The Week 7 discussion thread .

[BOF]

Seahawks @ 49ers ✓

Ravens @ Texans ✓

Packers @ Rams ✓

Cowboys @ Panthers x

Saints @ Bucs x

Cardinals @ Vikings ✓

Redskins @ Giants ✓

Browns @ Colts ✓

Titans @ Bills x

Jets @ Patriots ✓

Jaguars @ Raiders ✓

Steelers @ Bengals ✓

Lions @ Bears ✓

Now that's more like it. 10-3 on the week. Booya. Even the 3 I lost were very tight.

[leviramsey]

Most valuable QB performances of the week, ranked by Defense-adjusted Yards over Replacement (i.e. Aaron Rodgers accounted for 225 more yards of offense than a journeyman backup would be expected to against the Rams))

1. Aaron Rodgers: 228 pass DYAR, -4 rush DYAR, 225 overall (obviously the components are rounded...)

2. Drew Brees: 215 pass DYAR, -4 rush DYAR, 225 overall

3. Josh Freeman: 113 pass DYAR, -5 rush DYAR, 108 overall

4. Tom Brady: 98 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 98 overall

5. Tony Romo: 95 pass DYAR, -1 rush DYAR, 93 overall

6. Robert Griffin: 62 pass DYAR, 18 rush DYAR, 80 overall

7. Brandon Weeden: 72 pass DYAR, 7 rush DYAR, 79 overall

8. Matt Schaub: 73 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 73 overall

9. Alex Smith: 58 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 58 overall

10. Matt Stafford: 38 pass DYAR, 10 rush DYAR, 48 overall

11. Blaine Gabbert: 48 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 48 overall

12. Matt Hasselbeck: 34 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 34 overall

13. Eli Manning: 28 pass DYAR, 3 rush DYAR, 31 overall

14. Ryan Fitzpatrick: 7 pass DYAR, 3 rush DYAR, 10 overall

15. Sam Bradford: 9 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 9 overall

16. Ben Roethlisberger: 3 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 3 overall

17. Mark Sanchez: 1 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, 1 overall

18. Andrew Luck: -22 pass DYAR, 14 rush DYAR, -8 overall

19. Cam Newton: -33 pass DYAR, 24 rush DYAR, -9 overall

20. Russell Wilson: -36 pass DYAR, 4 rush DYAR, -32 overall

21. John Skelton: -44 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, -44 overall

22. Carson Palmer: -57 pass DYAR, 11 rush DYAR, -47 overall

23. Jay Cutler: -82 pass DYAR, 17 rush DYAR, -66 overall

24. Andy Dalton: -92 pass DYAR, 0 rush DYAR, -92 overall

25. Christian Ponder: -102 pass DYAR, -2 rush DYAR, -104 overall

26. Joe Flacco: -138 pass DYAR, 9 rush DYAR, -129 overall

27. Chad Henne: -133 pass DYAR, -7 rush DYAR, -140 overall

5 most valuable RBs

1. Frank Gore: 59 rush DYAR, 25 receiving DYAR, 83 overall

2. LaRod Stevens-Howling: 44 rush DYAR, 15 receiving DYAR, 59 overall

3. Chris Johnson: 53 rush DYAR, -5 receiving DYAR, 48 overall

4. Adrian Peterson: 53 rush DYAR, -8 receiving DYAR, 45 overall

5. Marshawn Lynch: 37 rush DYAR, 1 receiving DYAR, 36 overall

5 most valuable WR/TE

1. Randall Cobb: 73 DYAR

2. Jordy Nelson: 67 DYAR

3. Lance Moore: 61 DYAR

4. Andre Roberts: 48 DYAR

5. Dustin Keller: 45 DYAR

[kurtsimonw]

Seahawks @ 49ers

Ravens @ Texans

Packers @ Rams

Cowboys @ Panthers

Saints @ Bucs

Cardinals @ Vikings

Redskins @ Giants (We've got no hope, etc. etc.)

Browns @ Colts

Titans @ Bills

Jets @ Patriots

Jaguars @ Raiders

Steelers @ Bengals

Lions @ Bears

Only 2 wrong and even that included a 'predict-Giants-to-lose-so-they-win' selection.

[leviramsey]

New DVOA ratings

This week sees a little bit more churn on the top of the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, and San Francisco re-takes the top spot. Green Bay remains number two, while the New York Giants drop to third after their close victory over Washington. Chicago is fourth and Denver fifth, still the top team in the AFC despite a 3-3 record. (Vince Verhei talks about that in an ESPN Insider piece here.) The split between the NFC and the AFC got even worse this week, and as of this week the NINE lowest teams in DVOA are all AFC teams. There's a huge gap between "good" and "bad" AFC teams. The Steelers and Jets are 16th and 17th. Then teams 18 through 23 are all NFC, and teams 24 through 32 are all AFC.

Last year, offense reigned in the NFL, as the season was mostly dominated by three teams -- New England, New Orleans, and Green Bay -- that had historically great offense but poor defense. Things aren't quite as imbalanced this season, because the top offenses aren't playing at that same historically great level, but it is still worth noting that the five best offensive teams make up five of the top six teams by total DVOA: the teams mentioned above, plus New England but minus Chicago. Unlike last year, however, these teams with strong offense do not all have terrible defense. San Francisco, Green Bay, New York, and Denver all have above-average defenses this season, and even the Patriots are a reasonable 20th in defensive DVOA (which splits into 29th against the pass and fourth against the run).

