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Week 6 Pink breasts


Tegis

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Best QBs

1. Nick Foles: 161 pass DYAR, 15 rush DYAR=176 overall

Foles used a steady series of jabs to set up a small number of knockout blows. He threw ten passes in the first quarter, none more than 15 yards past the line of scrimmage. He then threw one deep ball in each of the next three quarters, but he made them count, completing them all for 100 yards and two touchdowns. His receivers also helped him out a lot. Riley Cooper and LeSean McCoy each turned passes caught within 5 yards of the line of scrimmage into 40-plus-yard plays.

2. Matt Stafford: 137 pass DYAR, 4 rush DYAR=141 overall

Calvin Johnson caught only three passes for 25 yards in nine targets, so it's not as if Stafford was just relying on his biggest star. Most of his DYAR came when throwing to undrafted rookie Joseph Fauria, who was thrown three passes, resulting in three catches for three touchdowns, and 34 total yards. (Fauria is turning into quite the vulture; he now has five touchdowns on seven catches this season.) Stafford's leading receiver in terms of targets was Kris Durham who caught eight passes in 13 targets for 83 yards and four first downs.

3. Sam Bradford: 140 pass DYAR, -1 rush DYAR=139 overall

Bradford's biggest gain of the day was a 40-yard DPI to Brian Quick in the first quarter that is not included in the above numbers. That throw came on second down, which is where Bradford played best on Sunday. Not counting the DPI, he went 6-of-6 for 73 yards on second down, with 4-yard touchdown and four other first downs. His only second-down completion that failed to move the chains was a 7-yard gain on second-and-8. Bradford has a reputation as a checkdown-artist, but only three of his completions against Houston failed to move the sticks, and only one was an unsuccessful play. It helps that his average pass came with 7.4 yards to go for a first down, lowest of any quarterback this week.

4. Jay Cutler: 121 pass DYAR, 7 rush DYAR=128 overall

Cutler's first pass against the Giants was an incomplete fourth-down play in the red zone, which is unusual. From there until halftime, he went 13-of-17 for 179 yards with two touchdowns and nine other first downs, and the Bears already had all the points they needed to win.

5. Cam Newton: 117 pass DYAR, -4 rush DYAR=113 overall

Third- and fourth-down passing: 6-of-6 for 121 yards. True, two of those completions came up short of the sticks, but one of those was a 14-yard gain on third-and-16 that works out to a zero-value play. Further, two of those third-down throws went for touchdowns of 2 and 79 yards.

6. Russell Wilson: 85 pass DYAR, 22 rush DYAR=107 overall

Not listed in the tables: seven carries (six of them scrambles) for 64 yards and four first downs, including two third-down conversions. With about 11 minutes to go in the third quarter, Wilson and the Seahawks started a drive at their own 12-yard line with the score tied at 10. At that point, he had only passed for four first downs on the day. From that point forward, though, he went 10-of-12 for 140 yards and six first downs, with one sack.

7. Philip Rivers: 91 pass DYAR

8. Andy Dalton: 79 pass DYAR, 8 rush DYAR=87 overall

On the Bengals' first drive of the third quarter, Dalton hit Marvin Jones for a touchdown that put Cincinnati ahead 24-10. From that point until the end of regulation, he went 10-of-16 for 81 yards with two sacks and only four first downs, a big reason Buffalo was able to come back and force overtime. Then Dalton played much better in OT, going 4-of-4 for 55 yards and two first downs with one sack.

9. Ben Roethlisberger: 64 pass DYAR, 3 rush DYAR=67 overall

Roethlisberger had a weird day on the Jets' side of the 50. True, he went 10-of-11 for 72 yards. Only two of those plays picked up first downs, however, and only one other was considered a successful play.

10. Peyton Manning: 45 pass DYAR, -8 rush DYAR=37 overall

He's human! The above numbers do not include a pair of aborted snaps, both of which were recovered by Jacksonville. Manning was actually below replacement level in the first half. Denver had five drives in the second quarter, and on those five drives Manning went 6-of-11 for 42 yards with one first down, one pick-six, and one fumbled snap. Then he played more like himself in the second half, going 14-of-19 for 165 yards with seven first downs, plus two DPIs for 25 total yards, and one fumbled snap.

