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PFA Player of the Year Bet


YLN
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What will I do?  

11 members have voted

  1. 1. What will I do?

    • Leave it
      4
    • Split it
      3
    • Lay it
      4
    • Other....
      0


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I need a bit of advice from my fellow villans. I've three options and I'm hoping you can shed some light on what I should do. I've a €135 bet on vidic to be PFA player of the year. My return is €645 if he wins. I think I want to spread my bet, because Gerrard is looking good. I've a number of options.

1. Leave it alone. He's going to win. Enjoy your €645

2. Split it somehow so that no matter whether Gerrard or Vidic win, you get the same amount.

3. Lay it at 2.76 with Betfair. I cover my stake, but I cut my winnings by €237

Please suggest other ideas. I don't want to lose it all to that filthy scouse

Donation to VT/acorns depending on how it goes

Edit: Made sentence make sense

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  • VT Supporter

Do you reckon that the current price on Vidic overstates (or equals, I guess...) his chances of winning?

If you do, then hedge that mother (and perhaps even go further with laying it).

If you don't then either sit tight or perhaps back Gerrard (but only if you figure that Gerrard's price understates his chances).

There are few bigger mistakes in gambling than making "hedging" by making a negative EV bet (the only exception is if you made the bet simply in the expectation that the price would move enough to allow you to close the position).

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Another thread on this in Villa Talk.

If Giggs wins it then its political. Some journalists have been talking up Giggs winning it for a while now, so they might know something we dont. Giggs hasnt been the best player in the league this season. He is a semi-regular starter at Manchester United. I think there is a strong argument that he is the best player who has never won the award, and I can understand people who make a case for him being the best player in the history of the Premier League given his overall record in it (10 winners medals, probably going to be 11) so there might be a feeling amongst his fellow professionals that he deserves some kind of recognition. I would imagine it would be quite easy to start a campaign via the PFA to give it him, especially in a season where there is no obviously outstanding player.

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