TomC

Underrated outside B6, sure. Underrated by Villa supporters? I've never heard anyone be less than worshipful.

At the beginning of the season, I think most of us would have picked these 11 players (with Buendia instead of Ramsey), whether 4-3-3 with Watkins-Ings-Bailey up front and Buendia in the midfield 3, or 4-2-3-1 with Watkins-Buendia-Bailey as the 3. Ramsey has certainly complicated things, which isn't bad. Our best players are now healthy. It's up to Deano to get the most out of them.

No need to run for cover. We'll let you live since you said "a bit." Seriously, I don't remember anyone overrating him back in the 1990s. People loved him because he grew up a supporter, gave his best for the club, and occasionally scored a big goal like in the 1996 League Cup final. He was certainly competent but nobody thought he was a superstar. Don't confused being loved with being thought of as a great player.

However you choose to define "mid-table," this year, I'd say there are three teams clearly better than everyone else (Liverpool, Chelsea, Man City), and three clearly worse than everyone else (Burnley, Newcastle, and Norwich...though Newcastle are unlikely to stay that way for long). In between those extremes, some will prove a little better than others over the course of the season, but any team can beat any other team on any given week. Whether you end up at the bottom or the top of that large group is going to depend on how you fare against other teams in that group. 7 of our 9 PL matches have been against that group...we've won 2, drawn 1, lost 4. I analyzed our fixtures through Boxing Day before, and I'm not going into detail again, but in short, if we want to improve, we need to be ruthless against those bottom 3, hope to nick a few points off the top 3, and, most importantly, do well against the middle pack. Our record against the middle pack is what is discouraging.

I'd have to think a while about my vote for most overrated, but for most underrated...it goes back a while...Garry Parker. (1991-95 for the youngsters.) He could pass a ball. Maybe my memory is failing me, but I seem to remember that he fell out with Big Fat Ron and had a hard time getting a game once we got Andy Townsend. I think Houghton, Richardson, Daley, and Townsend became the regulars in midfield.

Interesting...

Like others said, this is a good and thought-provoking post, even if I don't agree with 100% of it. I think that a lot of us have mixed thoughts. It's disturbing to think that a collapse could happen again. I hope that a lot of it was Lerner and won't be repeated with NSWE. You weren't the only one asking questions last year. I don't question his ability overall, but I do think he is slow to react, whether within a game (substitutions) or over a stretch of games. Patience is a virtue, but sometimes you can have too much of a good thing. Our squad was thin last year and it showed in the second half with injuries and fatigue. I think it's a valid excuse. This year, we have depth. He won't have that excuse anymore. You can argue that we haven't often had our best XI out there, but we've never had a side half full of fringe players, either. Connecting Deano to the long-term plan, NSWE have not spent petroclub money. They clearly intend to build carefully. That means progressing up the table slowly. I'd be happy if we can get into the top 6 in the next 2-3 years and the CL places in 5. Unless we end up in a relegation battle (unlikely), which would be a clear sign of moving backwards, I would give him until at least the end of this season, maybe next. Alex Ferguson didn't win a cup until his 4th year and the league until his 7th. I know, it was a different era, and I know, Ferguson was a once-in-a-generation managerial talent, but you have to give someone time to come good. Again, patience is a virtue, but not unlimited patience. If we finish in the 9th-12th range three years in a row, or go backwards, then it's time to say that Deano can't take us any further. I'm not ready to say that yet. If gradual progress is the goal, we've gotten that so far. The only thing that would make me pull the trigger earlier is if he loses the players. Although we've seen Barkley and now Sanson blow up at him, I've not heard any rumours that he's losing the dressing room as a whole, and I have no reason to doubt his ability to manage personalities.

Fair enough. Like I said, in re-watching, I can see the problems with possession. Let's just not go OTT in the other direction. He's started what, 5 matches of 9?

