kkr Posted August 24, 2013 Share Posted August 24, 2013 So it's banned, unless you've a reason in which case it's not banned. That's a load of balls if you ask me. If it's allowed for one player it should be allowed for all of them. Surely if they take player safety seriously, then anyone who wants the mask should just say they are scared of potential neck injuries like Tuck and eye injuries like Canty and get to keep it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted August 27, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted August 27, 2013 Something tells me ze NFL police would need a better excuse zan zat! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerniesElbow Posted August 29, 2013 Share Posted August 29, 2013 Browns v. Bears at 8pm EST tonight. 90% of Browns starters will not play. I am curious to see how Cleveland native Brian Hoyer will play at QB since the other guy (Jason Campbell, right?) and Weeden arent playing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted August 30, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted August 30, 2013 T-6 now. Where we'll see a repeat of the 2012 result in M&T Bank Stadium. Yeahhhhhhh. All calm and relaxed there Dante? NFL is almost back baby 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 2, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 2, 2013 My crude preseason power rankings, organized by the division. The rankings are based on my power ratings (weighted double), offense and defense ratings (each singly), and offense rating-defense rating (weighted double). Lower is better (6 is the best possible, 192 is the worst possible)AFC EastPatriots: 31Dolphins: 91Bills: 104Jets: 173AFC NorthBengals: 18Ravens: 84Browns: 136Steelers: 145AFC SouthTexans: 90Colts: 117Titans: 148Jaguars: 188AFC WestBroncos: 53Chiefs: 132Chargers: 148Raiders: 185AFC PlayoffsBroncos def DolphinsRavens def TexansBengals def RavensPatriots def BroncosBengals def PatriotsNFC EastRedskins: 19Cowboys: 59Giants: 76Eagles: 165NFC NorthBears: 38Packers: 48Lions: 95Vikings: 123NFC SouthPanthers: 49Falcons: 62Saints: 121Bucs: 180NFC WestSeahawks: 649ers: 25Cardinals: 102Rams: 132NFC PlayoffsBears def Packers49ers def PanthersSeahawks def 49ersRedskins def BearsSeahawks def RedskinsSuper Bowl XLVIIISeahawks def Bengals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StefanAVFC Posted September 4, 2013 Share Posted September 4, 2013 If I could like your post a million times I would Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 6, 2013 Bets for the season from Grantland's Bill Barnwell* Broncos to miss the playoffs: risk $20 to win $135I think the Broncos are going to make the playoffs; in fact, I picked them as my AFC representative in the Super Bowl, as many others surely have. Last night, they made mincemeat of last year's Super Bowl winner, producing a dominant second half while blowing out the Ravens. So why bet on them not to make the playoffs? Because the odds are nice! A line of +675 implies that the Broncos will make the playoffs 87.1 percent of the time. That seemed a little high to me in that moment, but after watching them last night, this already feels like money I might as well have set ablaze. Great start!* Bucs over 7.5 wins: risk $200 to win $148.15* Bucs to make the playoffs: risk $30 to win $69* Bucs to win the NFC South: risk $25 to win $200* Bucs to win the Super Bowl: risk $20 to win $1200If you've listened to the preview podcasts, you know that Mays and I are very high on the Buccaneers. The betting market shares a little bit of our enthusiasm for an improved team, but it's not on board for much more than an 8-8 or 9-7 season. Those odds to win the NFC South and win the Super Bowl are pretty generous; they're tied with the 24th-best odds in the league to win the Super Bowl, and while the Buccaneers would face a tougher path to make it to the Super Bowl than most teams, they're considerably better than the 24th-best team in the league. And while 60-1 is a pretty big long shot, there would also be some value in hedging this bet and locking in a smaller victory if the Buccaneers were to make it as far as the NFC Championship Game.The odds on divisional bets really differed drastically from book to book. Most of the bets I made on division champions were at the Wynn, which gave out much more generous odds than, say, the books owned by Harrah's. While the Raiders were 28-1 to win the AFC West at one book and 25-1 at another, Harrah's had the Raiders at 8-1. Obviously, shopping around is important.