Venezuela

[Xann]

17 hours ago, bickster said:

Excuse my ignorance but what has Wall Street to do with oil prices? 

Ask the author.

Though it's an industry that goes to war for profit, suppresses alternative technologies and bribes scientists to deny climate change. 

Undersell now (perhaps on the sly with governmental collusion?). Gain access to the World's largest oil reserves later.

I'm not saying this has happened, my knowledge of diddling the Global commodities market isn't great, but would you put it past them?

 

Edited February 27, 2019 by Xann
Spelling! :O

[blandy]

1 hour ago, peterms said:

What I find hypocritical and double standards is the ludicrous pretence that Venezuela's problems are self-inflicted.  Like the guy said whose thread I posted earlier, it's the laughable idea that its history began 20 years ago.

To call for Venezuela to be stabilised and its problems addressed is quite correct.  To pretend that this can be done while at the same time there is one of the most far-reaching, thorough and vindictive strategies of destabilisation ever seen is just a joke.

The way forward is for the US to piss off, and leave other countries alone, remove all sanctions, blockades and so on, and then for Venezuela to work with other, more supportive countries to restore stability and tackle problems.  Calling for problems to be resolved while pretending the country is not facing an existential crisis is simply not something that looks either realistic, or good faith.

I agree with much of that. As I've repeatedly said, I'm not defending the US or the US actions. Where I differ is that the endemic corruption etc. of the current Gov't, or the oppression of protesters cannot be ignored or overlooked as a major cause of the current problems. The South American socialist model always goes that way. It is not a case of America caused Maduro (or Chavez) to be corrupt, or caused the incompetence and brutality. Or the power grabbing, arresting of elected opponents, government vote rigging and all that. They did not. Maduro and Chavez before him (later on in his reign) are one of the 3 the main causes of Venezuela's problems. The level of disappeared money is absolutely mind-blowingly staggering, as is the level of poverty when weighed against the nations assets - hence the protests. The third cause along with US and internal issues is the oil price collapse and an economy which has been set up to be so reliant on oil.

The country is facing a crisis because the Government of the country is rotten, part of the corruption at all levels, is incompetent and unable to manage without external problems and then hit further, now by still more external influences.

The Gov't there has been completely anti-democratic for years now. America's sanctions were introduced 4 weeks ago (making things worse). Their attempts at regime change, as you say, are a major problem for the world and have been also for decades across various nations.

Yes America keep the heck out, but that isn't remotely going to mean Maduro is got rid of. It won't end the corruption and incompetence, the oppression, the human emergency (denied to exist by Maduro).

[chrisp65]

If I thought installing the next guy would fix the corruption, I could get more sympathetic to the U.S. cause.

He'll be just as corrupt, but with more business opportunities.

[OutByEaster?]

13 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If I thought installing the next guy would fix the corruption, I could get more sympathetic to the U.S. cause.

He'll be just as corrupt, but with more business opportunities.

The next guy is almost always a right wing lunatic, installed by the US under a strange pretence of democracy who hates everything except handing national resources over to the prevailing global corporate structure. (See also Brazil 2015-19).

 

[blandy]

16 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

If I thought installing the next guy would fix the corruption, I could get more sympathetic to the U.S. cause.

He'll be just as corrupt, but with more business opportunities.

Yeah. As peter said, the corruption there has been around for ages. It's particularly bad at the mo and there's no guarantee a new bod wouldn't also be or turn bad and precedent isn't good in that regard. The US should keep right out (though aid is welcome). The solution needs to be restoration of legitimate non-crooked government, return to an independent judiciary and the end of oppression etc. I have no idea who will do that, I just know from reading and learning that the current situation is terrible and blaming it all on the US, while ignoring the rampant internal mess caused by successive gov't actions and inactions is missing a huge part of the picture.

[chrisp65]

We can't blame it all on the U.S. just like we couldn't blame the Contras completely on the U.S., or Pinochet, or a dozen other examples. But I doubt it's worse now. I suspect it's just highlighted, as it's suiting our side to high light it and social media et al these days means we can see what we never saw before. We never saw most of the story of the disappeared, we don't see why El Salvador sends more illegal immigrants to the U.S. border than Venezuela does. Or why Honduras has more illegal immigrants heading for the U.S. They are two U.S. endorsed regimes with incredible poverty and lack of opportunity. But they don't suit the story.

