Predictions and general chat

[Tegis]

In HD and good quality?

[StefanAVFC]

Not usually HD but quality is good enough that I'm not pulling my hair out

[Tegis]

Those are my last resort. I've gotten greedy qualitywise. And karmapoints for paying after all the years of streaming is not a bad thing I guess.

[leviramsey]

Jags at Broncos could well set the all time record for biggest point spread in Vegas, 28 points.

[BerniesElbow]

_Wow.

_{Cleveland in first place. Nice.}

[AVFCforever1991]

_Wow.

_{Cleveland in first place. Nice.}

 

Nope, still second

[leviramsey]

Never mind... old tweet.

Edited October 1, 2013 by leviramsey

[leviramsey]

AFCE: 5-1 against NFC (South)

AFCN: 2-3 against NFC (North)

AFCS: 1-2 against NFC (West)

AFCW: 7-1 against NFC (East)

AFC: 15-7 against NFC

[kurtsimonw]

and yet the top end of the NFC is massively superior to the top end of the AFC, in my opinion.

[AVFCforever1991]

Rivers is killing it this year..

[leviramsey]

and yet the top end of the NFC is massively superior to the top end of the AFC, in my opinion.

How do you figure?

We'll use the current standings with tiebreakers applied

AFC1 vs. NFC1: Patriots vs. Saints ????

AFC2 vs. NFC2: Broncos vs. Seahawks ????

AFC3 vs. NFC3: Colts vs. Lions ????

AFC4 vs. NFC4: Ravens vs. Cowboys ????

AFC5 vs. NFC5: Chiefs vs. Bears ????

AFC6 vs. NFC6: Dolphins vs. 49ers ????

AFC7 vs. NFC7: Titans vs. Cardinals ????

AFC8 vs. NFC8: Texans vs. Packers ????

And for the bottom end

AFC9 vs. NFC9: Browns vs. Panthers ????

AFC10 vs. NFC10: Bengals vs. Eagles ????

AFC11 vs. NFC11: Jets vs. Falcons ????

AFC12 vs. NFC12: Bills vs. Rams ????

AFC13 vs. NFC13: Chargers vs. Vikings ????

AFC14 vs. NFC14: Redskins beat Raiders

AFC15 vs. NFC15: Steelers vs. Bucs ????

AFC16 vs. NFC16: Jaguars vs. Giants ????

[leviramsey]

Patriots/Saints is a close one, as is Broncos/Seahawks

I'd take the Colts over the Lions if pushed

Probably take the Ravens over the Cowboys

Chiefs/Bears is a hard pick

Probably take the 49ers, but I have this niggling suspicion that Kaepernick's only got read option in his arsenal (unlike Wilson) and I think defensive coordinators (who aren't named Fewell ) have figured that out

Titans/Cardinals is close, but I think if Palmer -> Fitzgerald is clicking, the Cardinals are a tough out

Probably take the Packers over the Texans

[kurtsimonw]

Patriots/Saints is a close one

If you're being biased.

 

As for Rivers, he's just a poor mans Peyton, born loser.

[leviramsey]

New DVOA ratings... Jaguars are the worst team going back to at least 1989.

Peyton has only barely beaten the Broncos record for passing yards through 4 games, previously held by Kyle Orton (who had 1,419 yards through 4 games in 2010)

As long as we're looking at teams that rank among the best and worst through four weeks, let's look at one more table. We all know the Giants have no running game this year, their offensive line is a mess, and the defense isn't playing well. You may not know that the special teams have been even worse than the offense or defense. The biggest issue is giving up two punt returns for touchdowns, but even if we remove those two returns, the Giants' average of 9.5 yards allowed on ten other returns would rank 23rd in the NFL. In addition, Josh Brown has missed two makeable field goals (38 and 44 yards), and Giants punt returners have muffed two punts. As a result, the Giants end up with the second-worst special teams we've ever tracked through four weeks.