* Chiefs over 7.5 wins: risk $250 to win $151.52* Chiefs to make playoffs: risk $30 to win $66That 7.5-win line was actually a disappointment to me. Again, if you've listened to the podcast, you know that I'm also very high on the Chiefs in 2013, thanks to a number of factors, notably including superior coaching and a massive upgrade at quarterback. To me, in a weak division with an excellent core of talent, they're a 10-win team. With that in mind, knowing the books had been hit with plenty of action on the over 7.5-win line, I was hoping somebody would offer the Chiefs at eight wins so I could take the over on that, probably at somewhere around even money. Instead, I had to settle for the massive amount of juice.* Colts under 8.5 wins: risk $100 to win $83.33Consider this a lesson learned from last year's bet on the 49ers. I'm confident that the Colts will regress toward the mean in terms of luck and not win 11 games, as they did a year ago, just as I was confident the Niners wouldn't win 13 games in 2012. They didn't, of course, but they also didn't drop by all that much; San Francisco still won 11 games, which beat their posted total of 10 wins, so I lost my under bets there.In that case, what I failed to properly account for was that the regression was already priced into the line. The posted win total for the 49ers was a full three wins below their record from the previous year. I had written that I expected the Niners to finish 9-7, which didn't leave much margin for error in terms of my bet. I don't regret writing that the Niners would regress — after all, they did — but the bet should have been only a small play for me.Here, I'm keeping that in mind. I think the two most plausible records for the Colts are 8-8 and 7-9, both of which would win the bet, but I also think that 9-7 and 10-6 are significant enough possibilities that it's only a moderate play for me.* Eagles to win NFC East: risk $20 to win $120One of a number of long-shot bets on divisional winners. I think each team in the NFC East has a minimum 20 percent chance of winning the division, and this line prices the Eagles in at a 14.3 percent chance of claiming the trophy. I won't pretend it's likely, but the 5-11 Redskins weren't exactly favorites to win this division last year, either.* Falcons to miss playoffs: risk $50 to win $67.50There was plenty of action in town on Atlanta finishing under 10 wins, which was at -165 or so in some books, so why would its odds of missing the playoffs be so high? It could win nine games and make the playoffs, I suppose, but it seems like there's some value here, especially if the new-look defense is as ponderous as I'm concerned it might be.* Jaguars over 4.5 wins: risk $100 to win $62.50* Jaguars to win AFC South: risk $10 to win $300I don't have super-high hopes for the Jaguars, if I'm being frank. But five wins in the AFC South? That's very feasible. The Jags were 2-14 a year ago, but they underperformed their Pythagorean Expectation by 1.4 wins and should have better coaching on both sides of the ball this year. The average team with two wins or worse in a given season has won an average of six games the following year, with 17 of the 24 previous examples winning five or more. That seems relatively safe, and in fact, most books around town have the Jaguars posted at five wins, not the 4.5-win figure.As for the AFC South? I'll take a flier on just about anybody to win a division at 30-to-1. Of course, I don't think they're going to win the division very frequently, but if I think the Colts will decline and the Titans will be a bad team, the division should be pretty wide-open. If the Texans were to suffer from some season-ending injury to a player like J.J. Watt or Matt Schaub, and the Jaguars get their running game going with Denard Robinson and Maurice Jones-Drew … stranger things have happened. One season after finishing 1-15, the Dolphins won the 2008 AFC East under equally strange circumstances. At 30-to-1, there's some value in this bet.* Lions over 8 wins: risk $250 to win $185.19* Lions to make playoffs: risk $40 to win $76I wasn't comfortable betting on the Lions to win the NFC North with Aaron Rodgers around, but I do feel pretty good that they can post a winning record and likely make it into the playoffs at 10-6. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 6, 2013 The FootballOutsiders season projections Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted September 6, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted September 6, 2013 I still think those projections under-estimate the swing in power that has happened with Welker moving from New England to Denver. If we can go 6-0 or even 5-1 and get Von Miller back in the side we'll be home all the way to New Jyzey. