blandy

It must have been when Corbyn said "feck Business" ...oh....was it not him? oh, Johnson said it... Well, I expect it must have been just high spirits. Jolly good sorts the tories.

because it's sums up Labour's chances But there is shenanigans between the Local Labour lot wanting one thing and the Corbyns over-ruling them and trying to impose someone else.

You won't It just surprised me that it was so few people. Oh and It's OK Tone, you know I don't take anything you say seriously

You're right, sorry. It's the other way round. The locals want her, Corbyn's cabal doesn't.

It can indeed make a fatboy slim now The funk soul brother Right about now The funk soul brother Check it out now The funk soul brother

There's a massive, er, few hundred people work in coal mining in the UK according to mooneying it https://www.google.co.uk/search?q=how many people work in coal mining UK&cad=h

Wonder if they've realised that parachuting in one of Corbyn's London cabal was a bit of a dim move, given what you say?

Indeed. Good point. I wonder how many people will go "not making that mistake again"? I suspect it might be rather a large number.

Fair comment. Many people will take the view that now is exactly the time to show their dissatisfaction with the major parties, and as a consequence there's likely to be some major shifts in results in seats. They'll do that because "the current parties haven't got Brexit done", they'll do it because the current lot have turned everything to shit, they'll do it because Climate Emergency,, they'll do it because Scotland / NI/ Wales is geting a raw deal and so on. I believe that in many seats, the old "vote for whoever came second to the tories last time" to get them out is yesterday's advice that doesn't fit today's situation.

Biased Tory BBC you say?

More of this sort of thing. p.s. isn't she supposed to be a raving biased tory according to the angry #JC4PM tramps?

Laid into the tories though in the intro. Not seen the rest

Labour is a party led by a leaver, but the rest of it, more or less is remain. Their policy is to negotiate a Brexit, but not a Tory one. They most definitely are not a remain party. SNP, Lib Dem, Green, Plaid, Sinn Fein are all remain.

Possibly I am. I was thinking of a (say) normally Labour voter who prefers them to the LDs so votes against her conscience (as I see it) to defeat or at least reject Brexit, even though she may prefer Labour's policies in other areas. I suppose it depends which bit of conscience is to the fore.

That's absolutely right. Yet, maybe the EU would accept re-opening it all up again. Maybe they wouldn't. It's not up to (future) Labour, it's not in their gift.

You might be right, HV, more likely than not, but then again maybe it's not certain. Starting from absolute scratch it's a clean (theoretical) slate. The likelihood from the past and from current polls is a hung parliament or a Tory win. If there's to be a hung parliament, then who knows the make up - maybe Labour more seats in a minority, maybe tories, maybe SNP +LDs + Plaid might have well over 120 and have serious sway on some issues where Labour doesn't have similar policies. If someone believes any Brexit makes us worse than now, then Labour's plan to negotiate a Labour Brexit is not a goer at all. Brexity MPs are therefore the first thing to get rid of. If a Tory or Labour Brexity MP gets in makes no difference in that (single, dominant) regard. Flint is an ersatz tory in that respect. Corbyn says he'll negotiate a Brexit. She'll vote for it. Rather a LD than either a tory or her. I guess she'll get in again. Remainers there have no choice, if that's their dominant wish to remain. So they should vote LD and hope that Brexity throbbers split between tory and BNP and LDs come through the middle. Unlikely, but the only step available, really. They could hope part c of Labour's convoluted plan comes to pass, but it's a very long shot - Labour gets in as a majority, then negotiates a new Brexit, then approves of it at their conference and then decides to recommend remain in another referendum, then the referendum results in a remain result. Better outcome perhaps is hung parliament, Corbyn effs off back to his potting shed, someone sane takes over their leadership and works cross party with the LDs and SNP to revoke or straight to a ref.

Ah, I missed that subtlety, sorry. The chart shows what I kind of felt - Labour getting a lot of drift away to the LDs (and greens to an extent). Tories getting more to the BNPs. Not a surprise or any skill on my part as this has been the reported suggestion for a while, but it's good to see data.

No, I completely disagree with your comment here. Flint has rebelled against Labour whip and voted "tory Brexit" repeatedly. SHe might as well be a Tory from that perspective. She'll presumably continue to do so in the event of another Hung Parliament, which is the most likely outcome. So absolutely (if you're a remainer) vote LD and get shot of her tory Brexiting MP. Respect your point of view on the rest of it, too, though I don't copmpletely share it. If you're someone looking to find out "who should I vote for in my area to best stop brexit, these tools are the best guide available. The analysis of their logic and record as per the twits stands up. I also think "vote Labour" which is a Brexit party is not the best move to stop Brexit.

I was thinking of the various reported Labour polling, post Ref polling and surveys - a summary here Yougov detail here

Yeah. What it does is suggest that the modelling and "advice" they give/gave is/has been "fair" and as accurate as is possible - it's not slanted to favour Labour or Libs etc. As the data is updated, the predictive element may come up with a diffeent recommendation, but your comment that "don't use these tools" isn't really supported by the analysis which suggests, if you want to find a recommendation, the toll(s) are as fair(unbiased) and accurate as is possible.

If we're not at cross-purposes, then yes. And it's widely available My point is that according to available data (from memory) something like 65-70% of labour voters voted remain. Something like <20% of Tory voters voted remain. Therefore (and consistent with the stats argument above) drift from Labour to Lib Dem will be much more significant than from Tory to Lib Dem.

There's a take on it in this twit thread which says it's pretty decent

Ta. On the twitter thread above the same statistical argument/factors, but in the reverse direction applies to Labour and Cons switching to LDs, I believe. It is likely that remain Labour migration to LD will in some seats outnumber remain tory to LD, particularly in that there down south, and that this will lead to some pretty large swings but tight results in previously safe-ish Tory seats - Like Johnson's for example. I know the Europ elections are not a reliable guide for a GE, but what happened there, even if it is to a notable lesser extent could still see big gains for LDs and BNPs and Labour and the Tories getting walloped in some places where they didn't expect to. I suspect also that the credibility of all the leaders is going to take a pasting in this election. People don't trust any of them and revelations and propoganda efforts are likely to make that situation worse.

What analysis have you seen, Darren? to help with understanding. Thansk.