Week 14 - More clinches?

[leviramsey]

Texans are first to be eliminated.

The Jaguars are now 4-9. Their remaining games are: v Bills, v Titans, @ Colts ... considering that the Colts should have the division wrapped up and be locked in seeding-wise for the last game, 7-9 is not out of the question. Here's a scenario (not the only one), for the Jaguars to make the playoffs:

If the Jaguars run the table, that leaves the Colts 11-5 at best, Bills 7-9 at best, and the Titans 8-8 at best. The Jaguars would also be 7-5 in the AFC.

Therefore the Jaguars would need the Titans to lose at least one more game (the Jaguars will win any divisional tiebreaker with the Titans), with their upcoming opposition (excluding the Jags) being: @ Broncos, v Cardinals, v Texans. Call it a loss to the Broncos and wins over Cardinals and Texans (none of which are relevant to whether the Jaguars make the playoffs).

We've now eliminated: Texans, Bills, and Titans.

The Browns could go 8-8 (6-6 AFC). They are basically assured of losing any tiebreaker with the Jaguars at 7-9, thanks to h2h loss and an inferior AFC record, so the Jags really only need the Browns to lose at least one game from: @ Patriots, v Bears, @ Jets, @ Steelers. A loss to the Patriots or Bears doesn't hurt the Jaguars as a loss to the Jets or Steelers could. Say the Browns beat the Patriots, Jets, and Steelers to go 7-9 (6-6 AFC). That leaves the Jets at best 8-8 (4-8 AFC) and the Steelers 8-8 (6-6 AFC).

As with the Browns, then we'd need one more loss by the Steelers and Jets to put them 7-9 and certain to finish behind the Jaguars on conference record. The Jets' remaining games are v Raiders, @ Panthers, @ Dolphins. Best case for the Jags is 2-1 with the loss to the Panthers. That leaves the Raiders at best 7-9 (7-5 AFC) and Dolphins at best 9-7 (8-4 AFC). The Steelers remaining schedule is v Dolphins, v Bengals, @ Packers. Best case is 2-1 with the loss to the Packers. That leaves the Dolphins now at best 8-8 (7-5 AFC) (any scenario for the Jaguars making the playoffs requires the Bengals to win the AFC North and the Patriots to win the AFC East).

The Raiders would need a loss in the AFC (from v Chiefs, @ Chargers, v Broncos), then to have a worse conference record than the Jaguars. Likewise, if the Dolphins lose in either of their other two division games (v Patriots, @ Bills), they would be 7-9 (6-6 AFC) at best.

So now we've eliminated Texans, Bills, Browns, Raiders, Jets, Steelers, Titans, and Dolphins. The Ravens and Chargers are all that stands between the Jaguars and the playoffs.

The Chargers are best-case 9-7 (6-6 AFC). Any two losses (from v Giants, @ Broncos, v Raiders, v Chiefs) does the job (so the Raiders losing to the Chiefs or Broncos but beating the Chargers is really helpful for the Jaguars). For argument, say the Chargers beat the Broncos and Chiefs, but lose to the Giants and Raiders. That leaves them 7-9 (5-7 AFC), behind the Jaguars.

The Ravens have a best-case AFC record of 8-4. Two AFC losses (from v Patriots and @ Bengals) and a further loss in either v Vikings or @ Lions is likely to be needed.

None of those results would be that shocking...

[leviramsey]

Sunday commentator pairings:

Colts @ Bengals: Gumbel/Dierdorf

Dolphins @ Steelers: Eagle/Fouts

Raiders @ Jets: Albert/Gannon

Chiefs @ Redskins: Harlan/Wilcots

Browns @ Patriots: Macatee/Tasker

Bills @ Bucs: Dedes/Beuerlein

Titans @ Broncos: Nantz/Simms

Vikings @ Ravens: Myers/Ryan

Lions @ Eagles: Burkhart/Lynch

Falcons @ Packers: Brennaman/Billick

Seahawks @ 49ers: Buck/Aikman

Giants @ Chargers: Albert/Johnston/Siragusa

Rams @ Cardinals: Stockton/Barber

Others are the usual crews

[Brumerican]

What a boring matchup tonight...the league should be more flexible with the schedule so that better games can be shown on Sun-Mon-Thurs nights.

