leviramsey Posted December 14, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted December 14, 2012 Who would you call elite? Using the FO DYAR metric, which tries to figure out how much better a QB is as a passer than a replacement level QB (this season, Christian Ponder is playing marginally above replacement level and Michael Vick is playing marginally below replacement level). Among other things, this rewards the QB for drawing PI calls, penalizes for interceptions and fumbles and compensates for quality of defenses faced. It heavily values completing passes for first downs (indeed a pass on third down for less than the yards to gain is considered to be worth no yards and will probably result in negative yards after adjusting for the defense). To pick a round number, I'm calling elite-level passing 1000 DYAR, and only considering 2006 on (with 2012 numbers extended from 13 to 16 games). This doesn't really attempt to separate out QB play from WR play (it's perhaps noteworthy that Brady's only qualifying non-elite season was pre-Welker). 100 pass attempts per season is required for a season to qualify. 3 points for elite-level passing, 1 point for finishing in the top 12 (likely playoff-quality, barring a particularly bad running game or defense/special teams). [table] [/table] (any QB not listed has zero points) I'd set the cutoff for elite at 75%, so my list of elite QBs is: Brees, Peyton, Brady, Rodgers, Ryan EDIT'd to fix the table formatting... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 I was going to say the top 4 anyway before I read that list . I wouldn't include Ryan though as I want my list to be a little more elite than yours Levi . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 14, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 14, 2012 Ryan is the best QB in the league who's still waiting for a playoff win, that's for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 How long before someone says Eli ? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
maqroll Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 Top 5 plus Eli 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted December 14, 2012 Share Posted December 14, 2012 The rape-a-tron would make the list before Eli. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted December 15, 2012 Share Posted December 15, 2012 Eli, Brady, Brees, Rodgers, Peyton. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Clutch statistics are what this discussion needs. This was all before this season: This is How Clutch Eli is... Osi Osi Osi OyOyOy : 9/7/2012 2:07 pm Since 2007, Eli ranks 15th in the NFL in Passer Rating among the 40 QBs who have attempted 800 passes. His Passer Rating is at 86.4 over these past 5 seasons (not including the playoffs). But Eli also leads the NFL with 17 4th Quarter Comebacks and 20 Game Winning Drives over this period. He has simply been ice when it matters. This is a post about how the Top QBs in the league fare in Clutch situations. You can come up with a ton of different types of definitions for "clutch". But for the purposes of this thread, I'm talking about late and close game situations when it is a do or die spot for the offense. The QB has the ball, and his team is either tied or trailing by 8 or less with less than 5 minutes left to play in the 4th/OT. So this is basically about how well a QB does in last chance Game Tying/Game Winning Drive scenarios. This is how the Top 20 QBs in terms of Passer Rating did in the Clutch situation I just described from '07-'11 (including playoffs to use a larger sample size)... Code: 2007-2011: QB ---------- QBR ------- Clutch -------- Diff Brady ------- 107.3 ------ 81.9 -------- -25.4 Rodgers ----- 105.0 ------ 76.8 -------- -28.2 Brees ------- 98.9 ------- 85.0 -------- -13.9 Romo -------- 97.2 ------- 81.1 -------- -16.1 Rivers ------ 96.5 ------- 61.7 -------- -34.8 Peyton ------ 96.0 ------- 86.1 -------- -9.9 BigBen ------ 94.0 ------- 85.7 -------- -8.3 Schaub ------ 94.0 ------- 83.6 -------- -10.4 Warner ------ 93.6 ------- 98.8 -------- 5.2 Vick -------- 92.1 ------- 47.3 -------- -44.8 Pennington -- 91.8 ------- 49.7 -------- -42.3 Favre ------- 90.2 ------- 72.3 -------- -17.9 Ryan -------- 88.4 ------- 68.2 -------- -20.2 Garrard ----- 88.0 ------- 78.1 -------- -9.9 Eli --------- 86.4 ------- 106.5 ------- 20.1 McNabb ------ 86.2 ------- 67.1 -------- -19.1 Flacco ------ 86.0 ------- 49.0 -------- -37.0 Hill -------- 84.7 ------- 78.1 -------- -6.6 Stafford ---- 84.7 ------- 81.4 -------- -3.3 Cutler ------ 84.3 ------- 76.1 -------- -8.2 NFL AVG ----- 81.7 ------- 66.4 -------- -15.3 I think that chart basically explains it all when it comes to Eli. 15th in QB Rating over the course of an entire game, 1st in QB Rating by a mile with the game on the line. And it's not about how he's 1st in QBRating, it's about how his QB Rating increases substantially in a situation where everyone else's QB Rating tends to plummet. Kurt Warner is the only other QB on this list who has a higher rating in the clutch situations than overall, but Warner has one of the smaller sample sizes in the clutch (62 attempts) of everyone on the list. Eli is 10th with 110 attempts, so he has a much larger sample size. And I have no problem giving Warner credit either way, but his QB Rating in the clutch is basically in the same range as his QB Rating normally is. Eli is the only QB who completely raises his game to another level when the game is on the line. http://corner.bigblu...2&thread=451708 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brumerican Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 Clutching at straws more like. The game is 4 quarters not the last 3 minutes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 16, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'd rather have a QB who doesn't get into many clutch situations. