Polish General Election 2023/10/15

[StefanAVFC]

Not really as important for the UK as we're out of the EU now, but these elections are hailed as one of the most important in Europe for a while.

The current government are looking for a 3rd term, they're right-wing religious conservatives with pretty left wing economic policies, who are constantly at war with the EU, on the topics of migration and the rule of law. Another win for them would risk a Pol-exit in future. The PM is Morawiecki but everyone knows Poland is run by Jaroslaw Kaczynski. This guy, is a lunatic. He's especially lost his mind since his twin brother (the President at the time) died in a plane crash.

A win for them would keep the Hungary/Poland veto alliance intact, meaning both states can freely challenge the EU, and be supported by the other. Although the recent elections in Slovakia may also help with this.

The above does a good job, but on the ground it's a complete mess.

The two main parties detest each other, calling each other evil and wanting to destroy Poland.

PiS have also attached a meaningless referendum to the election to order to mobilize their base. They also have complete control of the Polish BBC, with it churning out 24/7 government propaganda whilst ignoring important news that may reflect badly on it (this week 2 generals resigned, criticizing the government, the national broadcaster didn't even cover it)

Neither main parties look like getting a majority. The current government are way short of majority in polling, and undecided's trend away from them.

The minor parties may also be kingmakers with TD (Trzecia Droga - 3rd way / centre-right populist), Lewica (Left / centre-left) and Konfereracja (Confederation (yes named after the US thing) / far-right faux-libertarians) all polling about 8%-12%

Good article in NY Times here: 

Opinion | The Stakes in Poland’s Election Are Very High - The New York Times (nytimes.com)

Quote

“Of all the arts, the most important for us is the cinema,” Vladimir Lenin supposedly said. It’s not often that his words feel apt in Poland, a post-Communist country once traumatized by Soviet propaganda. But in recent weeks, as the country has been convulsed by controversy centered on a film, Lenin’s declaration has acquired a surprising resonance.

“Green Border,” by the Oscar-nominated director Agnieszka Holland, tells the story of the tragedy of migrants and those helping them at the Polish-Belarusian border. Awarded the special jury prize at the Venice Film Festival, it is refined, thought-provoking and full of nuance — exactly the opposite of politics in Poland today.

The ruling Law and Justice party, threatened by Ms. Holland’s humanitarian approach, has gone on the attack. Government officials called the film “anti-Polish” and the prime minister, Mateusz Morawiecki, labeled it “a collection of blatant lies.” The justice minister even went so far as to compare the film to Nazi propaganda.

The government is jumpy for a reason: On Sunday, Poland goes to the polls. The stakes are high. After eight years of rule by the Law and Justice party, in which the right-wing government has remade the country’s institutions in its image, the election is perhaps the most important since the democratic breakthrough in 1989.

 

Edited October 12, 2023 by StefanAVFC

[choffer]

Will be watching this with interest. I know I mentioned it at the time but I was in Krakow earlier this year and there were nationwide protests that weekend against the current administration. What I found fascinating was that among the protesters, the majority of what I saw were in their 40s and 50s. Later that day we met some friends of friends who were 20s and 30s and they were much more aligned with the Government. Very limited sample size, obviously but I'd be interested to hear if I've drawn a false equivalence here. 

Either way, Europe can well do without inching further to the right. Hoping for a positive outcome for Poland this weekend.

[StefanAVFC]

19 minutes ago, choffer said:

Will be watching this with interest. I know I mentioned it at the time but I was in Krakow earlier this year and there were nationwide protests that weekend against the current administration. What I found fascinating was that among the protesters, the majority of what I saw were in their 40s and 50s. Later that day we met some friends of friends who were 20s and 30s and they were much more aligned with the Government. Very limited sample size, obviously but I'd be interested to hear if I've drawn a false equivalence here. 

Either way, Europe can well do without inching further to the right. Hoping for a positive outcome for Poland this weekend.

Young men have been selectively targeted by one of the leaders of the far-right party. He's very popular on tiktok, with his anti-tax, anti-government videos.

[StefanAVFC]

 

Towns up to 20,000 population have these incentives to boost turnout (as rural areas vote for the ruling party) from the government.

250,000 zloty (48,000 pounds) to sports clubs/fire stations if 60% of turnout is achieved.

1 million (190,000 pounds) for the town budget with the highest turnout for both 

Edited October 12, 2023 by StefanAVFC

[StefanAVFC]

 

Former PM

"Close your eyes, grit your teeth and vote for PiS'

It isn't 'yes we can' is it?

[StefanAVFC]

Election Silence has started until the end of the voting

This is how the Polish BBC ended it (thread)

 

Edited October 14, 2023 by StefanAVFC

[StefanAVFC]

Im surprised that I haven’t seen @Mic09 here yet 

[Rds1983]

41 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Im surprised that I haven’t seen @Mic09 here yet 

Hang on. I thought this was a private thread just for you? Can anyone post?

[Mic09]

31 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Im surprised that I haven’t seen @Mic09 here yet 

I'm hiding away from the subject. I try to avoid it as much as possible. It's a war like subject in all polish homes. But since you asked, here is my two pence.