I'm not trying to defend the current Venezuelan regime, I'll be honest I've paid them scant attention. I just refuse to accept that all the U.S. and the U.K. want, is to help the poor little people. 

No, we'll have sniffed an opportunity for a profit and we'll have joined in a half arsed half baked plan that will just lead to a slightly different demographic being shat on. Because that's what we do.

How's our support for the Kurds getting along? Haiti got electricity yet?

What the hell have the Venezuelans got that the Haitians haven't? Oh yeah.

 

[blandy]

7 minutes ago, chrisp65 said:

I doubt it's worse now

Looking at stuff on the internet from non-US supporting sources it seems to be worse than before. e.g. Amnesty said this last week

Quote

The human rights crisis that has engulfed Venezuela for the past few years has shattered the lives of millions of people. Here’s what you need to know:

1 - Excessive use of force

Much of the current unrest in Venezuela can be traced back to 29 March 2017, when the Supreme Court of Justice - backed by President Nicolás Maduro - moved to take over the National Assembly, where the opposition holds a majority. This triggered protests that were repressed by the Maduro administration with the unlawful and disproportionate use of force. Between April and July 2017, more than 120 people were killed, around 1,958 were injured and more than 5,000 were detained amid mass protests.

2 - Mass protests

In 2018 there were 12,715 protests across the country, according to the Venezuelan Observatory of Social Conflict. These have continued in 2019 after President of the National Assembly Juan Guaidó called for mass demonstrations against Maduro. 

Amnesty’s report ‘Nights of Terror’ revealed how Venezuelan security forces and government-sponsored civilian armed groups have violently broken into people’s homes as a way of intimidating them against taking part in demonstrations or any other form of protest.

3 - Repression escalating

State authorities have undertaken a systematic policy of repression throughout the crisis, but recent patterns suggest this is intensifying.

and this

Quote

Venezuela remained in a state of emergency, repeatedly extended since January 2016. A National Constituent Assembly was elected without the participation of the opposition. The Attorney General was dismissed under irregular circumstances. Security forces continued to use excessive and undue force to disperse protests. Hundreds of people were arbitrarily detained. There were many reports of torture and other ill-treatment, including sexual violence against demonstrators. The judicial system continued to be used to silence dissidents, including using military jurisdiction to prosecute civilians. Human rights defenders were harassed, intimidated and subject to raids. Conditions of detention were extremely harsh. The food and health crises continued to worsen, especially affecting children, people with chronic illness and pregnant women. The number of Venezuelans seeking asylum in other countries increased.

Cato said this about Chavez (going back a bit to 2008) and

Quote

In the nine years since Chavez came to power, an estimated $300,000,000,000 of oil income has entered the national treasury. The exact number is uncertain due to the poor transparency of the government accounts, and because the national petroleum company no longer presents financial results to the U.S. Securities Exchange Commission or to the Venezuelan people. In parallel, during Chavez’s tenure, national debt has increased from $22,000,000,000 to about $70,000,000,000. Together with income tax revenues, the total income of Venezuela during Chavez’s presidency has been approximately $700,000,000,000. This formidable amount of money is nowhere to be seen in terms of public works or effective health and education programs.

Three parallel budgets existed-totaling more than $80,000,000,000-in 2007: the formal one, for some $55,000,000,000 (including additional amounts), approved without discussion by the submissive National Assembly; a second one, amounting to $10,000,000,000, derived from the international monetary reserves taken from the Venezuelan Central Bank, in violation of the laws of the country; and a third, in the amount of $15,000,000,000, built from the funds siphoned out of Petroleos de Venezuela, monies which were required for investment and maintenance of the petroleum industry. None of these budgets are discussed publicly or subject to accountability.

Irregularities abound in the management of public funds: more than $22,500,000,000 in dollar transfers have been made to foreign accounts, maintains the Venezuelan Central Bank, and at least half of that money remains unaccounted for. Jose Guerra, a former Central Bank executive, indicates that some of this money has been used by Chavez “to buy political loyalties in the region … and some has been donated to Cuba and Bolivia, among other countries.”

... Venezuelan journalist Carlos Ball estimates that bankers loyal to the government could have profited by up to $600,000,000 as a result of the differential between the official and the black market rates. Former Chavez Minister of Finance Jose Rojas has predicted that “the loss of autonomy of the Venezuelan Central Bank and the disorder in the management of the financial resources on the part of the government will lead to a significant financial crisis.”

