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Takeover parts 1 & 2


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Up to the fact that probably if Ellis dies the share value will plummet and Petchey will lose a lot of money and therefore asking them to take the offer.

I hope. Because time is not on Ellis' side.

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Do we know that Petchey has met with the board members?

ive read it loads of times that petchy was willing to sell up when they first come in with a bid.

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1) Why would the share price plummet if cuddly croaked? He is the one holding the club back, not the one holding the club together.

2) Any quotes from petchey regarding his willingness to sell? Petchey is interested in making money. If he can sell for a big profit he will, if he can take control of a premiership club for peanuts he will.

quack.

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1) Why would the share price plummet if cuddly croaked? He is the one holding the club back, not the one holding the club together.

2) Any quotes from petchey regarding his willingness to sell? Petchey is interested in making money. If he can sell for a big profit he will, if he can take control of a premiership club for peanuts he will.

quack.

i think Ali might have meant asking price. should elies meet his maker, i believe whoever wil then inherit his shares would want as quick and smooth as sale of them as possible.

hence they'd take a lower price to get rid quickly. Once sold, i'd expect the share price to increase somewhat .....

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1) Why would the share price plummet if cuddly croaked? He is the one holding the club back, not the one holding the club together.

2) Any quotes from petchey regarding his willingness to sell? Petchey is interested in making money. If he can sell for a big profit he will, if he can take control of a premiership club for peanuts he will.

quack.

i think Ali might have meant asking price. should elies meet his maker, i believe whoever wil then inherit his shares would want as quick and smooth as sale of them as possible.

hence they'd take a lower price to get rid quickly. Once sold, i'd expect the share price to increase somewhat .....

So if you happened to be sitting on 20% of the shares that you bought for buttons, wouldn't it make sense to snap up the other 80% that are suddenly worth buttons following our great leaders demise, flog off some land* to pay off the short term debts and then package it up and sell at a nice profit to some mysterious sheikh/russkie/cocaine dealer/property developer etc etc. When you think about it, that might even be a more profitable route than selling your 20% at only £4.80 a share.

quack.

*to some completely unrelated company at a completely fair market price of course.

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There is a suggestion, not even a rumour, that Petchey is up to something having had meetings with the Villa board members recently.

Most likely completely unrelated

No idea and neither had anyone else I gathered

Malcolm? Are you talking to yourself?

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1) Why would the share price plummet if cuddly croaked? He is the one holding the club back, not the one holding the club together.

2) Any quotes from petchey regarding his willingness to sell? Petchey is interested in making money. If he can sell for a big profit he will, if he can take control of a premiership club for peanuts he will.

quack.

i think Ali might have meant asking price. should elies meet his maker, i believe whoever wil then inherit his shares would want as quick and smooth as sale of them as possible.

hence they'd take a lower price to get rid quickly. Once sold, i'd expect the share price to increase somewhat .....

So if you happened to be sitting on 20% of the shares that you bought for buttons, wouldn't it make sense to snap up the other 80% that are suddenly worth buttons following our great leaders demise, flog off some land* to pay off the short term debts and then package it up and sell at a nice profit to some mysterious sheikh/russkie/cocaine dealer/property developer etc etc. When you think about it, that might even be a more profitable route than selling your 20% at only £4.80 a share.

quack.

*to some completely unrelated company at a completely fair market price of course.

maybe Gringo. But for petchey, an unneccessary gamble IMO.

if he sold now he'd still be making a decent profit anyway. To hang on until elies leaves this world (arguably he did that a long time ago) and then attempt to but all shares at a reduced price and then sell at an inflated one is a big gamble IMO.

Investors could just as easily by Elies shares once he's gone as Petchey could. and then offer peanuts for Petchey's allocation.

orm Petchey could then buy all the shares and find no takers for AVFC at the price he wants. He'd be lumbered. If he ran us into the ground to make money and then tried to sell us, the proposition would be even less tempting for bidders. AVFC is worth less if Petchey has sold the land!

so i can see Petchey wanting a sale sooner rather than later. there's more certainty now than when Elies leaves us.

