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PuntersAdvice Betting Log


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PuntersAdvice Betting Log
 
 
This betting log will be very selective and usually only one bet will be posted each week.
This will be a medium term project that will last for a minimum of 2 years.
 
The opening balance will be 1,000.
Stake will be 5% or 10% of the current balance.
 
 
Markets:
win-draw-win
over 2.5 goals
both teams to score
team to win & over 2.5 goals
 
 
Prices will be taken from 6 bookmakers:
Bet365
Ladbrokes
Stan James
William Hill
BetVictor
Paddy Power
 
 
The leagues I will focus on are:
English Premier League
Spanish Primera Division
German Bundesliga
Italian Serie A
French Ligue 1
Dutch Eredivisie
Portuguese Primeira Liga
Irish Premier League
Norwegian Eliteserien
Swedish Allsvenskan
Finnish Veikkausliiga
Japanese J-League
USA Major League Soccer
Champions League
Europa League
 
 
 
On to the opening bet of the log...
 
 
 
English Premier League: Southampton v Liverpool
 
 
-Southampton average 2.59 goals per league game (12/27 Over 2.5 Goals).
-Liverpool average 3.89 goals per league game (20/27 Over 2.5 Goals).
-Daniel Sturridge has scored in eight consecutive Premier League appearances.
-Only four teams have kept fewer clean sheets than Liverpool in the top flight this season (7), three of those teams are in the bottom four.
-Southampton have scored in 23 of their 27 league matches this season.
-There have been a total of 49 goals scored in each teams last 6 league matches.
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in fifteen of Liverpool’s last seventeen games in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have conceded at least two goals in eight of their last ten away matches in the Premier League.
-Defensive midfielder Wanyama is absent for Southampton.
 
 
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Stake: 50
Bookmaker: BetVictor
Odds: 1.75
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  • 2 weeks later...
English Premier League: Everton v Cardiff City
 
 
-Everton have scored over 1.5 goals in 8 home games this season.
-Cardiff have conceded over 1.5 goals in 9 away games this season.
-Everton have won 6 from their last 7 home league games.
-Everton are undefeated in 21 of their last 22 home matches in the Premier League.
-Cardiff have won just one away game all season, lost their last 7, and they have failed to score in eight of their last 10 away matches.
-Cardiff have been losing at both half time and full time in 5 of their last 7 away matches in the Premier League.
-Center-back Ben Turner could be doubtful for Cardiff.
 
 
Bet: Everton To Score Over 1.5 Goals
Stake: 52
Bookmaker: StanJames
Odds: 1.57
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English League 1: Wolves v Shrewsbury
 
 
-Wolves are looking to make it a club record 10 consecutive wins.
-Wolves have won their last 9 games by a minimum 2 goal margin with 7 clean sheets.
-Shrewsbury have 1 win in their last 11 games.
-Shrewsbury have doubts over on-loan Bolton striker Tom Eaves (hamstring), Aaron Wildig (quad) and Luke Summerfield (thigh).
 
 
Bet: Wolves -1 Asian Handicap
Stake: 104
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 1.475
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English Premier League: Man Utd v Liverpool
 
 
-Liverpool have scored at least 3 goals in their last 4 matches in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have won their last 4 matches in the Premier League.
-Liverpool have been superb in attack, however, and may take a lead into the break having scored 27 more goals in the first half of league matches this season than their hosts.
-Liverpool have won 5 of their last 6 league matches, scoring 20 goals and have lost just 4 away league games this season.
-Man Utd have lost or drawn 50% of their league matches.
-Man Utd have to consider their match against Olympiakos who have just won their domestic league and have a 2 goal advantage in the Champions League and more than likely Man Utd will have to win the CL to be in the competition next season.
-Fellani is starting and is far too slow against Liverpools front 6.
 