11. Tom Brady: 33 pass DYAR, 1 rush DYAR=34 overall

Brady had most of his success throwing to his left, where he went 13-of-16 for 134 yards with eight first downs, including the game-winning touchdown.

12. Matt Schaub: 33 pass DYAR

A statistical example of how gun-shy Schaub has become: Through five weeks, including DPIs as completions, the Rams were allowing opponents to complete 52 percent of their deep passes for 15.9 yards per play, both among the bottom six teams in the league. Yet Schaub tested St. Louis with only one deep pass, an incompletion to DeAndre Hopkins in the second quarter. And even that pass only traveled 17 yards past the line of scrimmage. He threw four other balls that traveled at least 10 yards downfield, completing three of them for 50 yards and three first downs.

13. Drew Brees: 37 pass DYAR, -5 rush DYAR=32 overall

Through five weeks, Jimmy Graham led all tight ends in receiving value, with 80 percent more DYAR than the next-highest ranked player at his position. With that in mind, it's safe to call Graham's performance against New England a fluke. Brees threw six passes to Graham on Sunday, five of them inside the New Orleans 40. Five of those passes were incomplete; the other was intercepted. Graham eventually left the game with a foot injury, and the Saints are hopeful he'll be able to return after their bye week. He still leads the league in receiving yards.

14. Aaron Rodgers: 10 pass DYAR, 13 rush DYAR=23 overall

It would be obvious to conclude that Rodgers struggled without James Jones and Randall Cobb, but he actually played better without them. Cobb's last receptions was a 15-yard gain on Rodgers' last pass of the first half. Up to that point he had gone 10-of-21 for 116 yards with four first downs, three sacks, two fumbles, and a partridge in a pear tree. In the second half he went 7-of-11 for 199 yards with one touchdown, four other first downs, and one interception.

15. Carson Palmer: 23 pass DYAR

Obviously, all quarterbacks will look better on scoring drives than they will otherwise, but the difference between good Palmer and bad Palmer was still striking. On Arizona's three touchdown drives, he went 8-of-9 for 165 yards with two touchdowns and three other first downs. On Arizona's other 12 possessions, Palmer went 17-of-32 for 133 yards with only four first downs, plus two interceptions and one sack for a safety.

16. Thad Lewis: 23 pass DYAR, -10 rush DYAR=13 overall

First seven drives: 10-of-18 for 85 yards with four first downs and three sacks. Last three drives of regulation (not counting a kneeldown at the end of the fourth quarter): 9-of-14 for 131 yards with two touchdown, three other first downs, and two sacks. He threw just one pass in overtime, an incompletion on third-and-6.

17. Mike Glennon: 4 pass DYAR, -6 rush DYAR=-2 overall

The Bucs got the ball at their own 20 down by eight points with nearly ten minutes left in the game. From that point forward, Glennon went 3-of-8 for 19 yards, with more sacks (two) than first downs (one).

18. Joe Flacco: -6 pass DYAR, 2 rush DYAR=-4 overall

From the too-little-too-late department: On Baltimore's first ten drives, Flacco went 10-of-21 for 129 yards with four first downs, four sacks, and two fumbles, and the Ravens scored zero points. On Baltimore's last three drives, Flacco went 10-of-13 for 213 yards with two touchdowns and five other first downs, and the Ravens scored 17 points.

19. Brandon Weeden: -12 pass DYAR

Weeden's favorite receiver was Chris Ogbonnaya, whose 12 targets were tied for most among running backs and tied for fifth among all players this week. Those 12 targets resulted in seven catches for 61 yards, with two first downs (including a touchdown) and two interceptions. Looks like Weeden needs a new favorite receiver.

