St. Gallen to win +155: 5 units
St. Gallen DNB -130: risk 9 units to win 6.92
Esbjerg +1 +105: 5 units
Slovan Liberec +0.5 +107: 7 units
Rijeka +0.5 +117: 7 units
Sheriff Tiraspol DNB +105: 7 units
Tromso +2.5 -105: risk 8 units to win 7.61
Shakhter Karagandy +1.5 -130: risk 6 units to win 4.61
Moncao +0.5 +115: 10 units
Vitoria Guimaraes to win +550: 6 units
Getafe +2.5 -103: risk 6 units to win 5.82
Sevilla DNB +162: 5 units
Trabzonspor to win +175: 8 units
Zorya/Chornomorets Draw +230: 7 units
Spurs DNB -180: risk 8 units to win 4.44
West Ham DNB -180: risk 7 units to win 3.88
Evian +1 -115: risk 5 units to win 4.34
Atletico Madrid to win -450: risk 9 units to win 2.00
Atletico Madrid -2 +110: 8 units
Real Sociedad +2.5 +100: 10 units
Levante DNB -175: risk 13 units to win 7.42
Amkar Perm DNB -175: risk 6 units to win 3.42
Betis to win +295: 7 units
Betis DNB +189: 11 units
Celta de Vigo DNB +155: 6 units
Espanyol +1 -150: risk 10 units to win 6.66
Hull +1 -105: risk 6 units to win 5.71
Southampton +1 -125: risk 8 units to win 6.40
WBA DNB +120: 6 units
Heerenveen DNB -135: risk 7 units to win 5.18
Atletico Madrid DNB -275: risk 7 units to win 2.54
Shakhtar Donetsk to win +250: 5 units
Olympiacos to win +275: 6 units
Olympiacos +0.5 -135: risk 9 units to win 6.66
CSKA Moscow +2 -105: risk 12 units to win 11.42
Viktoria Plzen to win +367: 5 units
Dead cats apparently have a reputation for bouncing.
The relevance to Villa after a home loss to Watford may not be clear, but it is perhaps in that light that one should consider this fact:
Villa's chances of staying up improved despite a home loss to Watford. Whether the change was major (it more than doubled!) or minor (the difference was 0.3%) is a question of the observer's perspective, but the fact remains: the club are in a slightly better place today than last week.
Crazy, huh? Of course, our chances of finishing rock bottom increased as well:
16th
0.1%
+0.1%
17th
0.4%
+0.2%
18th
1.3%
-0.8%
19th
6.1%
-4.1%
20th
92.1%
+4.6%
One [possible] reason for this phenomenon: the clubs immediately above us are close enough in goal difference that nearly any scenario where we finish level with them sees us with a better goal difference.
Villa: 99.5% (-0.3%)
Sunderland: 67.6% (-22.2%)
Bournemouth: 66.1% (-13.5%)
Newcastle: 48.6% (+30.6%)
Swansea: 13.7% (+9.7%)
Norwich: 3.3% (-5.2%)
Chelsea: 1.0% (+0.7%)
West Brom: 0.1% (unchanged), Stoke: 0.1% (+0.1%)
I want things to be stable, but not this kind of stable...
The good: Losing 4-0 to Everton didn't really hurt us.
The bad: It definitely didn't help us.
Our relgation chances stay the same, though the chances of finishing bottom increase somewhat.
17th 0.2% unchanged18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.2% -7.5%20th 87.5% +8.9% Median, most likelyVilla: 99.8% (unchanged)
Sunderland: 89.8% (-6.2%)
Bournemouth: 79.6% (-3.0%)
Newcastle: 18.0% (+11.8%)
Norwich: 8.5% (+3.2%)
Swansea: 4.0% (+0.5%)
Chelsea: 0.3% (-1.6%)
West Brom: 0.1% (-3.8%)
Getting a draw against the league leaders was not enough to dramatically improve the Monte Carlo's estimations, but it didn't dramatically hurt things (not that things could have gotten much worse). This is not really a cause for pressing the panic button. The Monte Carlo's assessment is now just about solely based on the period when you could fairly say that other sides figured out Sherwood. Assuming that the level of performance Remi Garde brought out of the team is the new normal, as some of the worse performances under Sherwood "age out", the story of the next few rounds of Monte Carlos will be steady improvement.
