The House Price Crash Thread

[claret+blue_watch]

More lenders withdrawing mortgage deals:Times

S&P predict large downwards correction for European property prices(especially UK and Spain) S&P

[snowychap]

Sorry Snowy I didn't notice your reply.Do you think that really was Krusty?

Nah. I doubt it was her. I think she's probably got more to occupy herself than do that. And regardless of what I may think about her performances, I think he's probably above that. She didn't conduct herself that badly when she appeared on Question Time a couple of months ago.

I may think her opinions on economics are crap but I don't think she's that pathetic.

[snowychap]

On the Phil Neville house : I have to agree with those comments like this:

It's over the top, but if you compare it with some of the ugly tat other footballers have been building or living in I have to say it's almost tasteful,

I have to say - it's not to my taste but it could well be worse. Much, much worse!

[claret+blue_watch]

Sorry Snowy I didn't notice your reply.Do you think that really was Krusty?

Nah. I doubt it was her. I think she's probably got more to occupy herself than do that. And regardless of what I may think about her performances, I think he's probably above that. She didn't conduct herself that badly when she appeared on Question Time a couple of months ago.

I may think her opinions on economics are crap but I don't think she's that pathetic.

I heard her on the radio a few weeks ago, either Radio 4 or Five Live, and many callers disagreed with her views, one caller inparticular had her on the ropes over the availabilty of credit, CDO's, MBS.She hadn't a clue what he was talking about.She has NO grasp of economics, she is just a greedy, privileged spoilt brat, who see's her free ride through life being gradually taken away from her, and she is getting angry.

[snowychap]

I heard her on the radio a few weeks ago, either Radio 4 or Five Live, and many callers disagreed with her views, one caller inparticular had her on the ropes over the availabilty of credit, CDO's, MBS.She hadn't a clue what he was talking about.She has NO grasp of economics, she is just a greedy, privileged spoilt brat, who see's her free ride through life being gradually taken away from her, and she is getting angry.

I agree her grasp of economics is probably not good (as with Mr Spencer). Perhaps the QT audience is more forgiving than the R5 audience. Perhaps they only have their knives sharpened for the poiticians and thus don't really care about the incidental contestants?

[Awol]

Ouch!

Three million families 'will be plunged into negative equity within a year

Three million families in Britain could be plunged into negative equity within a year.

One in four households would find the size of their mortgage dwarfing the value of their home by next April, MPs said yesterday.

LibDem spokesman Vince Cable said the figure, based on expert City analysis, was not alarmist but "highly plausible". The warning came on a dramatic day which saw cheap mortgage offers scrapped in record numbers.

The number of loan deals on offer fell by 10 per cent in just 24 hours.

Lehman Brothers axed its entire range while the Co-operative Bank withdrew all its two-year fixed rate home loans.

More on link

[dundeevilla]

Me and the wife's fixed rate with NR runs out in July. We got the letter of doom yesterday - basically saying take your business elsewhere.

We were hoping to move this year so we could start a family (own a 1-bed flat just now), and hoped to find a house, arrange a new mortgage and move in in July once the NR fixed deal runs out.

We've been looking at houses for around a month now, but now I'm shitting it to be honest. I don't know whether to move or not - or whether we could even get a mortgage for a house in the current climate. I don't want to buy a bigger house then be up shit creek a year from now if the economy crashes (which looks like a real possibility atm).

Dunno what to do for the best. Whatever happens we're going to need a new mortgage on our flat becuase of this NR fiasco. They told us our payments will double overnight once the fixed rate runs out.

It's a mess.

[Gringo]

BrightSale Forecasts Decline of 15% in UK House Prices to 2013

Leading online estate agent BrightSale today released a major report on the future of estate agency (Is There a Future for High Street Estate Agency ?). A key finding was that UK residential property is now at a level of overvaluation that significantly exceeds 1989 (the last market peak).

If the house price to earnings ratio was to fall back to its historic average, prices would have to come down by 30%. BrightSale is a little less bearish than this, and points to evidence from the property derivatives market in predicting a drop of 15% between now and 2013.

The online agent also predicts that completions will suffer too, falling from 1.5 million in 2007 to only 1.1 million in 2013.

15% doesn't sound too bad, but if you factor in 15% inflation over the same period, it means a drop of 25% in real terms

Mervyn will have to drop interest rates next week by another 25 basis points, but that isn't going to convince the bankers to offer more mortgages, nor magically create the capital required to support those mortgages.

[Jon]

Me and the wife's fixed rate with NR runs out in July. We got the letter of doom yesterday - basically saying take your business elsewhere.

We were hoping to move this year so we could start a family (own a 1-bed flat just now), and hoped to find a house, arrange a new mortgage and move in in July once the NR fixed deal runs out.

We've been looking at houses for around a month now, but now I'm shitting it to be honest. I don't know whether to move or not - or whether we could even get a mortgage for a house in the current climate. I don't want to buy a bigger house then be up shit creek a year from now if the economy crashes (which looks like a real possibility atm).