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Well the one thing that has caught my attention is that the bar on Ranson not being able to make a bid has passed as of yesterday!!, So if he can put together another group then i'd think he'd be in with a decent chance as he wouldn't be dealing with Ellis this time around and at least he actully has made a bid so we knew he was serious!!,

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1) Why would the share price plummet if cuddly croaked? He is the one holding the club back, not the one holding the club together.

2) Any quotes from petchey regarding his willingness to sell? Petchey is interested in making money. If he can sell for a big profit he will, if he can take control of a premiership club for peanuts he will.

quack.

i think Ali might have meant asking price. should elies meet his maker, i believe whoever wil then inherit his shares would want as quick and smooth as sale of them as possible.

hence they'd take a lower price to get rid quickly. Once sold, i'd expect the share price to increase somewhat .....

So if you happened to be sitting on 20% of the shares that you bought for buttons, wouldn't it make sense to snap up the other 80% that are suddenly worth buttons following our great leaders demise, flog off some land* to pay off the short term debts and then package it up and sell at a nice profit to some mysterious sheikh/russkie/cocaine dealer/property developer etc etc. When you think about it, that might even be a more profitable route than selling your 20% at only £4.80 a share.

quack.

*to some completely unrelated company at a completely fair market price of course.

maybe Gringo. But for petchey, an unneccessary gamble IMO.

if he sold now he'd still be making a decent profit anyway. To hang on until elies leaves this world (arguably he did that a long time ago) and then attempt to but all shares at a reduced price and then sell at an inflated one is a big gamble IMO.

Investors could just as easily by Elies shares once he's gone as Petchey could. and then offer peanuts for Petchey's allocation.

orm Petchey could then buy all the shares and find no takers for AVFC at the price he wants. He'd be lumbered. If he ran us into the ground to make money and then tried to sell us, the proposition would be even less tempting for bidders. AVFC is worth less if Petchey has sold the land!

so i can see Petchey wanting a sale sooner rather than later. there's more certainty now than when Elies leaves us.

Petchey gambled three years ago when he started buying. He picked up 20% of the club for about £4m. So whatever happens, he isnt going to lose, its a case of how he plays his hand.

I'm sure he will be in pole position to make Heidi a very merry widow. He has a headstart on any other 'investor' and would be clear favourite if he decided to race. You never know, it might already be a done deal ;) But say it isn't and heidi sold up to bill and ben for £x per share. Bill and ben would then be forced to extend that offer to the rest of the shareholders. JP could make a counter offer of £x+10%. Bill and Ben would then have to offer more or sell up to JP for a quick 10% profit. If they offer more, JP counter offers until he achieves the price he wants. I really don't see any plausible turn of events where JP is going to lose any money.

And the type of bidders who would be put off by the dissappearance of the land are the sort of buyers we should be wary of. Not that we have any influence of course

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this is simple, the market price of the club is £46m or so, Ellis will sell at £64m or so a mark up of around 80%.

Petchey is not interested one bit in taking assets but getting the max return from his shares to use for his foundation.

When Ellis dies the people who will look after his shares are likely to sell ASAP and probably at teh market rate leaving Petchey with a loss in his mind of nearly £4m.

He wants Ellis or someone to bid at £64m and would it surprise anyone he was behind the moves to bring in rothschilds.

Because he knows the club has to be sold before Ellis dies to make max. profit.

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would it surprise anyone he was behind the moves to bring in rothschilds.

Was he? The more times you say it, the more you believe it hey?

Because he knows the club has to be sold before Ellis dies to make max. profit.

Nope. That is one way to realise his gains, probably the simplest. A smart business man will know that there is more than one way to skin a goat. And a crook knows even more ways.

quack.

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There are 4 ways of valuing a company

1. Discounted future cash flows - the best and prefered method

2. Net assets

3. Share price based on PE ratios

4. Dividend pricing method

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and a fifth one richard,

what a buyer is prepared to pay for one

And in this case the most important one. Football clubs do not behave or perform financially as other companies do.

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