled and announced elsewhere, and on at least one occasion were later added to the Headline figure. You won’t be tested for the virus if you die in a car crash. Coroners are being swamped. The greater likelihood is that people dying due to the effect of virus are being missed as there are many existing conditions which cause the death.

Apologies if you already know about this and wanted his particular chart...... But just in case you weren’t aware......I use this and have done for over a month, it remains an accurate guide. https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ Lots of data. For an unscientific but good UK prediction I use Italy’s charts from 16 days prior to the date you are interested in.

Indeed it’s very straightforward. Agree re Monday - using a slight adaption of the Italy figures ( I merge them a bit with others in Europe) i would estimate is 55,000 cases and 850 deaths. Again, for those who are sceptical about the seriousness, “ cases” means, for the most part, people in Hospital. So the very ill. The number actually with the illness is unknown but could easily be 10, 20. 50 times that.

Guys I’m surprised at the daily shock at the death toll. It’s all very easily predictable, give or take. So the numbers shouldn’t really come as a surprise. Id have thought everyone knew what to expect by now. If you don’t, it’s likely somewhere up to 6,7,800 deaths a day for a month. And something like another 1,2,3000 seriously ill every day.

They are not right. Even the great Liar In Chief, Trump, said yesterday “ this is not the flu’, it’s vicious “ ( one of those instances where better late than never won’t cut it). The continuing level of denial and ignorance is frightening. I can stay at home for months, but it achieves very little if 20/30 % of the population are careless.

I wondered whether to mention it, but I have a one step removed connection to Nick Timothy, (for clarity, he doesn’t know me though, and I don’t know him, )the sacked T May advisor, and 100% echo that. He is behind everything they do.

Line 1 : apologies I didn’t make it clear....whilst what the guy has posted is literally correct, my point is it misses the point. ...contact and trace - I’m afraid drips and drabs in an ad hoc manner aren’t what I was referring to... ....Cummings is intimately involved in every Government decision in the same way Mandleson used to be. That’s clear from many many reports over the months. Nothing happens without his involvement. Additionally I have seen - weeks ago - various links between him and some of the behavioural experts. I also recall seeing a direct quote from a Cabinet Minister saying he had done a complete U Turn having originally been completely against Lockdown. ...this Government is full of people who reject expert advice, it’s their default position. Anyway, you have asserted your view, and I’ve given mine....I think that’s me all Cummingsed out

Worth repeating.

Incidentally, some of that STlLL hasnt happened.

I’ve read the thread and the Reports and it’s at best a Red Herring, at worst deliberately deceitful. The question isn’t about the long term lack of preparedness, or even the assessments made in early February. The scandal is that from early March it was crystal clear - crystal clear - what was coming, and what was needed. At that point there could have been : concerted efforts to acquire PPE concerted efforts to acquire Test kits, to create a testing program, to initiate locate and trace advice that those who were elderly or vulnerable should limit their movement and uneccessary contacts an huge advertising campaign on what was coming, on the fact that IN ADDITION to hand washing, surfaces and packaging needed diligence, and that the virus could be spread by those without symptoms, and through the air regardless of coughing, the cancellation of mass crowd gatherings like Cheltenham and football. the introduction of shopping limits, queuing markers, specified shopping times the coordination of care home capacity / transfer of Community Care staff to Home work a request for volunteers a request to friends and relatives of those in Care to either take their people home or volunteer to man centres the diversion of local government officers to essential tasks directions to certain industries to switch production to ventilators. None of that requires hindsight. It wasn’t done because of incompetence, ideology, economics and some barmy ideas from the PMs advisor.

I’m afraid that whilst it’s possible we may see limits on the exponential growth in a week or so,that’s very much only a small part of the picture Whilst it’s impossible to directly compare, it’s informative to look at us compared to Italy. Italy reached 6000 cases and 233 deaths on March 7th. UK reached approx 6000 cases and 235 deaths on March 23rd. Italy Locked Down fully on March 10th. At that time they had 10,000 serious cases and had had 631 deaths. They now (22 days later) have had over 100,000 cases and over 11,000 deaths. We locked down a couple of days earlier by comparison. March 23rd. Therefore it isn’t unreasonable to suggest that by mid April we could have 100,000 cases and 10,000+ deaths. Cases, and Deaths, are still rising significantly each day in Italy. The RATE of new cases is slowing, but there’s still around 4000 a day. We will have been fortunate if this stops killing significant numbers in this Country by the end of May.

It’s not stopping in two or three weeks !!!!