By "different wavelength," I was think of early in the second half when he saw some space beyond Dougie and passed it there but Dougie didn't make the run and Buendia raised his hands in frustration. Similar things have happened a couple other times in other games...sometimes in reverse, i.e. Buendia makes a good run and they don't see him. I just re-watched the first 65 minutes and he did get dispossessed a bunch of times so that is a valid criticism...though on a few of them he received the ball with his back to goal with no opportunity to turn and/or had two men on him, so they were difficult situations. When re-watching the match, I saw him make 2 bad passes in the first half and 1 in the second. No more than anyone else, and they weren't the worst of giveaways. The problem, as JohnnyP said, may be more with keeping possession than passing. On the other hand, go back and watch the delicious pass he made (from the centre) to spring Watkins (on the left) in the 47th minute, or the brilliant 1-2 he played with Watkins (on the left) followed by an opportunity-creating pass to Ings in the 51st minute. He makes several passes to set up goal chances every time he plays. And these two were on the left. The idea that he is a right-sided player only is silly.

Notice that the best sides have the lowest percentages! I'm not surprised that we're at the high end this year. Without Grealish, getting the ball forward has been the problem. However, I thought that we'd have a much lower percentage with Grealish running the show last year and it's only slightly lower. This could mean a few things... 1. We have trouble breaking the press and play the long ball to get out of it. (Probably the biggest part of the problem.) 2. We lack creativity in midfield. (Could be part of the problem this year but doesn't explain last year.) 3. Deano likes to get the ball up the pitch quickly rather than building patiently.

Note a few things... 1. He's in the middle just as often as on the right in these highlights. 2. He scores goals with both feet. He's going to be good for us.

I agree that the double pivot role is the question in that system. I posted about this in the match thread...sorry to repeat myself for those reading both threads...but to elaborate... In a 4-2-3-1 like we played second half, and even in the way we play 3-5-2 where 2 of the CMs stay deeper, one of the 2 is usually a "pure" defensive midfielder and one is supposed to be a capable DM who also has the ability to launch attacks. My initial though this year was that we'd be rotating and playing 2 of 3 from Dougie, McGinn, and Sanson. They're all capable DMs who can participate in the attack, though with different skill sets (Dougie is a better passer, McGinn scores goals.) I thought that playing two of them would work: Why wouldn't you want two DMs who can join the attack? But others on this board have convinced me: We do need a pure DM. And that means pairing that person with either McGinn or Dougie (or Sanson) and sitting the other. Dougie made our goal yesterday. Expecting him to be the main DM is a waste of his talent. Of course, we're going to have to make do with what we have this year, which means either using Nakamba as the pure DM (he's improved this year but still not someone who would be starting in a top 6 side) or existing without the pure DM. Next year, a pure DM probably should be on the shopping list. That will probably mean selling one of Dougie, McGinn, and Sanson, because that would be 3 players for 1 role. Ramsey's distribution from deep is excellent and probably better than his passing in the final third, so he could be the second pivot alongside the pure DM as well. But he hasn't been trained as a DM (see that penalty-giving tackle against Wolves) and then you would have a 4th player competing for that role.

I agree that to expect him to do the Grealish role would be insane. Targett has always come forward, though...our system has always had the fullbacks overlap, although obviously not as often as a wing back does. And Targett can cross a ball pretty well, but he hasn't done it this year. As others have pointed out, that may be because Grealish is gone. He doesn't get the time that he used to.

Absolutely not a poor passer. Who else in our team could have made that centre-back splitting pass to Ings against Wolves? Maybe Dougie. That's it. As I said a while back, I don't expect another Grealish. Grealish is world class. I merely expect Buendia to be good. As I see it so far, Buendia has Grealish's passing skills and Bailey has his dribbling skills. Neither is as good in attack. (Though both track back on defense better.)

Well, let's look ahead to next week... We played the second half 4-2-3-1 the way I thought we would at the start of the season... Martinez Cash - Konsa - Mings - Targett Luiz - McGinn Bailey - Buendia - Watkins Ings ...and it looked pretty good. I know some may argue Ramsey for Buendia. I'd argue Young for Targett. But whoever you put in, I hope Deano sticks with it.

We used it last week. This week we didn't have enough possession in their end to implement it. You can't press when you cough up the ball after two touches in their end and half your team is still trying to get over the halfway line.

He made some progress tonight...he addressed it at halftime instead of the 65-70 minute mark.

No...he has the vision for the last ball, and both Dougie and Ramsey can handle the distribution role from deep. He'll be fine. Maybe sometimes the rest of the team is on a different wavelength, but I'd rather that they adjust to his wavelength than the other way around. He has an eye for a good pass.