There was still improvement, in some sense, in the Monte Carlo's assessment: our chances of rock-bottom decreased!
17th 0.2% -0.1%18th 3.5% +1.4%19th 17.7% +6.9%^^^ upper quartile20th 78.6% -8.1% median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.8% (+0.2%)
Sunderland: 96.0% (+11.1%)
Bournemouth: 82.6% (+14.9%)
Newcastle: 6.2% (-8.3%)
Norwich: 5.3% (-20.6%)
WBA: 3.9% (+0.6%)
Swansea: 3.5% (+3.0%)
Chelsea: 1.9% (unchanged)
Liverpool: 0.8% (-1.0%)
These numbers assume no dramatic improvement in quality of play (including, for instance, tactics), nor any new manager bounce. Additionally, as can be seen in the recent yo-yoing of the Tyne & Wear clubs' chances, it only takes one sufficiently good result to cause things to look (at least for a time) a lot brighter.
16th 0.1% -0.3%17th 0.3% -0.9%18th 2.1% -1.4%19th 10.8% -0.6%20th 86.7% +3.2% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 99.6% (+1.3%)
Sunderland: 84.9% (+26.3%)
Bournemouth: 67.7% (+12.8%)
Norwich: 25.9% (+0.2%)
Newcastle: 14.5% (-27.0%)
WBA: 3.3% (+0.3%)
Chelsea: 1.9% (+0.8%)
Liverpool: 1.8% (-11.9%)
Swansea: 0.5% (+0.3%)
The Monte Carlo results as of 30 October. The current results, Round 11, will follow in another post soon.
15th 0.1% -0.3%16th 0.4% -0.8%17th 1.2% -2.3%18th 3.5% -8.6%19th 11.4% -18.6%20th 83.4% +30.9% Median, maximum likelihoodVilla: 98.3%
Sunderland: 58.6%
Bournemouth: 53.9%
Newcastle: 41.5%
Norwich: 25.7%
Liverpool: 13.7%
Watford: 3.5%
WBA: 3.0%
Chelsea: 1.1%
Everton: 0.4%
Swansea: 0.2%
Stoke: 0.1%
13th 0.1% -1.1%
14th 0.2% -2.2%
15th 0.4% -3.9%
16th 1.2% -5.7%
17th 3.5% -6.7%
18th 12.1% -2.7%
^^^ upper quartile
19th 30.0% +7.7%
20th 52.5% +15.6% Median, maximum likelihood
Barring major change, I think we're nailed-on for rock-bottom.
Aston Villa: 94.6% chance of relegation
Sunderland: 90.8%
Bournemouth: 68.2%
Norwich: 16.7%
Watford: 10.1%
West Brom: 8.5%
Liverpool: 7.5%
Newcastle: 3.3%
Swansea, Stoke: 0.1%
Of course, it only takes one emphatic win to change the assessment, as Newcastle ably prove, but do we honestly see that sort of result coming from this incarnation of Villa?
It's not looking great at Villa Park, is it? 9th0.1%10th0.1%11th0.3%12th0.5%13th1.0%14th1.6%15th2.8%16th5.0%17th8.9%^^^ upper quartile18th16.2%19th27.2%median, maximum likelihoodvvv lower quartile20th36.3%I suspect that this is the most pessimistic Monte Carlo run I've ever had; right after our loss to Hull last season, our relegation probability was only around 65%. The "maximum likelihood" refers to our finish in the table that came up the most often. Relegation chances: Sunderland: 84.0% Villa: 79.7% Bournemouth: 55.0% Newcastle: 29.8% Liverpool: 19.8% Watford: 10.8% West Brom: 7.6% Swansea: 6.5% Norwich: 4.0% Palace: 1.5% West Ham: 0.8% Stoke, Southampton, Everton, Chelsea, Arsenal: 0.1% This is the first run of the simulation with no results from last season. Of course, last season, Leicester were projecting to a higher chance of going down than we currently project to, so...