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Relegation


Amo69

The Drop  

609 members have voted

  1. 1. Will Villa Go Down?

    • Yes
      238
    • No
      283
    • Unsure
      88


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QPR is a must not lose game for us.

I still get nervous as **** watching this Villa team. Nothing I see says to me that they really want this. I don't know if it's just me or others think it too but our players just seem so careless with the ball. They seem to almost habitually panic from 60 minutes onwards and just get deeper and deeper and invite the opposition onto us.

I was waiting for the inevitable late equaliser or winner for Reading today. Thankfully it didn't come. But, Reading are poor. How many other teams are going to let us off the hook so easily? I can't help but feel this team doesn't have what it takes to survive this battle. I know we have a quality attack but the rest, Guzan apart, leave a lot to be desired.

I hope they prove me wrong but with just 3 points from safety I cannot help but see us going down. I don't think they fully understand the amount of effort and care needed or required to get out of this. I hope the prove me wrong but every time I watch them it's like watching a spine chilling movie!

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As an addition to my previous post, of the remaining fixtures to be played, there are a number of them between those 7 teams, and those 7 teams against top 6 teams. For the most part, you'd expect everyone down the bottom to be beaten by the top 6 teams. It won't happen in every game, but it'll definitely be the case more often than not. That makes the bold games below the key ones, where the bottom teams play each other, since both of them cannot win those games, further reducing the likelihood of the safety mark being as high as 38 points...

 

 

Manchester City v Wigan
Aston Villa v Queens Park Rangers
Manchester United v Reading
Wigan v Newcastle United
Sunderland v Manchester United
Arsenal v Reading
Manchester City v Newcastle United
Southampton v Chelsea
Reading v Southampton
Manchester City v Wigan
Chelsea v Sunderland
Queens Park Rangers v Wigan
Newcastle United v Sunderland
Everton v Queens Park Rangers
Sunderland v Everton
Manchester United v Aston Villa
Aston Villa v Sunderland
Wigan v Tottenham
Reading v Queens Park Rangers
Queens Park Rangers v Arsenal
Tottenham v Southampton
Arsenal v Wigan
Aston Villa v Chelsea
Queens Park Rangers v Newcastle United
Reading v Manchester City
Sunderland v Southampton
Newcastle United v Arsenal
Tottenham v Sunderland
Wigan v Aston Villa
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I was getting on to ask if thinking Sunderland could get pulled into this was crazy. Turns out a lot of us are thinking the same way.

How great would that be?

 

Well, they've got Norwich (H), Man Utd (H), Chelsea (A), Newcastle (A), Everton (H), Villa (A), Stoke (H), Southampton (H) and Spurs (A) left

 

If they get to the Newcastle game having not gotten any wins, which is likely, they'll either have 30 or 31 points. Newcastle would certainly love to do them at St. James', and if they do, then they'll have some tricky games to get themselves safe, given that they'd likely have the same amount of points as Villa and Southampton, both of whom they'd play. If they conspired not to win either of them, they could well find themselves on 32-33 points, relying on getting a win from Everton, Stoke and Spurs. None of which you'd be 100% confident about

 

I think they're the most likely to get dragged into it, and they're realistically in trouble if they lost to Norwich next week, as we'd then be level on points

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Plenty more twists and turns to come just look at next weekends games :

Villa - QPR

Sunderland - Norwich

Wigan - Newcastle

ManUre - reading

 

Dream scenario there is Villa win, Norwich win, draw and Utd win.

 

That'd have it

 

14: Newcastle P29 Pts 31

15: Sunderland P30 Pts 30 

16: Villa P30 Pts 30

17: Southampton P29 Pts 28 (Playing Liverpool at home)

18: Wigan P29 Pts 25 (Game in hand vs. City)

19: Reading P30 Pts 23

20. QPR P30 Pts 23

Sunderland will beat Norwich at home next weekend

I wouldn't be completely sure about that. More likely to be a 1-1 draw if anything

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Yep i agree.. good analysis Pete. I have just looked at it in a different manner by studying everybody's remaining fixtures & trying to best guess the most likely result allowing for the odd freak one here & there. Started this 6 games ago & so far it seems quite close to the mark. I have this as the most likely points tallies

 

Newcastle...46 pts (10 to go)

West Ham...44 pts (10 to go)

Southampton.42 pts (9 to go)

Sunderland 40 pts  (9 to go) 

Norwich.......40 pts (9 to go)

Villa.............37 pts (9 to go)

Wigan..........36 pts (10 to go)

QPR............35 pts (9 to go)

Reading.......32 pts (9 to go)

 

Thats if we beat QPR which is a huge "if".

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Just need to take care of our own games and let the others **** it up.

Must beat QPR.

That's it exactly. If we win our games against the other teams in the bottom 7 we'll be safe on 36 points, all the while ensuring the maximum points QPR, Sunderland and Wigan can get is reduced by 3 apiece. Simple as that

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Yep i agree.. good analysis Pete. I have just looked at it in a different manner by studying everybody's remaining fixtures & trying to best guess the most likely result allowing for the odd freak one here & there. Started this 6 games ago & so far it seems quite close to the mark. I have this as the most likely points tallies

 

Newcastle...46 pts (10 to go)

West Ham...44 pts (10 to go)

Southampton.42 pts (9 to go)

Sunderland 40 pts  (9 to go) 

Norwich.......40 pts (9 to go)

Villa.............37 pts (9 to go)

Wigan..........36 pts (10 to go)

QPR............35 pts (9 to go)

Reading.......32 pts (9 to go)

 

Thats if we beat QPR which is a huge "if".

I think you're massively overestimating Newcastle, Southampton and Sunderland there. If we beat QPR next week I'll fancy us to finish ahead of them tbh

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Yep i agree.. good analysis Pete. I have just looked at it in a different manner by studying everybody's remaining fixtures & trying to best guess the most likely result allowing for the odd freak one here & there. Started this 6 games ago & so far it seems quite close to the mark. I have this as the most likely points tallies

 

Newcastle...46 pts (10 to go)

West Ham...44 pts (10 to go)

Southampton.42 pts (9 to go)

Sunderland 40 pts  (9 to go) 

Norwich.......40 pts (9 to go)

Villa.............37 pts (9 to go)

Wigan..........36 pts (10 to go)

QPR............35 pts (9 to go)

Reading.......32 pts (9 to go)

 

Thats if we beat QPR which is a huge "if".

I think you're massively overestimating Newcastle, Southampton and Sunderland there. If we beat QPR next week I'll fancy us to finish ahead of them tbh

 

I am indeed trying to err on the side of caution a touch but even that only has those teams winning as follows:

 

Newcastle

Stoke (h) W

Fulham (h) W

Sunderland (h) W

 

Plus various draws.

 

Southampton

West Ham (h) W

WBA (h) W

Stoke (h)W

 

Plus various draws

 

Sunderland

Norwich (h) W

Everton (h) W (just a hunch? Mon seems to get results against Everton)

Stoke (h) W

 

Plus a couple of draws

 

Those are the key games for those clubs.. winnable home games, although looking at it i agree i have maybe over estimated Sunderland by a point or two.

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