Horse Racing - the good, the bad and the ugly

[Rugeley Villa]

7 hours ago, tomav84 said:

i feel bad doing a longer odds one now as we can't do it as an E/W lucky but it was the only one i fancied today

Get in what a selection 

Edited November 11, 2023 by Rugeley Villa

[AvfcRigo82]

21 hours ago, tomav84 said:

assuming we're all doing an e/w lucky, mine is below. crazy price considering has good form here

 

11 Nov 2023 15:45:00

NEWCASTLE (A.W)

Onesmoothoperator

 

So lads, we will just let @tomav84 pick our 4 selections every Saturday from now on  

Nice one mate. I had him in a single luckily too.  Good work.  

[Rugeley Villa]

Puts us up on the lucky 15 week one 

[tomav84]

just got in having been out for the day...honestly my luck has been shocking last month or so...lovely to finally have a decent winner! had it as an e/w single too

[Rugeley Villa]

26 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

just got in having been out for the day...honestly my luck has been shocking last month or so...lovely to finally have a decent winner! had it as an e/w single too

I watched it. Just picked them off one by one was great to watch . 

[Rugeley Villa]

Needed Accrington to score another goal  for 315. The team to score two goals or more is very good value. What’s annoying they lost 3.1 but went 1 up in the second minute. Anyway had alright day on the nags two winners and profit from the lucky 15 

[tomav84]

10 minutes ago, Rugeley Villa said:

I watched it. Just picked them off one by one was great to watch . 

just watched it back. jockey did well actually to move to the rail rather than try and get through the traffic

[Rugeley Villa]

18 minutes ago, tomav84 said:

just watched it back. jockey did well actually to move to the rail rather than try and get through the traffic

Yeah very good ride 

[Villarocker]

9 hours ago, Rugeley Villa said:

What do you as a punter think is more important out of anything ? 
 

Distance / Going / Class / Handicap mark/ Course form 

for me the main thing is the distance. You either get the distance or you don’t where as I’ve known good ground horses win big races in soft . I give each criteria a % when I try and rate a race up . Trying to figure how by percentages at moment 

 

 

In races over longer distances, so 2m 6f+ over the jumps, on soft worse ground, I like to look for horses with lower weight who front run. I just think they're harder to reel in. 

[Rugeley Villa]

10 hours ago, Villarocker said:

In races over longer distances, so 2m 6f+ over the jumps, on soft worse ground, I like to look for horses with lower weight who front run. I just think they're harder to reel in. 

Yeah I’ve noticed front runners on heavy are hard to peg back especially if not carrying much weight 

[Rugeley Villa]

Yankee 11X0.50 

Sand 12.30 Operation Mana 9/2

Naas 2.00  Thecompanysergeant 11/2

Sand 2.15  Xcitations 4/1 

Sand Arqoob 2.50 10/3

potential returns £769

Lucky 15  15X 0.30

Sand 12.30 Individualiste 3/1

Naas  2.00 Summerville Boy 20/1

Sand 2.15 Fast Buck 14/1

Sand 2.50 Tottersdown 14/1

potential returns £8448

Edited November 12, 2023 by Rugeley Villa

[Villarocker]

Paul Nicholls had a great day at Wincanton yesterday. He rules that track so it wasn't too surprising. 

Today, Nicholls sends a few runners to Sandown. He has the favourite in the last race, which is a 2m bumper. Interestingly though, he has sent just one runner to Ffos Las for their final race, which is a 2m bumper. The horse is owned by JP McManus and a debutant - Jalila Moriviere - and currently at 6/4 with Bet365. It's French bred so maybe he sent it there knowing it will get softer ground, which French bred horses seem to relish? It's also Lorcan Williams' only ride on the card. 

Also at Ffos Las, Donald McCain has sent just one runner on a 7.5 hour, 280 mile, round trip. It's ridden by Theo Gillard - his only ride on the card. The horse's name - Gold Emery. I'm all over that at 6/1. 

[Rugeley Villa]

10 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

Paul Nicholls had a great day at Wincanton yesterday. He rules that track so it wasn't too surprising. 