20. Colin Kaepernick: -26 pass DYAR, 6 rush DYAR=-20 overall

Not counting passes to Vernon Davis, Kaepernick went 8-of-18 for 65 yards with four first downs, two sacks, one interception, and two fumbles, one on a botched snap. As for Davis, we shall get to him shortly.

21. Eli Manning: -23 pass DYAR

Between the third and fourth drives of this game, Eli looked about as good as he ever has, going 7-of-7 for 124 yards, with every completion picking up a first down, capped off by a 37-yard touchdown. Outside those two drives, he went 7-of-19 for 115 yards and six first downs, plus a 15-yard DPI with one sack and three interceptions, including a pick-six.

22. Tony Romo: -25 pass DYAR

On passes to the middle of the field, Romo went 3-of-9 for 25 yards with one first down and one interception.

23. Andrew Luck: -44 pass DYAR, 1 rush DYAR=-43 overall

24. Chad Henne: -46 pass DYAR, -4 rush DYAR=-50 overall

Twenty of Henne's throws went to Justin Blackmon. On his other plays, he went 13-of-22 for 113 yards with five first downs, two sacks, and an interception.

25. Matt Cassel: -47 pass DYAR, -7 rush DYAR=-54 overall

Cassel led the league with 14 failed completions. On deep passes, he went 1-of-6 for 21 yards and an interception.

26. Ryan Fitzpatrick: -71 pass DYAR, 12 rush DYAR=-59 overall

Throwing to his right, Ryan Fitzpatrick went 5-of-10 for 43 yards with one first down and one interception. In related news, Richard Sherman usually lines up to the quarterback's right.

27. Robert Griffin: -86 pass DYAR, 24 rush DYAR=-62 overall

Inside the Dallas 40, Griffin went 2-of-8 for 22 with one first down and one interception.

28. Alex Smith: -71 pass DYAR, 5 rush DYAR=-66 overall

It's very rare to see a quarterback with no interceptions or fumbles this low in the tables. Throwing to the short right, Smith went 6-of-15 for 24 yards and one first down, with six failed third-down plays. No player was targeted on more than four of those throws, so you can't blame it on any one receiver.

29. Geno Smith: -71 pass DYAR, -19 rush DYAR=-90 overall

Third downs: 2-of-7 for 19 yards with two first downs and two sacks. Four times Smith failed to convert a third down with fewer than 10 yards to go.

30. Terrelle Pryor: -124 pass DYAR, 22 rush DYAR=-102 overall

Not included in that statline: 10 sacks, including six after Oakland fell behind in the fourth quarter. When he did have time to throw, he almost always threw to the short right area, and that predictability cost him through three quarters, half of Pryor's 18 pass attempts were in the short right zone, and he went 6-of-9 for 83 yards with a touchdown and three other first downs. In the fourth quarter, he threw six more passes to that region, going 3-of-6 for 29 yards with three first downs and two interceptions, including a pick-six.

31. TJ Yates: -118 pass DYAR

Guess what, Houston fans -- turns out Matt Schaub is your best option. Inside the Rams' red zone, Yates went 1-of-4 with a pick-six, another interception, and a sack. That one completion gained 3 yards on third-and-6.

Top 5 Running backs

1. Brandon Jacobs: 55 rush DYAR, -3 receiving DYAR=52 overall

Five of Jacobs' 22 carries were stuffed for no gain or a loss, but he had five gains of 10 yards or more, plus a pair of goal-to-go touchdowns. He also caught one pass in two targets for 8 yards.

2. Arian Foster: 50 rush DYAR, 2 receiving DYAR=52 overall

Five of Foster's 20 carries gained at least 10 yards, while only two lost yards. He also caught four passes in seven targets for 57 yards, including a 41-yarder.

3. LeSean McCoy: 18 rush DYAR, 32 receiving DYAR=50 overall

McCoy ranks this high despite losing a fumble on his first carry. He gained five first downs in 25 carries, and only failed to gain yardage three times. He was thrown two passes, catching both of them for gains of 44 and 11 yards.