Dunno what to do for the best. Whatever happens we're going to need a new mortgage on our flat becuase of this NR fiasco. They told us our payments will double overnight once the fixed rate runs out.

It's a mess.

TBH, i'd say the market for hosue buying is not too bad at the moment. Certainly, right now, it is a buyer's market, in that sellers may be prepared to accept lower offers on their property than would have been the case 6 months ago.

The gamble is whther the market will continue to dip for the next few months/years, or whether the market is finding a new level and will level off soon and remain constant for some time.

Also, if you have decent credit rating, getting a half decent mortgage with a different lender right now should be no problem. Interst rates have dropped a little recently, and i doubt they will go up significantly for the next 6 months or so, so getting a tracker mortgage could be a god option. rates may even come down slightly over the next 12 months.

It's not all doom & gloom IMO mate.

[The_Lions_Roar]

Me and the wife's fixed rate with NR runs out in July. We got the letter of doom yesterday - basically saying take your business elsewhere.

We were hoping to move this year so we could start a family (own a 1-bed flat just now), and hoped to find a house, arrange a new mortgage and move in in July once the NR fixed deal runs out.

We've been looking at houses for around a month now, but now I'm shitting it to be honest. I don't know whether to move or not - or whether we could even get a mortgage for a house in the current climate. I don't want to buy a bigger house then be up shit creek a year from now if the economy crashes (which looks like a real possibility atm).

Dunno what to do for the best. Whatever happens we're going to need a new mortgage on our flat becuase of this NR fiasco. They told us our payments will double overnight once the fixed rate runs out.

It's a mess.

TBH, i'd say the market for hosue buying is not too bad at the moment. Certainly, right now, it is a buyer's market, in that sellers may be prepared to accept lower offers on their property than would have been the case 6 months ago.

The gamble is whther the market will continue to dip for the next few months/years, or whether the market is finding a new level and will level off soon and remain constant for some time.

Also, if you have decent credit rating, getting a half decent mortgage with a different lender right now should be no problem. Interst rates have dropped a little recently, and i doubt they will go up significantly for the next 6 months or so, so getting a tracker mortgage could be a god option. rates may even come down slightly over the next 12 months.

It's not all doom & gloom IMO mate.

Me and my girlfriend are moving into our first house in 10 weeks, we're on a tracker as this was recommended by the mortgage advisor (a friend of the family). Hopefully all will be ok.

[ianrobo1]

you will be OK, your deal was agreed and they can not drop them. As long as you can afford to repay no probs.

the deals that are being withdrawn are the two fixed deals being given to LTV people of 90% or more

so as long as you have adecent deposit most deals are still there for you and probably some decent ones

[snowychap]

House prices 'see sharp decline'

House prices fell by 2.5% in March, the biggest monthly decline since September 1992, the Halifax has said.

The latest monthly figure from the UK's largest mortgage lender was worse than many experts had expected.

House prices are now 1.1% higher than they were a year ago, the slowest annual growth rate for 12 years.

Despite the drop in prices, Housing Minister Caroline Flint denied that the market was heading for a crash similar to the one at the start of the 1990s.

Adjustment time?

Speaking to the BBC, Ms Flint said that it was not fair to compare difficulties in the current housing market with the problems it was having in 1992, the last time prices fell by such a margin.

She said that today, the market was underpinned by a healthy employment environment and a steady economy.

However, she added that the government would keep its eye on the situation and was planning to meet the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML) and other industry representatives next week to discuss if any action was needed to help borrowers.

The Halifax, along with all other market commentators, is now convinced a big slowdown is underway.

"We are definitely seeing an adjustment in the housing market," said Mr Martin Ellis, chief economist at the Halifax.

"I am surprised that we have seen a fall of quite this extent, but of course we have been seeing some falls in previous months, so it's not surprising that there's actually been a decline during the month."

For the first three months of the year, the Halifax said prices fell by 1.1% to a UK-wide average of £191,556, according to its data.

Using this figure, the average house price fell by £4,912 in March.

Shrinking mortgages

Separate figures from the CML on Tuesday revealed the rapid contraction of the mortgage market, under the impact of problems in the global financial markets, and the subsequent credit crunch.

Since last autumn, this has restricted the ability of banks and building societies to lend money to customers.

This has led to lenders shrinking the range of mortgages on offer, demanding much higher deposits from borrowers, and raising their interest rates on certain deals.

The CML figures indicated that in the three months to February, lending to first-time buyers was at its lowest level since early 1975.

The number of mortgages granted in February to all groups of home buyers was running at its lowest level since 1992.

And loans for buying a home, rather than for people simply changing deals or expanding their mortgages to finance other spending, now make up only 30% of all mortgage lending - the lowest level on record.

Falling prices

The Halifax has also revised its predictions for 2008 and now expects prices to fall over the course of this year.

Rival lender Nationwide took a similar stance earlier this month after reporting that prices had fallen for five months in a row.

Analysts said that the weaker-than-expected data from the Halifax would raise expectations that the Bank of England would cut interest rates by at least 25 basis points to 5% on Thursday.

However, because the lack of liquidity in money markets is making it more expensive for banks to borrow, a rate cut would not necessarily be passed on to mortgage holders, observers say.

