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Who Will Win The World Cup?


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Who Will Win The World Cup?  

132 members have voted

  1. 1. Who Will Win The World Cup?

    • Brazil
      24
    • Germany
      12
    • Spain
      36
    • England
      16
    • Argentina
      21
    • Italy
      1
    • Holland
      10
    • Other
      12


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Turkey and Germany in the last 4?

15 out of 32 countries (just under half) at the 2002 World Cup were European.

For Europe to only have two semifinalists implies that either:

* the standard of international football in Europe isn't noticeably better than it is in, say, North America or Asia

* Europe underperformed

As long as Europe is rivalled only by South America in terms of international football and as long as approximately half of the entrants to the World Cup are European, anything less than three semifinalists has to be considered a poor showing for Europe.

Any FA Cup where fewer than two of the Sky Four make the semifinals has to be considered a down year for the Sky Four in the competition.

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Coefficient style performance by confederation (Asia and Oceania merged since the only Oceanian representative in the period is now Asian) at 1990 and later World Cups

Methodology: 16 points awarded to champion, 8 to finalist, 4 to semifinalist, 2 to quarterfinalist, 1 to eighth-finalist... points are summed and divided by the number of countries from that confederation to appear.

2006

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 5, CONCACAF: 3

UEFA: Italy (16), France (8), Germany (4), Portugal (4), Ukraine (2), England (2), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1), Netherlands (1), Spain (1) = 40/14 = 2.85

CONMEBOL: Brazil (2), Argentina (2), Ecuador (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Ghana (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: Australia (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

2002

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 15, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 4, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Brazil (16), Paraguay (1) = 17/5 = 3.40

UEFA: Germany (8), Turkey (4), Spain (2), England (2), Ireland (1), Italy (1), Denmark (1), Belgium (1), Sweden (1) = 21/15 = 1.40

CAF: Senegal (2) = 2/5 = 0.40

CONCACAF: USA (2), Mexico (1) = 3/3 = 1.00

AFC/OFC: South Korea (4), Japan (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

1998

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 15, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 3, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Brazil (8), Argentina (2), Chile (1), Paraguay (1) = 12/5 = 2.40

UEFA: France (16), Netherlands (4), Croatia (4), Denmark (2), Italy (2), Germany (2), Yugoslavia (1), England (1), Norway (1), Romania (1) = 34/15 = 2.26

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Nigeria (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: zero

1994

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 13, CAF: 3, AFC/OFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2

CONMEBOL: Brazil (16), Argentina (1) = 17/4 = 4.25

UEFA: Italy (8), Sweden (4), Bulgaria (4), Romania (2), Netherlands (2), Germany (2), Spain (2), Ireland (1), Belgium (1), Switzerland (1) = 27/13 = 2.07

CONCACAF: USA (1), Mexico (1) = 2/2 = 1.00

AFC/OFC: Saudi Arabia (1) = 1/2 = 0.50

CAF: Nigeria (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

1990

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 2, AFC/OFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2

CONMEBOL: Argentina (8), Uruguay (1), Brazil (1), Colombia (1) = 11/4 = 2.75

UEFA: Germany (16), Italy (4), England (4), Ireland (2), Yugoslavia (2), Czechoslovakia (2), Romania (1), Spain (1), Netherlands (1), Belgium (1) = 34/14 = 2.42

CAF: Cameroon (2) = 2/2 = 1.00

CONCACAF: Costa Rica (1) = 1/2 = 0.50

AFC/OFC: zero

(as Northern Ireland did not qualify for the knockout stage of any World Cup in the period, "Ireland" is used for brevity... likewise for East Germany vis-a-vis Germany)

UEFA's performances from best to worst

2006 - 2.85

1990 - 2.42

1998 - 2.26

1994 - 2.07

2002 - 1.40

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Coefficient style performance by confederation (Asia and Oceania merged since the only Oceanian representative in the period is now Asian) at 1990 and later World Cups

Methodology: 16 points awarded to champion, 8 to finalist, 4 to semifinalist, 2 to quarterfinalist, 1 to eighth-finalist... points are summed and divided by the number of countries from that confederation to appear.

2006

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 5, CONCACAF: 3

UEFA: Italy (16), France (8), Germany (4), Portugal (4), Ukraine (2), England (2), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1), Netherlands (1), Spain (1) = 40/14 = 2.85

CONMEBOL: Brazil (2), Argentina (2), Ecuador (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Ghana (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: Australia (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

2002

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 15, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 4, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Brazil (16), Paraguay (1) = 17/5 = 3.40

UEFA: Germany (8), Turkey (4), Spain (2), England (2), Ireland (1), Italy (1), Denmark (1), Belgium (1), Sweden (1) = 21/15 = 1.40

CAF: Senegal (2) = 2/5 = 0.40

CONCACAF: USA (2), Mexico (1) = 3/3 = 1.00

AFC/OFC: South Korea (4), Japan (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