Better teams do not always make for better games ! It was a great game last night .

[Milfner]

Kubiak fired. Pretty inevitable really 

[StefanAVFC]

Tad worried that the 49'ers are going to go all out and try and destroy Wilson.

 

Excited for the game, but worried at the same time.

[leviramsey]

I'm sure a classy gentleman like Mr. Harbaugh wouldn't have his guys try to take out RW3...

Kubiak fired. Pretty inevitable really

So we know that he doesn't have compromising pictures of the owner.

[leviramsey]

Game Riffs

The Battle for the NFC West... ended weeks ago.

Let's get any manufactured drama out of the way immediately. The Seahawks are the better team. They are better on offense (by a considerable margin), defense (narrower margin), and special teams (a big part of each team's business model). The Seahawks lead the 49ers in the division race by three games and are likely to control all tiebreaker scenarios if the teams somehow end the season tied. The Seahawks have won the last two matchups by a 71-16 combined score; when the 49ers last beat the Seahawks 13-6, fourteen months ago, Alex Smith was still their starting quarterback.

The Seahawks can smell an opportunity to not just sew up the NFC West on Sunday, but endanger the 49ers playoff chances entirely, diluting the NFC postseason pool and making their path to New Jersey even smoother. The 49ers may be in do-or-die mode, but do-and-kill mode is a pretty powerful motivator too, so this game's point spread is a source of mystery for me. I triple-checked it on Thursday afternoon, then scanned multiple news sources to assure that Russell Wilson wasn't struck by a meteor.

Most individual matchups favor the Seahawks. Their greatest current weakness, the second-through-fourth cornerback positions, matches up precisely with the 49ers biggest weakness, their second-through-fourth receiver positions. A healthy Michael Crabtree gives the Niners hope in this matchup, but Crabtree only bridges part of the gap between a station-to-station offense and the best defense in the NFL. If the Niners were still goofing around with Jonathan Baldwin and using a jumbo package for half of their snaps, the Seahawks would win this game by 24 points, even in San Francisco.

The Seahawks also nullify some of the 49ers greatest strengths. The 49ers have been the best field position team in the NFL since Jim Harbaugh took over. Their average drive starts on the 31.34 yard line this year, the best field position in the league (stats courtesy Jim Armstrong at Football Outsiders). Field position is something Harbaugh and the organization focus on: ball control offense, defensive turnovers, punter Andy Lee and his coverage. With the offense puttering, they beat many weaker teams by pushing them back toward their own end zone, then turning short drives into field goals while opponents struggle just to punt out of trouble.

But the Seahawks are the second best field position team in the NFL, starting their drives on the 31.30 yard line. Punt-and-pin doesn't work on the Seahawks; in fact, it is likely to backfire. The Seahawks allow 1.3 yards per punt return. The Niners average just 4.0 yards per punt return, once fair catches are factored in (though the Niners return game has improved since since LaMichael James replaced Fair Catch Williams). Football Outsiders ranks the Niners as the fifth best defense in the NFL deep in opponent's territory, but the Seahawks rank third. The field tilts toward the 49ers 14 games per year, but it tilts away from them when they face the Seahawks.

It must be frustrating for the 49ers to be so out-49ered by their kid brothers to the north. Seattle's dual-threat quarterback sensation is more sensational, their bruising running back more bruise-inducing, their former Pac-12 coaching mastermind more masterly. The administers of 27-6 thumpings become the victims when the Seahawks arrive, and this year the Niners cannot win the NFC West thanks to an early-season head start. The 49ers are a great team that can be beaten at their own game, and they are cursed to play in a division with an opponent custom-built to do so. That curse will cost them another game; the 49ers must then spend the rest of December making sure it does not cost them the postseason.

Prediction: Seahawks 27, 49ers 16

[leviramsey]

Nothing is as eternal as a championship, though airport delays come close.

Life is starting to imitate cough syrup commercials for Drew Brees and the Saints. First, there was the three-hour pummeling in the rain with a Motorhead din echoing from all directions on Monday night. Then, a long delay on the tarmac and a late-night return to the hotel because the Saints plane had a cracked windshield (there is nothing like hearing that your cross-country charter flight experiences the same mechanical problems as Uncle Carmine's 1982 Cutlass Ciera). Finally, a 9 p.m. west coast flight that arrives home 3 p.m. local time on Tuesday, obliterating any opportunity to recuperate during a short work week. Drowsy? Headache? Scratchy throat? Medicine would help you get some rest. If you had time to rest.