The nine years of Chavez’s presidency have led to the highest levels of government corruption ever experienced in Venezuela. The main reasons have been: the record oil income obtained by the nation, money going directly into Chavez’s pockets; a mediocre management team working without transparency or accountability; the ideological predilections of Chavez, which have led him to try to play a messianic role in Latin America, and even world affairs; and the policies of handouts put in place by Chavez to keep the Venezuelan masses politically loyal.

Corruption, Inc.

Three major areas of corruption have emerged during the Chavez presidency: grand corruption, derived from major policy decisions made by Pres. Chavez; bureaucratic corruption, at the level of the government bureaucracy; and systemic corruption, taking place at the interface between the government and the private sector.

The current inflation rate is 10 million percent.

It goes on and on.

It's terrible. I'm sure some of the corruption will be by parties favoured by the US, or non-Gov't. But the scale of the problems is unprecedented and worse than it's ever been.

[peterms]

1 hour ago, blandy said:

the oppression of protesters 

Protestors are openly marching.  In smaller numbers than pro-government marches which the BBC is unfortunately finding it "too difficult" to cover, admittedly, but marching.  The opposition is openly calling for an invasion from a vastly superior military power.  They have sought further economic sabotage against their country.  I wonder whether people doing the same in, oh, let's say the US, would be treated better, or worse?

1 hour ago, blandy said:

government vote rigging 

Since international observers of elections have pronounced the elections not only fair, but significantly better than, oh I don't know, let's say the good old USA again, it would be helpful if you could say why you are in a position to disagree with them, rather than just repeating an unevidenced claim.

1 hour ago, blandy said:

the level of poverty when weighed against the nations assets - hence the protests

The strategy of the USUS is  precisely to starve the population in order to create protests.  See also Iraq, Iran...lots of places.  That is the whole point of sanctions,  and the token gesture of a few trucks on the border is meant to disguise this,  in the eyes of people who choose not to understand what is happening.

1 hour ago, blandy said:

an economy which has been set up to be so reliant on oil. 

Again, it has been a core technique of imperialism for 150 years or more to make weaker countries dependent.  Where a country has a small number of valuable commodities, this is more easily achieved than where it has a diversified economy.  It's cheaper and easier than military conquest, and buying off a corrupt local elite to facilitate it usually works well.  The UK did this successfully for a long time, now the US is the world leader in this technique.  Chavez and Maduro obviously did not set up the economy like this (again, you seem to choose to look no further back than 20 years), but they should have tried to diversify the economy more, but it's not quick or easy.  Rather like turning round an oil tanker.

1 hour ago, blandy said:

America's sanctions were introduced 4 weeks ago 

Bollocks.  Simply untrue.

[Xann]

Using Amnesty to report what's happening on the ground is fair enough.

Using the Cato Institute - Formerly the Charles Koch Foundation, to explain why it's happening is suspect at best.

There's some fab lines in there...

Quote

Today, the nation is locked in an intense struggle between the defenders of democracy and a president intent on becoming a dictator for life.

F*** off America and sort your own democracy problems out -  Address people like er the Kochs.

 

I'm sure Venezuela does have a corruption problem. I'm also sure the US can't help but act on greed.

[chrisp65]

Yep, I get the point that it's really really bad, but inflation at 10 million per cent or 10 thousand per cent as its been under previous regimes is kinda irrelevant isn't it? It just means local currency literally isn't worth anything.

I'm not trying to play it down, I take the point completely. I just absolutely cannot get excited about the one crisis I'm being told we need to help out with. When that's the crisis that is sat on top of oil.

America is thinking of itself, we are tagging along.

This is not about poverty or life chances or any of that. Haiti will be all the proof anybody could need that this is not about the prospects of the poor. 

Below, I've listed top, middle and bottom concerns we have for Venezuela:

Oil

Oil

Oil

 

When was the last time we genuinely went in anywhere with even a whiff of it just being the right thing to do? Balkans? Sierra Leone?

 

 

 

 

[blandy]

2 hours ago, chrisp65 said:

I'm not trying to play it down, I take the point completely. I just absolutely cannot get excited about the one crisis I'm being told we need to help out with. When that's the crisis that is sat on top of oil.

Totally agree.

[blandy]

10 hours ago, Xann said:

Using Amnesty to report what's happening on the ground is fair enough.

Using the Cato Institute - Formerly the Charles Koch Foundation, to explain why it's happening is suspect at best.

There's some fab lines in there...