1998

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 15, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 3, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Brazil (8), Argentina (2), Chile (1), Paraguay (1) = 12/5 = 2.40

UEFA: France (16), Netherlands (4), Croatia (4), Denmark (2), Italy (2), Germany (2), Yugoslavia (1), England (1), Norway (1), Romania (1) = 34/15 = 2.26

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Nigeria (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: zero

1994

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 13, CAF: 3, AFC/OFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2

CONMEBOL: Brazil (16), Argentina (1) = 17/4 = 4.25

UEFA: Italy (8), Sweden (4), Bulgaria (4), Romania (2), Netherlands (2), Germany (2), Spain (2), Ireland (1), Belgium (1), Switzerland (1) = 27/13 = 2.07

CONCACAF: USA (1), Mexico (1) = 2/2 = 1.00

AFC/OFC: Saudi Arabia (1) = 1/2 = 0.50

CAF: Nigeria (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

1990

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 2, AFC/OFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2

CONMEBOL: Argentina (8), Uruguay (1), Brazil (1), Colombia (1) = 11/4 = 2.75

UEFA: Germany (16), Italy (4), England (4), Ireland (2), Yugoslavia (2), Czechoslovakia (2), Romania (1), Spain (1), Netherlands (1), Belgium (1) = 34/14 = 2.42

CAF: Cameroon (2) = 2/2 = 1.00

CONCACAF: Costa Rica (1) = 1/2 = 0.50

AFC/OFC: zero

(as Northern Ireland did not qualify for the knockout stage of any World Cup in the period, "Ireland" is used for brevity... likewise for East Germany vis-a-vis Germany)

UEFA's performances from best to worst

2006 - 2.85

1990 - 2.42

1998 - 2.26

1994 - 2.07

2002 - 1.40

:bonk:

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Coefficient style performance by confederation (Asia and Oceania merged since the only Oceanian representative in the period is now Asian) at 1990 and later World Cups

Methodology: 16 points awarded to champion, 8 to finalist, 4 to semifinalist, 2 to quarterfinalist, 1 to eighth-finalist... points are summed and divided by the number of countries from that confederation to appear.

2006

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 5, CONCACAF: 3

UEFA: Italy (16), France (8), Germany (4), Portugal (4), Ukraine (2), England (2), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1), Netherlands (1), Spain (1) = 40/14 = 2.85

CONMEBOL: Brazil (2), Argentina (2), Ecuador (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Ghana (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: Australia (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

2002

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 15, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 4, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Brazil (16), Paraguay (1) = 17/5 = 3.40

UEFA: Germany (8), Turkey (4), Spain (2), England (2), Ireland (1), Italy (1), Denmark (1), Belgium (1), Sweden (1) = 21/15 = 1.40

CAF: Senegal (2) = 2/5 = 0.40

CONCACAF: USA (2), Mexico (1) = 3/3 = 1.00

AFC/OFC: South Korea (4), Japan (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

1998

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 15, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 3, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Brazil (8), Argentina (2), Chile (1), Paraguay (1) = 12/5 = 2.40

UEFA: France (16), Netherlands (4), Croatia (4), Denmark (2), Italy (2), Germany (2), Yugoslavia (1), England (1), Norway (1), Romania (1) = 34/15 = 2.26

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Nigeria (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: zero

1994

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 13, CAF: 3, AFC/OFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2

CONMEBOL: Brazil (16), Argentina (1) = 17/4 = 4.25

UEFA: Italy (8), Sweden (4), Bulgaria (4), Romania (2), Netherlands (2), Germany (2), Spain (2), Ireland (1), Belgium (1), Switzerland (1) = 27/13 = 2.07

CONCACAF: USA (1), Mexico (1) = 2/2 = 1.00

AFC/OFC: Saudi Arabia (1) = 1/2 = 0.50

CAF: Nigeria (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

1990

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 2, AFC/OFC: 2, CONCACAF: 2

CONMEBOL: Argentina (8), Uruguay (1), Brazil (1), Colombia (1) = 11/4 = 2.75

UEFA: Germany (16), Italy (4), England (4), Ireland (2), Yugoslavia (2), Czechoslovakia (2), Romania (1), Spain (1), Netherlands (1), Belgium (1) = 34/14 = 2.42

CAF: Cameroon (2) = 2/2 = 1.00

CONCACAF: Costa Rica (1) = 1/2 = 0.50

AFC/OFC: zero

(as Northern Ireland did not qualify for the knockout stage of any World Cup in the period, "Ireland" is used for brevity... likewise for East Germany vis-a-vis Germany)

UEFA's performances from best to worst

2006 - 2.85

1990 - 2.42

1998 - 2.26

1994 - 2.07

2002 - 1.40

Ahhh, I see...

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  • 2 months later...

Another World Cup not held in Europe (in the modern World Cup era, which basically does start with Italy 1990) and it looks like we've got another batch of European underperformance.