Today, Nicholls sends a few runners to Sandown. He has the favourite in the last race, which is a 2m bumper. Interestingly though, he has sent just one runner to Ffos Las for their final race, which is a 2m bumper. The horse is owned by JP McManus and a debutant - Jalila Moriviere - and currently at 6/4 with Bet365. It's French bred so maybe he sent it there knowing it will get softer ground, which French bred horses seem to relish? It's also Lorcan Williams' only ride on the card. 

Also at Ffos Las, Donald McCain has sent just one runner on a 7.5 hour, 280 mile, round trip. It's ridden by Theo Gillard - his only ride on the card. The horse's name - Gold Emery. I'm all over that at 6/1. 

Also Freddie Gingells only ride of the day is at Sandown for Nicholls on the favourite in the first race. He’s a very good jockey and his partnership with Nicholls is very good. 

[bielesibub]

My 3 legged horses today: ¯\_(ツ)_/¯

Super Heinz

14:35 Naas Fil Dor
15:45 Naas Fleur Au Fusil
14:15 Sandown Xcitations
15:00 Ffos Las Brulure Noire
15:10 Naas So Des Flos
13:40 Sandown Impact Du Bonheur
13:25 Naas Clodders Dream

[Villarocker]

1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Yankee 11X0.50 

Sand 12.30 Operation Mana 9/2

Naas 2.00  Thecompanysergeant 11/2

Sand 2.15  Xcitations 4/1 

Sand Arqoob 2.50 10/3

potential returns £769

Lucky 15  15X 0.30

Sand 12.30 Individualiste 3/1

Naas  2.00 Summerville Boy 20/1

Sand 2.15 Fast Buck 14/1

Sand 2.50 Tottersdown 14/1

potential returns £8448

Summerville Boy is without doubt the class act in his race. But, the drop in trip and top weight are putting me off. 

And old favourite of mine goes in that race - Drop The Anchor. He's well down the weights these days and it looks the right trip for him so I've had a go at 28/1.

[Rugeley Villa]

7 minutes ago, Villarocker said:

Summerville Boy is without doubt the class act in his race. But, the drop in trip and top weight are putting me off. 

And old favourite of mine goes in that race - Drop The Anchor. He's well down the weights these days and it looks the right trip for him so I've had a go at 28/1.

Yeah top weight a concern but the soft ground will make it a slog and he’s got good form at the distance . I just couldn’t ignore him at that price for top yard/jockey . Price has been nibbled away a bit .

 

also your selection at ffos I like. Last run finished second and the winner of that went on to win again next race 

Edited November 12, 2023 by Rugeley Villa

[Rugeley Villa]

Also in the big handicap in Ireland is jazzy Matty for Gordon Elliot Now 11/1 from 18s earlier . Being stepped up in trip and improvement expected and if that is the case he could be well handicapped. Half brother to Delta Work who possesses good stamina credentials. I’ve had reverse forecast with Thecompanysergeant/Summerville Boy / Jazzy Matty 

[AvfcRigo82]

1 hour ago, Rugeley Villa said:

Also Freddie Gingells only ride of the day is at Sandown for Nicholls on the favourite in the first race. He’s a very good jockey and his partnership with Nicholls is very good. 

His ride yesterday was absolutely joyous - even though we didn't have it, it was a brilliant ride and this kid is going places.

[AvfcRigo82]

2 hours ago, Villarocker said:

Paul Nicholls had a great day at Wincanton yesterday. He rules that track so it wasn't too surprising. 

Today, Nicholls sends a few runners to Sandown. He has the favourite in the last race, which is a 2m bumper. Interestingly though, he has sent just one runner to Ffos Las for their final race, which is a 2m bumper. The horse is owned by JP McManus and a debutant - Jalila Moriviere - and currently at 6/4 with Bet365. It's French bred so maybe he sent it there knowing it will get softer ground, which French bred horses seem to relish? It's also Lorcan Williams' only ride on the card. 

Also at Ffos Las, Donald McCain has sent just one runner on a 7.5 hour, 280 mile, round trip. It's ridden by Theo Gillard - his only ride on the card. The horse's name - Gold Emery. I'm all over that at 6/1. 

Loving the info and research here.  

[AvfcRigo82]

Been busy pissing about all morning,  but will have a quick look at the cards now to see if there's a lucky 15/31 to be had for today.

Also stuck a bet on Villa which I am normally against doing but Fulhams form away and also against us is shocking, combined with our solid home form, we look a decent bet when you dig around for a bit of value.