leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 Graham sets a single-season record for receiving yards by a TE, only for Gronkowski to beat him later that afternoon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 And in other TE news, Tony Gonzalez is coming back next year for the Falcons. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Can't agree there levi, Gronk, Hernandez and Welker are brilliant and Branch fits the Pats system well. Whenever I see the Pats a true WR would be pointless. You rarely seem to throw balls long and the majority of your big passing plays seem to be because of YAC. I also think that's part reason why #85 has been useless for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 Eight Five blocks well on running plays and provides enough of a deep threat that it opens up the YAC. That's what his purpose is in this offense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 The three worst defensive seasons in NFL history (by total yards allowed) 1. 1981 Colts: 6793 yds (425/gm) 2. 2011 Packers: 6585 (412) 3. 2011 Patriots: 6577 (411) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 For the record, the '81 Colts went 2-14 with a point differential of -274 (compared to the Patriots' +197 and Packers' +171). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Surprised one of the more recent Colts teams aren't on there. I remember they've had a few awful once in the past decade or so, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
claret75 Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Was just reading up on Skins rookie WR Niles Paul after seeing Cruz go for that TD. He was cantering alongside a full speed Brandon Banks towards the start of the season, so I was interested to see what his combine 40 time was. It wasn't that quick because of injury, but he is very, VERY quick and at 6"1'. His uncle was Ahmad Green the former Packer RB and he apparently beat his 20 metre dash record a couple of years ago. Could be a big WR for the Skins in the next couple of years! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 So with the season in the books, my final NFL strength ratings: Team Record BasePts Rating HomeAdj NO 13 - 3 - 0 287.62 110.00 2.46 NO GB 15 - 1 - 0 275.66 109.09 1.41 GB BAL 12 - 4 - 0 515.41 108.38 0.81 BAL SF 13 - 3 - 0 213.83 107.90 1.07 SF NE 13 - 3 - 0 111.30 107.13 -0.25 NE PIT 12 - 4 - 0 301.51 106.10 1.58 PIT DET 10 - 6 - 0 107.63 103.78 0.41 DET PHI 8 - 8 - 0 117.94 103.51 -1.32 PHI HOU 10 - 6 - 0 234.49 103.34 -0.77 HOU ATL 10 - 6 - 0 92.47 102.82 0.62 ATL SD 8 - 8 - 0 204.53 102.15 -0.22 SD CIN 9 - 7 - 0 54.68 101.59 -1.59 CIN SEA 7 - 9 - 0 112.85 100.91 -0.95 SEA TEN 9 - 7 - 0 153.09 100.32 -1.22 TEN =========================================== NYG 9 - 7 - 0 111.08 99.83 -1.68 NYG CHI 8 - 8 - 0 178.14 99.77 0.57 CHI NYJ 8 - 8 - 0 73.39 99.51 0.24 NYJ CAR 6 - 10 - 0 65.14 99.36 -1.43 CAR MIA 6 - 10 - 0 68.14 98.94 -0.93 MIA DAL 8 - 8 - 0 107.29 98.33 0.25 DAL ARZ 8 - 8 - 0 73.18 98.21 -0.67 ARZ KC 7 - 9 - 0 171.98 96.79 -2.82 KC OAK 8 - 8 - 0 45.93 96.78 -2.49 OAK BUF 6 - 10 - 0 132.65 96.16 0.40 BUF JCK 5 - 11 - 0 70.49 95.83 -0.97 JCK DEN 8 - 8 - 0 27.18 95.60 -2.25 DEN CLE 4 - 12 - 0 -8.37 94.86 -1.98 CLE MIN 3 - 13 - 0 15.02 94.83 -1.30 MIN WSH 5 - 11 - 0 31.93 94.82 -1.44 WSH IND 2 - 14 - 0 17.00 92.58 -1.56 IND TB 4 - 12 - 0 71.96 90.70 -1.36 TB STL 2 - 14 - 0 47.01 90.05 -1.56 STL Home advantage: 2.52 * BasePts are awarded (or deducted) per-game (by a mechanism too complicated to explain... ) * Rating is calculated based on BasePts, opponents BasePts, then adjusted based on scores of games played and on a modified Elo rating * Home Adjustment is fairly new and measures the extent to which individual teams over/underperform at home relative to a "normal" NFL team (so the Giants have a net home advantage of less than a point relative to a neutral field) * Ratings are calculated over the whole regular season and over the past four weeks (the past four week rating holds, at the moment, half the weight of the whole regular season rating)... this recent form rating is why, for instance, the Broncos are rated so low (1-3 in their last 4, only victory over the also reeling Bears) and the Eagles are rated so high. An expected average margin of victory/defeat can be calculated (from the home team's perspective) as: home_rating + home_advantage + home_adjustment - away_rating Thus I'm saying: Texans over Bengals by 3.5 Saints over Lions by 11 Falcons over Giants by 2 Steelers over Broncos by 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 The P. Manning to the Jets for a king's ransom in draft picks rumors are gathering steam... The wankfest over Peyton and Eli sharing a stadium (I can already see the **** TV commercials with Peyton bunking at Eli's house) will be absolutely unbearable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'd be surprised if he wanted to be the 2nd rate brother on the 2nd rate team. Would be an awful move for the Jets. The problem is the Oline, not