4. Knowshon Moreno: 19 rush DYAR, 26 receiving DYAR=45 overall

Four of Moreno's 15 carries resulted in first downs, including three touchdowns inside the 10-yard line. The Broncos also threw him a whopping ten passes, resulting in seven catches for 62 yards and three first downs, including a conversion on third-and-20.

5. Andre Ellington: 38 rush DYAR, 4 receiving DYAR=42 overall

Ellington only had seven carries, but all of them gained at least four yards, and each was successful. Only 15 other runners had seven successful carries this week, and they each carried the ball at least 15 times. His longest run was a 15-yard touchdown. He also caught each of the five passes thrown his way for 36 yards and two first downs.

Worst RB: LeGarrette Blount: -22 rush DYAR, -5 receiving DYAR=-27 overall

Blount's median gain on seven carries was just 1 yard. He lost yardage twice and gained no first downs. The only pass thrown his way was also incomplete.

Top 5 WR/TE

1. Josh Gordon: 63 DYAR

Gordon also had one carry for no gain. Each of his seven catches gained at least 9 yards and a first down, including three third-down conversion in three chances.

2. Brandon Marshall: 60 DYAR

One of Marshall's catches lost a yard, but each of his others gained a first down. Both of his touchdowns came in the red zone.

3. Riley Cooper: 48 DYAR

Each of Cooper's catches gained at least 12 yards and a first down. He had two 40-yard plays, including a 47-yard score. Plus, you know, he's always willing to fight.

4. Marvin Jones: 48 DYAR

Jones only had three first downs on the day, but one was a 42-yard gain on second-and-15, and another was a 10-yard touchdown on third-and-8. He also had one run for 34 yards.

5. Vernon Davis: 45 DYAR

Davis' five first downs (including his two scores) averaged 32.4 yards.

Worst WR/TE: Donnie Avery: -40 DYAR

His two receptions: a 4-yard gain on second-and-6, and a 2-yard gain and lost fumble on first down in the red zone.

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NY Giants at Chicago

Cincinnati at Buffalo

Detroit at Cleveland

Oakland at Kansas City

Carolina at Minnesota x

Pittsburgh at NY Jets x

Philadelphia at Tampa Bay x

Green Bay at Baltimore

St. Louis at Houston x

Jacksonville at Denver

Tennessee at Seattle

Arizona at San Francisco

New Orleans at New England x

Washington at Dallas

Indianapolis at San Diego x

 

Ho hum.  9-6.  Poxy Chargers.

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THU, OCT 10

NY Giants at Chicago

 

SUN, OCT 13

Cincinnati at Buffalo 

Detroit at Cleveland 

Oakland at Kansas City 

Carolina at Minnesota 

Pittsburgh at NY Jets 

Philadelphia at Tampa 

Green Bay at Baltimore

St. Louis at Houston

 

Jacksonville at Denver 

Tennessee at Seattle

Arizona at San Francisco

New Orleans at New England 

Washington at Dallas

 

MON, OCT 14

Indianapolis at San Diego

 

 

10

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Flacco actually finished with better stats, yet was ranked lower than Rodgers. #confused

DYAR is fundamentally based on getting first downs (counting TDs as first downs: it is "goal to go") and also on the difficulty of getting a first down out of a given down and distance, adjusted for things like the the quality of the defense faced. I'd suspect that because the Packers defense is pretty dire (#25, according to the latest DVOA) while the Ravens defense is pretty good (#8), that Rodgers put up numbers (17-32, 315, 1 td, 1 int, 3 sacks, 2 fumbles (DYAR and DVOA consider all fumbles equally, regardless of who recovers them, for reasons too complicated to explain quickly), 9 first downs) that were close to Flacco (20-34, 342, 2 td, 4 sacks, 2 fumbles, 11 first downs) could allow one to say that he had a slightly better day than Flacco. Another consideration would be the down and distance of Flacco's throws: if on third downs, Flacco was converting shorter distances than Rodgers, then more of the Ravens' credit for getting the first down goes to the running game.