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 I'd rather have a QB who doesn't get into many clutch situations. Eli has to play D as well then? The game is 4 quarters not the last 3 minutes. Well by that logic, it's about winning the Super Bowl. Eli's done it multiple times, which I believe only 2 other current QBs have done (Eli's done it with a far inferior team too). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 16, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 16, 2012 The Giants defense, especially with that line, is pretty damn good, especially considering the short fields they have to work with when Eli is in interception machine mode. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claret75 Posted December 16, 2012 Share Posted December 16, 2012 You forgot Kirk Cousins...2 games...elite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The Giants defense, especially with that line, is pretty damn good, especially considering the short fields they have to work with when Eli is in interception machine mode. 18-1! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted December 17, 2012 Author VT Supporter Share Posted December 17, 2012 I suspect that if those stats were updated after @ Atlanta, the all snaps QB rating would be lower, but since there were no clutch snaps, the clutch QB rating wouldn't change. So are you prepared to argue that Eli is more elite today than he was on Saturday? If Eli had a season of sixteen performances like that, the difference between his clutch rating and overall rating would be massive, so would you be talking about Eli as the greatest ever? That stat makes the case against Eli more than it makes the case for. What it says is that Eli is not consistent enough to win consistently. The good Eli is the best QB in the league, but the bad Eli is not much better than Gabbert or Ponder, and the bad Eli is good for more or less singlehandedly losing a couple of games a year and those losses have to cancel out some of the wins. (The Giants tendency to be streaky is imo related to this). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 The bad Peyton/Brees/Brady isn't much better than Ponder either. I agree the Giants are streaky, which isn't a bad thing, it's won us the big game twice recently! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted December 17, 2012 Share Posted December 17, 2012 That stat makes the case against Eli more than it makes the case for. What it says is that Eli is not consistent enough to win consistently. The good Eli is the best QB in the league, but the bad Eli is not much better than Gabbert or Ponder, and the bad Eli is good for more or less singlehandedly losing a couple of games a year and those losses have to cancel out some of the wins. (The Giants tendency to be streaky is imo related to this). To me it shows a guy who is above average through his career and the best around when it comes to clutch play with the game on the line. Now here is a list of things that ONLY Eli Manning can say: Things Eli Manning has done that no other QB in the history of the NFL can claim. - Won 5 road playoff games - Completed 100 passes in a postseason (106 in 2011) - Thrown for 1,200 or more yards in a postseason (1,219 in 2011) - Led two game winning TD drives in the final 4 minutes of a Super Bowl - Win a Super Bowl with the 32nd ranked rushing offense - Lead at least 21 4th quarter comebacks (including playoffs) in his first 8 seasons (Tom Brady is 2nd with 20) - Beaten Tom Brady and Bill Belichick 2x in the postseason - Win 2 road playoff games at Lambeau field - Win at least 6 playoff games against teams who went 13-3 or better - Win 10 road games in a single season (including playoffs, 2007) - Win a Super Bowl with a defense that allowed 400 or more points - Win a Super Bowl while accounting for over 80% of your teams offense (threw for 4,933 of our 6,161 yards of total offense) - Throw for at least 27,000 yards in his first 8 seasons while winning a SB in that span (he's won 2, and 2 MVPs), only 4 other QB have thrown for 27,000+ in their first 8 seasons, none of them won a SB though. - Thrown 2 go ahead TD's in the 4th quarter of a Super Bowl - 15 4th quarter TD's in a single season - Thrown for 4900 yards or more in a single season and gone on to win the Super Bowl -Beat an 18-0 team in the Super Bowl -Eli stands alone in football lore as the only QB in the Super Bowl to lead his team down the field, with less than 2 minutes to play, for a TD when anything less than a TD meant certain defeat. The only QB in NFL history to do that. -Name me a QB that has on one single occasion driven his team down to win in OT of the championship game and then engineered a comeback win in the Super Bowl with less than 2 minutes to play. You cant, aside from Eli Manning, who has done it twice. Eli Manning and Dan Marino are the only two QB's to throw for 3 or more 400 yard games in a single season. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted December 18, 2012 Share Posted December 18, 2012 So basically last year he won the Super Bowl with the worst running game in the league and the worst Super Bowl winning defense in history. Talk about doing it all on your own. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TheDon Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 Eli is an elite quarterback. There really should be no debate on it. If he's not an elite quarterback he must be the luckiest quarterback in the history of the NFL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted December 23, 2012 Share Posted December 23, 2012 And I''d rather have a lucky QB than a good one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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