Applying opponent adjustments this week means we can get our first good look at schedule strength. As you might expect this early in the season, the best teams come out with the easiest schedules and the worst teams with the hardest schedules. It is hard to tell at this point whether Kansas City is really this good, and that's why opponents like the Eagles and Giants have struggled, or whether the Eagles and Giants are awful and so Kansas City looks better than it truly is. (This is kind of kooky, but even though Denver has blown away the rest of the NFL this year, their playoff odds actually dropped by 0.2 percent this week because the Chiefs went to 4-0 and rank third overall.) However, it is interesting to note a pack of teams near the bottom of the DVOA rankings who have played easier than normal schedules so far. Washington, Oakland, and St. Louis rank between 28th and 30th in DVOA with schedules ranking between 21st and 26th.

We also can start to get a good idea of future schedules at this point. The Patriots may have started 4-0, but things are going to get a lot harder. Not only did they just lose their best defensive player -- you can argue for Aqib Talib, but I'll still say Vince Wilfork -- but they have the league's hardest remaining schedule. The issue is less that they have a lot of hard games left, and more that they have no "gimmes." The worst teams still on New England's schedule are the AFC North teams other than Cincinnati, which currently rank 23rd, 24th, and 25th. The Chiefs may look good now, but they've had the league's easiest schedule so far and rank third going forward. Meanwhile, if you are looking to figure out who is going to win the NFC East, be aware the Eagles come out with the easiest remaining schedule out of all 32 teams, although Dallas is only 24th. There's a pretty good chance the NFC ends up with two wild cards with double-digit wins, because Seattle, San Francisco, Green Bay, Chicago, and Detroit all rank among the seven easiest remaining schedules.

When comparing DVOA and VOA, also remember that the difference isn't entirely based on schedule strength; that difference also accounts for fumble recovery luck and the difference between special teams with (DVOA) and without (VOA) weather and altitude adjustments. Tennessee so far this year has recovered three of their own four fumbles on offense, and all four opponent fumbles on defense. On the other hand, the Steelers have lost five of their seven fumbles, and haven't recovered any of the three fumbles they've forced on defense.

1. Broncos

2. Seahawks

3. Chiefs

4. Saints

5. Colts

6. Panthers

7. Patriots

8. Titans

9. Packers

10. Bills

11. Bears

12. Chargers

13. Lions

14. Falcons

15. Bengals

16. Cowboys

5 easiest schedules played

1. Chiefs (NFC East bar Redskins + Jaguars)

2. Colts

3. Broncos

4. Seahawks

5. Cowboys

5 hardest schedules played

1. Giants

2. Eagles

3. Jaguars

4. Ravens

5. Texans

5 easiest remaining schedules

1. Eagles

2. Seahawks

3. Texans

4. Bears

5. Lions

5 hardest remaining schedules

1. Patriots

2. Bucs

3. Chiefs

4. Falcons

5. Saints

(that said, the schedule rankings are really influenced by how terrible the Jaguars are...)

[leviramsey]

CBS makes some changes for their week 6 commentary teams...

Bill Cowher will join Nantz and Simms for the Steelers/Jets game

Shannon Sharpe will join Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts for the Broncos/Jaguars game

Boomer Esiason will join Kevin Harlan and Solomon Wilcots for the Bengals/Bills game

[Tegis]

Peyton has only barely beaten the Broncos record for passing yards through 4 games, previously held by Kyle Orton (who had 1,419 yards through 4 games in 2010)

 

 

  It was a good start no doubt that year, but yikes

 

CBS makes some changes for their week 6 commentary teams...

Shannon Sharpe will join Ian Eagle and Dan Fouts for the Broncos/Jaguars game

 

  Unmissable

[leviramsey]

Superb Owl chances

Broncos: 28%

Seahawks: 24%

Saints: 11%

Patriots: 10%

Packers: 5%

Chiefs: 4%

Panthers, Colts: 3%

Bears, Lions, Bengals: 2%

Texans, Titans, 49ers, Ravens, Cowboys, Dolphins: 1%

[AVFCforever1991]

Eugene Monroe is officially a Raven..

Edited October 3, 2013 by AVFCforever1991

[Tegis]

Josh Freeman released by the Buccs

[BerniesElbow]

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=XIUsZbJuZCs

 

Go Browns! BBQ the Beefalo!