I don't get all the Buendia hate. I thought he was our best outfield player in the first half. He makes good decisions. His passing is more accurate than just about anyone else in the side. Sure, tonight, sometimes he made simple backwards or lateral passes rather than doing anything brilliant...but that's because he was receiving the ball with his back to goal, and Arsenal's press was constantly nipping at his heels. At least he got the ball to a teammate. That's more than you can say for most of the rest of the team...the press caused everyone else to cough up the ball. And as for the argument that he belongs on the right instead of in the centre...go back and watch the Wolves match.

This was probably Ings' worst game in a Villa shirt, but other than this game, he's done plenty of running. I've seen him make tackles in our own end many times. Lack of running is usually not one of his faults. And Watkins did not press like he usually does tonight, either.

A match of two halves...so let's start with... Deano: He adjusted at halftime for once. And it made a difference. So he gets half-credit. Martinez: Obviously our best player tonight. Not at fault for any of the goals. Buendia: Our best outfield player in the first half (not saying much!) and one of the few players in the side who can pass a ball right now. But he did seem to fade in the second half and, although I was disappointed at first, it was probably the right decision. Ramsey: A little rest did him some good. Back to his best tonight. When he had a chance for a second goal, he didn't just miss; the Arsenal defender lunged and forced him to miss (see below), so I'm not holding that against him. Bailey: Probably the most talented player we have right now. Looking forward to seeing more of him. McGinn: Worst match I've seen him play. Despite all the good things he does, his passing just isn't very good. He picks intelligent passes, but often they are ambitious beyond his ability, and he gives the ball away too much. He gets 95% of the blame for the third goal after an overambitious pass. Also, Arsenal seemed to be targeting him on corners because he's short. He was with his mark on the first goal, but he was probably 8 inches shorter and didn't even try to jump. So yes, he was at fault for two goals. Dougie: Anonymous for the first 75 minutes, which was better than you can say for McGinn. He started getting forward towards the end and made the crucial pass to make our goal. I'm beginning to think he's shackled by the way Deano uses him. In a 4-2-3-1 like we played second half, and even in the way we play 3-5-2 where 2 of the CMs stay deeper, one of the 2 is usually a "pure" defensive midfielder and one is supposed to be a capable DM who also has the ability to launch attacks. Dougie has that ability, but because McGinn goes forward, he's stuck staying deep. It's a waste of his talent. Others on this board have convinced me: We do need a pure DM. And we should pair that person with either McGinn or Dougie, and sit the other. Targett: Poor yet again. Still can't get a decent cross in. Give Young a chance again! Watkins: I've never seen him so apathetic. He's had bad stretches in attack before, but usually you can count on him to press with energy. He didn't seem to have any enthusiasm tonight. His face just looks joyless when he's out there right now. Penalty: It was close, and you can argue that the evidence wasn't convincing enough to overturn the original decision, but the original decision should have been a penalty. Best of Arsenal: (1) It will sound like a strange choice given that they scored 3 goals, but I was impressed with their back line. Whenever we threatened, someone came flying it with a committed tackle and snuffed out the threat. (2) Their press. Beyond all the faults of our individual players, as a team, we just couldn't break their press. They hounded us into submission for the first 30 minutes; I bet the possession was 75%-25% in that stretch. They couldn't keep up that level of pressing for 90, but it got them their first goal and they could afford to back off a bit after that. We need to get better at dealing with that sort of press. I hate to see what Man City or Liverpool will do to us if we don't. .

I predict that we'll start either 5-3-2 with the same starting XI as against Wolves, or 4-3-3 with Cash/Konsa/Mings/Targett, Dougie/Ramsey/McGinn, and Watkins/Ings/Buendia. I don't see us starting with a 4-2-3-1 without Bailey or Traore available to start. Of course, now that I said that, Deano will start with a 4-2-3-1.

Exactly. Why would you tell the other team what you're going to do? Keep 'em guessing.

Villa 7 Liverpool 2!!!

Agreed, but if Buendia keeps playing like he did on Saturday, we will have more chances. Not to mention that Bailey will create chances too. How much time have those two played together this year? 12 minutes against Watford. That's it. The best is yet to come.