chrissmith921

A lot of the backrow problem stems (in my opinion) from England sticking to this bludgeoning heavyweight ideal they have - Ben Morgan, Billy Vunipola (although I think he's a cracking player), James Haskell, Tom Wood - big blokes who add very little mobility. Sees Robshaw (who really in modern game should have a 6 or 8 on his back) trying to compete with faster guys who are usually hunting in packs. Heavyweight backrows are a thing of the past now - you don't need to be the size that someone like Haskell is - he's an absolute machine, granted, but limited in what he offers because he only has that strength. I think Wales and Australia are blessed to have the backrows they have - the rumoured one Wales are putting out on the weekend (6 Warburton, 7 Tipuric, 8 Falatau) is a fantastic combination - but no monsters in there... I think the direction and mould of whats viewed as an ideal bodyshape for a backrow player is skewed in England, partly due to sticking to what got the success in 2003-7, big heavy blokes.

The big thing of playing in Cardiff - the agreement was for 2 Wales fixtures - the then CEO of WRU Roger Lewis asked for the England game to be played there(!!!!) There's more likely Kelly Brook accepting my offer of an evening of filth than that ever going through. I think that's why Australia game is being played at Twickenham rather than the Uruguay one. Also remember - from a World Rugby perspective, they know they can sell the ground out at the extortionate price - so do it.

Didn't we play at Twickenham for each of the group games in '99? Exactly it.

Financially the regions are on the edge but all part owned by WRU. The WRU bails them out - the hundreds of clubs I spoke of - pay fees to the WRU and in turn provide players to regions. WRU have the Millennium Stadium of course - and that thing earns them millions. Wales rarely fail to sell out - tickets are 80 notes at least. Debentures are 12grand for 10 years. The money rolling through is good. Regionally not so but while the central contracts are here thats no issue. In terms of player development - take Matthew Morgan. He was developed by Bridgend Athletic - a div 1 side at seniors - signed by Ospreys at 16 and sent to Bridgend RFC (Athletic earn fee now) - plays LV Cup for Ospreys before signing for Bristol. Hes capped by Wales - Bridgend Ath get a fee. While rugby remains part of welsh makeup this will work. Was suggestion Swansea and Cardiff city football clubs may impact this - but shared facilities at youth level seems to drive the rugby forward too

It isn't stubbornness, is it? It's a policy decision with the intention of minimizing negative effects upon the English leagues of any mass exodus of players to overseas rugby (especially France at the moment). Whether or not it is the right policy decision is arguable (I think it can go either way though one won't be able to judge for some time yet) but it really shouldn't be looked at in terms that are being discussed (stubbornness/spite and so on). The people who made the call did it on the basis that they believed the long term effect on English rugby (mainly club rugby but also the international side, I guess) of not having in place would be more deleterious than having it in place. From what I gather, Welsh club rugby isn't in the rudest of health (though Mr Smith will have a more informed opinion than mine, no doubt) no matter how well the players at the top are performing and surely that kind of thing will feed through at some point? Also need to understand how Welsh Rugby is setup in terms of development. These guys are known about at 15/16 that they're going to be a talent - and then they're put to Welsh Premiership to compete against retiring top players and then others who didn't quite make it (but still very good players). There's also a HUGE number of clubs in Wales. I've played for at least 17 clubs myself - there's hundreds of teams. A lot with youth, junior sections. There aren't many blokes who've been raised in Wales who haven't played Rugby - and I hear of it all of the time - there's always people in my village talking of a star 9 year old playing for some team etc - there's teams everywhere and word spreads very quickly of talented players - they get hoovered up by their regional club and they're in the system. I think Cardiff Blues alone have around 30 youth teams of differing ages and 'areas' - they do the same as football - bring in 1000s of kids, keep the very very very best. The rest then end up playing through the system like I have

