AndyGray1985

Somehow that doesn't give me too much comfort! Any help that it predicts a total of 37 points and a 4 point advantage over 17th after 38 games? QPR, Hull and Leicester to go down and Burnley scraping home by a single point. The exact odds are 4,3 btw - so a little extra comfort there Does the forecast mention when our next goal is coming? It's an adaptive model, so it'll only correlate odds for the next game. Villa to score is around 10ish to 1 (but you can't get that in the market). Statistically I'd guess (without any data) we would be due one against Hull

Somehow that doesn't give me too much comfort! Any help that it predicts a total of 37 points and a 4 point advantage over 17th after 38 games? QPR, Hull and Leicester to go down and Burnley scraping home by a single point. The exact odds are 4,3 btw - so a little extra comfort there

Just comparing statto odds with before the weekend. Went from 3,5 to 4 and still most likely 16th on points forecast. Not my own special system, but the one with highest correlation between forecast and results that I'm aware of.

Statistically our odds for survival actually improved with this weekends results. 16th. is the most likely position atm.

To be exact it's 11 league goals in nine months, come Tuesday, as we didn't score in the last 2 games of last season either

How does this work?

Everton sold Fellaini for 27m last year and replaced him with McCarthy for 13m, so there's half of the 28m We also sold Jelavic and Anichebe for a combined 11,5m replacing them(?) with Kone and a loan player. I think we have traded up, but it's basically trading fees/salaries - not additions to the total number. In the last 5 years since July 1st 2009 EFC has a net spend of a staggering 5m - or 1m per year. This is including the Lukaku deal at 28m, but not loan fees. In my humble opinion Villa is much better positioned to compete at the top of the PL, and EFC has not been well run - we have been lucky to have prudent managers who have been able to keep us at 5-7th without investment. . Because of course you spent nothing else of the money you received for Fellaini etc did you? Our net spend for the last 5 years is 5m - and for the last 10 years it's 40m. Those 40m came from either loans or sales of assets - EFC sold off the training complex (Bellefield) and are only tennants at Finch Farm. Am I missing your point?

Wanted to stay in London...

Everton sold Fellaini for 27m last year and replaced him with McCarthy for 13m, so there's half of the 28m We also sold Jelavic and Anichebe for a combined 11,5m replacing them(?) with Kone and a loan player. I think we have traded up, but it's basically trading fees/salaries - not additions to the total number. In the last 5 years since July 1st 2009 EFC has a net spend of a staggering 5m - or 1m per year. This is including the Lukaku deal at 28m, but not loan fees. In my humble opinion Villa is much better positioned to compete at the top of the PL, and EFC has not been well run - we have been lucky to have prudent managers who have been able to keep us at 5-7th without investment.

Everton pretty much sell out all the seats that are not 1) Restricted views 2) unsold away-section seats. These amounts to around 4.500 seats of a 40.200 capacity. I think we could pull between 40-44k on average in a new stadium with a decent team on the pitch, so 10-20% increase at the gates. But the major improvement would be from corporate boxes (Goodison has 11 - Old Trafford something like 80...) and spend in the stadium. The newest stand (Park End) has a turnover of 29 pounds per seat on match days - the other 3 stands manages 11 pounds, so if you could get match day income up to the Park End level you would get: 18x27.000 pr. home game (revenue) in addition to whatever the higher attendance and corporate spending would bring. I did a much more detailed calculation last time we were having a stadium discussion, and I think the conclusion was around 10-12m extra income net, before interest and depreciation/amortisation - with fairly conservative assumptions.

