Discussed on here weeks ago - just like in every other aspect of this disaster we are inexplicably way ahead of all news outlets.
My wife is Deputy Manager of a Care Home.
Mercifully, from my very selfish point of view, she has several serious underlying health conditions which meant her boss barred her from going in. Never thought I’d be thankful for her illnesses. But in the last week before she stopped going ( which was around a month ago now) she had to make the necessary arrangements for what to do at the home over the coming weeks. The stuff she told me was horrific.
Many Care Homes have a mix of elderly, dementia, and other users. These people have all but been abandoned from the off.
When it comes to numbers, I posted ages ago that Care Home deaths weren’t included, but also that neither were all hospital deaths from Co-vid.......I posted a link which showed the need for a Post Mortem had been waived. As such, it’s only deaths in hospital where the patient tests positive. If they aren’t tested, they also don’t show up on the stats. Likewise deaths at home.
If you factor in that even countries with ( much better ) lockdowns can still expect a long period “ at plateau” ( an infected person on lockdown day could still be infecting people 2/3 weeks later, who in turn could still infect for a further 2/3 weeks) ( imagine that in Care Homes) I think your 17,000 is both conservative as of today, and will be dwarfed in the coming weeks.
There will be no returning to normal this year. A partial lifting of the lockdown will occur in certain sectors, but be tighter in others, as soon as the cases needing hospital are fewer than Capacity.....but anyone thinking that is anything other than an unavoidable and undesirable step into the unknown is fooling themselves.