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I said Spain or Brazil before the tournament and i stick by that. Brazil look the team to beat so far, despite not being at their best. I think Spain will thrash Honduras tonight and beat Chile next to go through. Argentina have started well, but if Messi is kept quiet, i see them getting beaten sooner rather than later.

I fancy Denmark as dark horses and think they'll reach the quarters at least.

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Another World Cup not held in Europe (in the modern World Cup era, which basically does start with Italy 1990) and it looks like we've got another batch of European underperformance.

why do you consider the modern world cup era to start at 1990?

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Another World Cup not held in Europe (in the modern World Cup era, which basically does start with Italy 1990) and it looks like we've got another batch of European underperformance.

why do you consider the modern world cup era to start at 1990?

That's when it became the World Cup as opposed to the Euro-Latin American Cup With A Few Countries From Elsewhere That Don't Really Give A Shit. ;)

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Thats fair enough, I wasn't having a pop. My uncle considers the modern world cup era to start at 1974 because thats when the trophy changed whereas my brothers friend thinks it was as late as 1998 because thats when it became a 32 team tournament. 1990 is certainly when African teams started to make an impact.

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1990 was also the first time most if not all of the World Cup was shown live in most of the Far East and the USA (up until that point the final and a few knockout games on weekends would be shown); since then the sport has been on a more or less continual upward swing in those territories.

It's also almost certainly the last time that more countries from the British & Irish Isles than from Asia would be represented (England, Scotland, and Ireland vs. South Korea and UAE).

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Methodology: 16 points awarded to champion, 8 to finalist, 4 to semifinalist, 2 to quarterfinalist, 1 to eighth-finalist... points are summed and divided by the number of countries from that confederation to appear.

2006

CONMEBOL: 4, UEFA: 14, CAF: 5, AFC/OFC: 5, CONCACAF: 3

UEFA: Italy (16), France (8), Germany (4), Portugal (4), Ukraine (2), England (2), Sweden (1), Switzerland (1), Netherlands (1), Spain (1) = 40/14 = 2.85

CONMEBOL: Brazil (2), Argentina (2), Ecuador (1) = 5/4 = 1.25

CONCACAF: Mexico (1) = 1/3 = 0.33

CAF: Ghana (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

AFC/OFC: Australia (1) = 1/5 = 0.20

2010

CONMEBOL: 5, UEFA: 13, CAF: 6, AFC: 4, OFC: 1, CONCACAF: 3

CONMEBOL: Uruguay (2+), Argentina (1+), Brazil (1+), Chile (1+), Paraguay (1+), Brazil/Chile (1) = 7/5 = 1.40

UEFA: England (1+), Germany (1+), Netherlands (1+), Portugal (1+), Slovakia (1+), Spain (1+), England/Germany (1), Netherlands/Slovakia (1), Portugal/Spain (1) = 9/13 = 0.69

CONCACAF: Mexico (1+), USA (1) = 2/3 = 0.67

AFC: Japan (1+), South Korea (1) = 2/4 = 0.50

CAF: Ghana (2+) = 2/6 = 0.33

OFC: zero

(italics denote cases of an intra-confederation match and thus points that will accrue to the confederation regardless of the result)

UEFA's performances from best to worst

2006 - 2.85

1990 - 2.42

1998 - 2.26

1994 - 2.07

2002 - 1.40

With only three quarterfinalists (one of whom will probably play Brazil and another of whom will probably play Argentina), Europe may well fail to match the 2002 performance.

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1990 was also the first time most if not all of the World Cup was shown live in most of the Far East and the USA (up until that point the final and a few knockout games on weekends would be shown)

Not sure that's right. The earliest World Cup I remember was Spain 1982, and most of the games (including group stage games) were on the Spanish language UHF Channel 41 in New York (i.e., Univision, although I think it was called something else back then). Maybe this was only in the New York area and other major cities, but they definitely showed most of the games live.

The same was true in Mexico '86, but the Final (Argentina-West Germany, which was one of the greatest games ever IMO) was on ABC.

I remember that TNT showed some of the games in 1990, and believe it or not they actually cut away to commercials during the games; guess they just couldn't grasp the idea of a sport with no time-outs back in those days.

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1990 was also the first time most if not all of the World Cup was shown live in most of the Far East and the USA (up until that point the final and a few knockout games on weekends would be shown)

Not sure that's right. The earliest World Cup I remember was Spain 1982, and most of the games (including group stage games) were on the Spanish language UHF Channel 41 in New York (i.e., Univision, although I think it was called something else back then). Maybe this was only in the New York area and other major cities, but they definitely showed most of the games live.

Should have qualified that with English-language broadcasts... ;)

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The winners have to come from Brazil/ Holland. Our side of the draw is too hard!

Us - Germany, Argies, Spain to get to final.

Argies - Mexico, Us/ Germany, Spain

Spain - Portugal, Paraguay, Argies/ Us/ Germany

Hard games with bookings and suspensiona a cert!

Only hard game on the other side of the draw is Qtrs - Holland vs Brazil.

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