It isn't stubbornness, is it? It's a policy decision with the intention of minimizing negative effects upon the English leagues of any mass exodus of players to overseas rugby (especially France at the moment). Whether or not it is the right policy decision is arguable (I think it can go either way though one won't be able to judge for some time yet) but it really shouldn't be looked at in terms that are being discussed (stubbornness/spite and so on). The people who made the call did it on the basis that they believed the long term effect on English rugby (mainly club rugby but also the international side, I guess) of not having in place would be more deleterious than having it in place. From what I gather, Welsh club rugby isn't in the rudest of health (though Mr Smith will have a more informed opinion than mine, no doubt) no matter how well the players at the top are performing and surely that kind of thing will feed through at some point? Our club rugby is in tatters. The regions report 10,000+ attendances - they aren't. They never threaten the later stages of Europe and now (Ospreys aside - ignore this season as they've provided 23 players to the World cup) not even threatening in the Pro 12. Is that a problem? For the Ospreys it is, Blues, NGD and Scarlets it is. Wales? Absolutely not. As I see it (and it appears to mirror the view of the WRU) - if a player is playing in England, France etc - he needs to be playing well. Gatland won't go to watch them in the South of France so they need to make sure they're performing. Second, all of our guys getting game time outside of Wales - means less game time for one of our 6 Nations rivals players. Whether its England or France - North is stopping an English 13/14 starting for Northampton, Roberts will stop a 12 coming through at Quins, Jon Davies a 13 in Clermont etc. Finally - the important part for me - the gaps they leave at Welsh Regional - are now being filled by young Welsh players. There's the odd expensive outsider like Josh Matevesi but Ben John wouldn't get game time if Hook was still an Osprey, Corey Allen wouldn't have time if Roberts still at Blues and so forth - its a triple edged sword and ultimately the drive is on the player to ensure his performance levels are good enough to keep people in Wales remembering him. Lots of others have gone and are forgotten - because they've not kept their standards up - Welsh Rugby is extremely inward looking - so its an extra requirement for the exiles to keep their levels up. I think this is part of why Falatau hasn't signed for Bath.

I think use them only to separate teams on the same number of points (from wins, draws only) - I don't think you should be allowed to finish 2nd because you didn't lose as badly as another team.

In terms of England going out - I'm pleased Wales have gone through, have ribbed a few on it too - but nothing more than we'd get in return. England need to scrap that no overseas rule immediately though - as all they produce in the Premiership is the same big forwards, rugby league esque backs. If they don't do that, then they should ringfence the league - as the top clubs will always buy in players - the clubs lower down will actually produce the x factor players that can make a difference or give a plan B. Also need to remember that Englands players tend to come from the same backgrounds - Milfield College for example - whenever I played against them they were cracking players, but soft as shite. If we played straight up rugby against them, they'd beat us every day of the week - but get in their face, or turn it into a battle - then we'd win. I faced them must be 20 times during school years - and never, ever, ever did they have a 'natural' 7 - a player every welsh school and club has - a dirty cheating bastard who will do what they have to do - perhaps, and I'm generalising here - the colleges and schools that are developing these players, are taking in great athletes, but who are a bit soft and a bit nice - you need the cheating bastards to win these games. England don't have them.

Bang on the money. Rob Andrew, RFU policy on not picking foreign based players, and Andy Farrell are the problems for England. Lancaster (looking from this side of the bridge) knows what he's doing, remove the above 3 factors and England will win 2019.

hes a winner. that's pretty much it. would sell his own grandmother for it - one of those types. actually a tidy bloke when I've spoke to him around - and theres a lot of rugby players that certainly aren't!

It'll be a lot clearer after tonight, if Wales get full 5 points, they're just a losing bonus point from qualification, provided Aus don't rack up 4 tries beating Wales, and THEN it gets complicated.

I see it that this week: Wales 5 points v Fiji --> 14 overall Eng 4 points v Oz --> 10 overall Aus 1 point v Eng --> 10 overall Next: Wales 1 v Aus --> 15 Eng 5 v Aus --> 15 Aus 4 v Wales --> 14 Apologies - I've run through it too many times. That would put Wales top of the group on H2H - Eng 2nd. That's what I was meaning - I've been through about 349238942389489 scenarios but (tonight waiting) that looks *most* likely to happen.

Robshaw vs Pocock and Hooper - that's not fair on the man... The scrum will be under scrutiny following Kaplans tweets all week about Marler boring-in, so there's that to deal with too. I have Eng 23-18 Australia, purely on the basis that Australia haven't been kicking their goals with much regularity, and England can keep the scoreboard ticking, but if Wales get a 5 pointer tonight, the pressure is huge because even with a win, Wales would only need a losing bonus point to put England out.

Indeed. Hello

Fiji are without quite a few of their front line players for this - although Josh Matevesi not getting a start is a bit odd! Think Wales will get the bonus point now - no Matawalu and no Nadolo should (famous last words!) mean Lydiate is chopping down that second row before his off-load game rolls up and I hope they don't get the continuity to damage us. A test of our lineout and scrum though, which creaked (!) Saturday... although don't see their Loose Head burrowing in at 90 degrees.