Firstly, for all you English readers, it's not first past the post, vote the MP type of a deal. Poland is very party heavy in its election system. Individual MPs are not accountable to their constituents in a way we have in the UK. Essentially, you vote for a party who themselves make up the election lists. This disclaimer might clarify the below. 

I am probably the furthest away politically you can possibly imagine from PIS. I despise everything they stand for. Personally, I am of a libertarian mind, both when it comes to personal freedoms and the wider economy. And they have made Poland a fiscal and PR tragedy of the last 8 years. 

I would never sign under Konferedacja, because they are not for freedom, they are a classic example of a wolf in a sheep skin with very questionable,  leaders. They are right wing nationalists, I want nothing to do with them, even if I may agree with some individual thoughts some members might present. I will not cast my vote on them. They are not good people. 

Now, because I am of a libertarian mind, I naturally can't vote Left (lewica). Poland is made of small  businesses, and thier political class knows nothing about that. Their leaders call reforms that will simply ruin many of my family/friends businesses. In my eyes, they are not "the good, intelligent left". They simply want to ride the popular wave. I'd have no problem with a smart, reasonable left leaning government. But they are not it. 

I won't vote independent - they will reach 3%, it's a wasted vote. Even if they get a few MPs, it changes nothing.

So we are left with KO (main opposition) and 3rd way (who I can guarantee you now will go into a coalition with KO so it's the same vote - if they get 8% that is). 

Without getting into the history of the system change in late 80s/early90s, round table etc, what we have in KO is the same people that made, along with PIS, the country we have now. I'd recommend looking into FOZZ and how american/German/russian interests shaped poland. We are not a country with a long standing political class that go o oxford. Our "elites" have been killed over the war/pre war years. I strongly believe Poland is ruled (especially as it is a geographically significant EU/NATO border) by interests of people in Washington, Moscow and Brussels.

But back to KO, they too ruled for 8 years, and they lied, stole, and did not represent the best interest of Poland. They were kicked out in a 2015 election because people wanted rid of them. The only real thing they have going for them in my eyes is that they are against PIS, which most people, including myself seem to be. PiS rides on hate of KO and vice versa.

Personally, I don't feel comfortable voting "against" something. I would rather vote "for". And I feel I can't do that, so I decided not to vote. 

This may leave many questions, and it's a conversation for hours. But I CBA with them. 

I've lived in England for 18 years, and I'm somewhat of a thought that I shouldn't pick what happens in Poland. I don't pay taxes there. 

So I have my strong feelings. But I probably wouldn't action them, because to an extent, it not my fight. It doesn't affect me in a way it affects someone in Poland. So I think they should decide themselves. 

[StefanAVFC]

48 minutes ago, Rds1983 said:

Hang on. I thought this was a private thread just for you? Can anyone post?

Yes why wouldn’t they be able to?

[Rds1983]

21 minutes ago, StefanAVFC said:

Yes why wouldn’t they be able to?

Was just (badly) joking about how you appeared to be talking to yourself in here. Don't worry about it. 

[StefanAVFC]

Just been with the wife to vote, seems like it'll be a good turnout. Exit poll at 21:00 CET tonight.

The best thing is that seemingly (from what I saw) less than half of people are voting in the referendum that govt attached to the election.

asking these totally unbiased and not leading *ahem* questions.

Question 1:

Do you support the sale of state assets to foreign entities, leading to the loss of control by Polish women and men over strategic sectors of the economy?

Question 2:

Do you support raising the retirement age, including restoring the retirement age increased to 67 for women and men?

Question 3:

Do you support the elimination of the barrier on the border between the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Belarus?

Question 4:

Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?

They called the referendum as a way of boosting turnout, and allowing more campaign funds to be used. Polish referenda must hit a certain % threshold to be binding, and if most people abstain then it will be a PR disaster for them. As it should.

[StefanAVFC]

2 hours ago, StefanAVFC said:

Just been with the wife to vote, seems like it'll be a good turnout. Exit poll at 21:00 CET tonight.

The best thing is that seemingly (from what I saw) less than half of people are voting in the referendum that govt attached to the election.

asking these totally unbiased and not leading *ahem* questions.

Question 1:

Do you support the sale of state assets to foreign entities, leading to the loss of control by Polish women and men over strategic sectors of the economy?

Question 2:

Do you support raising the retirement age, including restoring the retirement age increased to 67 for women and men?

Question 3:

Do you support the elimination of the barrier on the border between the Republic of Poland and the Republic of Belarus?

Question 4:

Do you support the admission of thousands of illegal immigrants from the Middle East and Africa under the forced relocation mechanism imposed by the European bureaucracy?

They called the referendum as a way of boosting turnout, and allowing more campaign funds to be used. Polish referenda must hit a certain % threshold to be binding, and if most people abstain then it will be a PR disaster for them. As it should.

A good thread describing the above:

 

[Follyfoot]

Does Leach Velalsa still get involved promoting any of the parties 

[StefanAVFC]

2 minutes ago, Follyfoot said:

Does Leach Velalsa still get involved promoting any of the parties 

Last seen bathing in beer and wine

His son is standing though

[StefanAVFC]

Exit poll in 8 mins.

Nervous...

[StefanAVFC]

There will be a new government folks!
Even with a 2% margin of error with the exit poll

[villan95]

 

 

[StefanAVFC]

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PiS!

[StefanAVFC]