It takes a week to shake a cold, but good medication can shorten that to seven days. Either way, the Saints only have four days to prepare for a Panthers team rapidly developing immunity against all attempts to stop them. Four days of practice means Rob Ryan has only four days to concoct one of his defensive gameplans consisting of "Engage Eight Blitz-Blitz-Blitz" and "Four deep, five-under zone" with very little in between. That may be a mixed blessing for the Saints. We will address the possibility that opponents figure Ryan out as the season wears on in a moment (Jerry Jones is clearing his throat), but the Seahawks had the perfect counter-strategy ready whenever Ryan blitzed the house or sent everyone fishing in the Puget Sound.

Some coordinators dictate what they plan to take away from the offense, but at his worst, Ryan changes the Google homepage to announce what he plans to allow. Ryan defenses, stout in many circumstances, can be exploited by offenses do many things well (run, pass, misdirection-option stuff) with base personnel: they can react to Ryan's extremes without making major substitutions or adjustments. Last year's Redskins did it against last year's Cowboys. Last week's Seahawks did it against the Saints. The Panthers have been doing it to opponents all year.

Changings of the divisional guard are rarely cut and dry; the Seahawks are still asserting themselves against the 49ers, and it will take more than one win to vault the Panthers completely over the Saints. Fate played a hand by handing the Panthers a battered, exhausted opponent. But we have reached the point where the Panthers don't need fate's help anymore.

Prediction: Panthers 24, Saints 21

[leviramsey]

You cannot win without defense, and getting defensive about it doesn't count.

December is the month when the Cowboys play poorly while talking endlessly about why they played poorly in past Decembers and how they plan to avoid playing poorly this December. Jerry Jones, the Mozart of blame deflection, came up with an easy scapegoat after watching Monday Night Football. "I'm gonna talk about Rob Ryan a minute," Jones said on his radio show, so you knew it was about to get good. "There's no question we were rendered almost really helpless as the last part of the season came along to really be what we wanted to be defensively. We're not that way this year."

This year, the Cowboys defense was rendered almost really helpless immediately at the start of the season. The Cowboys allowed 414 net yards per game in five December games last year, three of which were victories (albeit high-scoring shootouts which Tony Romo was blamed for losing). They allow 421.6 yards per game this year. They allowed a 62.9% December completion rate last year and a 64.3% completion rate this year. Yes, some indicators have improved, but blame-dropping your former defensive coordinator when you currently rank dead last in the NFL in yards per game is wifty even by Jones' incomparable standards.

The Bears are 3-8 in the last few December-Januaries (counting Sunday) and have a defense that could give up 150 rushing yards to the kid collecting shopping carts outside the supermarket. But instead of blaming a former Cowboys employee, they are counting on one. Jay Ratliff played 23 snaps in his Bears debut, and coaches hope to get him more involved now that troubling hamstring problems are finally fading. Stephen Paea (turf toe) also returned to the middle of the Bears defense, and Julius Peppers has been sliding from end to tackle in the hope of disrupting some blocks and bringing relief to both the run defense and pass rush.

In other words, there's fixing the problem, and there's fixing the blame. One is useful, the other easy. Jerry Jones only has the hang of one of them.

Prediction (with long-range forecast of wind and cold factored in): Bears 27, Cowboys 21

[leviramsey]

The big story of the week: a random couple invited Peyton Manning to their wedding, and he took the time to send back the "regretfully decline" card, along with "best wishes" and an autograph.

In other words, ultra-successful multi-millionaire Peyton Manning has better manners toward presumptuous strangers than you have toward your cousin Eunice and her new fiancé. Yes, it's her third marriage. Yes, it's a Wiccan ceremony in the woods on the winter solstice. Just send the regret card so they can figure out who sits on which tree stump, for heaven's sake.

The couple rewarded Manning's generosity by making sure all of America saw the highly-collectable memorabilia they received in exchange for a wedding invitation. Entrepreneurs around the world will now send crates of wedding, birthday, and Bar Mitzvah invitations to poor Peyton. If you see a suspicious "Cannot attend, best wishes, Peyton '18' Manning" First Holy Communion card for a youngster named Isaiah Goldstein selling for $250 on e-Bay, please exercise some caution.