I was glad when Slade wasn't picked for Saturday - would have been the natural fit for JJ who looks the best 13 since Greenwood for your lot. Anyway - 3 Wales changes for Fiji game, Matthew Morgan comes in at full back (love this guy when he's in possession), Tyler Morgan at 13 and Cuthbert at 14. So... Wales: M Morgan; A Cuthbert, T Morgan, J Roberts, G North; D Biggar, G Davies; G Jenkins, S Baldwin, T Francis; B Davies, AW Jones; D Lydiate, S Warburton, T Faletau. Reps: K Owens, A Jarvis, S Lee, L Charteris, J Tipuric, Ll Williams, R Priestland, J Hook.

my only thought is he's had the order from above - the money the RFU have spent to bring him* over. Wales bring in James Hook and Gareth Anscombe to replace Scott Williams and Hallam Amos respectively. Expecting Hook to start 13 on Thursday, Priestland 15 and Cuthbert 14, with the rest of the side the same that started Saturday. *edit - him = Burgess

A big worry is that they do pick an unfit Joseph and that he comes off after about twenty minutes with a recurrence of the injury. I know it would be a very tough ask for Slade to play but if he's not an option why did we bother picking him in the squad ahead of Burrell? I hope I'm wrong but I think they may go again with Farrell - Burgess - Barritt on the basis that the win is the only thing and they'll want to keep it as tight as possible. IMO Australia are going to win the whole thing - considering that, I cant see how England can afford to keep the same against them. Giteau isn't going to go charging at Burgess as Roberts did, he's going to stand off and put players in, given the inexperience of Burgess there in this sport full stop - it would be a mistake imo. Imagine Folau going full tilt against Anthony Watson? I think its time to go big or go home - Ford 10, Farrell 12, Joseph 13 with a 4-4 split on the bench. I'd hope Youngs is fit, because Wigglesworth is terrible. For what its worth, I'm hoping for Wales top, England 2nd - rather us northern hemisphere through than the Aussies!

@‌chris73sww

I remember seeing Biggar kick a conversion from the touchline to win the Pro 12, in Leinster, in the 81st minute - that game (iirc it was Shane Williams' last for the Ospreys) Biggar was the star of the show - he's a big game player who performs. Burgess was never going to last the full 80 - there was plenty of debate this side of the bridge about Tipuric not starting, Bradley Davies starting ahead of Charteris etc but everyone knew what England were bringing to the plate - and Gatland called it to a tee. Had the ref not allowed Marler to burrow in, or yellowed one of Englands many many 'off the feet' penalties - I think it would have been different. Very impressed with Farrell - he's never really played well against Wales previously - superb on the weekend, just behind Biggar and Falatau for man of the match for me. Don't think he missed any of his own tackles, and I count just 2 of his covering tackles he missed - v Scott Williams in first half after Burgess and Barritt were staring down Roberts, and v North when he broke away after the kick off leading to Mike Brown conceding the penalty on the half way. Really good performance by Farrell - maybe him at 12 and Joseph (even if half fit) for effectively a knock-out game v Australia on Saturday?

The closest he got to Scott Williams all night was when Burgess was subbed off and Scott Williams was in the ambulance! He stopped Roberts but no way would he last the full 80 and the second he went off Roberts bullied Ford for the remaining 20 minutes. Lancaster's going to lose his job for that decision - Wales are weak outside defensively, always have been under Gatland - but our back row, 9,10,12 will tackle everything so what does Lancaster do? Plays two backrowers in the centres as he's terrified of Roberts... People have questioned Biggar before - if they still do they're muppets. The best 10 in Britain and Ireland by a mile - none of the others have the big game temperament that he does. England played well, and admire the go-for-it-all late on - but 3 things: a) Scrum was dominant, why go for LO when could tie up Falatau, Tipuric and Warburton? b - when hitting lineout, why go front!? c) Charteris is unreal at stopping rolling mauls - why throw where he's stood waiting? Lancaster will lose his job on that.

horrid angles when players don't run straight at him. will be an open gate at 12 if Dan Biggar/Jamie Roberts are Wales' 10/12 set - look at how easily Nadolo beat him - everyone elses shoulders are parallel - his are at 45 degrees. See this a lot with converts from league - to call him awesome is a bit odd, 4 knock-ons in 20 minutes is an improvement on the 8 in 29 he put against Ireland a few weeks ago.... Well I guess I'm "odd" then. I hate that description of other people's opinions. But then you do sound like an expert who clearly knows better than everyone else... Are you Welsh by any chance? yep - but to say hes awesome is odd - whichever way you want it taken - that final 15 minutes was turned up by Vunipola - Burgess was average, and given Englands pack up front has hardly been dominant (although I think they'll have the upper hand on Saturday) - you don't really want a centre who can't hold onto the ball when he gets hit. But yes, he's great because he smashed Irelands backup in a friendly? :-/

horrid angles when players don't run straight at him. will be an open gate at 12 if Dan Biggar/Jamie Roberts are Wales' 10/12 set - look at how easily Nadolo beat him - everyone elses shoulders are parallel - his are at 45 degrees. See this a lot with converts from league - to call him awesome is a bit odd, 4 knock-ons in 20 minutes is an improvement on the 8 in 29 he put against Ireland a few weeks ago....

He'll score tomorrow. Quote me.

Play him. We have a weekend off now for internationals. Biased as I actually want to watch us attack with some quality on a rare visit tomorrow :|