F*** off America and sort your own democracy problems out -  Address people like er the Kochs.

 

I'm sure Venezuela does have a corruption problem. I'm also sure the US can't help but act on greed.

Yes i also agree with the sentiment. My whole points and comments are not about America, they’re about Venezuela. Their government is part of the problem, not some kind of innocent victims of wholly externally generated fake crisis. The us influence is rotten, Maduro rotten, Chavez rotten. Ignoring one of the major causes of the problem misses the opportunity to understand how to change things for the better. It’s not credible to claim ( not that you are or would) that corruption is bad when done by right wing us puppets but ignore it if it’s socialists. It’s a massive factor, and the place has had left wing govt for 20 odd years. Guilty, guilty guilty.

Cato is anti foreign interference and fell out with the Kochs big style 20 years ago. The writer of the article I quoted from Cato “Gustavo Coronel, as president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida, was the Venezuelan representative to Transparency International from 1996-2000. He was a member of the board of directors of Petroleos de Venezuela from 1976- 79....”

[blandy]

2 hours ago, peterms said:

... the BBC is unfortunately finding it "too difficult... .... the good old USA...

The strategy of the US ....imperialism...

Bollocks...

ah but... what about...this that, the other

Dispiriting. 

[Xann]

10 hours ago, blandy said:

Cato is anti foreign interference and fell out with the Kochs big style 20 years ago. The writer of the article I quoted from Cato “Gustavo Coronel, as president of Agrupacion Pro Calidad de Vida, was the Venezuelan representative to Transparency International from 1996-2000. He was a member of the board of directors of Petroleos de Venezuela from 1976- 79....”

Quote

The Cato Institute is libertarian in its political philosophy, and advocates a limited role for government in domestic and foreign affairs. This includes support for abolishing minimum wage laws; opposition to universal health care; the privatization of many government agencies including Social Security, NASA, and the United States Postal Service; abolishing child labor laws; and a non-interventionist foreign policy.

Wiki

Cock eyed World view.

[blandy]

8 minutes ago, Xann said:

Wiki

Cock eyed World view.

As you say. Your link says “advocates a limited role for government in ...foreign affairs.”

but the point is the govt corruption in Venezuela. Transparency international says the same as Cato. Corruption has steadily worsened there over time. Blips for the better occurred at the start of chavez’s time, but were soon lost. It was at an all time low on the index ( where low index = bad) by 2015 and has bumped along the bottom since. It has got worse, which was my reply to Chris.

[Xann]

Just now, blandy said:

As you say. Your link says “advocates a limited role for government in ...foreign affairs."

Not the Govts stance is it?

Worst of both worlds.

[blandy]

41 minutes ago, Xann said:

Not the Govts stance is it?

Worst of both worlds.

Maybe. The point was a body which is against us govt interference and is legally prohibited from political activity isn’t “to be ignored” due to “they’re just proponents of interfering politically”

[Xann]

My point is that using a whacko think tank's interpretation of events as reason to justify regime change is beyond bonkers, considering the price that's been paid by other recipients of US intervention.

Especially since the situation on the ground has been at the minimum exacerbated by the US, and actually possibly engineered as such.

'Possibly' is giving the US the benefit of the doubt. Factor in the history of US meddling and it's just about nailed on.

[blandy]

20 minutes ago, Xann said:

My point is that using a whacko think tank's interpretation of events as reason to justify regime change is beyond bonkers, considering the price that's been paid by other recipients of US intervention.

Especially since the situation on the ground has been at the minimum exacerbated by the US, and actually possibly engineered as such.

'Possibly' is giving the US the benefit of the doubt. Factor in the history of US meddling and it's just about nailed on.

Sure. I'm not using any interpretation of events they have - it was a source of stats on corruption under Chavez. Plenty of others are out there, from Wiki to TI to European and other non-US bodies. The place is riddled with crooked public servants and this is a major cause/contributor to the population wanting change. It's not all down to the US by a long way. 

The statistics I referenced illustrate the worsening and huge scale of governemnt and public body corruption - stuff that Chavez and Maduro are responsible, by virtue of their roles as leader. Corruption index - low = bad. Yes corruption's long been a problem. The inept and crooked socialist leaders have made it worse.

 

[Xann]

The 'repair' has been worse than the problem in our last few scrapes, and if we're going by graphs? Get all the countries up and we'll do them in order of corruption.

First stop - Africa. Where a leader's wealth matches the country's debt.