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Horse Racing - the good, the bad and the ugly


bielesibub

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I've got Lincoln's Legacy in the 16.45. Do or die, until tomorrow that is. I had it at 10/1 and it's now 11/2 so there's definitely money on it, but how many times have I been led into that false sense of security?

Edited by sheepyvillian
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there's some big priced winners today, might be worth having a punt on some.

14 minutes ago, sheepyvillian said:

I've got Lincoln's Legacy in the 16.45. Do or die, until tomorrow that is. 

I've gone for Misemerald in this race. Only coz my system spewed out Ropey Guest and Tallys Son earlier, I didn't put anything on these and I was only watching, now I wish I had put them in a treble along with Warm Heart. That little wager would have got me my new wheelchair ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Its guaranteed that I've said this, I'm not going to win anything anytime soon now!

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10 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

there's some big priced winners today, might be worth having a punt on some.

I've gone for Misemerald in this race. Only coz my system spewed out Ropey Guest and Tallys Son earlier, I didn't put anything on these and I was only watching, now I wish I had put them in a treble along with Warm Heart. That little wager would have got me my new wheelchair ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Its guaranteed that I've said this, I'm not going to win anything anytime soon now!

If your system is spewing out big priced horses like the two you mentioned, then remember to spew a few in my direction, Please!

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9 hours ago, bielesibub said:

there's some big priced winners today, might be worth having a punt on some.

I've gone for Misemerald in this race. Only coz my system spewed out Ropey Guest and Tallys Son earlier, I didn't put anything on these and I was only watching, now I wish I had put them in a treble along with Warm Heart. That little wager would have got me my new wheelchair ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Its guaranteed that I've said this, I'm not going to win anything anytime soon now!

Keep the faith. 

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  • 4 weeks later...
On 24/08/2023 at 16:27, bielesibub said:

there's some big priced winners today, might be worth having a punt on some.

I've gone for Misemerald in this race. Only coz my system spewed out Ropey Guest and Tallys Son earlier, I didn't put anything on these and I was only watching, now I wish I had put them in a treble along with Warm Heart. That little wager would have got me my new wheelchair ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Its guaranteed that I've said this, I'm not going to win anything anytime soon now!

Sometimes you just know you ain't getting a winner but you continue to try.

On the other hand ,you get them days when you know your luck is in, it's a shame it's not has often as the losing feeling. 

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8 hours ago, sheepyvillian said:

Sometimes you just know you ain't getting a winner but you continue to try.

On the other hand ,you get them days when you know your luck is in, it's a shame it's not has often as the losing feeling. 

I'm still ticking along, not put any money into my accounts since earlier this year, I'm not getting rich from this, but more importantly I'm not losing either. It's certainly keeping me occupied. I'm still only putting down pennies. I also do the bookies freebies daily, spins / pick horses to win/place etc, this certainly helps keep things ticking along if there have been any poor runs with the horses.

I've recently been trying forecast / tricast bets, only because my latest system is able to generate a prediction on all the days races in a few minutes. Most days the system has given winning bets (not that I've bet on all). Any one got any hints / tips for these? I'd be interested in knowing if there are particular races that should be preferred over others.

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@bielesibub I like forecasts . Came close last week with two, one which would have paid out a lot for such small stakes . I’ve had 3 today plus a lucky 15 and some singles. 
 

Lucky 15 

Chester 2.05 Earlofthecotswolds 20/1

Market Ras 3.55 Killer Clown 8/1

Gowran 4.00 Ambitious Fellow 7/2

Market Ras 4.30 Glorious Zoff 7/1

Reverse forecasts 

Chester 2.05 Earlofthecotswolds/The Grand Visir 

Market Ras 3.55 Dead Right /Killer Clown

Market Ras 4.30 Glorious Zoff/Stonific

Singles on all those in the lucky 15 minus Ambitious Fellow 

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Regarding forecasts I like to do them in decent sized fields where there is good value. I use my top two in the ratings for the forecasts and have it as reverse forecasts. Don’t tend to bother with tricasts as I like to also put my selections in a lucky 15 or patent depending on how many races I bet on. Then I usually have them as singles too, so also having tricasts adds more cost .

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17 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Regarding forecasts I like to do them in decent sized fields where there is good value. I use my top two in the ratings for the forecasts and have it as reverse forecasts. Don’t tend to bother with tricasts as I like to also put my selections in a lucky 15 or patent depending on how many races I bet on. Then I usually have them as singles too, so also having tricasts adds more cost .

I like to go for the races with a decent number of horses as well, but most time find my bets crippled by horses being withdrawn for any reason or having rule 4 applied, if I was big on conspiracy I'd say something was going on as I surely can't be that unlucky on such a regular basis - I've just noticed that Topanga has been withdrawn from the 1615 today. There's a few decent sized races today, I've gone for:

image.png.739fe930452240a2021d9542fff0cebe.png

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6 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

I like to go for the races with a decent number of horses as well, but most time find my bets crippled by horses being withdrawn for any reason or having rule 4 applied, if I was big on conspiracy I'd say something was going on as I surely can't be that unlucky on such a regular basis - I've just noticed that Topanga has been withdrawn from the 1615 today. There's a few decent sized races today, I've gone for:

image.png.739fe930452240a2021d9542fff0cebe.png

quoting myself, sorry, but Super Schwartz has never been 28.0 odds, looks like where I'm getting some of my odds data is wrong.

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3 minutes ago, bielesibub said:

I like to go for the races with a decent number of horses as well, but most time find my bets crippled by horses being withdrawn for any reason or having rule 4 applied, if I was big on conspiracy I'd say something was going on as I surely can't be that unlucky on such a regular basis - I've just noticed that Topanga has been withdrawn from the 1615 today. There's a few decent sized races today, I've gone for:

image.png.739fe930452240a2021d9542fff0cebe.png

I know what you mean and without sounding too much of a conspiracy theorist, it does make you wonder if the bookies are "having an input somewhere".

So many times I've seen 8 runner field races where you look for a bit of value each way.. you find something decent at an e/w possibility to make the frame.

But then all of a sudden, there's a non-runner (or 2 non-runners in a 9 horse field) making it now a 7 runner race and wiping out the 3rd place paid, plus the odds change and shorten because of this too, thus now making it a pointless risk for a small return on that selection.

As I say, I see it happen all to often and more often than it used to compared to 10/20 years ago.

But the bookies didn't have as much of a controlling influence back then unlike they do now. If they see there's a way for a punter to make money on a certain event nowadays, they slam the door closed!

...or suspend your account for winning too much!

 

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