Everton supporter with a strong affection for Villa here in peace. Let me just share that the last time Everton received funds that weren't loans, prize/TV money, gate receipts or otherwise commercially earned by the club was from our previous owner, a certain Peter Johnson, in the year of 1996. Most of these funds were paid back a year later. Everton have made a profit and substantially reduced debt in the 12/13 season, which combined with Europa League football, prize- and TV money and an overall very improved commercial performance finally have given us room to buy (and pay) a player like Lukaku. I'm guessing our net transfer and salary spend over the last 10 seasons will be one of the lowest in the PL for teams who played 10 seasons. A lot of this is down to having Moyes and Martinez as managers - the board hasn't coughed up a penny, and the commercial running of the club has only recently improved from amateurish to acceptable. Let me add that from the ca. 10 message boards that I read frequently, on avarage the discussions and the knowledge on this board is the best. Thanks, and all the best for 14/15 to Villa and all Villans /Andy I'm not saying it is a bad thing at all, in fact your club is ran tremendously well. My point is more aimed towards the media, who often make an apparent point of Everton having no money or being a 'poor' club. I didn't read it that way either, btw. I've just read a number of times on many different forums that Everton are splashing the cash ("Fellaini bought for 15m" - etc.), and while it's nice to see good players coming in at decent fees it's just as frustrating to see your best players sold - as I'm sure you will agree - which is often ignored when discussing the subject of EFC finances. We've also kept a fairly modest pay-roll, so the main problem has been developing the commercial side of things. What Arsenal and Man.Utd are doing to run such a sustainable business whilst City, our younger brothers and Chelsea are on financial EPO should really be admired and is what we should aspire to do on a smaller scale. To do this we really need a new stadium, but the current owners can't support the investment and leave the footballing side of the club to support itself. Unless we get investment or a new stadium (which requires investment as well) the best we can hope for is to be where we are right now - just below the top of the crop. After 12 bleak years from 1990-2002 with a couple of relegation-scares most people seem happy about the current situation (I'm certainly not complaining), but knowing that things most likely will get worse, not better, over time is a depressing outlook. In many respects I think Villa is in a much better position to get into the big time again, even if you are currently in dire straits.

Everton supporter with a strong affection for Villa here in peace. Let me just share that the last time Everton received funds that weren't loans, prize/TV money, gate receipts or otherwise commercially earned by the club was from our previous owner, a certain Peter Johnson, in the year of 1996. Most of these funds were paid back a year later. Everton have made a profit and substantially reduced debt in the 12/13 season, which combined with Europa League football, prize- and TV money and an overall very improved commercial performance finally have given us room to buy (and pay) a player like Lukaku. I'm guessing our net transfer and salary spend over the last 10 seasons will be one of the lowest in the PL for teams who played 10 seasons. A lot of this is down to having Moyes and Martinez as managers - the board hasn't coughed up a penny, and the commercial running of the club has only recently improved from amateurish to acceptable. Let me add that from the ca. 10 message boards that I read frequently, on avarage the discussions and the knowledge on this board is the best. Thanks, and all the best for 14/15 to Villa and all Villans /Andy

Food for thought... http://transferleague.co.uk/league-tables/transfer-league-table-last-five-seasons.html Villa: http://www.transferleague.co.uk/premiership-transfers/aston-villa-transfers.html

Better, Benteke

If you were a goldfish in a tank full of piranhas you'd probably think you were a piranha - and be quite optimistic... for a few seconds.

OGS is on NOK 4.4m = app. £500k a year. Aker pays half of that, BTW.

OGS isn't from Molde - his first club was Clausenengen and his stay at Molde as a player was fairly short.

Aker ASA has stated officially that they're withdrawing their financial support of MOlde FK as of the end of this season. That's not speculation - it's a lenghty and well worded communique from a listed company, it's principal and chairman.

Moyes has only one year left on his contract. He'd want trasfer money and a huge degree of control, though. He's on £65k a week today, BTW, which might be too steep?

Whats the gossip up there, regarding Moyes? Well, there's 4 credible ITK's that I know of (Sheedy, THT, LCAB and shorty), and 3 of them agree that DM is staying put. The last one is silent. Apart from that it's all TalkSport, Twitter and rubbish as usual. We don't have to pay attention to incoming transfer rumours, and there's not really any strong ones linking our better players away, so I guess the topic of this thread gets it's fair amount of attention (as I'm just proving...)

Evertonian in peace here. Whilst I'd hate for us to lose Moyes I can understand that a lot of people on here would want him as the next Villa manager. I would just like to underline a few facts: This table coincides with DM's arrival minus one year (the second one): http://www.transferleague.co.uk/ If you add the fact that EFC's financial restraints have meant a wage structure significantly lower than our peers I think it's safe to say DM has made the most of what he has had. Although impressive, DM has at many times not been cherished by Evertonians. Firstly his tactics and in-game changes have at times been rigid to the point where it almost became a laughing point. A lot of his changes and bleeding of youth has come off by having his hand forced by injuries and a wafer-thin squad at times. Secondly his record against the old top-4 has been abysmal - especially away. At times it seems we just bend over. Both these points has improved in the last couple of seasons, but instead we have picked up a habit of giving away points (home and away) against lesser opposition. Everton 2011 is Moyes' project, and for that reason alone it would be catastrophic for us to lose him. Whether it would be a loss for Villa not getting him is a different kettle of fish; I'm not so sure.