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 6, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 6, 2013 (edited) I have no particular point, I just find this interesting.Elite QBs: Brady, Brees, Manning, RogersYoung possibly Elite QBs: Griffin III, Kaepernick, Newton, RussellGood, maybe great but not Elite: Dalton, Flacco, Roethlisberger, SchaubRoethlisberger in my eyes is always a couple ticks away from being elite. He's definitely great, to me. Flacco...well, he won a superbowl and he picked on Champ Bailey to do it. Schaub and Dalton are both competent, at least.It says a lot about the power of an elite quarterback. The 4 young guns in there don't have enough games under their belts to be elite yet (and Kaepernick is the farthest from the title) but I'd be shocked if history doesn't record 2, maybe even 3 of them as being elite in 10 years.Hard to disagree with that list. Next tier down is "serviceable in a decent scheme", with Rivers, Stafford, Cutler, Romo, Palmer, Vick.Not as sure where to put Luck.EDIT: I forgot to list Ryan in the serviceable category. Edited September 6, 2013 by leviramsey Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted September 6, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted September 6, 2013 Griffin III needs to make sure it's his arm and not his legs that make him stand out otherwise he could eventually fall into the same category as Vick. It'll be interesting to see how injury treats him. So in that sense I think he still has the potential danger to fall rather than to rise out of that category. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted September 7, 2013 Share Posted September 7, 2013 I don't think Cam will be even close to being "elite" personally. Dalton, Flacco and Schaub in there and not Eli. Eli and Ben are leagues ahead of those. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 7, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 7, 2013 The list was, (it wasn't made clear, and it wasn't until a subsequent comment cleared it up) the projected 12 playoff QBs.Why wouldn't you think that "Manning" referred to Eli? I'd certainly take Eli in a tough spot over Peyton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
villa4europe Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 the news that no one wanted to hear - Bruno Mars confirmed for the superbowl HT show how the **** did he win that ticket? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted September 8, 2013 Share Posted September 8, 2013 Why wouldn't you think that "Manning" referred to Eli? I'd certainly take Eli in a tough spot over Peyton. I was tempted to say that and ask why Peyton's not listed! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted September 10, 2013 VT Supporter Share Posted September 10, 2013 From TMQ today:Since the playoffs started in January, 2012, the Packers are 0-5 in games against the Giants and 49ers but 12-3 against the rest of the league. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
KennyPowers Posted September 10, 2013 Share Posted September 10, 2013 (edited) If anyone doesn't check Grantland the Bad Quarterback League is always good for a laugh on a Tuesday. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/73952/bad-quarterback-league-week-1-blaines-world-party-time Philip Rivers' passer rating when Chargers were up 28-7 with 10:46 left in 3rd quarter was 134.8 ... Thereafter, it was 0. Zero. Last week we said no player in the NFL inspires less confidence than Blaine Gabbert. But then he went and exceeded everything on Sunday. Two interceptions, including a pick-six (+30), no touchdowns (+10), less than 150 yards passing (+12), and a 46 percent completion percentage (+5). The Jaguars offense also failed to score a single point and made the Chiefs defense look like the '86 Bears. And Gabbert was sacked six times. He finished with a QB rating of 30.8, which actually seems a little high. Lol. Thank you for coaching is also normally pretty good but not that interesting this week. http://www.grantland.com/blog/the-triangle/post/_/id/74042/thank-you-for-not-coaching-the-week-in-ahem-curious-strategic-sideline-decisions Edited September 10, 2013 by KennyPowers Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 From TMQ today: Since the playoffs started in January, 2012, the Packers are 0-5 in games against the Giants and 49ers but 12-3 against the rest of the league. We have them in a few weeks so long may that continue! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
packoman Posted September 12, 2013 Share Posted September 12, 2013 Every year since 2009, the team that plays Philadelphia in the Eagles' home opener has gone on to win the Super Bowl that season. Something tells me that won't be happening this year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BOF Posted September 12, 2013 Author Moderator Share Posted September 12, 2013 Every year since 2009, the team that plays Philadelphia in the Eagles' home opener has gone on to win the Super Bowl that season. Something tells me that won't be happening this year.Wow! Cool stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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