 
Liverpool: Mignolet, Johnson, Skrtel, Agger, Flanagan, Gerrard, Allen, Henderson, Sterling, Suarez, Sturridge
 
Man Utd: De Gea, Rafael, Jones, Vidic, Evra, Mata, Fellaini, Carrick, Januzaj, Rooney, van Persie
 
 
Bet: Liverpool To Win Or Draw (Double Chance)
Stake: 96
Bookmaker: Bet365
Odds: 1.55
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English Premier League: Tottenham v Arsenal
 
 
-We will round off this weeks bets with the last game in the Premier League between two local teams teams who both have a host of injuries however Tottenham don't have many top quality replacements unlike Arsenal.
-Arsenal missing: Diaby, Walcott, Ozil, Ramsey.
-Tottenham missing: Lamela, Chiriches, Capoue, Dawson, Dembele.
-Tottenham are on a bad run having lost on Thursday to Benfica and are 6 points behind Arsenal in the race for a champions league place having played 1 game more.
-Arsenal have won both meetings this season.
-Tottenham have conceded 5 goals in each of their home games against Man City and Liverpool and will again be playing with a slightly unusual formation against one of the most technically proficient teams in the league and should be pinned in their own half for much of the game with a lineup that looks to be trying to play counter attacking football which they simply don't have the pace for against this Arsenal side.
 
 
Tottenham: Lloris; Naughton, Kaboul, Vertonghen, Rose; Sandro; Townsend, Bentaleb, Eriksen, Chadli; Adebayor.
 
Arsenal: Szczesny, Sagna, Koscielny, Mertesacker, Gibbs, Arteta, Rosicky, Oxlade-Chamberlain, Podolski, Cazorla, Giroud.
 
 
 
Bet: Arsenal To Win Or Draw (Double Chance)
Stake: 54
Bookmaker: Boylesports
Odds: 1.4
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Champions League: Barcelona v Atletico Madrid
 
 
-Have played eachother 4 times since 2013, all under 3.5 goals.
-Last two meetings finished 0-0.
-Atletico have not won at Camp Nou since 2006 and will come to this match to defend and go to the second leg at home with a 0-0 or 1-1 result.
-Barcelona have won 2 of their previous 6 Champions League matches against Spanish opposition.
-Atletico are undefeated in the Champions League.
-Barcelona struggled to break down a tight defensive unit in Espanyol at the weekend, winning 1-0 and will face a similar strategy here.
-Atletico's top scorer Diego Costa picked up a knee injury on Monday and is doubtful for this match.
 
 
Bet: Under 3.5 Goals
Stake: 52
Bookmaker: StanJames
Odds: 1.44
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French Ligue 1: Guingamp v Montpellier
 
 
 
-Guingamp and Montpellier occupy 18th and 15th place in the total goals per league match table with 1.91 and 2.29 goals respectively.
 
-They both have an average of 1.5 total goals per match in their last 6 league games.
 
-They have a combined 74% of league matches going under 2.5 goals.
 
-Guingamp have the 4th worst offense and the 5th best defense in the league.
 
-Saihi (Montpellier) has returned but has said himself he is another 2 or 3 games away from match fitness.
 
-Defender Mathieu Deplagne is available for Montpellier, but will serve a one-match ban for accumulation of yellow cards against Marseille.
 
-Guingamp will soon have captain Lionel Mathis available again following an Achilles injury, but the Montpellier match comes too soon.
 
 
 
Bet: Under 2.5 Goals
Stake: 53
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
Odds: 1.55
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German Bundesliga: Hoffenheim v Augsburg
 
 
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in Hoffenheim's last 17 home games in the Bundesliga.
-Hoffenheim have scored at least 2 goals in their last 8 home matches in the Bundesliga.
-There have been over 2.5 goals scored in 5 of Augsburg's last 6 away games in the Bundesliga.
-Hoffenheim are undefeated in their last 5 home matches against Augsburg in all competitions.
-Augsburg still have a slight chance to qualify for Europe themselves after a win against Bayern last weekend. Several important players could return to the starting line-up.
-The last meeting had 24 shots with 16 on target.
 
 
Bet: Over 2.5 Goals
Stake: 50
Bookmaker: Ladbrokes
Odds: 1.55
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