If you invite Ryan Fitzpatrick to your wedding, the bouquet will get intercepted by another bridal party, and Fitzpatrick will stuff his face until his beard is crusted with cocktail weenie crumbs.

[leviramsey]

(Two suspicious white vans are parked outside the Browns practice facility: one marked "PATS' 'Pizza'" and the other "Flowers By Isabel.")

FBI AGENT: (entering van with coffee caddie) Hey guys, I just got off the phone with Quantico and they want us to look for diesel receipts in... whoops, this must be the wrong van.

BELICHICK AGENT (crouched over array of monitors): No worries. You watch Haslam. We'll watch Josh Gordon.

FBI AGENT: So the whole "spying" thing is real? I thought that Antonio Smith guy in Houston was just horsing around.

BELICHICK AGENT: He's a disinformation agent. Deep cover. Are any of those coffees light roast?

FBI AGENT: Sure, take one. Seems like a duplication of services to have us both spying on the Browns. Maybe it would be more efficient if we teamed up.

BELICHICK AGENT: Dick Cheney used to say the same thing. The boss wouldn't go for it. Uh-oh, Browns team president Joe Banner is approaching the van. Act natural!

(Both agents lean casually against huge consoles of high-tech surveillance equipment).

JOE BANNER: Hey, guys, you wouldn't happen to be spying on Browns practices, would you?

BELICHICK AGENT: No sir! We're... delivering fresh flowers for Norv Turner's office!

FBI AGENT: That's our cover, you nitwit. You are supposed to make pizza.

JOE BANNER: No worries, fellas. But I think your camera behind the end zone on Field B is out of focus. You cannot get a good look at Caleb Hanie's scripted plays. Here, let me adjust it for you.

BELICHICK AGENT: Wait... you are helping?

JOE BANNER: Of course. We're down to possibly starting Hanie or Alex Tanney at quarterback. With our loss to the Jaguars, the first pick in the draft is still a possibility. Do you think I want to risk actually winning this game? Also, FBI dude: there's a memo titled "Secret Rebate Policy" in the bottom drawer of the third file cabinet in the boss' office. I don't need any unnecessary interference in football operations, if you catch my drift.

FBI AGENT: Man, this organization really is screwed up.

JOE BANNER: The important thing for all three of us to remember is that none of us were ever here.

(Door flies open)

AGENT COULSEN: (brandishing gun) Step away from the equipment and put down the coffee please.

FBI AGENT: Now S.H.I.E.L.D. is real?

AGENT COULSEN: No, I am actually actor Clark Gregg. No one is watching my superhero-themed television show. Probably because there are no superheroes in it, just some Hogwarts wannabes and a foxy hacker who whines constantly. I saw the Patriots-Broncos television ratings and want a piece of the action.

BELICHICK AGENT: Buddy, the Patriots are playing the Browns this week. People would rather watch VH1-Polka than the Browns. I am getting combat pay just to spy on them.

AGENT COULSEN: I see. Carry on then.

JOE BANNER: Say, you seem to be in pretty good shape, Mr. Gregg. Ever consider playing quarterback?

AGENT COULSEN: You would really consider hiring some middle-aged guy to play quarterback?

JOE BANNER: We're the Browns. It's what we do.

[leviramsey]

At work, but streaming Red Zone on my phone... woohoo!

[Tegis]

Holy snowball

[StefanAVFC]

TB TD - 80 yard run on 2nd play

[leviramsey]

Holy snowball

Three snow games... all three visitors are dome teams! (not counting the Chiefs @ Redskins, where the snow is a bit lighter)

Red Zone just went from Philadelphia 70-80 miles up the road to the Jersey swamps... blizzard in Philly and not a snowflake in the Meadowlands.

Edited December 8, 2013 by leviramsey

[leviramsey]

TD Steelers

[leviramsey]

Browns FG makes it 3-0.

The Patriots like playing from behind, I guess.

[AVFCforever1991]

[packoman]

How can they even see what's happening down there?

[AVFCforever1991]

How can they even see what's happening down there?

 

Megatron isn't bound by human laws...