Chicago is the big exception, the team near the top of this year's ratings that is built on defense and special teams. Chicago has had defensive DVOA of -15% or better in every game this year, and it's time to start tracking where the Bears stand historically. It's particularly interesting to do so since this is the first year we'll be tracking a team's historical ranking using the new DVOA that is normalized for each season's offensive level. The Bears end up with the fifth-best defense tracked by DVOA since 1991, and the best defense since the 2002 Bucs.

Best defensive DVOA as of week 7, 1991-2012

1991 Saints: -49%

1991 Eagles: -43%

2002 Bucs: -39%

1997 49ers: -37%

2012 Bears: -35%

2011 Ravens: -34%

1993 Steelers: -34%

1996 Packers: -33%

2000 Dolphins: -30%

1994 Cowboys: -29%

Yes, two teams from 1991 are that far ahead even though the 1991 numbers league-wide are normalized to 0%. Much like three offenses were dramatically better than everyone else in 2011, so too were three defenses (New Orleans, Philadelphia, and Washington) dramatically better than everyone else in 1991.

The Bears are imbalanced on offense, one of a number of teams that are much better running the ball than passing the ball, or vice versa. Right now the Bears rank 10th in offensive DVOA running, but 22nd passing. Other teams with a big split include:

Green Bay is first passing, 17th rushing

Atlanta is ninth passing, 24th rushing

Pittsburgh is sixth passing, 29th rushing

Oakland -- this one is a colossal surprise, given the presence of Darren McFadden -- is 12th passing and dead last rushing

Baltimore is 19th passing, third rushing

Buffalo is 23rd passing, sixth rushing

Seattle is 21st passing, seventh rushing

Carolina is 24th passing, 11th rushing

What about defenses with a big split like New England? Other teams include:

Atlanta is fifth against the pass, 27th against the run

Tampa Bay is 20th against the pass, first against the run

Detroit is 22nd against the pass, 12th against the run

San Diego is 21st agaisnt the pass, eighth against the run

1. 49ers: +35% (#5 offense, #4 defense, #23 special)

2. Packers: +34% (#3 offense, #10 defense, #17 special)

3. Giants: +32% (#2 offense, #14 defense, #11 special)

4. Bears: +31% (#24 offense, #1 defense, #5 special)

5. Broncos: +31% (#4 offense, #6 defense, #19 special)

6. Patriots: +28% (#1 offense, #20 defense, #10 special)

7. Texans: +24% (#9 offense, #3 defense, #31 special)

8. Seahawks: +22% (#22 offense, #2 defense, #12 special)

9. Falcons: +18% (#10 offense, #11 defense, #9 special)

10. Dolphins: +12% (#18 offense, #7 defense, #8 special)

11. Vikings: +10% (#16 offense, #12 defense, #2 special)

12. Ravens: +5% (#12 offense, #23 defense, #3 special)

13. Redskins: +2% (#7 offense, #19 defense, #30 special)

14. Rams: +1% (#21 offense, #9 defense, #24 special)

15. Lions: -2% (#8 offense, #18 defense, #32 special)

16. Steelers: -4% (#11 offense, #22 defense, #22 special)

17. Jets: -4% (#26 offense, #15 defense, #1 special)

18. Cowboys: -4% (#13 offense, #16 defense, #26 special)

19. Saints: -6% (#6 offense, #32 defense, #14 special)

20. Bucs: -6% (#15 offense, #13 defense, #29 special)

21. Cardinals: -7% (#30 offense, #5 defense, #18 special)

22. Eagles: -10% (#27 offense, #8 defense, #27 special)

23. Panthers: -11% (#23 offense, #17 defense, #25 special)

24. Chargers: -15% (#25 offense, #21 defense, #15 special)

25. Bengals: -16% (#20 offense, #28 defense, #6 special)

26. Bills: -17% (#17 offense, #31 defense, #4 special)

27. Raiders: -19% (#19 offense, #24 defense, #28 special)

28. Colts: -22% (#14 offense, #29 defense, #20 special)

29. Browns: -24% (#28 offense, #25 defense, #7 special)

30. Jaguars: -37% (#31 offense, #26 defense, #13 special)

31. Titans: -38% (#29 offense, #30 defense, #16 special)

32. Chiefs: -45% (#32 offense, #27 defense, #21 special)

Division total DVOAs

NFC North: +74.0% (on average: about as good as the Falcons)

NFC West: +50.7% (on average: about as good as the Dolphins)

NFC East: +18.8% (on average: about as good as the Ravens)

AFC East: +18.1% (on average: about as good as the Ravens)

NFC South: -4.9% (on average: about as good as the Lions)

AFC North: -38.8% (on average: about as good as the Eagles)

AFC West: -47.3% (on average: about as good as the Panthers)

AFC South: -72.9% (on average: about as good as the Raiders)

[leviramsey]

QBs on Facebook meet Goodell

[Tegis]