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Flacco actually finished with better stats, yet was ranked lower than Rodgers. #confused

more of the Ravens' credit for getting the first down goes to the running game.

 

Running.... game?

 

confused-george-bush.jpg

I haven't looked at the play-by-play... that was speculation that if Flacco's first downs were consistently in short yardage situations, some of the credit is going to running backs.

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Just looked at the play-by-play... Flacco's yardage is heavily padded by failed plays.

Every pass play in that game, for both teams:

Packers @ 15:00 in 1Q

1-10-BAL33: Rodgers pass for 6 yards (SUCCESS) (1/1)

2-4-BAL27: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (1/2)

3-4-BAL27: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (1/3)

Ravens @ 13:02 in 1Q

2-8-BAL34: Flacco pass for -2 yards (FAILURE) (0/1)

3-10-BAL32: Flacco sacked for -10 yards (FAILURE) (0/2)

Packers @ 11:07 in 1Q

2-8-GB36: Rodgers pass for 10 yards (SUCCESS) (2/4)

2-10-GB46: Rodgers sacked for -6 yards (FAILURE) (2/5)

3-16-GB40: Rodgers pass for 5 yards (FAILURE) (2/6)

Ravens @ 8:17 in 1Q

1-10-BAL20: Flacco pass for 11 yards (SUCCESS) (1/3)

2-10-BAL31: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (1/4)

3-10-BAL31: Flacco pass for 31 yards (SUCCESS) (2/5)

2-9-GB37: Flacco pass for 0 yards (FAILURE) (2/6)

3-9-GB37: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/7)

Packers @ 5:14 in 1Q

1-10-GB20: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/7)

2-10-GB20: Rodgers pass for 18 yards (SUCCESS) (3/8)

2-2-GB46: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (3/9)

3-2-GB46: Rodgers sacked for -6/fumbles (2x FAILURE) (3/11)

Ravens @ 3:26 in 1Q

2-13-BAL17: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/8)

3-13-BAL17: Flacco pass for 6 yards (FAILURE) (2/9)

Packers @ 1:52 in 1Q

2-8-GB32: Rodgers pass for 7 yards (SUCCESS) (4/12)

Ravens @ 14:45 in 2Q

1-10-BAL41: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/10)

2-25-BAL26: Flacco pass for 8 yards (FAILURE) (2/11)

3-17-BAL34: Flacco pass for 14 yards (FAILURE) (2/12)

Packers @ 12:57 in 2Q

2-5-GB11: Rodgers sacked for -5/fumbles (2x FAILURE) (4/14)

3-10-GB6: Rodgers pass for 13 yards (SUCCESS) (5/15)

1-10-GB19: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (5/16)

3-7-GB22: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (5/17)

Ravens @ 10:02 in 2Q

2-13-BAL30: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/13)

3-13-BAL30: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/14)

2-10-BAL41: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (2/15)

3-10-BAL41: Flacco pass for 45 yards (SUCCESS) (3/16)

Packers @ 5:16 in 2Q

2-10-GB1: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (5/18)

3-10-GB1: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (5/19)

Ravens @ 4:22 in 2Q

2-5-GB48: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (3/17)

3-5-GB48: Flacco sacked for -1 yards (FAILURE) (3/18)

Packers @ 3:10 in 2Q

1-10-GB12: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (5/20)

2-16-GB6: Rodgers pass for 7 yards (FAILURE) (5/21)

3-9-GB13: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (5/22)

Ravens @ 1:42 in 2Q

1-10-BAL31: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (3/19)

2-10-BAL31: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (3/20)

Packers @ 1:17 in 2Q

1-10-GB49: Rodgers pass for 34 yards (SUCCESS) (6/23)

1-10-BAL17: Rodgers pass for 1 yard (FAILURE) (6/24)

2-19-BAL26: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (6/25)

3-19-BAL26: Rodgers pass for 15 yards (SUCCESS) (7/26)

Ravens @ 0:20 in 2Q

1-10-BAL34: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (3/21)