"The sharp fall in the Halifax house price index in March highlights the growing pressure on the residential market as lenders continue to scale back their activity in the market," said Simon Rubinsohn, chief economist of the Royal institution of Chartered Surveyors (Rics).

"Loan-to-value ratios are being lowered at the same point as borrowing rates are being raised, putting increasing pressure on first-time buyers who are having to find ever larger deposits," he added.

AVERAGE UK HOUSE PRICES

October 2007: £197,000

November 2007: £194,500

December 2007: £197,163

January 2008: £197,243

February 2008: £196,465

March 2008: £191,556

Source: Halifax

(seasonally adjusted figures)

[snowychap]

Mortgage lending hits 16-year low

The number of mortgages being lent for house purchase has slumped to its lowest level for 16 years, according to the Council of Mortgage Lenders (CML).

There were just 49,000 loans made to home buyers in February, 3.5% lower than in January and 33% down on February last year.

Loans for house purchase made up only 30% of all mortgage lending, the lowest proportion on record.

The CML blamed the credit crunch, which it said would restrict lending further.

'Shrinking business'

Michael Coogan, director general of the CML, said the February figures reflected transactions that started several months ago, so the situation was likely to get worse.

"More recently, there has been consistent evidence of tightening in lending criteria which will lead to shrinking pipelines of new business as the recent Bank of England's credit condition survey made clear," he said.

"We expect this process of further tightening in lending criteria to continue in the second quarter as lenders respond to the challenging market conditions," he added.

The CML's mortgage figures for the three months to February, at a combined 163,000, are the lowest for any quarter since early 1992 during the depths of the last recession.

There were just 18,000 loans to first-time buyers in February, the lowest figure since monthly records started in 2002.

And the level of first-time lending to home buyers over the past three months is now at its lowest since the first quarter of 1975.

[TrentVilla]

And yet despite this I'm waiting for weeks for my application to go through due to........ a backlog! Go figure.

[Gringo]

There's plenty of applications TV, just fewer packages and fewer offers.

[Gringo]

House prices 'see sharp decline'

Taken from the halifax report:

* House prices fell by 2.5% in March. Prices in Quarter 1 were 1.0% lower than in 2007 Quarter 4. House prices in March were 1.1% higher than a year earlier.

* As expected, there was a mixed regional picture. The biggest rises were in Greater London (1.6%), East Anglia (1.4%) and East Midlands (2.2%). There were price falls in a number of

regions with the biggest falls in West Midlands (-5.0%) and Wales (-4.7%).

Good to see it's just those city boys taking a well deserved kicking eh Ian?

[ianrobo1]

certainly srange and different from the picture drawn up when listening to the radio

however certainly not at this stage anywhere near approaching the crash levels but at a correction, which surely we need as average house prices at 7 times average wage is not substanable

[Jon]

And yet despite this I'm waiting for weeks for my application to go through due to........ a backlog! Go figure.

indeed. swines. Took C & G quite a while for them to finally get round to approving my re-mortgage, whilst R B of S sorted my new mortgage out super fast.

Much depends on the mortgage lender and how efficient/busy they are.

C & G had just implemented a new computer system, so were experiencing "problems"? How is your application with?

In terms of mortgages, i'd definitely say trackers were the way to go for the next few years, as i can't see the B of E raising rates due the the current housing climate.

[Jon]

certainly not at this stage anywhere near approaching the crash levels but at a correction ....

one can only hope so, Ian.

I think a correction of sorts was needed, as first time buyers were being priced out of the market.

Let's just hope it's not a full blow crash.

[Gringo]

certainly srange and different from the picture drawn up when listening to the radio

however certainly not at this stage anywhere near approaching the crash levels but at a correction, which surely we need as average house prices at 7 times average wage is not substanable

Reworking the old phrase - "what's the difference between a crash and a correction? A correction is when your neighbour loses his house; A crash is when you lose yours."

On the first page, i placed my definition of a crash - 20% drop over two years. What's yours, just so we know when correction turns into crash.

And the doom mongers keep on coming.

House prices 'will crash soon': Bank chiefs warn YOUR home is overvalued by 30 per cent

House prices are 30 per cent too high in the UK and could soon crash, the International Monetary Fund warned yesterday.

After a decade-long housing boom, it fears Britain is one of the most vulnerable countries in the world to suffer a devastating price collapse.

In a further blow, both the Bank of England and mortgage brokers warned that the mortgage meltdown is going to get even worse.

The number of mortgage deals available has collapsed 13 per cent since Monday and 70 per cent since last summer's credit crunch began.

David Hollingworth, a mortgage broker at London & Country, said: "It has got to be one of the most rapidly changing and volatile weeks any of us can remember. The credit crunch has really got a grip on the mainstream mortgage market and there is nothing you can look to that shows the situation is going to improve in the near future."

The Bank of England is widely expected to cut interest rates by 0.25 per cent to 5 per cent on Thursday.

But experts say this will make very little difference as lenders have been increasing their rates rather than passing on cuts to customers.