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ml1dch

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Everything posted by ml1dch

  1. Personally I can't really understand the calls for a ceasefire without any further discussion about how you go about getting two sides, neither of whom want one and one of whom you have no diplomatic relations with or leverage over to do that thing you're calling for. Otherwise it's as relevant as just calling for world peace. It's a noble objective, but not a solution to what's actually happening. I think the whole thing would be much easier to discuss if there was an assumed "Obviously I would like both sides to stop trying to kill each other" at the top of every comment.
  2. Because "ceasefire" in the terms being discussed is only realistically a request for one side to stop. If both sides were happy to stop trying to kill each other, then there wouldn't be discussion. But given Hamas have explicitly said that they won't er...cease firing, there's not really much point in asking for one is there? There are no diplomatic avenues to pursue that will cause them to stop firing rockets at Israel. So it's not a case of objecting to it, it's a case of understanding that it's not an option that is on the table, outside of making people feel better about themselves by calling for it as a solution.
  3. Not many cash donations, but lots of flights for Labour MPs to go to Israel, including about half the shadow cabinet. He mainly funds the Labour Together think tank, to whom he's given around £360,000 over the last few years. That's what a bit of Googling tells me. No idea whether this information supports or refutes the idea that Labour's perfectly reasonable position is a consquence of its leader being in hoc to the machinations of the state of Israel.
  4. Excited to see how the likes of Henderson and Maguire get on. Very excited.
  5. Some excellent ones in the thread. Craig Gardner's jumped out particularly.
  6. Gaza Public Opinion Polls, 14th November 2023 Makes pretty bleak reading. For example:
  7. Nope. If it were, ditching Braverman was the last thing they would have done. They'd be leaning into her rhetoric rather than trying to distance themselves from it.
  8. Isn't the two problems with this position (a) what happens to the Israeli hostages currently in Palestine, and (b) haven't Hamas explicitly said that they don't want a ceasefire and want to carry on firing rockets at Israel? If a "ceasefire" happens, what is the correct course of action when Hamas don't er....cease firing? edit: there's a possibility that this is for a different thread.
  9. I suspect it's that because it's a lot of people have talked themselves into believing that anyone who didn't like Corbyn is automatically "right wing" and that's why they didn't like Corbyn. And it's then a shock to learn that all these fairly normal, left-wing people who hold normal, left-wing opinions actually are pretty comfortable voting for fairly normal, left-wing positions.
  10. Phillips could have called for the nuclear destruction of Palestine and she would retain Yardley at the next election. I'm sure that it'll make her constituency life easier by going down this route, but risk of losing her seat isn't something that would have needed to enter her calculations.
  11. Although to be fair, it's not a million miles away from what more reputable companies are giving. This is post-Braverman / Cameron, so looks like it's a gamble that isn't paying off yet. Which is good.
  12. I agree. Putting aside the topic of last night's amendments (very big thing to put aside, I appreciate) from a Westminster perspective I don't really blame anyone for what they did. Sensible politicking from the SNP, trying to create divisions in their biggest electoral danger. Understandable response from Labour, laying their own (perfectly reasonable) amendment. Sensible politicking from the Tories in not voting for that (even though it's basically their own position) to help create divisions in their biggest electoral danger, as if they'd voted for it and the Labour amendment passed then the SNP one wouldn't even have been moved. No issue with the Labour MPs who wanted to vote for the SNP amendment. No issue with the shadow front-benchers losing their jobs over it.
  13. Jess Phillips is Yardley, Shabana Mahmood is Ladywood. And you're right that ethnoreligious profile of their constituency is a guide to how their MP might have voted - but it's going to be a mixing pot of doing what they think is right, electoral expedience and genuinely trying to represent the opinions of their constituents in parliament. In what proportion of each probably depends on the MP. Incidentally, I'm pretty sure that Jess Phillips could wear an "I Netanyahu" t-shirt between now and the next election and she'd still comfortably hold her seat.
  14. So the next step of the plan - send everyone to Rwanda, those whose asylum applications succeed, stay there. Those that fail, have to return to the UK. There's no way that can fail, right?
  15. Call me cynical, but I think a lot of these resignations are going to end up being pretty performative. Resign, let Starmer walk away with his authority intact, they get to "have done the right thing" for their constituents and then they quietly get their job back in the next reshuffle.
  16. It's not. It's Matt Goodwin's PeoplePolling and should be completely ignored, even when it's saying something that people want.
  17. "If there's something that you want to do but it's illegal then you should just do it anyway" is a rich vein running through Toryism. Whether it's deportations, public money or sexual consent.
  18. Although, I believe the judgement also cited the UN Refugee Convention - so even if they *were* to somehow succeed with all of the above, the plan still wouldn't be lawful.
  19. My guess is that the "document with clear terms" which she refers to at the bottom of page one will probably drop in time for the weekend papers. He's SO bad at politics.
  20. I don't think it works. There are two plays that they have, and neither of them are strong enough. (a) they can try and get rid of Sunak, put a new leader in and (in their unaware craziness) think that the country is desperate for their weird fringe politics go for an election once Braverman or NE other is the new leader. This doesn't work, because it requires enough of those Tory MPs to think that Braverman would be electorally better than Sunak. And while both are terrible, they're not that stupid. So if they get 53 letters to trigger a VONC, Sunak still probably wins. (b) they could try and bring down the Government, and hope that after a Labour victory, Sunak is toast and they take over the party. BIG problem here - if they bring down the Government, triggering an election that the party doesn't want, there's no chance they are allowed to stand at said election. They are deselected and somebody who wasn't part of that plot takes over from Sunak after the mother of all election hammerings. Far more likely is just lots of unhelpful sniping for the next six - nine months, followed by an election of Sunak's choosing, him quitting when they lose and a normal Tory leadership bumfight a few weeks after.
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