2-10-BAL34: Flacco sacked for -1 yards/fumbles (2x FAILURE) (3/23)

Ravens @ 14:55 in 3Q

2-13-BAL13: Flacco pass for 6 yards (FAILURE) (3/24)

3-7-BAL19: Flacco sacked for -10 yards/fumbles (2x FAILURE) (3/26)

Packers @ 12:54 in 3Q

1-10-BAL34: Rodgers pass for 4 yards (FAILURE) (7/27)

3-4-BAL28: Rodgers pass intercepted; 8 yards (2x FAILURE) (7/29)

2-19-BAL26: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (6/25)

3-19-BAL26: Rodgers pass for 15 yards (SUCCESS) (7/26)

Ravens @ 0:20 in 2Q

1-10-BAL34: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (3/21)

2-10-BAL34: Flacco sacked for -1 yards/fumbles (2x FAILURE) (3/23)

Ravens @ 14:55 in 3Q

2-13-BAL13: Flacco pass for 6 yards (FAILURE) (3/24)

3-7-BAL19: Flacco sacked for -10 yards/fumbles (2x FAILURE) (3/26)

Packers @ 12:54 in 3Q

1-10-BAL34: Rodgers pass for 4 yards (FAILURE) (7/27)

3-4-BAL28: Rodgers pass intercepted; 8 yards (2x FAILURE) (7/29)

Ravens @ 11:27 in 3Q

3-15-BAL15: Flacco pass for 10 yards (FAILURE) (3/27)

Packers @ 9:10 in 3Q

2-8-GB32: Rodgers pass for 43 yards (SUCCESS) (8/30)

1-20-BAL35: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (8/31)

3-17-BAL32: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (8/32)

Ravens @ 5:58 in 3Q

1-10-BAL35: Flacco pass for 59 yards (SUCCESS) (4/28)

1-6-GB6: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (4/29)

2-6-GB6: Flacco pass for 1 yard (FAILURE) (4/30)

3-5-GB5: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (4/31)

Packers @ 4:34 in 3Q

1-10-GB36: Rodgers pass for 64 yards/TD (2x SUCCESS) (10/34)

Ravens @ 2:12 in 3Q

1-10-BAL20: Flacco pass for 12 yards (SUCCESS) (5/32)

1-10-GB39: Flacco pass for 11 yards (SUCCESS) (6/33)

2-4-GB22: Flacco pass for 12 yards (SUCCESS) (7/34)

2-11-GB11: Flacco pass for 11 yards/TD (2x SUCCESS) (9/36)

Packers @ 11:46 in 4Q

2-9-GB17: Rodgers pass for 8 yards (SUCCESS) (11/35)

3-1-GB25: Rodgers pass for 9 yards (SUCCESS) (12/36)

1-10-BAL38: Rodgers pass for 19 yards (SUCCESS) (13/37)

3-3-BAL12: Rodgers pass incomplete (FAILURE) (13/38)

Ravens @ 4:13 in 4Q

1-10-BAL10: Flacco pass for 20 yards (SUCCESS) (10/37)

1-10-BAL30: Flacco pass incomplete (FAILURE) (10/38)

2-10-BAL30: Flacco sacked for -7 yards (FAILURE) (10/39)

3-27-BAL13: Flacco pass for 6 yards (FAILURE) (10/40)

4-21-BAL19: Flacco pass for 63 yards (SUCCESS) (11/41)

1-10-GB18: Flacco pass for 18 yards/TD (2x SUCCESS) (13/43)

Packers @ 2:04 in 4Q

3-3-GB27: Rodgers pass for 52 yards (SUCCESS) (14/39)

Rodgers: 14 successful pass plays, 315 yds total (17 yds on failed plays), 1 td/1 int

Flacco: 13 successful pass plays, 342 yds total (49 yds on failed plays), 2 td/0 int

14/39 = 35.9% success rate

13/43 = 30.2% success rate

A QB with a 40% success rate is having a good game

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