the QB. Of course Peyton is a huge upgrade on Sanchez, but it doesn't seem worth losing your opportunity to solve your problems in order to improve something that's not a problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 The P. Manning to the Jets for a king's ransom in draft picks rumors are gathering steam... The wankfest over Peyton and Eli sharing a stadium (I can already see the **** TV commercials with Peyton bunking at Eli's house) will be absolutely unbearable. Would be amusing, but I wonder if Peyton would go to New York as it might be treading on his brothers turf. If he is traded then he will dictate where too and I think the Colts would owe him at least that. I doubt they send him within the AFC though which means perhaps the short list of potential destinations could be: Washington and Philli from the East but I doubt he goes into the same division to compete directly with Eli. Tampa wouldn't pay him and the offense really isn't there. Chicago I doubt it but the Vikings could do as a dome team and all. Most teams in the AFC West could use him and I think Arizona could be a good spot. Or even the 49ers, imagine Peyton with that defense! Alex Smith is a free agent also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 I've run my AFC playoff simulations... [table] [row][mcol]Make AFCCG[mcol]Win AFCCG [mrow]Patriots[col]61%[col]36% [mrow]Ravens[col]62[col]32 [mrow]Texans[col]26[col]11 [mrow]Broncos[col]4[col]1 [mrow]Steelers[col]36[col]17 [mrow]Bengals[col]11[col]3 [/table] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kurtsimonw Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I'll go Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 A thought occurred to me while running the simulations: Why not re-seed after the wild card round, eliminating the division-winner seeding priority over wild cards? Of the twelve AFC/NFC #4 seeds in the past 4 seasons, only the 2006 Patriots, 2006 Seahawks, and 2009 Bengals had an equal or better W-L record than both wild cards in their conference. I can understand the argument that division winners should be rewarded with home playoff games and I'm not proposing to change that. All I'm proposing is to allow a wildcard team who wins their playoff game to move above a division winner who also won their wildcard game. The case in the AFC is complicated by Tebow, but in the case of the NFC, if the Lions and Giants both win this weekend, the Lions go to GB and the Giants go to SF; there's a case to be made that the Lions should be seeded ahead of the Giants. Trivia: half of the 12 teams that made the playoffs last year (Jets, Colts, Chiefs, Eagles, Bears, and Seahawks) failed to make the playoffs this year; the ratio of playoff teams to the league is roughly the same as the top 7 in the PL, so this is comparable to 4 of the clubs that finished top 7 one season finishing eighth or below the next (and this isn't an artifact of cup weirdness). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 [table] [row][mcol]Make NFCCG[mcol]Win NFCCG [mrow]Packers[col]66%[col]37% [mrow]49ers[col]62[col]34 [mrow]Saints[col]28[col]15 [mrow]Giants[col]14[col]4 [mrow]Falcons[col]16[col]5 [mrow]Lions[col]14[col]5 [/table] Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 And to win the Super Bowl Packers: 19% 49ers: 18% Patriots: 17% Ravens: 16% Steelers: 10% Saints: 9% Texans: 5% Falcons: 3% Giants: 1% Lions: 1% Bengals: 1% Broncos: less than 0.5% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BerniesElbow Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 Browns are rumored to be very interested in Matt Flynn. Stay tuned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
kkr Posted January 2, 2012 Share Posted January 2, 2012 I think he could be a great franchise QB, youd need to get a few playmakers around him though. Id imagine Holmgren has a huge hardon for Flynn so that move would make sense. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
leviramsey Posted January 2, 2012 VT Supporter Share Posted January 2, 2012 Putting some [possibly mythical, in case the authorities are reading this ] money where my mouth is, by trading this market on betmaker: Laying 20 units of Patriots to win Super Bowl @ +480 (I'm risking 96 units to hopefully win 20 if the Patriots do not win the Super Bowl) Laying 20 units of Saints to win Super Bowl @ +560 (risking 112 units to win 20) Laying 40 units of Packers to win Super Bowl @ +209 (risking 84 units to win 40) So if a team that's not the Patriots, Saints, or Packers wins the Super Bowl (e.g. a team with a defense), I'm up 80 units (less some commission). [table] [mrow]Patriots win SB[col]lose 36 units [mrow]Saints win SB[col]lose 52 units [mrow]Packers win SB[col]lose 44 units [mrow]Field[col]win 78.4 units [/table] (net of 2% commission) Going on my chances above, that's about a 24 unit expected profit from a 292 unit investment, for a 1-month ROI of 8.2%. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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